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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Internal Support Substantially Erroded
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The Nasdaq Composite Index is about 2.5% below its all-time high of earlier this year, but its Bullish Percent Index (BPI), which is the percentage of Nasdaq component stocks with point and figure BUY signals, stands at only 44%. This is about -15% below the BPI reading at the...
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Drum Roll, Please!! A New Era Begins
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
The excitement is building as Tom Bowley gets ready to rejoin the EarningsBeats.comteam as Chief Market Strategist. Why the excitement? Because Tom's experience as Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com, along with being one of the original founders of and contributors to EarningsBeats.com, gives him a...
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Four Keys to Finding Meaningful Bullish Reversal Patterns - with Two Live Examples
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Major bullish reversal patterns signal the start of new up trends that can extend and be very profitable. However, chartists must first learn to distinguish between meaningful patterns and irrelevant patterns. Here's how...
There are three parts to a major bullish reversal pattern. First, there is the price...
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Stock Indexes Break Out of August Trading Range to the Upside
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, September 5th at 10:46am ET.
A rally in global stocks has taken a turn for the better with major stock indexes clearing some upside resistance barriers. The three major stock indexes...
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S&P 500 Breaks Trading Range To Upside And There Was Very Bullish Confirmation
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, September 5, 2019
U.S. indices had a strong day on Thursday, with leadership from key aggressive areas. The small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT) led the action with a solid 1.75% gain. More on the RUT in today's Current Outlook section below. The...
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STOCK INDEXES BREAK OUT OF AUGUST TRADING RANGE TO THE UPSIDE -- LED BY FINANCIALS, TECH, AND INDUSTRIALS -- RISING BOND YIELDS ARE BOOSTING BANKS AND FINANCIALS WHILE BOND PROXIES WEAKEN -- SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECH SECTOR HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS...A rally in global stocks has taken a turn for the better with major stock indexes clearing some upside resistance barriers. The three major stock indexes shown below have all cleared their August highs and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, their 14-day...
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Semis Extend Bounce off Key Retracement - XLI and XLF Surge off Support - Ranking and Grouping Key ETFs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Today we will rank and group the key ETFs that I follow. Instead of showing all five groups, like in last week's commentary, I will focus the middle three groups, which I think are the most interesting and still have potential. I am not even going to cover...
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Is This Stock Ready For a Turnaround - or Just a Quick Bounce?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) above is the result of a scan that I am running from time to time. Before you ask... ;) in an upcoming RRG Charts blog, I will explain how I got to this selection of stocks, including the scan-code.
For now, let's concentrate on...
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Head & Shoulder Top Is Perhaps The Most Over-Hyped Technical Pattern
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, September 4, 2019
It was a solid day for U.S. equities as all of our major indices rallied, as did all 11 sectors. Communication services (XLC, +1.94%) and technology (XLK, +1.71%) were the top two performing sectors. Broadcasting & entertainment ($DJUSBC, +2.12%...
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S&P 500 Leads Breadth Charge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 and SPY are challenging their August highs again and large-cap breadth is stronger than breadth in mid-caps and small-caps. Since we seem to be on a day-to-day situation with the S&P 500 and this trading range, I will provide another short-term breadth update....
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DP Alert Mid-Week: Reverse Head Shoulders/Triple Bottom on Indexes - PMO BUY for NDX
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The NDX scored a PMO BUY signal, lagging slightly behind the other three Scoreboard indexes. Below the Scoreboards, I have included not only the NDX but also the other three Scoreboard indexes (SPX, OEX and INDU), as "solid line" charts rather than OHLC bars. I was curious to...
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A Classic Reversal Pattern with a Live Example - Plus 3 Stock Setups
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though trend continuations are more likely than trend reversals, reversals do occur and chartists looking for price reversals should understand the classic patterns. While perusing through the charts today, I found a stock with a classic reversal pattern and a breakout in the works. Even though reversal patterns are...
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Defensive Sectors Hold U.S. Equities Up
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, September 3, 2019
This is just a very brief market recap as I'm on jury duty this week.
New U.S. tariffs took effect this morning and it's September, so the stock market saw considerable weakness, especially at the open. Defensive sectors...
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The Never-Ending Range, Low Vol Leadership and Credit Market Canaries
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
As noted in Tuesday's commentary, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and several big sector SPDRs remain locked in trading ranges. SPY fell back from range resistance with a modest decline on Tuesday (-.58%). It certainly could have been worst.
As the chart below shows, SPY...
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Martin Pring's Monthly Market Roundup 2019-09-03
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
The monthly Market Roundup video for September is now available.
Good luck and good charting,
Martin J. Pring
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Group of Walnut Creek or its affiliates....
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Four More Short-Term Indicators Turn Bullish for Equities
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Breadth Acting Positively
* Four Short-Term Indicators Turn Bullish
* Stocks Could Be Breaking Against Gold
The mood on Wall Street is turning ever more cautious as the economic numbers continue to soften. We need to remember, though, that the stock market is a forward-looking indicator, as it looks through the foggy...
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STOCKS START SEPTEMBER ON A WEAK NOTE -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES BACK OFF FROM OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- INDUSTRIALS, FINANCIALS, AND TECH ARE WEAKEST SECTORS -- UTILITIES AND REITS HIT NEW HIGHS -- TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO THREE-YEAR LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES BACK OFF FROM OVERHEAD RESISTANCE...Stocks are only halfway through one of the year's weakest seasonal stretches between August and September. And September is usually the weaker of the two. And they're starting the month on a weak note. Another round of tariffs...
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Volatile and Yet Not So Volatile
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks opened strong on Friday morning and then sold off ahead of a three day weekend. Well, the weekend has passed and stocks are set to open lower on Tuesday. What a surprise! August was volatile for the S&P 500. And yet it was also not volatile. The...
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Sneak Preview: Sector and Industry Relative Strength Analysis
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Special Note
There will be no Trading Places blog article on Tuesday, September 3rd as I've been selected for jury duty and will be out all day. I'll find out more of my schedule (for later this week) tomorrow morning and I will post articles here...
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Week Ahead: NIFTY Has A Treacherous Road Ahead; These Sectors To Relatively Out-Perform As Per RRG
by Milan Vaishnav,
Founder and Technical Analyst, EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae
Throughout the past week, the Indian equity market struggled to keep its head above crucial levels and ended the week with modest gains. Keeping on anticipated lines, the week remained very volatile as the markets oscillated in a 385-point range. The week that went by digested the reforms initiated by...
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Charting the Fab 5 for Clues on QQQ
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Today we will look at charts for the biggest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Even though the big tech titans dominate QQQ, note that Pepsi (PEP) is the 10th largest stock and accounts for 2.3%. PEP is obviously part of the Consumer Staples sector.
The top five stocks...
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The August Stealth Bull That Has Some Investors Cheering
by Mary Ellen McGonagle,
President, MEM Investment Research
For most investors, it's been a tough month as headline induced volatility brought the Indexes to their worse August returns since 2015.
While a sense of doom and gloom has dominated the popular financial news, select investors that have looked beyond the headlines have seen dramatic gains for...
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The 3 Biggest Risks As We Enter September; The Trade War Isn't One
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Listen, the media loves to overhype the trade war. Seriously, is there anyone that isn't aware of the trade war, the tweets, the rhetoric, etc. at this point? Hasn't everyone already priced in an economic disaster because of it? Oh wait! That's right, our...
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Should Market Breadth Be Cap-Weighted or Equal-Weighted?
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
I recently tweeted about the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving averages, pointing out that there is a key line in the sand for this important breadth indicator. This resulted in a fantastic question about looking at market breadth in cap-weighted terms vs. equal-weighted terms.In this article, we&...
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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Seriously Suspecting September Seasonality
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The month of September has a reputation for being a bad month for the stock market. After the October 1987 Crash, the month of October carried a bad rep for years, but more recently we are told that it's really September we have to watch out for. On...
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Most Sectors Still Experiencing Rising Peaks and Troughs
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in Martin Pring's Market Roundup on Wednesday, August 27th at 4:15pm ET.
One simple and very much overlooked technique for trend identification is to observe whether the price of a security is experiencing a series of rising peaks...
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Stocks Yield. Bonds Don't
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
A characteristic of this economic cycle has been the disappearance of yield. Yield has been like a glacier melting ever downward and eventually disappearing into the yawning gap it created. In this brave new world of minimalistic interest rates how does an investor create income? Negative interest rates infect most...
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Growth vs. Value Rotation is Sending a Very Clear Message on RRG
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
One of the Relative Rotation Graphs that I like to keep an eye on in order to get a handle on the general market condition (for stocks) is the chart above, which shows the rotation of Value versus Growth stocks using the Dow Jones US Index as the benchmark. The...
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China Blinks First, U.S. Equities Rally
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, August 29, 2019
Well, thank you China. On Thursday morning, China pledged a calmer approach to the trade war and indicated they would not retaliate for the latest tariffs imposed by the U.S. At least not now. Temporarily, that appeased traders who used the opportunity...
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State of the Stock Market - Big Sectors Hold Strong
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The broader market may not seem bullish right now, but there is clearly a bull market somewhere within stocks. In particular, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently within five percent of all time highs, which were hit just five weeks ago. Moreover, they held well above...
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It is Time for a Change
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
I have written 194 articles in my Dancing with the Trend blog on StockCharts.com in the past 4+ years. My intent was to educate about how markets work, offer full support of technical analysis, and tell real stories about being a money manager for the past 20+ years. I...
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STOCKS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SUPPORT LEVELS HOLD -- THE DOW SURVIVES TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- AS DO SEVERAL SECTOR SPDRS -- TRANSPORTATION REBOUND HELPS LIFT XLI -- SMALL CAP REBOUND IS ALSO HELPING SUPPORT RALLY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THE DOW HOLDS ITS RED LINE...A lot of underlying support levels have held this week, and stocks are now approaching overhead resistance.Tuesday's message showed the Dow Industrials testing its 200-day moving average for the third time since the start of August. Sometimes the third time is...
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A (pair) Trade Idea in Consumer Discretionary
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Looking at the daily Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, we can see that Consumer Discretionary is inside the improving quadrant and about to cross over into leading at a strong RRG-Heading. For the near-term, this makes XLY a sector to keep an eye on.
In order to look for...
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Ranking and Categorizing Dozens of Key ETFs into Five Chart Groups
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Today I am breaking my ETF chart list into five groups and showing these groups in order of performance, strongest to weakest.
After analyzing and comparing these price charts, five clear groups emerged. First, there are ETFs with very strong uptrends that look very extended. Second, there are ETFs with...
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Consumer Strength Is Real, PLUS A Personal Announcement
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, August 28, 2019
10 of 11 sectors advanced in a broad-based rally on Wednesday that carried the Dow Jones higher by 1%. The small cap Russell 2000, a major laggard in 2019, rose 1.15% in a rare day of outperformance. Energy (XLE, +1.43%), consumer...
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DP Mid-Week Alert: Volatility Still a Problem
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are still very bearish; in spite of a recovery this week so far (1.43% higher for the SPX), the charts aren't favorable. I've analyzed volatility, breadth and our indicators and was only able to find one note of positivity. At this point,...
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WEAKER GROUPS ARE TESTING IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS -- THAT INCLUDES SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS WHICH ARE TESTING THEIR SPRING LOWS -- AND FINANCIALS -- HOW THEY HANDLE THAT TEST OF SUPPORT COULD EFFECT MARKET DIRECTION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALLER STOCKS TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL...Yesterday's message showed the Dow Industrials and a handful of sector SPDRS testing potential support at their 200-day moving averages. Today's message will show three stock groups that are testing even more important support along their spring lows. Starting with...
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Volatility And Treasury Yields: The Two Beasts Of Burden
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, August 27, 2019
U.S. equities were strong out of the gate on Tuesday, but had little follow-through as sellers re-emerged. Early gains on our major indices quickly vanished and these key indices were left trying to minimize losses into the close. There were no significant...
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When The Crowd Screams Recession, Technicians Should Prepare For A Bull Market
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Support Holds in an Oversold Market
* Most Sectors Still Experiencing Rising Peaks and Troughs
Last week, I pointed out that the stock market faced a challenge at its recent lows. This was because I saw that a breach of the solid red trend lines in Charts 1 and 2 would...
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A LOT OF 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEING TESTED -- STARTING WITH THE DOW -- AND SOME SECTOR SPDRS -- AND EAFE ISHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STARTING WITH THE DOW...Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials finding support at its 200-day moving average for the third time this month. That's an encouraging sign. In addition, its daily MACD lines are close to turning positive (lower box); while its 14-day RSI line (top box) is...
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