Many internal short-term indicators are overextended and starting to look vulnerable, but need some kind of a push to tip the near-term technical balance to the bearish side. That push may have been delivered with Monday's action, as several indexes gave the appearance of some selected short-term buyer... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I posted an articlequestioning whether the tech-dominated NASDAQ still had the mojo to lead the market higher. At the time, many sub-surface indicators, such as breadth, volume and relative action, looked weak. Several charts indicated that many of them had experienced multiple negative divergences, but... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I posted an article questioning whether the tech-dominated NASDAQ still had the mojo to lead the market higher. At the time, many sub-surface indicators, such as breadth, volume and relative action, looked weak. Several charts indicated that many of them had experienced multiple negative divergences,... READ MORE
The Fed has pumped a lot of money into the system -- and that liquidity has to go somewhere. We know a lot of it has already been flowing into stocks. Now it looks like it's time for commodities to participate. So much money, combined with bottlenecks in... READ MORE
The NASDAQ Composite peaked on February 16, sold off and subsequently rallied back to the February high last week. Chart 1 shows that it just missed the earlier peak by a smidgen, whereas the NASDAQ 100 (in the lower window) did marginally take out its February high. Taken together, the... READ MORE
The NASDAQ Composite peaked on February 16, sold off and subsequently rallied back to the February high last week. Chart 1 shows that it just missed the earlier peak by a smidgen, whereas the NASDAQ 100 (in the lower window) did marginally take out its February high. Taken together, the... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has been rangebound since 2015. During that period, it has experienced two mini bull and bear markets, as flagged by the dashed arrows in Chart 1. The latest bear has been in force for just over a year, as signaled by the Index trading below its 12-month... READ MORE
The gold price peaked last August and has been zig-zagging down ever since. The approximate loss from the high has so far been just north of 15%. During that period, sentiment numbers have been slowly eroding, but not to bearish extremes, so is now a good time to buy? It... READ MORE
Many of you may be unaware of the fact that StockCharts has a small database of economic indicators. (You can find them by searching for symbols that begin with $$.) This week, I ran through a number of series to see if any could be useful from a long-term stock market... READ MORE
It's never a good idea to try and predict contra-trend moves in a strong equity bull market, because the benefit of the doubt always goes with the prevailing trend. If false moves develop, they have a strong tendency to develop on the downside. That said, several key indexes... READ MORE
It's never a good idea to try and predict contra-trend moves in a strong equity bull market, because the benefit of the doubt always goes with the prevailing trend. If false moves develop, they have a strong tendency to develop on the downside. That said, several key indexes... READ MORE
The longer-term indicators have been bullish on bond yields (bearish on prices) for a while now. However, they are now being joined by a number of commentators offering a similar view, which makes me uncomfortable. Don't get me wrong, the indicators are still pointing to a primary yield... READ MORE
Back in the opening week of the yearl I wrote an article entitled Four Charts and Four Themes of the First Half of 2021. Three of them - higher stocks, higher commodities and value starting to outperform growth - are so far on track, but my negative analysis concerning US... READ MORE
Technology, as reflected in the tech-dominated NASDAQ Composite, peaked as a group in 2000 and sank in popularity for the next 3 years. Since then, as shown by the relative graph in Chart 1, it has recaptured all of that lost ground. Now, its long-term KST may have started to... READ MORE
Technology, as reflected in the tech-dominated NASDAQ Composite, peaked as a group in 2000 and sank in popularity for the next 3 years. Since then, as shown by the relative graph in Chart 1, it has recaptured all of that lost ground. Now, its long-term KST may have started to... READ MORE
Many confidence relationships I follow have been confined to multi-year trading ranges, as investors have consistently swung between optimism and fear. The latest data show that many have rallied sharply and reached the upper region of this rangebound activity. That either means it's time to regroup and launch... READ MORE
A few weeks ago I wrote an article entitled "Only a Fool Tries to Call a Correction in a Bull Market, So Here Goes!" Okay, so we did get a 4% drop in the Dow over a seven day period, but hardly anything worth worrying about. It reiterated... READ MORE
They say that a rising tide lifts all boats, and so it is with freely traded markets. In the boating world, you can spot a rising tide with a steadily rising boat, but, with markets, the simplest approach is to observe a series of rising peaks and troughs. However, there... READ MORE
They say that a rising tide lifts all boats, and so it is with freely traded markets. In the boating world, you can spot a rising tide with a steadily rising boat, but, with markets, the simplest approach is to observe a series of rising peaks and troughs. However, there... READ MORE
The business cycle approximates 41-months between the low points of slowdowns or recessions. For the record, a slowdown develops when the growth path of the economy declines, but not sufficiently to result in an actual recession, when economic momentum goes negative. The important point to bear in mind is that... READ MORE
The Fed has pledged to keep short-term rates around zero for an extended period. That's certainly in their power, and Chart 1, which features the 3-month Libor, indicates no sign of life. There is also quite a distance between the latest plot and its 12-month MA. At this... READ MORE
Last week, I recorded a 40-minute presentation with my friend Bruce Fraser on the 2021 outlook. It's currently being featured on StockCharts TVand calls for a significant extension to the bull market. We present a number of long-term charts featuring several indicators whose bullish signals have consistently been... READ MORE
Last week, I recorded a 40-minute presentation with my friend Bruce Fraser on the 2021 outlook. It's currently being featured on StockCharts TVand calls for a significant extension to the bull market. We present a number of long-term charts featuring several indicators whose bullish signals have consistently been... READ MORE
Back in early November, I wrote an article entitled,Confidence is Breaking Out all Over, Which is Bullish for Stocks/Commodities and Bond Yields, where I examined several intermarket relationships that monitor confidence. Since then, all three markets have rallied, but a further review of some of these relationships presents... READ MORE
Prices are determined by the attitude of market participants to the emerging fundamentals. Fortunately for us technicians, these attitudes move in trends, and once a trend gets underway it tends to perpetuate. Provided it is not overstretched, we can reasonably assume that that trend will continue. It's in... READ MORE
Prices are determined by the attitude of market participants to the emerging fundamentals. Fortunately for us technicians, these attitudes move in trends, and once a trend gets underway it tends to perpetuate. Provided it is not overstretched, we can reasonably assume that that trend will continue. It's in... READ MORE
Last month, the gold price slipped down very closely towards its 12-month MA. This is not a perfect indicator, but most downside penetrations are followed by bearish action, so you could say that gold is at the crossroads. Chart 1 tells us that prices have bounced a bit since then,... READ MORE
The global business cycle is nothing more than a chronological sequence of economic and financial market turning points. One of these involves a bottoming of commodity prices, as a new bull market gets underway. That reversal occurred several months ago and has recently been confirmed by numerous long-term indicators. That... READ MORE
Years ago, before online charting platforms were widely available, technicians resorted to chartbooks published on a weekly or monthly basis and received days later in the snail mail. Using their long-term perspective helped a lot of us to appreciate that surpassing Dow 1,000 (see Chart 1) was a really... READ MORE
Years ago, before online charting platforms were widely available, technicians resorted to chartbooks published on a weekly or monthly basis and received days later in the snail mail. Using their long-term perspective helped a lot of us to appreciate that surpassing Dow 1,000 (see Chart 1) was a really... READ MORE
Two Stock Market Relationships That Have Just Turned Positive A few weeks ago, I wrote about some intermarket relationships pointing in the direction of higher stock prices. Picking through my StockCharts chart lists earlier in the week, I noticed a couple more that have only just moved into the bullish... READ MORE
Since its intraday high (set in August), the price of the SPDR Gold Trust, the GLD, has fallen close to 15%. That's not enough to qualify for a bear market under the media's arbitrary and totally useless 20% standard. However, it is enough for bulls like... READ MORE
Since its intraday high (set in August), the price of the SPDR Gold Trust, the GLD, has fallen close to 15%. That's not enough to qualify for a bear market under the media's arbitrary and totally useless 20% standard. However, it is enough for bulls like... READ MORE
Last September, I pointed out herethat the ratio between the S&P Composite and the MSCI World Stock ETF (SPY/ACWI) had reached a critical juncture and needed an immediate rally in order to avoid an important sell signal. That point has been flagged with the green arrow. As... READ MORE
* Russell 2K at a Record High * Some Small-Cap Sector ETFs Breaking as Well Russell 2K at a Record High Small-caps have been underperforming since early 2018, but, in the last few weeks, have begun to emerge as relative outperformers. We can see this from Chart 1, where the iShares Russell... READ MORE
Pfizer (PFE)'s announcement about a vaccine may have triggered a sharp rally on Monday, but its real effect was to boost confidence, which improved the status of a lot of different relationships that I follow, portending further gains for stocks and commodities down the road. Swings in sentiment... READ MORE
Pfizer (PFE)'s announcement about a vaccine may have triggered a sharp rally on Monday, but its real effect was to boost confidence, which improved the status of a lot of different relationships that I follow, portending further gains for stocks and commodities down the road. Swings in sentiment... READ MORE
They say that the Chinese economy has emerged from the pandemic quicker than the rest of the world. Recent action by Chinese ETFs certainly underscores such a possibility, as many have broken out from multi-week consolidation patterns. I last wrote about Chinese ETFs back in July,when we considered a... READ MORE
This week's sell-off has been pretty scary. However, it has not yet ruptured the primary uptrend that began in March. In that respect, Chart 1 shows that the PPO for the S&P Composite, using 6- and 15-month EMAs as parameters, remains well above its equilibrium level.... READ MORE
They say Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That arises because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics and power generation. The implication... READ MORE