We're going higher. Sure, we'll have pullbacks along the way. Secular bull markets typically test their key moving averages like the 20-day EMA and/or 50-day SMA frequently, and I'll be looking for those in the weeks and months ahead. But it's... READ MORE
Since the mid-June market bottom, we've seen improvement in a large number of areas. Technology (XLK) has resumed its leadership role in a big way, as evidenced by the following relative breakout: I believe this is just the beginning of the resumption of the secular bull market. If... READ MORE
I love earnings season. New information abounds and the stock market is constantly trying to reprice thousands of securities based on this new data. It creates periods of temporary imbalances in supply and demand, which leads to a very inefficient market in the short-term. Put another way, we can make... READ MORE
When I turned bearish at the end of 2021, I made it quite clear that I expected this stock market downturn to be fairly brief - at least in historical bearish terms. At our MarketVision 2022 event on Saturday, January 8th, I suggested that the S&P 500 would... READ MORE
Trying to predict how Wall Street might react to an earnings report is no simple task. Sometimes, a stock has a big run into its earnings report, but then sells off after delivering solid results. It's the old adage, "buy on rumor, sell on news." In... READ MORE
Every day's action convinces me more that the bottom is in. I called it in mid-June and nothing has changed my mind. This morning we got the horrible inflation news (a bit of sarcasm). Here was a CNBC headline: And if you'd like to spend some... READ MORE
One very interesting and intriguing part of stock trading is that Wall Street disguises their buying/selling and rotation, as many times the absolute charts don't tell us the REAL story. I want you to look at the absolute price action in both mid-cap growth ($DJUSGM) and mid-cap... READ MORE
In case you haven't followed my work, I was very bearish U.S. equities as we opened 2022. I didn't wait to see the carnage to tell you that there was carnage. I predicted the carnage before we ever saw it. Included in those bearish predictions... READ MORE
If there's one thing that a bear market - secular or cyclical - feeds on, it's fear. The further the drop, the bigger the spike we see in the Volatility Index ($VIX). From the CBOE.com website, the VIX "measures the level of expected volatility... READ MORE
One of my favorite ratios, and it's a very simple one, is comparing NASDAQ 100 performance vs. the S&P 500 (QQQ:SPY). History tells us that the more aggressive QQQ performs better on a relative basis during bullish cycles, while the SPY performs better during bearish... READ MORE
I tend to be very optimistic in my view of the U.S. stock market. I think for good reason, by the way, as 54 of the last 72 years have resulted in U.S. stocks gaining ground. That means only 25% of calendar years since 1950 have resulted in... READ MORE
At the beginning of 2022, I suggested that one of the biggest issues needing to be resolved was sentiment. The S&P 500 had climbed too far too fast and so many new traders post-pandemic didn't understand what might happen during a cyclical bear market. We honestly... READ MORE
I remember many years ago, I was fascinated by the fast-moving, low-dollar stocks. It just seemed like easy money. Let me give you one piece of advice. When you think something is "easy money", run for the hills. To give you a business analogy, those volatile low-dollar stocks... READ MORE
I don't think I could possibly write an article like this one without acknowledging the simply amazing 2022 performance of "Big Blue", International Business Machines (IBM). First, I want to tell it like it is. IBM has been one of the worst performing Dow components over... READ MORE
Hands down, this is the best day of 2022. There have been better days in terms of percentage performance, but considering the negative economic news this morning, it's quite noteworthy that money is rotating into aggressive sectors at the expense of defensive sectors. At our MarketVision 2022 event... READ MORE
I began studying stock market behavior back in the 1980s. It started as a result of my practicing CPA days. While auditing clients, I realized that most of my clients had consistent payroll dates that were generally the beginning and middle of the month. That's a lot of... READ MORE
I've been warning all year about this cyclical bear market and, unfortunately, it's not over just yet. Sentiment is turning more and more bearish, which is good, but we haven't seen the peak to mark the market bottom. That will take time and patience.... READ MORE
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and mine is that the issues we've experienced in the first half of 2022 will be mitigated in the second half. Until 2022, many of you I'm sure viewed me as a perma-bull. I've always said that... READ MORE
If only growth stocks could talk. You've probably heard of the "it's not you, it's me" breakup excuse. Maybe you've had to endure it. Well, in the land of stock market trading, I believe it's a quite valid... READ MORE
As we closed out 2021, I began discussing sentiment and its need for a "reset." We had moved higher for the better part of two years, and the U.S. stock market had picked up a lot of new "post-pandemic" investors and traders. Unfortunately for this... READ MORE
Let me start off by saying that nothing is a guarantee. In technical analysis, we don't work in guarantees. We work in probabilities. As I approach earnings season, I like to separate companies into 3 baskets: 1. The strong 2. The weak 3. The I don't... READ MORE
In addition to my non-stop writing in 2022 about the bearish market environment and why I believe we're going lower, I've also provided EarningsBeats.com members with some valuable historical information. Here was an excerpt from last Monday's Daily Market Report (DMR) to our... READ MORE
Ok, I was being a bit dramatic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average only dropped 981 points on Friday, not 1000. But it was another reminder that this bear market has not ended. In fact, I believe the short-term signals are pointing to much more weakness ahead. Key relative ratios either... READ MORE
While our primary focus at EarningsBeats.com is technical analysis, we combine that technical approach with fundamental analysis as well. Earnings is what we do. Prior to earnings reports, we're scouting for those companies most likely to report better-than-expected earnings and also the opposite - companies we want... READ MORE
The U.S. equity market is definitely NOT a one-size-fits-all when developing portfolio strategies. Different market environments require that we be flexible and willing to adjust to both "risk on" and "risk off" environments. I don't think there's much question that right... READ MORE
Defensive sectors is where the money is going right now. Last week was a perfect example. Check out the rotation last week: The four defensive sectors and energy (XLE) finished the week in positive territory. The aggressive sectors and materials (XLB) were lower. That's been the theme in... READ MORE
We've rallied a TON off the February low, which is certainly encouraging. While I believe it's still possible that we print a new low sometime over the next 3-6 months, the significant rally over the past few weeks should not be ignored and increases the odds... READ MORE
Perhaps the most exciting part of any trader's journey is catching that runaway short squeeze. Many traders have only dreamt it, while others have lived it. GameStop Corp (GME) is the most recognizable short squeeze stock of this generation as it soared from 20 on January 13, 2021... READ MORE
The stock market never works the way we think it should. When the news stories are bleak, we tend to think the stock market must react negatively. But that's not the way things work. Most times, the stock market bottoms LONG BEFORE we see any positive developments in... READ MORE
Rallies and selloffs can be so crazy during volatile periods, and 2022 definitely qualifies as volatile. The Volatility Index ($VIX) has now been elevated and above 20 every single day since January 18th. That's roughly 9 weeks. It comes after a year in which the VIX has bottomed... READ MORE
We've seen a tremendous rally over the past week or so across most U.S. equities, but the FAANG stocks tend to garner the most attention. These large cap growth names help to carry our major indices either higher or lower, because of their huge market caps. They... READ MORE
The prospects of surging inflation and higher interest rates hinder the performance of growth stocks in a big way. Remember, their valuations are highly dependent on future promises of earnings and earnings growth. Inflation and higher rates eat away at that future growth. And a recession changes the picture completely... READ MORE
The storm clouds rolled in during the month of December. That was our early warning sign that 2022 would likely be a very rough year. If you haven't been reading my articles over the past few months, I'd highly recommend that you at least go back... READ MORE
We saw the latest CPI report (February) released on Thursday. It came in about as expected, with the February Core CPI rising 0.5%, matching consensus estimates. That sent the annual core inflation rate HIGHER (as I've previously suggested) to 6.4%, the highest rate we've... READ MORE
Once a short-term transition from overly bullish to overly bearish begins, sentiment and channel lines can be your two best friends to help you keep your sanity. Whatever you do, turn off the media or you'll be waiting for The Great Depression 2.0. I've always... READ MORE
There's no denying it was a super rally to end last week. Any time you see stocks jumping like they did on Thursday's reversal and Friday's follow through, it's easy to become much more optimistic. But during periods of high volatility, the... READ MORE
I'm a fan of relative strength and, even in a market that's been whipsawing back and forth, leaders emerge and you need to be vigilant in seeking them out. One such group hadn't shown relative strength in many months, but that changed in 2022... READ MORE
Technical analysis pays off. Thank you John Murphy for all the wisdom and inspiration. The warning signs that I see from time to time don't always pay off and that's really not what technical analysis is all about. It's never a guarantee. I use... READ MORE
I am rarely dramatic, but 2022 is an exception. I believe we are in the type of bear market that we haven't seen in a long, long time. The pandemic-driven cyclical bear market in 2020 was a health care crisis, not a financial crisis. I wrote about it... READ MORE
It's options-expiration week so literally anything goes, especially with the Volatility Index ($VIX) remaining so elevated. In the very near-term, I wouldn't be surprised by a quick upside move to channel resistance or even to test the early February high. There's a TON of... READ MORE