MarketGauge has some pretty cool proprietary software. One indicator is Triple Play, which measures the ratio between a particular instrument and a benchmark. Triple Play reveals the true trend strength of a market based on "price leadership" and "volume power." This measure of the market'... READ MORE
Junk Bonds (JNK) rallied Friday, closing above the 50-week moving average. Then, today, JNK ran up to yet another new high since March. This is an excellent example of "Don't Fight the Fed!" (especially ahead of the Fed meeting). Until I see a shift in risk... READ MORE
In the world of large cap and tech stocks, Friday was an interesting trading day. Lots of those stocks touched down on their 50-DMA. To name a few: JD.com (JD), Baidu (BIDU), IQ, Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT). With sentiment or risk on/off gauges flashing bearish, these big... READ MORE
As my loyal readers and followers know, I have been bullish on gold and silver since 2018. Oh sure, we have had some ups and downs, but since the March low, every dip has been a buy opportunity. But my bullish stance in the metals was not always met with... READ MORE
With such divergence blaringly apparent in the market, I like to look at junk bonds. Junk bonds help us see risk appetite. Last week, I wrote a piece on JNK when they appeared more vulnerable, skidding along the 50-daily moving average you see in blue. Then, buyers showed up in... READ MORE
With Daily's recently-titled "Granny Retail Hangs Tough" and "Granddad Russell 2000 Takes the Lead", it's no wonder we saw rotation out of tech and into the matriarch and patriarch of the Economic Modern Family. However, this catch-up play is a long time... READ MORE
Last week I did a piece called "Granny Retail Hangs Tough". At the time, I noted "On the weekly chart, XRT is above the 200-week moving average, while her husband, Russell 2000 (IWM) is not." Also, at the time I wrote, "XRT is in a... READ MORE
Last night, I featured junk bonds (JNK). As it has been underperforming, I wanted to give a head's up in case it failed a key support area. However, it not only held over the 101 area, it rallied to close up .97%. With risk appetite still a thing,... READ MORE
With bank earnings the big buzz this week, here are some highlights to keep in mind. Bank earnings are set to tank 69% year-over-year for the second quarter. But what's important here is not the expectations, but whether or not those expectations are exceeded. Analysts are worried about... READ MORE
Perhaps the most incredible aspect of the market, for traders, is the ever-changing landscape of investment opportunities. I spend a lot of time telling followers that the rules have changed. The relationships experienced traders hold dear have changed. The metrics have changed. The world has changed. The younger generation has... READ MORE
The malls were high risk before COVID-19, given the number of bankruptcies of chain stores such as Pier One (PIRRQ) and Toy "R" Us. Online shopping was already leading malls to become like ghost towns. Now, with COVID-19, one would expect the high risk to go to full... READ MORE
Rare to see an island bottom. However, the one in UNG, the ETF for natural gas, had a classic one. After making new all-time lows, an island confirmation suggests a reversal of the downtrend. But that's not all. Warren Buffett bought Dominion Energy (D), a company that heats... READ MORE
While there was a big boost from NASDAQ on Monday, the "inside" sectors are not yet believing that the tech sector tells the whole story. For example, the financial sector continues to underperform SPY and tech - partly because of the lower dividends, inability to buy back their... READ MORE
What an incredible - and shorter - week in the world of high finance. Doomsday news appeared EVERYWHERE, yet did not impact the market per se. Gold however, like our recycled, solid gold art installation, held its ground. Only the metal looks like it is about to go into orbit.... READ MORE
Over the weekend, I covered the financial sector in depth. Last week, the Volcker rule was rolled back, while the Federal Reserve decreased dividends paid to shareholders and ruled against corporate buybacks. One would guess that the rollback of the Volcker Rule should have more impact, as this could be... READ MORE
This past week, the financial sector saw some fireworks. The Volcker rule was rolled back, while the Federal Reserve decreased dividends and ruled against corporate buybacks. Where does the name Volcker Rule come from? Volcker was the Fed Chairman in the 1970s-1980s. When inflation began to go out of control... READ MORE
Yesterday, we heard a discordant orchestra. Today, the crescendo that had built up in NASDAQ turned into decrescendo. And while NASDAQ sold off hard, the rat-a-tat of the Russell 2000, Retail, Regional Banks and Granny Retail sectors from yesterday, sounded more like cymbal crashing today. However, this level of volatility... READ MORE
I hear a symphony.. Only there are some discordant notes. On the one side of the orchestra, we have NASDAQ FAANG and Tech building to a crescendo. On the other side, we have the Russell 2000, Retail Regional Banks and Granny Retail sounding more like a rat-a-tat-tat, then quiet. Therefore,... READ MORE
The market will not go down unless... * The death rate from COVID-19 spikes - not simply the number of cases. * The dollar keeps failing while the yuan grows in demand. * The civil unrest surges to the point of riots, hence unavoidable disruption. * War breaks out in North Korea or Middle... READ MORE
Without a doubt, our Economic Modern Family continues to give us reasons for concern.To end the week, Regional Banks (KRE), Transportation (IYT) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) not only all failed to clear their upper ranges and moving averages, but they all also sold off to close beneath their... READ MORE
"I don't see us wanting to run through the bond market like an elephant snuffing out price signals, things like that." - Powell Powell is referring to the Fed's plan to expand its purchase of bonds beyond ETFs and into individual issues.The implication... READ MORE
Jerome Powell's talking points today: * "Millions" of people will not return to work for some time because of the aftershocks to businesses from the health scare. * Fed has not committed to the hotly debated concept of yield curve control to lower interest rates further. * Struck a... READ MORE
After the Fed announcement that they will be buying corporate bonds, the market took off. As mentioned in the weekend daily, we must go back to the stick in the mud, i.e. the NASDAQ 100 and its island top. Until the price trades up to 244.51 or the... READ MORE
After last Thursday's nearly 1900-point decline, I recorded a video for StockChartsTV (at the bottom of the page). Then, on Friday, we saw four distinct trading patterns emerge. First, many instruments had inside days or traded within the range of Thursday's trading range. Is this surprising?... READ MORE
Gold shot up, Bonds (TLT) rallied, oil flew and the economic Modern Family showed its reliability once again. After the FOMC and the super dovish minutes were released, here is the skinny of the FOMC major points: unlimited stimulus, rates near zero for at least a year and a half,... READ MORE
Are you wondering how bonds, gold, volatility, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ can all run up on the same day? Plus, Beyond Meat, Amazon, cannabis, Tesla and Oil and Gas Exploration partied like they boarded SpaceX! Well, think of it this way. Stanley Druckenmiller manned up and admitted... READ MORE
I love this photo. If you see it right side up, it looks like a piece of deadwood coming out of the tree trunk. Upside down, it looks like the head of a bird. (Okay, maybe a somewhat prehistoric bird, but a bird nonetheless.) The point is it reminds me... READ MORE
In my last blog, we looked at the volatility index. Ahead of a weekend where more protests both peaceful and violent could happen, VIX could help us see how much fear might come back into the market. Another potential fear factor is that, with all the gathering of folks in... READ MORE
If you did not get a chance to read my blog on the 1960s from June 2nd, please consider doing so. Just when the market is hitting euphoric conditions, any expansion of the protests, violence or the number of COVID-19 cases could unravel the market quickly. The Volatility Index, VIX,... READ MORE
Now that "sell in May" did not work out so well for the bears, what will June hold for both the bulls and the bears? Since the price lows that were established in late March, it's been easy pickings for so many areas of the market.... READ MORE
Pre-pandemic, once the Trump administration took office, we saw a new pattern emerge. Before the world went on lockdown, the market moved up and down (with some autonomously strong exceptions in tech), based on headlines from the President himself. But, during the pandemic, Powell became the "Headline Mover-in-Chief."... READ MORE
By the time you read this, NASA will have canceled its scheduled launch to send the first humans in space in nearly a decade. Regardless, SpaceX's Crew Dragon Capsule, with Bob Benhken and Doug Hurley (astronauts) aboard, represents a great era for the USA. Hopefully, with a successful... READ MORE
I knew that this picture would become one for the history textbooks! A while back, we pondered whether the worst of the oil market debacle was over. Currently, that depends on a lot of "ifs": * If OPEC adheres to its 9.7 million barrels a day. * If Russia... READ MORE
I have spent most of the time in 2020 analyzing, writing and speaking about the US markets and commodities. Therefore, I thought it time to explore the International ETF Country Funds. I have vetted them for you. In the latest presentation I did for my show on StockCharts TV, I... READ MORE
Tuesday night, we reminisced that, on February 5th, I wrote in a blog, "Although the last couple of days brought back euphoria into the market, with volatility hanging tough, one should be prepared for anything." That sentiment remains true right now. With volatility holding recent lows while NASDAQ... READ MORE
A warning does not necessarily have to become a full-blown sign to head for the exits. But it is, nevertheless, a warning. The last time I saw a warning from VXX or the Volatility ETF, was in February. Granted, on February 5th, the title of my daily was "Volatility&... READ MORE
Stanley Druckenmiller recently came out and said that the market has never been this disconnected from reality - and that the risk/reward has never been this bad. In an article, a journalist synthesized Ray Dalio's thoughts and research on the state of currencies and the debt crisis.... READ MORE
Last night, I wrote about the compression in the weekly gold chart. Today, gold closed green, but did not take out 162 (GLD) or the top of last week's trading range high. This is super exciting to watch unfold. Will it clear? And, if so, how far can... READ MORE
Compression is defined as the decrease in volume of any object or substance resulting from applied stress. Compression may be undergone by solids, liquids, and gases and by living systems. And, apparently, by gold. What is the applied stress in gold? First off, too many bears. Second, a relatively strong... READ MORE
A week ago, I wrote a blog article titled "The Beauty of the Biotechnology ETF Channel."I began by writing, "If there is one area to watch should the market have another run up, it is Biotechnology (IBB). "The channel lines that are perfectly parallel, going... READ MORE