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Introduction To Market Timing

Introduction To Market Timing

In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave discusses the significance of market timing, which is less about beating the market and more about not letting the market beat you. Dave explores how to put his methodology into action, focusing on Landry Light, 10% TFM and more. Finally, Dave presents the...   READ MORE 

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DP Show: Introducing the Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes

DP Show: Introducing the Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes

In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin introduce the new Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes. The new ChartList in the DecisionPoint Market Indicators ChartPack includes the indexes for not only the major markets, but ask those of the S&P sectors, along with a special "Gold...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS PULL BACK ON TRADE NEWS -- STOCK INDEXES REMAIN OVERBOUGHT BUT STILL IN UPTRENDS -- RETAILERS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR -- ENERGY STOCKS REBOUND WITH CRUDE OIL -- DROP...

STOCKS PULL BACK ON TRADE NEWS -- STOCK INDEXES REMAIN OVERBOUGHT BUT STILL IN UPTRENDS -- RETAILERS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR -- ENERGY STOCKS REBOUND WITH CRUDE OIL -- DROP IN BOND YIELDS BOOST DEFENSIVE STOCKS

STOCK INDEXES PULL BACK FROM OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY... News that a "phase one" trade deal may not be reached this year is contributing to selling in stocks today.  That and the fact that stocks have reached overbought territory and are probably due for some profit-taking anyway.   In fact, several...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: How to Spot a Pair Trade on RRG

Sector Spotlight: How to Spot a Pair Trade on RRG

How can you use RRGs (Relative Rotation Graphs) to spot potential pair trades? In this episode of Sector Spotlight, I explain one way to find a potential pair trading opportunity, searching for a stock with high(est) potential in a sector with high(est) potential and off-setting that position with...   READ MORE 

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Creating A Portfolio To Trounce The S&P 500

Creating A Portfolio To Trounce The S&P 500

While there's no sugar coating that the market's sudden shift in August from growth stocks to value stocks cut into my returns, I'm still quite proud of my Model portfolio's performance after its one year anniversary yesterday.  On November 19, 2018, I...   READ MORE 

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DP Daily Diamonds - Building Materials May Be Benefiting from Bullish Home Builders

DP Daily Diamonds - Building Materials May Be Benefiting from Bullish Home Builders

Many of my colleagues have been noting the hot Home Builders industry group. I found a Building Materials stock that could be benefiting from this and have also included a Home Builder stock as well. I wrote about the Home Builders group last week in this article, where I spotlighted...   READ MORE 

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They're Baaaacck......! Midyear Leaders Are Beginning To Reverse Their Downtrends.

They're Baaaacck......! Midyear Leaders Are Beginning To Reverse Their Downtrends.

The ebb and flow of the markets always keeps things interesting, but when fast-moving, high growth stocks were stopped in their track's midyear, it was quite perplexing. Many of these stocks still had strong growth prospects that would normally continue to propel them higher. Instead, investors' interest...   READ MORE 

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DP Daily Diamonds - Watch Your Weight and Eat Soup at Home Depot

DP Daily Diamonds - Watch Your Weight and Eat Soup at Home Depot

We've got an interesting mix of "diamonds" today. I'm not particularly clever with my titles, but today's does give away that Weight Watchers (WW), Campbell's (CPB) and Home Depot (HD) are on today's list. I also have Dominion...   READ MORE 

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Another Industry Breakout And A Stock That's Leading The Charge

Another Industry Breakout And A Stock That's Leading The Charge

The good news is that this breakout in the S&P 500 is littered with mini-breakouts in various sectors and industry groups.  One of the latest industry groups to join the party is diversified industrials ($DJUSID), home of General Electric (GE).  The former closed at a 52 week high...   READ MORE 

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How to Plot Cryptocurrencies on Relative Rotation Graphs

How to Plot Cryptocurrencies on Relative Rotation Graphs

On 8 November, StockCharts.com announced the arrival of cryptocurrency data in this ChartWatchers article.Regardless of what you think of cryptocurrencies, it's becoming hard to ignore them as the group of people that engage in trading them continues to grow. Personally, I have no super-strong belief (yet)...   READ MORE 

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Don't Look Now, but New Highs are Expanding within the Small-cap Universe

Don't Look Now, but New Highs are Expanding within the Small-cap Universe

The number of stocks making new highs has been a lagging link in the breadth indicators this year. While the S&P 500 trades at a new high, the number of new highs within the index has yet to exceed 100 and get back to the levels seen in...   READ MORE 

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2020 Market Outlook And A Turnaround Candidate To Consider In An Unlikely Area

2020 Market Outlook And A Turnaround Candidate To Consider In An Unlikely Area

If you've followed my blogging and shows, then you know how bullish I've been and still am.  During all the trade war, Fed, recession, and political worries, I've called for new all-time highs.  I'm not stopping there.  Don't be shocked...   READ MORE 

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Week Ahead: NIFTY Healthy But Exhausted At Higher Levels; RRG Shows These Sectors To Outperform

Week Ahead: NIFTY Healthy But Exhausted At Higher Levels; RRG Shows These Sectors To Outperform

The week that went by continued to trade on the expected lines, while the 12000-12050 zone continued to pose resistance to the markets on the upside. The week was spent with the markets consolidating at higher levels while demonstrating weakness near the critical resistance zone. The NIFTY headed nowhere over...   READ MORE 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Apple Going Vertical Again

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Apple Going Vertical Again

Late last year I wrote about Apple (AAPL) when it had broken down from a parabolic advance, a break which ultimately resulted in a total decline of about -40%. To see it on a chart just boggles my mind. I mean, here is a company with over $200 billion in...   READ MORE 

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DP Diamonds: Darlings & Duds from 9/27/2019

DP Diamonds: Darlings & Duds from 9/27/2019

For those of you not yet familiar, I have started a new report in our blog called "DecisionPoint Daily Diamonds", in which I select five stocks or "diamonds in the rough" from the results of one of my many DecisionPoint scans. Basically, I do the work...   READ MORE 

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Three Major Stock Indexes Hit New Records

Three Major Stock Indexes Hit New Records

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, November 15th at 4:14pm ET. Stocks are ending the week in record territory. The three charts below show the three major U.S. stock indexes closing at record highs on Friday....   READ MORE 

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How is YOUR Market Vision?

How is YOUR Market Vision?

First off, it gives me GREAT pleasure to announce our first ever online Financial Conference, Market Vision 2020,which will take place just as the new year begins. EarningsBeats.comChief Market Strategist Tom Bowley and I will be joined by some of the biggest names in the industry (we'...   READ MORE 

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Three Signs Showing that the Offense has Taken the Field

Three Signs Showing that the Offense has Taken the Field

The character of the stock market changed over the last six to seven weeks as the market took on a more offensive tone. Don't get me wrong. The stock market was already in bull mode and the S&P 500 has been above its 200-day SMA since...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS -- HEALTHCARE, COMMUNICATION, INDUSTRIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY ALSO HIT RECORDS -- INTERNET STOCKS LEAD XLC HIGHER -- SURGE IN HEALTH INSURERS LEADS HEALTHCARE SPD...

STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS -- HEALTHCARE, COMMUNICATION, INDUSTRIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY ALSO HIT RECORDS -- INTERNET STOCKS LEAD XLC HIGHER -- SURGE IN HEALTH INSURERS LEADS HEALTHCARE SPDR TO NEW RECORD -- UNITEDHEALTH IS ONE OF DAY'S LEADERS

THREE MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS...Stocks are ending the week in record territory.  The three charts below show the three major U.S. stock indexes closing at record highs on Friday.  And the rally is pretty broad-based.  Ten of the eleven market sectors gained on the day.  Healthcare...   READ MORE 

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Don't Be A Mystery Box Investor: Blending Technicals, Fundamentals and Observationals For A More Stable Approach

Don't Be A Mystery Box Investor: Blending Technicals, Fundamentals and Observationals For A More Stable Approach

Quick, don't think, just answer – what's your favorite thing about investing? I can't answer for you, but I can tell you mine. I admit it, I have a problem.  I'm a true stock junkie through 'n through.  I love the markets....   READ MORE 

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Looking Ahead To 2020 For Sector Leadership

Looking Ahead To 2020 For Sector Leadership

I remain quite bullish about 2020 prospects and one reason is the relative strength of our 5 aggressive sectors - technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), communication services (XLC), financials (XLF), and industrials (XLI).  Wall Street has not positioned itself for anything other than a market advance ahead, so you should...   READ MORE 

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Industrials is a Sector to Watch - Here are Two Stocks that May Stand Out

Industrials is a Sector to Watch - Here are Two Stocks that May Stand Out

On the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, Industrials continue to show a strong rotation. They are now just about to cross over into the lagging quadrant on the weekly timeframe. I spoke about this strong rotation more in depth in last week's Sector Spotlight show on StockCharts...   READ MORE 

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What A First Year It's Been For My Model Portfolio! +44.54% With 3 Days Left

What A First Year It's Been For My Model Portfolio! +44.54% With 3 Days Left

Any time you can beat the benchmark S&P 500, it's saying something.  Many professionals managing money set the S&P 500 as the standard and try to beat it....and most fail.  It's not an easy thing to do.  But I do believe...   READ MORE 

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DP Daily Diamonds - Is Your "Cash Safe" in Home Builders?

DP Daily Diamonds - Is Your "Cash Safe" in Home Builders?

Forgive the pun today, but I found it quite funny when the only two results on my Diamond PMO Scan were "CASH" and "SAFE"! I have included both today as I did find them very interesting. From there, I ran a different scan and a number...   READ MORE 

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US Stocks, Gold and Open Mic!

US Stocks, Gold and Open Mic!

On this episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents his new Great Growth Stock, "Brad's Drink". He also gives his take on Disney (DIS), Copper (CPER), Lending Club (LC) and Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). This episode originally aired on November 14th, 2019. New episodes of Real...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES HOLD THEIR GAINS -- COMMUNICATION SERVICES SPDR NEARS RECORD HIGH -- GOOGLE, DISNEY, AND CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS HIT NEW RECORDS -- ENERGY SPDR MEETS SELLING AT 200-DAY LINE -...

STOCK INDEXES HOLD THEIR GAINS -- COMMUNICATION SERVICES SPDR NEARS RECORD HIGH -- GOOGLE, DISNEY, AND CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS HIT NEW RECORDS -- ENERGY SPDR MEETS SELLING AT 200-DAY LINE -- SO DOES CRUDE OIL AND DB COMMODITY INDEX

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HOLD THEIR GAINS... The first three charts below show the major stock indexes holding onto their November gains.  All three remain above their July highs which should now provide support on any pullbacks.  [Broken overhead resistance becomes new support.  That's why the red horizontal trendlines...   READ MORE 

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Friends with Diversification Benefits

Friends with Diversification Benefits

Last time we showed you charts of many different market indices along with two of our strategies. We started with drawdown (our preferred measure of risk), instead of starting with returns, as we believe that managing risk is the more important aspect of developing strategies. Risk management is paramount to...   READ MORE 

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Rotating Back Into the Leading Quadrant While Breaking Above Resistance in Price and Relative Strength... What More Do You Want?

Rotating Back Into the Leading Quadrant While Breaking Above Resistance in Price and Relative Strength... What More Do You Want?

When I ran the RRG for the most active movers in the S&P 500 (at yesterday's close), I noted a strong rotation for AMD. This stock entered the leading quadrant in the week of 18 March and moved inside that quadrant until the week of June...   READ MORE 

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New Leadership In The Industrials, But How Do We Break Down The Group For Winners?

New Leadership In The Industrials, But How Do We Break Down The Group For Winners?

In my last article, I illustrated the relative breakout in industrials vs. the benchmark S&P 500.  The market goes through cycles and leadership rotates - even during the same bull market.  StockCharts.com recently added SCTR scores for industry groups, so if you're unsure as to...   READ MORE 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: Intermediate-Term Negative Divergences Warn

DP Alert Mid-Week: Intermediate-Term Negative Divergences Warn

Another week has passed and the market isn't really showing its hand. Momentum is slowing, but we haven't seen any serious pullbacks. I have been suspicious of this market since the breakout to new all-time highs, given the soft breadth numbers and the lack of positive...   READ MORE 

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DP Daily Diamonds - Does it Bear Repeating?

DP Daily Diamonds - Does it Bear Repeating?

I am finding that I get "repeats" in my scan results of stocks that I've already presented to you in recent Diamond Reports. For example, Microsoft (MSFT) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) have found their way into today's results, but I wrote about each within...   READ MORE 

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Money & Position Management

Money & Position Management

In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave discusses what you need to hear regarding money and position management, with a special focus on his "secret sauce." In addition, he also talks about last week's Mystery Chart reveal and presents a new Mystery Chart. This episode originally...   READ MORE 

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Jumping The Shark – Key Signals That Your Stock is No Longer In An Uptrend

Jumping The Shark – Key Signals That Your Stock is No Longer In An Uptrend

Picking the right stock is a lot like catching that perfect wave. You're out there in a sea of possibilities, looking for that perfect setup. Is the stock coming out of a powerful base and ready to crest? And is there enough room for your stock to run?...   READ MORE 

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DP Daily Diamonds - Heavy Financials

DP Daily Diamonds - Heavy Financials

I would like to thank all of our veterans for their service in recognition of Veterans' Day (which was yesterday), particularly my father, who is a 20-year veteran of the USAF. As a veteran myself, I decided to take yesterday off from writing. Today's "diamonds in...   READ MORE 

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DP Show: Put/Call Ratios - Breadth - Swenlin Trading Oscillators Still Warn

DP Show: Put/Call Ratios - Breadth - Swenlin Trading Oscillators Still Warn

In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin review the action of the S&P 500 in depth, covering the climactic and short-term indicator divergences as the market climbs. (There are problems that cannot be ignored, but they are more subtle.) Carl presents his Yield Array and sees activity...   READ MORE 

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RRG Shows Bullish Sector Rotation!

RRG Shows Bullish Sector Rotation!

As it turns out, finding an interesting chart for today's DITC article was not very difficult! The weekly RRG, printed above, shows a very strong rotation in favor of offensive, high BETA sectors. Industrials, Financials, and Technology are already inside the leading quadrant and showing strong RRG headings....   READ MORE 

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A Key New Theme Has Emerged

A Key New Theme Has Emerged

We've witnessed a major shift in relative strength among sectors and industry groups and in order to prepare for the overall market strength in late-2019 and into 2020, we need to recognize this fundamental shift.  Below I've identified a major thematic change in the U.S....   READ MORE 

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Week Ahead: Higher Levels Sustainable Only If This Bearish Divergence Is Corrected; Caution Advised

Week Ahead: Higher Levels Sustainable Only If This Bearish Divergence Is Corrected; Caution Advised

The previous week played out very much on expected lines. In our last weekly note, we mentioned that NIFTY is facing stiff resistance in the 12000-12100 area and that the bearish divergences are not allowing a clean breakout on the charts. After staying buoyant for a significant part of the...   READ MORE 

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ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- WHILE DEFENSIVE STOCKS FALL BEHIND -- MATERIALS ARE BEING LED HIGHER BY COPPER SHARES -- WHILE GOLD MINERS ARE LOSING GR...

ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- WHILE DEFENSIVE STOCKS FALL BEHIND -- MATERIALS ARE BEING LED HIGHER BY COPPER SHARES -- WHILE GOLD MINERS ARE LOSING GROUND -- DOW JONES NONFERROUS METALS INDEX TURNS UP

WEEKLY SECTOR RANKINGS...Chart 1 lists the eleven stock market sectors in order of relative strength for the past week.  There aren't any surprises there; but there is more confirmation of recent rotations within the stock market showing more confidence in the market and the global economy.  Financials...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Come Alive, but Microcaps Fall Short

Small-Caps Come Alive, but Microcaps Fall Short

The Russell 2000 ETF is finally showing signs of an uptrend with the first higher-low/higher-high sequence in six months. The chart below shows the Russell 1000 ETF (IWB), the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Russell Microcap ETF (IWC) to compare highs and lows. Chartists can use this technique...   READ MORE