* Labor market crystal ball * What are the credit markets saying * Commodities ripe for a correction? Labor market crystal ball The weakness of last month’s Employment Report was a surprise to just about everyone, including yours truly. One month doesn’t make a trend, but two months of bad data... READ MORE
* Low momentum close to price highs is often followed by above-average declines * Failed patterns are often followed by above average price moves * Those credit spreads are widening again Last week I wrote that there were some positive short-term signs that suggested the reaction to Brexit might be overdone. Monday’s... READ MORE
* Selling climax at the opening * UK versus European Monetary Union * What are global equities saying? * What’s up with the pound? Selling climax at the opening There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market does not discount the same thing twice. Back in early June, we saw... READ MORE
* Stocks show signs of a near-term reversal * What about those bonds? * Gold showing signs of tiredness Stocks show signs of near-term reversal On Thursday, several markets started off strongly in one direction but by the end of the day, these same markets reversed course. Normally when one market or an... READ MORE
* Some short-term equity market cracks are starting to appear * Rates are starting to breakdown * Keep watching those credit spreads Some short-term equity market cracks are starting to appear In my last article, I pointed out that most of the short-term oscillators were in a bullish configuration. Moreover, they were not... READ MORE
* Market reacts to bad news with a nothing-burger and that’s bullish * NYA Coppock goes bullish * NYSE A/D Line at all-time high * Pretty well all sectors pointing north * Those interest rates Market reacts to bad news with a nothing-burger and that’s bullish In my book Investment Psychology Explained,... READ MORE
* The bullish reverse dominos * Chinese ETF’s * PEK or FXI? * What would a Chinese rally mean for US equities * Chinese short interest The Chinese equity market as reflected in the Shanghai Composite $SSEC has fallen by close to 50 % from the 5166 level on the June 2015 high to its... READ MORE
* A tale of two possible market scenarios * Are we there yet? * Watch those techies * The charts support a higher interest rate scenario A tale of two possible market scenarios I have been calling for a US equity market correction for the last few weeks because an overbought condition in several... READ MORE
* The big picture for oil prices * Oil versus stocks * Commodities versus bonds-the ultimate inflation/deflation relationship * Clean-tech starting to turn around This morning ‘s MarketWatch had a story featuring a recent Goldman Sachs report favoring oil over equities. They also had another, right next to it, saying to the effect... READ MORE
Using The Special K To Identify Major Trend Reversals: * What’s the Special K saying for US equities? * Important parts of Asia are looking sick * Gold and the dollar two diverging trends At my bi-weekly Tuesday Market Roundup Webinar 2015-05-10 last week, I had a few words to say about... READ MORE
* Balancing out the possibilities for US equities * Show me the bullish sectors * Those rates were supposed to go up but the charts say that might not be the case Balancing out the possibilities for US equities Chart 1 shows the NYSE Composite ($NYA) and the Coppock Curve. The curve gives... READ MORE
* Long-term picture still mixed * Analyzing the Short-term Picture * Global equities are still vulnerable * Confidence looking questionable again * Spot the bullish sector Long-term picture still mixed A couple of weeks ago I pointed out that several long-term indicators had tentatively turned bullish and that others were not far behind. The problem... READ MORE
* Changes in key relationships * Implications for specific stock sectors of a declining dollar * The US versus the world At this week’s Market Roundup webinar, I suggested that we had reached an inflexion point for many markets as well as several Intermarket and inter-asset relationships. That inflexion point centered on... READ MORE
* Coppock Curve on a buy and sell? * Record high indicator signals a bull market * 6/180 PPO right on the cusp of a bull market signal * Short-term overbought condition argues for a pause * Commodities breaking to the upside * Interest rates waffling During the last couple of months I have been... READ MORE
Earlier in the week I reviewed several US market sectors from the point of view of their potential strength or weakness. In this article I’ll cover the rest and then some. If you know what I mean by the term “Nirvana Template” you can skip the next paragraph and... READ MORE
In my Tuesday webinar, I opined that the US equity market is pretty close to a make or break point. While several indicators were still bearish it would not take much in the way of upside action to turn them positive. Of course, they never make it easy, and right... READ MORE
* The Coppock Curve tells us the market is at a significant juncture point * Those pesky credit spreads are deteriorating again * The US credit markets are close to some important signals The Coppock Curve tells us the market is at a significant juncture point Chart 1 features a long-term smoothed momentum... READ MORE
* A test of the bear market low for commodities is underway * Relative commodity action favors metals and agriculture * Stocks to continue to outperform commodities This week I am focusing on commodity prices, or more specifically on the Commodity Research Bureau Composite ($CRB) to see what might need to take place... READ MORE
* Consistently reliable primary trend indicator on the fence * Strong breadth * Equities overbought and lacking in volume * Rates headed lower? Consistently reliable primary trend indicator right on the fence The US equity market continues to bump up against resistance at a time when most short-term oscillators are overstretched. Since volume has... READ MORE
* World indexes not yet above their 200-day MA’s * USA indexes very overstretched short-term * Two reliable primary trend indexes at make or break points Three world equity indexes StockCharts carries three stock market indexes measuring “The World”. All of them are overbought on a short-term basis, two are below their... READ MORE
* World markets are just below key resistance * Junk bonds break through their 200-day MA. Will the break hold? * World Bond Index breaks to the upside Last week I called for some corrective action in the US equity market based on what, at the time, appeared to be a couple of... READ MORE
* Inflection point for junk bonds? * Fake out rally a la 2008? * Short-term oil rally over? Inflection point for junk bonds? It has been a feature of this bear market that stocks sell off in concert with junk bonds and oil prices as investors fret over potential energy company defaults. Not... READ MORE
* Credit spreads about to turn? * A PPO that calls primary trends * Record High Indicator The market is now starting to respond positively to several bullish intermediate indicators. I still believe the main trend is down, but it seems like a good idea to look at three currently bearish indicators and... READ MORE
* Intermediate rally/consolidation for US equities still on the menu * Test of the lows is likely first * Emerging markets continue to look vulnerable * Gold showing strong technical signs The Intermediate Rally/trading range The intermediate rally possibilities, which I have been discussing for several weeks, is still a probability. That’... READ MORE
* Five days of Armageddon * Does the British market still lead the US market Five Days of Armageddon For some time, I have been drawing your attention to the fact that many intermediate indicators have been flashing buy signals that even in primary bear markets have triggered some kind of a... READ MORE
* World breadth series signal that global equities are ready to advance * Dollar faces an important technical test Sometimes when the market declines, things actually improve, and that’s what may have been happening this week. In my most recent article, Intermediate Indicators Signal a Rally but Remember It’s a... READ MORE
* Monday may have been a successful test of the January low * Five inter-market relationships break out * The 5-year yield breaks down For the last two weeks I have been pointing out that several intermediate type indicators that have traditionally signaled rallies were in a bullish mode. The problem is that... READ MORE
* Global rates are in freefall * Interest-sensitive sectors will continue to improve their relative action * Two sectors that are likely to underperform The recent move by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) confirmed what rates around the world have already been doing, i.e. moving lower. In Japan’s case, some rates... READ MORE
Several key short/intermediate indicators reverse from oversold conditions Gold ETF very close to violating its bear market trendline The intermediate Indicators are bottoming Internal market action in the last week is starting to confirm the possibility of an intermediate low that I laid out last week. That’s because... READ MORE
* Dow Jones Utility Average just above its secular up trendline * 2-year yield probably gave a false upside breakout signal * Three indicators to watch for an intermediate equity bottom Yesterday at the webinar Greg asked me a question that was posed by one of the attendees relating to a potential reverse... READ MORE
* Erie comparisons to 1929 * Credit spreads worsen * 30-year bond yields break down prices break out When the fed raises interest rates after a long series of declines it usually signals a change in policy and the start of a new trend to higher rates. What happens, though, when the Fed... READ MORE
* Europe, Asia and Latin America all look bearish I am not kidding. Today I went through pretty well all of the country ETF charts looking back a few years with the long-term KST. I could find only one bullish chart as displayed here as Chart 1. As you can see... READ MORE
* Several historically reliable indicators are saying “bear” * World stocks looking extremely toppy * Shanghai may be forming a head and shoulders top At my first webinar of the year on Tuesday, it seemed a good idea to load the presentation with some longer-term charts, as they are all pointing to trouble... READ MORE
* This week’s bearish two-bar reversal threatens a bullish seasonal for equities * Airlines may be set to join railroads and truckers on the downside * Dollar Index keeps us guessing, which means the next move is likely to be worthwhile * Pound completes a bearish long-term head and shoulders The title of... READ MORE
* Home builders, KBW banks, consumer cyclicals and resources look vulnerable * REIT's, utilities, and healthcare look promising This week I am going to back off from the usual market commentary in order to focus on some industry groups and sectors that have the potential to lead the market higher... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal brings the effect of the rate hike back to reality * Broadly based dollar ETF breaks to new highs * Gold closes at a new low on expanding volume Earlier in the week I pointed out that many of the market averages had formed exhaustion days on Monday and... READ MORE
* Bullish exhaustion on Monday suggests that last week’s lows will hold during 2015 * Longer-term indicators continue to point to an overall topping out process * Small caps break down against large caps * 30-year yield at a critical juncture * Euro and yen-denominated gold complete large bearish (deflationary) formations Small year-end rally... READ MORE
* Volume starting to expand on the downside * Half a Dow Theory sell signal on the weekly charts * 30-year yield locked in a tight trading range * Dollar Index facing important test Expanding volume on the downside This market continues to be plagued with volume problems. Initially, it was a lack of... READ MORE
* Friday’s rally fails to reel in new highs * Guggenheim asset flows just above critical support * 30-year yield caught between two converging trendlines * Energy SPDR XLE completes a bearish head and shoulders A couple of days ago I wrote that a bearish two-bar reversal that had developed in many averages... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal for the S&P says the rally is over * Volume is oversold. That means volume is likely to expand on the downside. * Credit spreads challenging their bear market lows * Commodities breaking down in a very big way * This week's two-bar reversal says the market... READ MORE