FED BATTLE AGAINST DEFLATION HELPS... A few weeks back the Fed expressed new concerns about the threat of deflation. As a result, they made it clear that their desire was to either keep interest rates low/ or at least keep them from rising. While most of the emphasis in the... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TREND STRENGTHENING... Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizing. The 14-day RSI line has risen above 30 for the first time in more than a month. The daily stochastic and MACD lines have also turned positive from oversold territory. We take this as a sign that the... READ MORE
DOW CHALLENGING 9000... Of the major averages, the Dow is the only one that hasn't broken out. We think that may be about to happen. The Dow is once again trying to break through the 9,000 barrier, which was the high set last December. It's... READ MORE
NASDAQ IS STILL DOMINANT... One of the tools we use at MurphyMorris Money Management to determine the health of the market is a ratio of the Nasdaq market to the NYSE. That enables us to determine which is the dominant index. The Nasdaq had assumed a leadership role at the... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS SHOWING LEADERSHIP... During the month of May, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index was the biggest percentage gainer. The chart shows the RUT having exceeded its late 2002 high in decisive fashion and trading at the highest level since last July. That's pretty impressive chart action. We... READ MORE
KAUFMAN & BROAD BIG WINNER FOR WEEK... Reflecting continuing strength in homebuilding stocks, Kaufman and Broad was the top percentage gainer in the S&P 500 over the past week. The stock surged through overhead resistance this week on heavy volume. Although the stock uptrend still looks strong, it... READ MORE
SOX NEARING BREAKOUT POINT... Semiconductor stocks were Friday's standout technology performer. The SOX gained better than 10% Friday to lead another strong market day, and is now within striking distance of its December 2 intra-day high at 394. Since the pattern of rising bottoms since last October has... READ MORE
JOHN WILL BE BACK TOMORROW... John's finishing up his vacation today and will be back tomorrow with an indepth weekly summary article. In the mean time, here's one of our most popular guest commentators, Dr. Joe Duarte, and his Stock of the Day. STOCK OF THE... READ MORE
INTRODUCTION... While John is finishing up his well-deserved vacation this week, we are bringing you market commentary from several different analysts. First up is Robert Deel, President of TradingSchool.com. Robert and John have known each other for years and Robert is recognized internationally as a expert trading instructor and... READ MORE
BOOK REVISION... As many of you may know, I wrote a book during 1990 entitled "Intermarket Technical Analysis". I've been busily engaged for the past few months in revising that earlier work. Hopefully, the newer version will be available later this year. The main reason for... READ MORE
STRONG DOLLAR POLICY IS OVER... Given its weak trend for over a year, we've suspected that the government was allowing the dollar to fall to stem deflationary tendencies and to create a little inflation. Treasury Secretary Snow's comments over the weekend appeared to support the view... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS AND STOCKS ARE DIVERGING... Throughout the three-year bear market, stock prices and bond yields have been moving together (which means that bond prices have been rising while stock prices have been falling). Since the start of April, however, bond yields and stocks have been moving in opposite directions... READ MORE
DOLLAR FALL IS TROUBLING, BUT IS GOOD FOR GOLD... Probably the biggest story of the week was the tumble in the dollar to a four-year low. Although most of the attention has been focused on the rising Euro, the fact is the dollar fell against virtually every other currency as... READ MORE
FED FINALLY WORRIED ABOUT DEFLATION... They didn't actually use the dreaded "d" word (deflation). But the Fed has finally started to worry about "an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation". With the Fed's favorite inflation gauge hovering around a 40-year low at 1%... READ MORE
ENERGY STOCKS SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP... In a mildly down market, energy stocks were the top gainers. The Oil Service Index (OSX) has risen to the highest level in more than two months. It's relative strength line has been weak, but may be turning up. The AMEX Oil Index... READ MORE
RESISTANCE LEVELS BROKEN... Last Friday, we showed three charts that were testing resistance barriers. This week all of the resistance barriers we showed have been broken. The Nasdaq Composite has cleared its January high and is now challenging the high hit near the end of November. The Bank Index has... READ MORE
DOLLAR HITS FOUR YEAR LOW -- GOLD JUMPS $5... One of the intermarket principles we follow is that a weaker dollar usually translates into higher gold prices. The Dollar Index dropped to the lowest level in four years today. As a result, gold prices jumped more than five dollars. Gold... READ MORE
CISCO LEADS NASDAQ TRADING... Because of its size, Cisco has a big influence on the technology sector and the Nasdaq in particular. That's why today's chart action is impressive. Cisco has broken through chart resistance formed since February. We'll reserve judgment on the level... READ MORE
HIGH TECH LEADERS... Charts 1 through 3 show three of today's standout high tech performers. Earlier today we showed Cisco breaking out to a three-month high. The volume bar shows today's volume to be the heaviest since the start of April. Cisco appears headed toward a... READ MORE
NASDAQ STALLING AT JANUARY HIGH... Although the market has shown some improvement of late, we have to point out that some stock indexes are stalled at chart resistance points defined by previous peaks and/or trendlines. The Nasdaq fits into the former category. Chart 1 shows that the Nasdaq Composite... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS NEAR BREAKOUT... The Dow Industrials are challenging chart resistance along the highs of the past month near 8500 and are stalling a bit today. The odds for an upside breakout are very good however. For one thing, the sideways pattern in the Industrials since mid-March looks like an "... READ MORE
NASDAQ HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH... Stock indexes achieved upside breakouts all over the place today. The Nasdaq Composite Index finally broke through the top of its month-long trading range to achieve a three-month high. The Semiconductor (SOX) confirmed that positive move with an upside breakout of its own. The SOX is... READ MORE
DOW LOSES 8.75, BUT ON LIGHT VOLUME... The subdued action in the Dow pretty much reflected Monday's quiet trading. The Dow dropped 8.75 points, but on very light volume. Breadth was modestly positive on both the big board and the Nasdaq. The fact that Europe was... READ MORE
FRIDAY'S TECHNOLOGY LEADERS... Technology stocks were the strongest gainers on Thursday -- and for the entire week. Two of Thursday's biggest gainers were Broadcom and Nokia. Both reported good earnings and were rewarded for it. Broadcom gapped through its 200- day average and its March high.... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADS BOUNCE... Our last update on Monday talked about the need for the Nasdaq to start showing some upside leadership. We got some of that yesterday -- and again this morning. The fact that the Nasdaq 100 is pulling the Nasdaq Composite higher is good news as well,... READ MORE
DOW FALLS BACK UNDER 200-DAY LINE... The Dow was the hardest hit of the major stock averages today. It was also somewhat symbolic of the tug-of-war that went on within the market itself. The Dow's two biggest winners were Intel and Microsoft, reflecting buying in the technology sector.... READ MORE
FINANCIALS SPDR TRADING OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE... Financial stocks are helping lead the market in another test of 200-day moving averages. Chart 1 shows the Financials Select Sector SPDR trading just above that reistance line near mid-day. The relative strength line along the bottom of the chart has turned up since... READ MORE
NASDAQ VS. THE NYSE... Chart 1 plots a ratio of the Nasdaq Composite divided by the NYSE Index. The line has been rising since last October, reflecting better relative performance by the Nasdaq. That's usually a good sign for the market as a whole. Since the middle of... READ MORE
MONTHLY TREND IS STILL DOWN... Judging from all the media noise about the war, you'd think a lot had happened in the stock market over the past month. It hasn't. To show how little has changed, we're starting our weekly roundup with a monthly... READ MORE
GOLD BUGS INDEX STABILIZING... We thought it a good time to revisit the situation of gold stocks. We're using the AMEX Gold Bugs Index for this analysis, because we feel it more accurately represents the situation in this sector. [The AMEX Gold Index focuses on "unhedged"... READ MORE
GE REACHES RESISTANCE BARRIER... Two of the biggest stocks on the big board and the Nasdaq are pulling back today. We recently talked about General Electric moving up to challenge the peak hit around the end of November. Chart 1 shows that GE has reached that resistance barrier and is... READ MORE
TECHNICAL STRENGTH... In a strong start to the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 stock indexes have exceeded their 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 has also exceeded its March high. This pretty confirms our belief (which we expressed in our Market Message last Wednesday)... READ MORE
MARKET AVERAGES END BACK UNDER 200-DAY LINES... This morning's upside break through 200-day moving average lines didn't hold thru the close. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow and the S&P 500 closing below that stubborn resistance line. Although the afternoon price fade was... READ MORE
UTILITIES ARE TOP SECTOR... The chart of the Dow Utilities shows that Index heading toward its 200-day moving average. The relative strength line along the bottom shows the utilities outperforming the Dow Industrials since December. Two of the week's top percentage gainers were AES Corp. and Calpine Corp.... READ MORE
DOW MAY BE STARTING SECOND UPLEG... Yesterday afternoon's bounce carried into today's trading and is starting to look like the start of another upleg. The Dow is gaining 185 points and could be poised to re-challenge its 200-day average and the highs of two week'... READ MORE
MICROSOFT EXCEEDS 200-DAY LINE... The three stocks shown below have two things in common. First, all three are considered to be bellwethers for the stock market. Secondly, all three are trading above their 200-day moving averages, and are helping lead today's impressive stock rally. Microsoft is the biggest... READ MORE
DOW JUMPS 215 POINTS... The Dow (and the rest of the market) had the most impressive day since this rally started three weeks ago. Breadth was positive and volume was good. As we suggested earlier today, we believe this is probably the start of a second upleg, which could carry... READ MORE
BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE... The S&P 500 was the biggest percentage gainer today among the major stock averages. Its a good thing too, because the benchmark index bounced off its 50-day moving average -- and potential chart support along the 850 level. [The Dow is also holding over... READ MORE
DOW SLIPPING UNDER 8000... The U.S. stock market is following big losses in overseas markets with some big losses of its own. The Dow is currently trading under its 50-day average -- and the 8,000 level. This puts the Dow below its mid-February breakout point near 8100. Needless... READ MORE
AVON PRODUCTS LEADS CONSUMER STAPLES... Some consumer staples had a good day today -- possibly as a defensive measure. Avon Products was a standout performer. Chart 1 shows AVP surging to a new recovery high on good volume. Its monthly chart (Chart 2) shows the stock actually challenging its all-time... READ MORE