Thursday's action was quite positive for several sectors, as they experienced positive two-day price formations. These patterns are only of a short-term nature and usually have an effect for between 5- and 10-days, so they do not represent major signals. However, since this action is coming off an... READ MORE
One piece of Monday's market action that really stood out to me was a bearish outside day in the NASDAQ, as shown in Chart 1. A classic outside day develops after a persistent short-term rally and signals a short-term reversal in sentiment. The outside part refers to the... READ MORE
The Invesco DB Agricultural Fund (DBA) consists of grains (37%), softs (sugar, coffee and cocoa; 35%) and livestock (24%). A small allocation is also given to cotton. Chart 1 shows that this ETF began a bull market back in the spring of last year. Late 2020 also saw it break... READ MORE
The gold price zig-zagged its way down between August of last year and April of this one. Since then, it's really been in a trading range and now looks as if it is breaking out. I'll start off by taking a look at the longer-term picture.... READ MORE
The gold price zig-zagged its way down between August of last year and April of this one. Since then, it's really been in a trading range and now looks poised to break out. Whether it will or not is another question that only the market can decide. I&... READ MORE
The major averages have recently been scoring new highs for the year, strongly hinting that the post-May correction has run its course. So where do we go from here? Is the market overbought and likely to digest recent gains, or is a rally into the bullish year-end period a better... READ MORE
Sometimes, when I mess around with the charts, I discover an entirely new approach that I had not thought of before. Last week saw one of those breakthrough moments when, for the first time ever, I applied the Special K to hourly charts and came up with some interesting results.... READ MORE
Sometimes, when I mess around with the charts, I discover an entirely new approach that I had not thought of before. Last week saw one of those breakthrough moments when, for the first time ever, I applied the Special K to hourly charts and came up with some interesting results.... READ MORE
The business cycle undergoes a set series of chronological sequences, just like the calendar year goes through seasons. Over the course of many decades, economists have recognized this phenomenon and devised composite indicators to follow this progression. By way of an example, the Conference Board publishes leading, coincident and lagging... READ MORE
Aging demographics, technological innovation and an ever-expanding debt overhang are three reasons why inflation has been largely kept under wraps in the last three decades. They are still relevant, so why not extrapolate a benign inflation trend into the future? One reason might lie in the Fed's extraordinary... READ MORE
The S&P peaked in early September, but most other major averages and many internal indicators of breadth have been rangebound since March. Price action this week, though, suggests that there is a good chance this corrective process has run its course and we will see significant new highs... READ MORE
One of my favorite indicators is the Special K. It does not speak to us very often, but when it does, it's usually pretty reliable. I'll outline a few principles below, but for further reading, look hereandhere. The Special K, or SPK, recognizes the fact that... READ MORE
Back in AprilandMay, I wrote about the possibility that the tech-dominated NASDAQ had begun to lose its mojo. The argument was based more on relative action than the absolute price, as I was, and still am, bullish on the primary trend. Recent NASDAQ Underperformance is Likely to Extend Chart 1... READ MORE
Last week, the Fed announced that tapering is likely to begin later in the year, to be later followed by a leisurely hike in rates. As usual, those pesky impatient markets have decided to raise rates now rather than wait for the clobbering they know they will get later. It... READ MORE
Last week, the Fed announced that tapering is likely to begin later in the year, to be later followed by a leisurely hike in rates. As usual, those pesky impatient markets have decided to raise rates now rather than wait for the clobbering they know they will get later. It... READ MORE
Earlier in the month, I pointed out that the long-term indicators for commodities were still bullish, but getting overbought. At the same time, several intermarket relationships were signaling danger, which suggested some degree of vulnerability. Prices have not moved very much since then, but, bearing in mind that overstretched technical... READ MORE
Most of the time, the charts I plot are constructed from daily data. As a result, the necessary perspective provided by weekly ones often gets overlooked. By way of a remedy, I decided, some time ago, to create chartlists for key markets featuring weekly high low close and candlestick arrangements.... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the US stock market is in a long-term uptrend relative to the rest of the world. The upper window compares the S&P to the Vanguard All-World ex-US ETF and indicates a recent breakout from a consolidation reverse head-and-shoulders. The lower panel substitutes the S&... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the US stock market is in a long-term uptrend relative to the rest of the world. The upper window compares the S&P to the Vanguard All-World ex-US ETF and indicates a recent breakout from a consolidation reverse head-and-shoulders. The lower panel substitutes the S&... READ MORE
When considered in their own right, commodities, as represented by the CRB Composite, are in a primary bull market. Chart 1, for instance, shows that the Index is above its 12- and 24-month moving averages and the long-term KST is also in a bullish trend. That said, this momentum indicator... READ MORE
Back in June, I wroteabout the possibility that a major reversal in the dollar could be underway, but that certain things had to happen before we could come to a firm conclusion. One of those conditions was a Dollar Index daily close above 93.5, as that would complete what... READ MORE
Last Friday (August 13), the University of Michigan released the initial August response to their consumer sentiment survey. A sharp 13.5% retreat was recorded. The Expectations Index fared even worse, with a 17.5% drop. According to the summary report, only six of these monthly surveys since the late... READ MORE
Last Friday, the University of Michigan released the initial August response to their consumer sentiment survey. A sharp 13.5% retreat was recorded. The Expectations Index fared even worse with a 17.5% drop. According to the summary report, only six of these monthly surveys since the late 1970s have... READ MORE
We hear a lot about inflation these days and have certainly experienced rising grocery bills, as well as runaway used car and housing prices. Commodity prices are often, but certainly not always, a leading indicator for the CPI, but there are three markets that have a useful, though imperfect, record... READ MORE
This morning, an interesting chart of the S&P Composite authored by Ed Clissold of NDR Research crossed my desk. It can be seen at @NDR_Research. It is a composite of 3 historic cycles: 1-year, 4-year (post-election) and 10-year decennial cycle with an average of years ending in... READ MORE
After months of quiet frustrating trading, Bitcoin finally broke out to the upside this week. It's too early to say whether this is the beginning of a move to new all-time highs, as lots more backing and filling is probably necessary in order for it to form a... READ MORE
After months of quiet frustrating trading, Bitcoin finally broke out to the upside this week. It's too early to say whether this is the beginning of a move to new all-time highs, as lots more backing and filling is probably necessary in order for it to form a... READ MORE
The bad news is that a correction is underway and that many indicators and market averages have started to break through key support. The good news is that, internally, corrective activity has been underway for several months. Provided the bull market is still in existence (and there are few grounds... READ MORE
The US Breakout The S&P has been in a secular or very long-term uptrend against the Dow Jones World Stock Index since the financial crisis. That trend is still intact, as the ratio remains above its 2011-2021 up trendline. The primary trend picture is a bit mixed as... READ MORE
When reviewing my charts last weekend, several jumped out as being at a pretty critical juncture, and therefore worthy of monitoring going forward. A couple of them involved the stock market, so I'll start there. Two Stock Market Relationships I have always been fascinated by the relationship between... READ MORE
When reviewing my charts last weekend, several jumped out as being at a pretty critical juncture, and therefore worthy of monitoring going forward. A couple of them involved the stock market, so I'll start there. Two Stock Market Relationships I have always been fascinated by the relationship between... READ MORE
In the last couple of weeks or so, US treasury yield curves have begun to flatten. That may sound unduly technical and boring, but it has implications for bonds stocks and the economy. I'll get to the investment implications later, but for now I'll quickly through... READ MORE
This week saw the NASDAQ and S&P Composites rally to a new high, but not the DJIA, NYSE Composite, Unweighted S&P and Russell 2000. That's not necessarily the kiss of death, as these discrepancies can always be cleared up over time. In any case,... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that, since 2015, the Dollar Index has been in a narrowing trading range bounded by two converging trendlines. That period has also embraced the end part of the 2011-2016 bull market, a mini-bear and bull market and the current bear. I use the term "bear"... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that, since 2015, the Dollar Index has been in a narrowing trading range bounded by two converging trendlines. That period has also embraced the end part of the 2011-2016 bull market, a mini bear and bull market and the current bear. I use the term "bear&... READ MORE
Last week, I featured three energy-related ETFs as part of an article on the bond market, as they had just broken out on a short-term basis. Chart 1 shows that those breakouts have held so far. This week, though, I'd like to take a deeper dive into the... READ MORE
The Dilemma Between the Long and Short-Ends Last March, I wrote an articleopining that, while the primary trend was positive, the idea of rising bond yields may have been become too popular for the time being. In the intervening 2 ½-months, yields at the long end have backed off a... READ MORE
The Big Picture Before we get into the subject of corrections, it's important to make sure that we do not lose focus on the big picture. For instance, take Chart 1, which features the Value Line Geometric Average. It reflects the performance of the average stock, as opposed... READ MORE
The Big Picture Before we get into the subject of corrections, it's important to make sure that we do not lose focus on the big picture. For instance, take Chart 1, which features the Value Line Geometric Average. It reflects the performance of the average stock, as opposed... READ MORE
Gold has rallied nicely in the last few weeks, so the question naturally arises as to whether it's ready to resume its secular bull market. I'll get to that later, but first, a little perspective. Longer-Term Perspective Chart 1 plots the real price as adjusted by... READ MORE