One of my favorite ratios, and it's a very simple one, is comparing NASDAQ 100 performance vs. the S&P 500 (QQQ:SPY). History tells us that the more aggressive QQQ performs better on a relative basis during bullish cycles, while the SPY performs better during bearish... READ MORE
I tend to be very optimistic in my view of the U.S. stock market. I think for good reason, by the way, as 54 of the last 72 years have resulted in U.S. stocks gaining ground. That means only 25% of calendar years since 1950 have resulted in... READ MORE
At the beginning of 2022, I suggested that one of the biggest issues needing to be resolved was sentiment. The S&P 500 had climbed too far too fast and so many new traders post-pandemic didn't understand what might happen during a cyclical bear market. We honestly... READ MORE
I remember many years ago, I was fascinated by the fast-moving, low-dollar stocks. It just seemed like easy money. Let me give you one piece of advice. When you think something is "easy money", run for the hills. To give you a business analogy, those volatile low-dollar stocks... READ MORE
I don't think I could possibly write an article like this one without acknowledging the simply amazing 2022 performance of "Big Blue", International Business Machines (IBM). First, I want to tell it like it is. IBM has been one of the worst performing Dow components over... READ MORE
Hands down, this is the best day of 2022. There have been better days in terms of percentage performance, but considering the negative economic news this morning, it's quite noteworthy that money is rotating into aggressive sectors at the expense of defensive sectors. At our MarketVision 2022 event... READ MORE
I began studying stock market behavior back in the 1980s. It started as a result of my practicing CPA days. While auditing clients, I realized that most of my clients had consistent payroll dates that were generally the beginning and middle of the month. That's a lot of... READ MORE
I've been warning all year about this cyclical bear market and, unfortunately, it's not over just yet. Sentiment is turning more and more bearish, which is good, but we haven't seen the peak to mark the market bottom. That will take time and patience.... READ MORE
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and mine is that the issues we've experienced in the first half of 2022 will be mitigated in the second half. Until 2022, many of you I'm sure viewed me as a perma-bull. I've always said that... READ MORE
If only growth stocks could talk. You've probably heard of the "it's not you, it's me" breakup excuse. Maybe you've had to endure it. Well, in the land of stock market trading, I believe it's a quite valid... READ MORE
As we closed out 2021, I began discussing sentiment and its need for a "reset." We had moved higher for the better part of two years, and the U.S. stock market had picked up a lot of new "post-pandemic" investors and traders. Unfortunately for this... READ MORE
Let me start off by saying that nothing is a guarantee. In technical analysis, we don't work in guarantees. We work in probabilities. As I approach earnings season, I like to separate companies into 3 baskets: 1. The strong 2. The weak 3. The I don't... READ MORE
In addition to my non-stop writing in 2022 about the bearish market environment and why I believe we're going lower, I've also provided EarningsBeats.com members with some valuable historical information. Here was an excerpt from last Monday's Daily Market Report (DMR) to our... READ MORE
Ok, I was being a bit dramatic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average only dropped 981 points on Friday, not 1000. But it was another reminder that this bear market has not ended. In fact, I believe the short-term signals are pointing to much more weakness ahead. Key relative ratios either... READ MORE
While our primary focus at EarningsBeats.com is technical analysis, we combine that technical approach with fundamental analysis as well. Earnings is what we do. Prior to earnings reports, we're scouting for those companies most likely to report better-than-expected earnings and also the opposite - companies we want... READ MORE
The U.S. equity market is definitely NOT a one-size-fits-all when developing portfolio strategies. Different market environments require that we be flexible and willing to adjust to both "risk on" and "risk off" environments. I don't think there's much question that right... READ MORE
Defensive sectors is where the money is going right now. Last week was a perfect example. Check out the rotation last week: The four defensive sectors and energy (XLE) finished the week in positive territory. The aggressive sectors and materials (XLB) were lower. That's been the theme in... READ MORE
We've rallied a TON off the February low, which is certainly encouraging. While I believe it's still possible that we print a new low sometime over the next 3-6 months, the significant rally over the past few weeks should not be ignored and increases the odds... READ MORE
Perhaps the most exciting part of any trader's journey is catching that runaway short squeeze. Many traders have only dreamt it, while others have lived it. GameStop Corp (GME) is the most recognizable short squeeze stock of this generation as it soared from 20 on January 13, 2021... READ MORE
The stock market never works the way we think it should. When the news stories are bleak, we tend to think the stock market must react negatively. But that's not the way things work. Most times, the stock market bottoms LONG BEFORE we see any positive developments in... READ MORE
Rallies and selloffs can be so crazy during volatile periods, and 2022 definitely qualifies as volatile. The Volatility Index ($VIX) has now been elevated and above 20 every single day since January 18th. That's roughly 9 weeks. It comes after a year in which the VIX has bottomed... READ MORE
We've seen a tremendous rally over the past week or so across most U.S. equities, but the FAANG stocks tend to garner the most attention. These large cap growth names help to carry our major indices either higher or lower, because of their huge market caps. They... READ MORE
The prospects of surging inflation and higher interest rates hinder the performance of growth stocks in a big way. Remember, their valuations are highly dependent on future promises of earnings and earnings growth. Inflation and higher rates eat away at that future growth. And a recession changes the picture completely... READ MORE
The storm clouds rolled in during the month of December. That was our early warning sign that 2022 would likely be a very rough year. If you haven't been reading my articles over the past few months, I'd highly recommend that you at least go back... READ MORE
We saw the latest CPI report (February) released on Thursday. It came in about as expected, with the February Core CPI rising 0.5%, matching consensus estimates. That sent the annual core inflation rate HIGHER (as I've previously suggested) to 6.4%, the highest rate we've... READ MORE
Once a short-term transition from overly bullish to overly bearish begins, sentiment and channel lines can be your two best friends to help you keep your sanity. Whatever you do, turn off the media or you'll be waiting for The Great Depression 2.0. I've always... READ MORE
There's no denying it was a super rally to end last week. Any time you see stocks jumping like they did on Thursday's reversal and Friday's follow through, it's easy to become much more optimistic. But during periods of high volatility, the... READ MORE
I'm a fan of relative strength and, even in a market that's been whipsawing back and forth, leaders emerge and you need to be vigilant in seeking them out. One such group hadn't shown relative strength in many months, but that changed in 2022... READ MORE
Technical analysis pays off. Thank you John Murphy for all the wisdom and inspiration. The warning signs that I see from time to time don't always pay off and that's really not what technical analysis is all about. It's never a guarantee. I use... READ MORE
I am rarely dramatic, but 2022 is an exception. I believe we are in the type of bear market that we haven't seen in a long, long time. The pandemic-driven cyclical bear market in 2020 was a health care crisis, not a financial crisis. I wrote about it... READ MORE
It's options-expiration week so literally anything goes, especially with the Volatility Index ($VIX) remaining so elevated. In the very near-term, I wouldn't be surprised by a quick upside move to channel resistance or even to test the early February high. There's a TON of... READ MORE
For the past year, the bulls have been able to hang onto one argument - that the large cap growth stocks continued to outperform their large cap value counterparts, which, in turn, held up our major indices. That may not be the case any longer. The cracks in the large... READ MORE
I'm not a huge conspiracy theorist, but when it comes to Wall Street and all the TRILLIONS of dollars at stake, I believe anything goes! I especially love studying volatile periods. Are there signals out there to help us identify the REAL moves higher from the FAKE moves?... READ MORE
I receive dozens of earnings-related questions every quarter from EarningsBeats.com members and non-members alike. They usually revolve around whether "I should hold a stock into earnings?" Let me be clear that, as a short-term trader, I'd be very careful holding any stock into earnings. There... READ MORE
As a short-term trader, I've always studied the short-term intraday charts, looking for any possible advantage I can gain. One strategy the market makers employ during uptrends and downtrends is they show traders a morning mirage, which is then followed by afternoon reality. Not every day is alike,... READ MORE
There are never any guarantees in the stock market. As much knowledge as I've gained over the years, and as much respect I have for my fellow technicians here at StockCharts.com, there's simply no way to ever be sure that your forecast is the right... READ MORE
Call it a reprieve. Amazon.com (AMZN) reported excellent results last night, at least much better than what was expected. Revenues came in a bit light, according to Zacks.com, at $137.41 billion. Estimates were pegged at $137.88 billion. But bottom line EPS soared to $27.75 (actual)... READ MORE
I was bearish heading into 2022 - before the selling began - and I haven't changed my mind one bit, despite the recent rally. Counter trend rallies are normal and, quite honestly, I think the current one may have just run its course. First, the rally has reached... READ MORE
Yes, I believe we're in a cyclical bear market. I began discussing bearish signals back in November and those only intensified as we neared year end. You don't need to see a twister in your dining room to realize a storm is approaching. In my last... READ MORE
Normally, the stock market is humming along and we have indicators all supporting the sustainability of that move higher. But things aren't normal right now. It started with the rotation into defensive sectors to lead the S&P 500 higher on that last final leg in December.... READ MORE