* Intermediate rally/consolidation for US equities still on the menu * Test of the lows is likely first * Emerging markets continue to look vulnerable * Gold showing strong technical signs The Intermediate Rally/trading range The intermediate rally possibilities, which I have been discussing for several weeks, is still a probability. That’... READ MORE
* Five days of Armageddon * Does the British market still lead the US market Five Days of Armageddon For some time, I have been drawing your attention to the fact that many intermediate indicators have been flashing buy signals that even in primary bear markets have triggered some kind of a... READ MORE
* World breadth series signal that global equities are ready to advance * Dollar faces an important technical test Sometimes when the market declines, things actually improve, and that’s what may have been happening this week. In my most recent article, Intermediate Indicators Signal a Rally but Remember It’s a... READ MORE
* Monday may have been a successful test of the January low * Five inter-market relationships break out * The 5-year yield breaks down For the last two weeks I have been pointing out that several intermediate type indicators that have traditionally signaled rallies were in a bullish mode. The problem is that... READ MORE
* Global rates are in freefall * Interest-sensitive sectors will continue to improve their relative action * Two sectors that are likely to underperform The recent move by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) confirmed what rates around the world have already been doing, i.e. moving lower. In Japan’s case, some rates... READ MORE
Several key short/intermediate indicators reverse from oversold conditions Gold ETF very close to violating its bear market trendline The intermediate Indicators are bottoming Internal market action in the last week is starting to confirm the possibility of an intermediate low that I laid out last week. That’s because... READ MORE
* Dow Jones Utility Average just above its secular up trendline * 2-year yield probably gave a false upside breakout signal * Three indicators to watch for an intermediate equity bottom Yesterday at the webinar Greg asked me a question that was posed by one of the attendees relating to a potential reverse... READ MORE
* Erie comparisons to 1929 * Credit spreads worsen * 30-year bond yields break down prices break out When the fed raises interest rates after a long series of declines it usually signals a change in policy and the start of a new trend to higher rates. What happens, though, when the Fed... READ MORE
* Europe, Asia and Latin America all look bearish I am not kidding. Today I went through pretty well all of the country ETF charts looking back a few years with the long-term KST. I could find only one bullish chart as displayed here as Chart 1. As you can see... READ MORE
* Several historically reliable indicators are saying “bear” * World stocks looking extremely toppy * Shanghai may be forming a head and shoulders top At my first webinar of the year on Tuesday, it seemed a good idea to load the presentation with some longer-term charts, as they are all pointing to trouble... READ MORE
* This week’s bearish two-bar reversal threatens a bullish seasonal for equities * Airlines may be set to join railroads and truckers on the downside * Dollar Index keeps us guessing, which means the next move is likely to be worthwhile * Pound completes a bearish long-term head and shoulders The title of... READ MORE
* Home builders, KBW banks, consumer cyclicals and resources look vulnerable * REIT's, utilities, and healthcare look promising This week I am going to back off from the usual market commentary in order to focus on some industry groups and sectors that have the potential to lead the market higher... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal brings the effect of the rate hike back to reality * Broadly based dollar ETF breaks to new highs * Gold closes at a new low on expanding volume Earlier in the week I pointed out that many of the market averages had formed exhaustion days on Monday and... READ MORE
* Bullish exhaustion on Monday suggests that last week’s lows will hold during 2015 * Longer-term indicators continue to point to an overall topping out process * Small caps break down against large caps * 30-year yield at a critical juncture * Euro and yen-denominated gold complete large bearish (deflationary) formations Small year-end rally... READ MORE
* Volume starting to expand on the downside * Half a Dow Theory sell signal on the weekly charts * 30-year yield locked in a tight trading range * Dollar Index facing important test Expanding volume on the downside This market continues to be plagued with volume problems. Initially, it was a lack of... READ MORE
* Friday’s rally fails to reel in new highs * Guggenheim asset flows just above critical support * 30-year yield caught between two converging trendlines * Energy SPDR XLE completes a bearish head and shoulders A couple of days ago I wrote that a bearish two-bar reversal that had developed in many averages... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal for the S&P says the rally is over * Volume is oversold. That means volume is likely to expand on the downside. * Credit spreads challenging their bear market lows * Commodities breaking down in a very big way * This week's two-bar reversal says the market... READ MORE
* CRB Composite touches a 40-year low but is deeply oversold * Oil is also at critical support * Short-term commodity picture finely balanced but narrowly favors the bears * Dollar Index is back at its March 2015 high * Some short-term dollar indicators starting to roll over Long-term commodity picture Chart 1 shows that... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal says the market is going higher near-term * Credit spreads at key juncture point * Oil showing tentative sign of a short-term reversal but confirmation is required They say that a market that does not decline on bad news is usually ready to reverse to the upside. Over the... READ MORE
* KST for the VIX triggers a sell signal for equities in general * Junk Bonds have reversed to the downside * Dollar breaks to the upside on a broad basis * Some commodities break to new lows The corrective process we talked about last week is still underway. Sometimes the technical position improves... READ MORE
Market pullback likely in November * Rates rising across the yield maturity spectrum * Dollar Index close to an upside breakout * Commodities look weaker The short-term condition of the market is very overstretched, to say the least. Even if we are still in a bull market some form of November correction appears... READ MORE
* Market breadth on the rally not so hot * Credit spreads are a likely bell weather for equities * Dollar Index reaches critical resistance The power of the recent rally has been a surprise to most observers including myself. The big question is whether it is part of a topping out process,... READ MORE
* US Equities remain short-term overbought * Yield curves starting to steepen (decline) * All bond maturities are at critical trendlines * Dollar about to break down? * Gold about to break out? US Equities Earlier in the week I indicated that several short-term indicators such as the Price Percentage Oscillator(PPO) using an 8/... READ MORE
* The 8/16 PPO for the SPX is overbought * Nasdaq is running into major resistance * The HYG experiences a false upside breakout and a bearish shooting star The week before last, I drew your attention to the fact that since the August sell-off recent market gyrations had been truncated in... READ MORE
* The primary trend in the dollar is still bullish but.. * Broad momentum measures of the dollar are negative * Euro is caught between two possible scenarios The US Dollar Index ($USD) has been in a trading range for several months and may be about to break out, but which way? The... READ MORE
* 8/16 PPO triggers a buy signal for the S&P Composite * Resource-based stocks showing signs of improving relative action * Bonds experience an exhaustion day Earlier in the week I noted that the market was getting pretty close to the August lows but that the indicator that I usually... READ MORE
* Test of the August 24 intraday lows is at hand * Junk bonds complete 3-year top * Credit spread may be leading the Dollar Index higher * The yields on short-term treasury maturities may be peaking Testing the lows Normally I like to use the KST to determine when momentum has reversed direction.... READ MORE
It’s no secret that I have been bearish on the equity market for some time. Nevertheless, it's always a good idea to remain flexible and look at all angles, so at Tuesday's webinar Greg asked me a great question. What would need to happen to... READ MORE
* Thursday’s action represents a bearish Pinocchio bar. * Long-term indicators remain bearish. * Will Friday’s trading have a silver lining? Thursday’s Pinocchio bar In last week’s article I pointed out that several market averages had experienced bearish engulfing patterns and that a test of the lows was likely.... READ MORE
* Consumer sentiment flags a sell signal * Short rates rise before commodity prices do. That's not supposed to happen. * TIPS break key support The biggest question in financial markets this week is "will she or won't she?". The ”she” in this case is Janet Yellen... READ MORE
* S&P engulfing pattern hints at downside pressure to come * Guggenheim asset ratio continues to signal money outflow * EEM give indications of a better short-term performance to come * BOJ so far fails the inflation test US Equities short-term The recent wild swings in the market may look random in... READ MORE
* Right shoulder rally is a work in progress. * Dollar Index showing some technical cracks. * Gold breaks out against stocks. Last week I pointed out that the S&P 500 ($SPX), along with several other averages, had experienced a bullish exhaustion day. That fact, along with an excessively high reading... READ MORE
* Monday’s action suggests a short-term rally is in the cards. * Action by the S&P 48-month ROC argues for a bear market. Catching a falling knife with your bear hands is never fun. Sorry, Freudian slip. Should be bare hands! I am not going to try to call... READ MORE
* McClellan Volume Model for NASDAQ goes bearish. * EEM breaks down from a major top. * Chinese equities are right on the brink. The last time I wrote about equities, two weeks ago, I pointed out the dearth of breadth. I also mentioned that following the end of the 'bullish end-of-the-month&... READ MORE
* Momentum indicators for commodities are turning up. * The Dollar Index has violated a small down trend line. The major averages have moved sideways over the last 12-months or so but under the surface a few sectors have managed to gain in price and some have lost considerable ground. Chart 1... READ MORE
* Special K continues to point to lower stock prices. * Dollar looks set to break out on the upside. * Euro and yen denominated commodities at new lows. The market continues to move sideways, but under the surface things continue to deteriorate. For example, Chart 1 features a cumulative line derived from... READ MORE
* NASDAQ, IWM and NYSE Composite face key tests early next week. * Confidence in the bond market about to snap? * Dow violates key bull market trendline. Market tops are not usually straight up and down affairs but typically experience a trading range separating the primary bull from the bear. During that... READ MORE
* Dow diffusion indicator still on a buy signal. * Dow Jones Composite Index facing important technical challenge. * The reflation gold rallies in Euro and Yen are over. Long-term Background Last week at the webinar I came to the conclusion that enough short-term indicators were reversing from oversold readings to justify a... READ MORE
* 25-day ROC experiences a mega oversold. * Shanghai Composite rallies from 200-day MA. * In 1929 in the US and 2007 in China, stocks retraced 50% of their first bear market decline. What does that say about today? This week I am focusing on the Chinese equity market since events in China... READ MORE
* Emerging markets are on the brink. * The European IEV tentatively breaks its bull market trend line. * Copper being driven down by weakness in China. Equities “Price action on Tuesday was quite remarkable since it seemed at the opening that the equity market was about to fall off a cliff but... READ MORE