Julius de Kempenaer

Julius de Kempenaer


Julius is a CMT and the creator of Relative Rotation Graphs™. This unique method to visualize relative strength within a universe of securities first launched on Bloomberg professional services terminals in 2011 and later on StockCharts in 2014. Learn More 

Archived News

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Energy stocks on the run, watch APA & APC

Energy stocks on the run, watch APA & APC

Quick scan The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotation of the various members of the S&P Energy sector against XLE as a benchmark. As usual, there are some good and some not so good names found on the plot. Inside the weakening quadrant, NFX and SWN are...   READ MORE 

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Addressing RRG - Feedback and questions from ChartCon 2016

Addressing RRG - Feedback and questions from ChartCon 2016

From a 100 degrees in beautiful Napa, via 70 degrees in Boston and New Hampshire, back to 50 and dropping in Amsterdam. That pretty much sums up the excitement level that surrounds my ChartCon 2016 experience of last month! Btw. In case you are wondering, the stop-over in Boston was...   READ MORE 

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6 out of 10 sectors rotating in(to) lagging quadrant

6 out of 10 sectors rotating in(to) lagging quadrant

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the sector rotation for ten US sector ETFs. The new REITs sector ETF is not included yet due to a lack of historical data points. The immediate catch on the RRG above is the separation of XLK and XTL in the leading quadrant while...   READ MORE 

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Tech stocks dominate sector rotation but broader market at risk

Tech stocks dominate sector rotation but broader market at risk

The Relative Rotation Graph below holds the components of the Dow Jones Industrials index vis-à-vis the $INDU index. The one observation that immediately stands out to me is the domination of technology stocks inside the leading quadrant. AAPL, MSFT, INTC, and CSCO are all positioned well inside the top right-hand...   READ MORE 

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Bonds under pressure and SPY no longer beating international equity markets

Bonds under pressure and SPY no longer beating international equity markets

On the Relative Rotation Graph below, the rotation of various asset classes is shown against the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX). The single one tail that immediately stands out is the one of DJP (Commodities). Then there are IEF (Government bonds) on the far left inside the lagging quadrant and...   READ MORE 

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Facebook (FB) not able to keep up with XLK

Facebook (FB) not able to keep up with XLK

The technology sector, as represented by XLK, started to show some positive sector rotation over the past month and last week managed to crossover from the improving quadrant to the leading quadrant on the weekly Relative Rotation Graph. Reason enough to check out the relative technical conditions for the stocks...   READ MORE 

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Strong rotation for Technology but SPY is still lacking fuel

Strong rotation for Technology but SPY is still lacking fuel

To surrender or not to surrender? That's the question! After a nice run up in the S&P 500, I started to worry about its ability to push higher when resistance levels coming off previous highs started to act up. At, more or less, the same time,...   READ MORE 

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Tech stocks starting to look cool again, Financials not so much... yet!

Tech stocks starting to look cool again, Financials not so much... yet!

Over the past few weeks, I have argued in some my posts that the state of sector rotation would not back a strong rise for the general market. The "defensive" sectors were simply too strong compared to the, more, cyclical sectors which are usually needed to push a...   READ MORE 

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Real Estate shines, Stocks are still good, US stocks are even better.

Real Estate shines, Stocks are still good, US stocks are even better.

The Relative Rotation Graph below shows the rotation for various asset classes (through ETFs) against the Vanguard Balanced Index fund (VBINX) on a weekly basis. The picture is pretty conclusive for some asset classes but less so for others. Zooming in on the daily time-frame, usually, helps to add a...   READ MORE 

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Utility stocks are boring .... really?

Utility stocks are boring .... really?

On the Relative Rotation Graph of the S&P economic sectors (GICS I), Utilities is one of the leading sectors as measured by the JdK RS-Ratio. As described in my last RRG blog on US sectors, the fact that Utility stocks and Staples are leading the current sector rotation,...   READ MORE 

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Staples and Utilities in the lead, what does that tell you?

Staples and Utilities in the lead, what does that tell you?

Over the past few weeks markets, in general, experienced a lot of volatility and a lot of comments have are focussing on the general state and direction of the broader market indices around the world. In my last blog about US sector rotation, the conclusion was that the relative rotation...   READ MORE 

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BrExit did not stop VZ from breaking to new highs

BrExit did not stop VZ from breaking to new highs

When you look at the Relative Rotation Graph (below) holding the members of the Dow Jones Industrials index without knowing what date the snapshot was taken you would not be able to tell that a major historical event had just happened.... Obviously, I am talking about the surprising outcome of...   READ MORE 

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How to show "currency rotation" on a Relative Rotation Graph.

How to show "currency rotation" on a Relative Rotation Graph.

Currencies or Forex are a strange beast in financial markets. The FX market is the biggest in the world with trillions of dollars (worth) traded around the clock but no central marketplace. There is no such thing as the 'New York Currency Exchange' or the 'European Currency...   READ MORE 

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Commodities (DJP) on the move?

Commodities (DJP) on the move?

The rotational pattern of the various asset classes on a Relative Rotation Graphs is showing interesting patterns at the moment. The RRG below holds a number of ETFs that cover Equities, Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds, High Yield Bonds, Real-Estate and Commodities. The benchmark is VBINX, the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund...   READ MORE 

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FCX and NEM drive Materials (XLB) sector. Next up; FMC

FCX and NEM drive Materials (XLB) sector. Next up; FMC

The Relative Rotation Graph below holds the constituents of the Materials sector (XLB) and shows the relative rotation of these stocks against XLB. FCX and NEM stand out on this chart, way out to the right, indicating that they are the two stocks with the strongest relative trends at the...   READ MORE 

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US sector rotation on the move, not supporting a rise in $SPX

US sector rotation on the move, not supporting a rise in $SPX

The last RRG blog on US sector rotation dates back to late March, about six weeks ago. Since that post "Bad health (care) for XLV" some of the rotations in play continued while others were not able to maintain their expected rotational paths and moved the other way....   READ MORE 

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Trouble in Tech but opportunities in Energy

Trouble in Tech but opportunities in Energy

This Relative Rotation Graph holds the constituents of the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU) and shows the position and movement of their relative trends against $INDU and each other. In this article, I will focus on the movements in the technology- and the energy sectors and briefly touch on financials....   READ MORE 

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Strong rotation for commodities, SPY and IEF (ratio) under threat

Strong rotation for commodities, SPY and IEF (ratio) under threat

The Relative Rotation Graph below shows the rotational picture for a number of asset classes, based on ETFs, against the Vanguard Balanced index fund on a weekly basis. For some of these asset classes, the equivalent picture on a daily basis is confirming but for others it is contrarian. Or...   READ MORE 

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Bottom fishing in the Energy sector..

Bottom fishing in the Energy sector..

The energy sector has been a very poor performing sector for a very long time. However, on the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors (ETFs), XLE is now way up inside the improving quadrant and heading right towards leading. This makes it a good sector to dissect on an individual...   READ MORE 

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Bad Health (care) for XLV

Bad Health (care) for XLV

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows us the relative movement of the various sectors against the benchmark (SPY) and against each other and in this way visualizes the current sector rotation in the US equity market. The RRG below shows the ETFs covering the major sectors of the...   READ MORE 

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Getting in (f)LOW(serve)

Getting in (f)LOW(serve)

FLS is a stock that has been pretty much off the radar for two years as a potential long candidate, but this looks to be changing now! After breaking out of an almost perfect symmetrical triangle in 2014, FLS trended lower until the beginning of this year, when a low...   READ MORE 

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Weak relative rotation for PFE, CAT expected to keep on truckin'

Weak relative rotation for PFE, CAT expected to keep on truckin'

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($INDU). The rotational patterns of the individual stocks vary widely. The RRG shows you where the opportunities are but, maybe even more important, also shows you the threats. Summary * VZ leads the (relative)...   READ MORE 

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Something cooking in commodities?

Something cooking in commodities?

We live in interesting times... or maybe I should say: We live in confusing times.... Because, really, markets are throwing some serious curve balls here and there. It is time to look at some asset class rotations again. The Relative Rotation Graph shows the rotation of a number of asset...   READ MORE 

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Stock rotation inside Industrials (XLI) sector

Stock rotation inside Industrials (XLI) sector

The Industrials sector, XLI, itself is positioned near the center of the Relative Rotation Graph holding all the sector ETFs that make up the S&P 500 index. This means that XLI is moving more or less in line with the S&P 500 and that there is,...   READ MORE 

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Strong sector rotation inside S&P 500 suggests more weakness in Financials

Strong sector rotation inside S&P 500 suggests more weakness in Financials

Since the beginning of the year, the internal characteristics of the S&P 500 universe are characterized by strong sector rotation. The Relative Rotation Graph below shows the sector rotation over the past five weeks. A few sectors are standing out and worth a further inspection. Summary * XTL expected...   READ MORE 

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Trouble in DIS(neyland) and renewed energy for XOM

Trouble in DIS(neyland) and renewed energy for XOM

Over the past few days I have been looking at the Relative Rotation Graph of the 30 Dow stocks and its individual charts, and quite frankly I don't even know where to begin. Big swings all over the place, from +6% in DD to -9% in MSFT and...   READ MORE 

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Price target for SPY at $ 165 ?

Price target for SPY at $ 165 ?

Big bounces all over the place, not just in equities. In this article I want to take a look at relative rotation at an asset class level, of course, using an RRG lens. The Relative Rotation Graph below shows the relative trends in play for several asset classes over the...   READ MORE 

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Picking stocks inside XLP

Picking stocks inside XLP

The sector rotation inside the S&P 500 index is getting more and more pronounced. The Relative Rotation Graph holding the sector ETFs that make up the entire S&P 500 index clearly shows the recent improvement for Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP). I...   READ MORE 

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Price targets for SPY based on the relative strength of XLP.

Price targets for SPY based on the relative strength of XLP.

Wow, what a start of the new year! Increased volatility sounds like an understatement. In my previous blog on sector rotation in the US equity market, the Consumer Staples sector (XLP) popped up as potentially interesting, especially in relation to its counterpart consumer discretionary. Since the start of the new...   READ MORE 

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Staples or Discretionary?

Staples or Discretionary?

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors is once again showing us some interesting rotational patterns at the moment. Clearly XLE is showing us a very long tail moving from improving back to lagging again. Then there are XLU, XLV and XLB also showing long tails but sending different messages....   READ MORE 

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AAPL up to no good?

AAPL up to no good?

The Relative Rotation Graph with the Dow Jones Industrials stocks once again shows some interesting moves. There are a few long tails that catch my attention for a quick inspection but in this article, I want to pay a closer look at some stocks with remarkably short tails. One of...   READ MORE 

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What does a stock with an RS-Momentum value of 105 equate to in respect of time?

What does a stock with an RS-Momentum value of 105 equate to in respect of time?

Last week I received a question from a StockCharts.com user on RRG charts via e-mail. Usually, I try to answer such questions in 1-1 fashion by replying to the particular email. Most of the time this involves pointing to information on Relative Rotation Graphs that is already present in...   READ MORE 

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Asset class rotation: it depends on the time-frame

Asset class rotation: it depends on the time-frame

Summary * Commodities keep tanking * Bond related asset classes weakening * Equities leading on weekly- but weakening on daily time-frame * US equities continue to lead international equity markets * Chinese market coming back into play Quick scan A quick look at the Relative Rotation Graph holding a number of asset class ETFs, comparing...   READ MORE 

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Strong rotation for AFL within the financials universe (XLF)

Strong rotation for AFL within the financials universe (XLF)

Summary * MS weakest stock in the universe * Don't chase PSA * AXP continues to nose-dive * VTR accelerating into lagging quadrant * BK ready to break higher * AFL offering opportunities In my previous blog, we looked at sector rotation in the US based on the traded (State Street) ETFs. The headline...   READ MORE 

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Negative sector rotation expected for XLE and XLB

Negative sector rotation expected for XLE and XLB

Summary * XLE and XLB expected to turn back to lagging quadrant again * XLI improving further towards leading * XLK holding up well inside positive territory * XLP and XLU both weakening but wider rotation for XLU * XLF bottoming out in relative trading range? Quick scan The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the...   READ MORE 

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Big stock rotation among Dow Jones Industrials members

Big stock rotation among Dow Jones Industrials members

Summary * Big rotation among members of the Dow Jones Industrials Index * DD came to life surprisingly strong * CVX and UTX still expected to rotate back down again to lagging quadrant * WMT, CAT and IBM all moving further into the lagging quadrant confirming their relative weakness * UNH and AXP entering the...   READ MORE 

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S&P Leading International Equity Rotation

S&P Leading International Equity Rotation

Summary * Commodities threatening to break down yet again * Bond rally starting to fade already, halting turn for the better * S&P 500 leading in international equity rotation Quick scan The Relative Rotation Graph above holds a number of asset class ETFs while using VBINX (Vanguard Balanced Index fund) as...   READ MORE 

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Inside the Technology Sector Rotation

Inside the Technology Sector Rotation

Summary * Information Technology standing out in S&P universe * Weak rotation for HPQ, SYMC and IBM * MU not expected to reach leading quadrant * NVDA, ATVI and FIS show stable relative uptrends * Opportunities for INTC, SNDK and MSFT Information Technology positioned for strong sector rotation My previous article already highlighted...   READ MORE 

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Watch technology (XLK) for positive sector rotation

Watch technology (XLK) for positive sector rotation

Summary * Health Care (XLV) catching a cold as it is rolling over * Financials (XLF) at crossroads, needing to unlock one of two scenarios in coming weeks * Energy and Materials gaining relative momentum inside the improving quadrant, but follow-through is questionable * Utilities, Staples and Discretionary stable inside the leading quadrant * Information...   READ MORE 

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Intel (INTC) power inside!

Intel (INTC) power inside!

In my recurring cycle of blog subjects, it is time to take a look at the components of the Dow Jones Industrials index again. Once again there is a lot to see on the Relative Rotation Graph for this universe. We have GS, JPM and DIS nose-diving into the lagging...   READ MORE