* CRB Composite touches a 40-year low but is deeply oversold * Oil is also at critical support * Short-term commodity picture finely balanced but narrowly favors the bears * Dollar Index is back at its March 2015 high * Some short-term dollar indicators starting to roll over Long-term commodity picture Chart 1 shows that... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal says the market is going higher near-term * Credit spreads at key juncture point * Oil showing tentative sign of a short-term reversal but confirmation is required They say that a market that does not decline on bad news is usually ready to reverse to the upside. Over the... READ MORE
* KST for the VIX triggers a sell signal for equities in general * Junk Bonds have reversed to the downside * Dollar breaks to the upside on a broad basis * Some commodities break to new lows The corrective process we talked about last week is still underway. Sometimes the technical position improves... READ MORE
Market pullback likely in November * Rates rising across the yield maturity spectrum * Dollar Index close to an upside breakout * Commodities look weaker The short-term condition of the market is very overstretched, to say the least. Even if we are still in a bull market some form of November correction appears... READ MORE
* Market breadth on the rally not so hot * Credit spreads are a likely bell weather for equities * Dollar Index reaches critical resistance The power of the recent rally has been a surprise to most observers including myself. The big question is whether it is part of a topping out process,... READ MORE
* US Equities remain short-term overbought * Yield curves starting to steepen (decline) * All bond maturities are at critical trendlines * Dollar about to break down? * Gold about to break out? US Equities Earlier in the week I indicated that several short-term indicators such as the Price Percentage Oscillator(PPO) using an 8/... READ MORE
* The 8/16 PPO for the SPX is overbought * Nasdaq is running into major resistance * The HYG experiences a false upside breakout and a bearish shooting star The week before last, I drew your attention to the fact that since the August sell-off recent market gyrations had been truncated in... READ MORE
* The primary trend in the dollar is still bullish but.. * Broad momentum measures of the dollar are negative * Euro is caught between two possible scenarios The US Dollar Index ($USD) has been in a trading range for several months and may be about to break out, but which way? The... READ MORE
* 8/16 PPO triggers a buy signal for the S&P Composite * Resource-based stocks showing signs of improving relative action * Bonds experience an exhaustion day Earlier in the week I noted that the market was getting pretty close to the August lows but that the indicator that I usually... READ MORE
* Test of the August 24 intraday lows is at hand * Junk bonds complete 3-year top * Credit spread may be leading the Dollar Index higher * The yields on short-term treasury maturities may be peaking Testing the lows Normally I like to use the KST to determine when momentum has reversed direction.... READ MORE
It’s no secret that I have been bearish on the equity market for some time. Nevertheless, it's always a good idea to remain flexible and look at all angles, so at Tuesday's webinar Greg asked me a great question. What would need to happen to... READ MORE
* Thursday’s action represents a bearish Pinocchio bar. * Long-term indicators remain bearish. * Will Friday’s trading have a silver lining? Thursday’s Pinocchio bar In last week’s article I pointed out that several market averages had experienced bearish engulfing patterns and that a test of the lows was likely.... READ MORE
* Consumer sentiment flags a sell signal * Short rates rise before commodity prices do. That's not supposed to happen. * TIPS break key support The biggest question in financial markets this week is "will she or won't she?". The ”she” in this case is Janet Yellen... READ MORE
* S&P engulfing pattern hints at downside pressure to come * Guggenheim asset ratio continues to signal money outflow * EEM give indications of a better short-term performance to come * BOJ so far fails the inflation test US Equities short-term The recent wild swings in the market may look random in... READ MORE
* Right shoulder rally is a work in progress. * Dollar Index showing some technical cracks. * Gold breaks out against stocks. Last week I pointed out that the S&P 500 ($SPX), along with several other averages, had experienced a bullish exhaustion day. That fact, along with an excessively high reading... READ MORE
* Monday’s action suggests a short-term rally is in the cards. * Action by the S&P 48-month ROC argues for a bear market. Catching a falling knife with your bear hands is never fun. Sorry, Freudian slip. Should be bare hands! I am not going to try to call... READ MORE
* McClellan Volume Model for NASDAQ goes bearish. * EEM breaks down from a major top. * Chinese equities are right on the brink. The last time I wrote about equities, two weeks ago, I pointed out the dearth of breadth. I also mentioned that following the end of the 'bullish end-of-the-month&... READ MORE
* Momentum indicators for commodities are turning up. * The Dollar Index has violated a small down trend line. The major averages have moved sideways over the last 12-months or so but under the surface a few sectors have managed to gain in price and some have lost considerable ground. Chart 1... READ MORE
* Special K continues to point to lower stock prices. * Dollar looks set to break out on the upside. * Euro and yen denominated commodities at new lows. The market continues to move sideways, but under the surface things continue to deteriorate. For example, Chart 1 features a cumulative line derived from... READ MORE
* NASDAQ, IWM and NYSE Composite face key tests early next week. * Confidence in the bond market about to snap? * Dow violates key bull market trendline. Market tops are not usually straight up and down affairs but typically experience a trading range separating the primary bull from the bear. During that... READ MORE
* Dow diffusion indicator still on a buy signal. * Dow Jones Composite Index facing important technical challenge. * The reflation gold rallies in Euro and Yen are over. Long-term Background Last week at the webinar I came to the conclusion that enough short-term indicators were reversing from oversold readings to justify a... READ MORE
* 25-day ROC experiences a mega oversold. * Shanghai Composite rallies from 200-day MA. * In 1929 in the US and 2007 in China, stocks retraced 50% of their first bear market decline. What does that say about today? This week I am focusing on the Chinese equity market since events in China... READ MORE
* Emerging markets are on the brink. * The European IEV tentatively breaks its bull market trend line. * Copper being driven down by weakness in China. Equities “Price action on Tuesday was quite remarkable since it seemed at the opening that the equity market was about to fall off a cliff but... READ MORE
* Leading sectors experience false breaks to the upside. * NYSE A/D Line completes a head and shoulders top. * Dollar Index may be about to resume its bull market. US Equities Last week there appeared to be a sporting chance that the market was headed higher as several short-term indicators were... READ MORE
* Pring Dow Diffusion indicator triggers a tentative buy signal. * Net new high bond indicator is deeply oversold. * Aussie and Canadian dollars experience bullish KST. US Stocks Action this week has been somewhat disappointing since several averages and sectors experienced reversal characteristics on Tuesday. This suggests that, over the next few... READ MORE
* HYG/IEF bond confidence indicator may be peaking. * Cyclicals and financials have the ability to break to the upside. * Spider Metal and Mining and Materials less favored. US Equities The NYSE Composite ($NYA) continues to trade in a narrow range frustrating bull and bear alike. The 200-day MA often acts... READ MORE
* - Special K for the NYSE Composite breaks support * - Emerging markets getting oversold * - Commodities are about to resolve their recent trading range A Chinese leading Indicator? It’s a well-known fact that the Chinese market has been the hottest on earth in recent months. What’s not so... READ MORE
* -World Bond Index completes a major top. * -US short-term bonds on the verge of a breakout. * -Stocks now being threatened by rising rates. World Bond Index Global bond markets have really been taking it on the chin recently without that usual push they get from rising commodity prices. Monetary policy... READ MORE
* -Brokers experience a bearish two bar reversal. * -Dollar diffusion indicator ticks up for the first time in many weeks. * -Gold in dollars experiencing a short-term breakdown. * -Gold in yen and euro at crucial support levels. US Equities The market has been working its way irregularly higher over the last few... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF falls to important support. * Key bond confidence indicator at a key level. * Dollar offering stronger signals that the correction is over. Global Stocks A couple of weeks ago I drew your attention to the $61 area on the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, as I felt... READ MORE
* Dollar Index ETF experiences a 38% Fibonacci correction and bounces. * Key dollar relationships either at or just above major support. * One way or another individual major currencies look vulnerable. The Dollar Index ($USD) has been correcting for the last 9 weeks causing some observers to question the legitimacy of the... READ MORE
* Key levels for the MSCI World Stock ETF. * Asia Ex Japan and Japan ETF’s can support higher prices. * Latin America and the Middle East look the most vulnerable. Occasionally a specific price can show up as a pivotal number that provides a valuable clue as to the probable direction... READ MORE
* China, Taiwan and South Korea digesting gains following upside breakouts. * India, Russia, and Brazil face technical challenges. * The counter-cyclical commodity rally may well be over. Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the EEM, has been in a large trading range during the last few years, as you can see... READ MORE
* McClellan Summation gives a sell for the Wilshire 5000. * Bond confidence ratios turn positive. * Inflation ratios break to the upside. Trick or treat? * Bonds complete a head and shoulders top. US Equities The NYSE Composite ($NYA) has been doing its best to break to the upside but continues to vacillate... READ MORE
* Global equities starting to get overbought. * Dollar Index and related relationships break to new correction lows. * Commodities tentatively break to the upside. US Equities From now until next Tuesday the market will be under the spell of the bullish end of the month seasonal. That condition, combined with the fact... READ MORE
* -Some short-term momentum indicators weaken but are not yet bearish. * -Dollar related relationships close to an upside breakout * -Gold and silver under pressure US Equities They say that the most critical points of a flight are takeoff and landing. The same is true in technical analysis where the most critical... READ MORE
* - Confidence trying to improve in the bond market so that it can support higher equities. * - Oil trying to form a base. * - Declining peaks and troughs still in force for the Bloomberg Commodity ETN. Global Equities Throughout most of the bull market my Global A/D Line, comprising... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF looks set for an upside breakout if it can get a small push in that direction * Treasury yield curve begins to steepen * Gold shares and silver caught in an important trading range. Equities Last week’s headline addressed the question of whether Chinese equities would drag US... READ MORE
* Dow Jones Transports flirting with key support. * Chinese ETF (FXI) experiences a long and short-term breakout. * Emerging markets on the edge of a breakout. US Equities Since the middle of last year we have seen two different market characteristics develop. The first, as epitomized by the S&P 500... READ MORE
* The NYSE Composite breaks out against the S&P 500. * The SPY/EFA (US against the world) ratio completes a top. * The S&P Europe 350 (IEV) breaks out against the S&P 500. * The DB Commodity ETF is close to an important down trend line violation.... READ MORE