Most of you are probably aware by now that I'm not a fan of CNBC, or any media for that matter. It's because their goals and objectives differ from mine. I want to educate. They want clicks, viewership, and ad revenue. Whatever it takes to achieve... READ MORE
While current technical conditions are "iffy" at best, I want to point out that we have just entered THE most bullish historical period of the year. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ can be broken down into 3 lengthy historical periods, in my view - the good,... READ MORE
I made a bold bottoming call on June 16th, just prior to a massive 700-point rally in the S&P 500. I didn't see the recent drop and double-bottom coming, however. Now that we've seen it, has anything changed? Are my signals still bullish? For... READ MORE
I have a feeling that most of you would say "Yes, there's no way we've reached bottom." Let me start by saying that calling tops and bottoms is GREAT if you get it right. For me, it's not about calling every stock... READ MORE
I love trading during options expiration week. It's the one time when I have a pretty good idea of which market direction would likely benefit market makers. It doesn't provide us a guarantee, but, in my opinion, does tilt the odds heavily in our favor. I... READ MORE
By all accounts, it's been a very difficult year. There were plenty of stock market warning shots fired in December 2021 and we're now paying seeing the carnage. While the current environment is dangerous, it's no time to rest on our laurels. There'... READ MORE
Of course they do. One of the key metrics in any business valuation is earnings/earnings growth. When a company cuts its forecast, Wall Street must decide whether it's a "one-off" type of earnings miss or if it's more indicative of a longer-term trend.... READ MORE
One of my favorite intermarket relationships exist between consumer discretionary (XLY) and consumer staples (XLP). It's a very quick way to see whether the stock market favors offense or defense. If the XLY:XLP ratio is rising, it's a signal to me that Wall Street believes... READ MORE
When we endure a lengthy bear market, many technical buy signals can be thrown right out the window. They don't work as pessimism and outright fear take over the market; instead, you have to be prepared for reversals based on extreme sentiment readings. Historically, Volatility Index ($VIX) readings... READ MORE
Yes, I'm very familiar with that old Wall Street adage, "Don't Fight The Fed!" But similar to the "Go Away In May" theory, I'm happy to poke holes in it. Rather than just blindly buy what the media is selling,... READ MORE
It's no secret that I've turned very bullish. I stuck my neck out and made my bullish call on June 16th -- right at the bottom. I've seen absolutely nothing to change my mind since that bottom. The biggest question to me is whether... READ MORE
I alerted EarningsBeats.com members to the probability of short-term weakness at the start of options expiration week last Monday. There are plenty of short-term inefficiencies in the stock market and none are bigger than the manipulation around options-expiration week. It's the primary reason why the S&... READ MORE
In the very near-term, we have options issues that could take a toll on key technology (XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY) stocks. If those options issues kick in this week, the overall market is likely to struggle. That will definitely be one headwind as we start the new week. But... READ MORE
I'm a believer that Wall Street will eventually overcome all obstacles and move back to all-time highs. It's a big "wall of worry", but the bulls are up to the task. The cyclical bear market is over, and we've resumed the secular... READ MORE
I'm very much in the bullish camp and have been for weeks now. However, there are isolated situations where I'd consider a short position. Netflix (NFLX) is on that list. I believe the reward-to-risk is set up beautifully right now on NFLX. Remember the horrid earnings... READ MORE
We're going higher. Sure, we'll have pullbacks along the way. Secular bull markets typically test their key moving averages like the 20-day EMA and/or 50-day SMA frequently, and I'll be looking for those in the weeks and months ahead. But it's... READ MORE
Since the mid-June market bottom, we've seen improvement in a large number of areas. Technology (XLK) has resumed its leadership role in a big way, as evidenced by the following relative breakout: I believe this is just the beginning of the resumption of the secular bull market. If... READ MORE
I love earnings season. New information abounds and the stock market is constantly trying to reprice thousands of securities based on this new data. It creates periods of temporary imbalances in supply and demand, which leads to a very inefficient market in the short-term. Put another way, we can make... READ MORE
When I turned bearish at the end of 2021, I made it quite clear that I expected this stock market downturn to be fairly brief - at least in historical bearish terms. At our MarketVision 2022 event on Saturday, January 8th, I suggested that the S&P 500 would... READ MORE
Trying to predict how Wall Street might react to an earnings report is no simple task. Sometimes, a stock has a big run into its earnings report, but then sells off after delivering solid results. It's the old adage, "buy on rumor, sell on news." In... READ MORE
Every day's action convinces me more that the bottom is in. I called it in mid-June and nothing has changed my mind. This morning we got the horrible inflation news (a bit of sarcasm). Here was a CNBC headline: And if you'd like to spend some... READ MORE
One very interesting and intriguing part of stock trading is that Wall Street disguises their buying/selling and rotation, as many times the absolute charts don't tell us the REAL story. I want you to look at the absolute price action in both mid-cap growth ($DJUSGM) and mid-cap... READ MORE
In case you haven't followed my work, I was very bearish U.S. equities as we opened 2022. I didn't wait to see the carnage to tell you that there was carnage. I predicted the carnage before we ever saw it. Included in those bearish predictions... READ MORE
If there's one thing that a bear market - secular or cyclical - feeds on, it's fear. The further the drop, the bigger the spike we see in the Volatility Index ($VIX). From the CBOE.com website, the VIX "measures the level of expected volatility... READ MORE
One of my favorite ratios, and it's a very simple one, is comparing NASDAQ 100 performance vs. the S&P 500 (QQQ:SPY). History tells us that the more aggressive QQQ performs better on a relative basis during bullish cycles, while the SPY performs better during bearish... READ MORE
I tend to be very optimistic in my view of the U.S. stock market. I think for good reason, by the way, as 54 of the last 72 years have resulted in U.S. stocks gaining ground. That means only 25% of calendar years since 1950 have resulted in... READ MORE
At the beginning of 2022, I suggested that one of the biggest issues needing to be resolved was sentiment. The S&P 500 had climbed too far too fast and so many new traders post-pandemic didn't understand what might happen during a cyclical bear market. We honestly... READ MORE
I remember many years ago, I was fascinated by the fast-moving, low-dollar stocks. It just seemed like easy money. Let me give you one piece of advice. When you think something is "easy money", run for the hills. To give you a business analogy, those volatile low-dollar stocks... READ MORE
I don't think I could possibly write an article like this one without acknowledging the simply amazing 2022 performance of "Big Blue", International Business Machines (IBM). First, I want to tell it like it is. IBM has been one of the worst performing Dow components over... READ MORE
Hands down, this is the best day of 2022. There have been better days in terms of percentage performance, but considering the negative economic news this morning, it's quite noteworthy that money is rotating into aggressive sectors at the expense of defensive sectors. At our MarketVision 2022 event... READ MORE
I began studying stock market behavior back in the 1980s. It started as a result of my practicing CPA days. While auditing clients, I realized that most of my clients had consistent payroll dates that were generally the beginning and middle of the month. That's a lot of... READ MORE
I've been warning all year about this cyclical bear market and, unfortunately, it's not over just yet. Sentiment is turning more and more bearish, which is good, but we haven't seen the peak to mark the market bottom. That will take time and patience.... READ MORE
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and mine is that the issues we've experienced in the first half of 2022 will be mitigated in the second half. Until 2022, many of you I'm sure viewed me as a perma-bull. I've always said that... READ MORE
If only growth stocks could talk. You've probably heard of the "it's not you, it's me" breakup excuse. Maybe you've had to endure it. Well, in the land of stock market trading, I believe it's a quite valid... READ MORE
As we closed out 2021, I began discussing sentiment and its need for a "reset." We had moved higher for the better part of two years, and the U.S. stock market had picked up a lot of new "post-pandemic" investors and traders. Unfortunately for this... READ MORE
Let me start off by saying that nothing is a guarantee. In technical analysis, we don't work in guarantees. We work in probabilities. As I approach earnings season, I like to separate companies into 3 baskets: 1. The strong 2. The weak 3. The I don't... READ MORE
In addition to my non-stop writing in 2022 about the bearish market environment and why I believe we're going lower, I've also provided EarningsBeats.com members with some valuable historical information. Here was an excerpt from last Monday's Daily Market Report (DMR) to our... READ MORE
Ok, I was being a bit dramatic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average only dropped 981 points on Friday, not 1000. But it was another reminder that this bear market has not ended. In fact, I believe the short-term signals are pointing to much more weakness ahead. Key relative ratios either... READ MORE
While our primary focus at EarningsBeats.com is technical analysis, we combine that technical approach with fundamental analysis as well. Earnings is what we do. Prior to earnings reports, we're scouting for those companies most likely to report better-than-expected earnings and also the opposite - companies we want... READ MORE
The U.S. equity market is definitely NOT a one-size-fits-all when developing portfolio strategies. Different market environments require that we be flexible and willing to adjust to both "risk on" and "risk off" environments. I don't think there's much question that right... READ MORE