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WORLD STOCK INDEXES ARE TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE AND LOOKING OVER-EXTENDED -- THAT MAY EXPLAIN THEIR BAD REACTION TO TRADE TENSIONS -- WORLD STOCKS HAVE TO CLEAR RESISTANCE LEVELS TO RESUME THEIR 2019 UPTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRADE TENSIONS RATTLE OVEREXTENDED GLOBAL STOCKS ... Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China rattled global stocks this week. Stock prices are rising and falling with each news report. After falling sharply yesterday (Tuesday), stocks are rebounding today on more optimistic news reports about the meeting between U.S....
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S&P Executes Wedge And Rotation To Defensive Sectors Accelerates
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Since printing its high on 1 May, the S&P 500 has struggled to keep up and make its final push through resistance. Over the last three to four days, the bulls have capitulated, putting a reinforcement of the 2940-2950 resistance zone into place. The rising wedge formation that...
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Friends Don't Let Friends Buy and Hold
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
The timing of this article is appropriate. Part of this was written by Tim Chapman who was a founder of PMFM, the company I worked with and later became Stadion. I liked its message so am updating it with this article. I remember back when I was managing money, I...
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How Much Selling Is Ok?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, May 7, 2019
It was a wicked day on Wall Street. It felt more like December 2018 than May 2019. Volatility surged for a second consecutive day and sellers swamped buyers. Volume accelerated as it generally does during market selloffs and a bit of panic was...
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Micron Fails at Break Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
A basic concept of technical analysis is that broken support turns into future resistance. This concept is proving true for Micron (MU) as it returned to broken support in April and backed off the last two weeks.
The chart shows MU breaking down with a support break in September and...
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A Shot Across the Bow with a Triple 90% Down Day - What to Watch Next
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Triple 90% Down Day
It is way too early to call for a major top, but we do have a short-term breadth signal that points to further downside. The chart below shows AD Percent for the S&P 500, S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap...
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DP Bulletin: New ST Trend Model Neutral Signal on the DOW - First to Fall
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Just a quick bulletin to let you know the Dow Industrials lost the Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal, meaning it has now moved to "Neutral."
The 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA, which is what triggered the signal change. Had the negative crossover occurred BELOW the 50-EMA, it would...
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Campaign Caravan
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
For most investors Campaigning stocks is an acquired skill. A stock campaign is typically a multi-year endurance event. In a classic uptrend a stock will have trending periods followed by consolidations (Wyckoffians call them Reaccumulations). These pauses can last months to a year or more in duration. Wyckoff Campaigners resist...
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STOCK PULLBACK CONTINUES -- ALL MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE BACK BELOW LAST YEAR'S PEAK -- MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING TESTED -- ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INDUSTRIALS ARE AMONG BIGGEST SECTOR LOSERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES LOSE MORE GROUND ... The stock market pullback that started yesterday is continuing again today. And all three major stock indexes appear headed for a test of underlying moving average lines. First and foremost, it's where this pullback is starting from that's most concerning....
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Wall Street Shakes Off Trade Worries...For A Day
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, May 6, 2019
The session got off to a very rough start as global market were hit hard following word that US-China trade talks were off the tracks once again. President Trump warned of steeper tariffs and Chinese officials said they were considering abandoning talks altogether....
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Ebay Holds the Gap and the Break
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Ebay (EBAY) reversed its downtrend with a reversal pattern and break above the 200-day SMA in late January and early February. After digesting its gains with a corrective pattern in March-April the stock broke out again with a gap and appears headed higher.
The stock formed a rare island reversal...
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Jobs Strong On Friday But China Trade Weighs On Futures
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, May 3, 2019
April nonfarm payrolls were much stronger than expected, jumping to 263,000 and well ahead of the 180,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, the lowest its seen in 50 years. The bond market wasn't impressed, however,...
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Week Ahead: This Zone Is Set To Act As Stiff Resistance Area For The Coming Week
by Milan Vaishnav,
Founder and Technical Analyst, EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae
In a truncated 3-day working week, the Indian equity markets headed nowhere and ended the week on a flat note once again. In our previous weekly note, we had mentioned the possibility of the NIFTY failing to break resistance at 11760. In the week that went by, though the markets...
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Spring Savings Are Here, With A Very Special Twist...
by Grayson Roze,
Chief Strategist, StockCharts.com
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
The springtime sun is shining bright here in the Pacific Northwest, and we think that's cause for celebration. So, I'm coming to you this week with a very special announcement.
For a limited time only this month, we're giving you 2...
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Volume Ratio Charts - Climactic Attention Flags
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
My dad, Carl Swenlin, was a guest on MarketWatchers LIVE last Wednesday (here is a link to that show). He brought in some DecisionPoint indicator charts that I hadn't looked at in quite some time (truth be told, he hadn't looked at them in awhile either)...
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Interdisciplinary Investing: Combining Fundamentals and Technicals Increases Profits
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
How does a return of 14% in six months sound to you? Last February, I wrote a blog about attending the unique interdisciplinary DENT Conference last year in Napa Valley. I credit my attendance there with directly re-energizing and reimagining my investing over the six months that followed. This past...
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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Nasdaq Composite Record High Not Supported by Internals
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a new, all-time high, but the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a long way from confirming that. The BPI is the percentage of Nasdaq Composite stocks that are on point and figure BUY signals, and Friday's reading is 55%. That...
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Profiting from Pullbacks
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
When you're a bull, the last thing you want to see is a pullback in stocks you own. This is understandable - who wants to see something they own lose value? But, at some point, the market and individual stocks will get overheated, so instead of worrying about...
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Investors Never Say Never
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
“The market will pull back about 5% before continuing higher.”
“Banks always do well with a steeper yield curve.”
“If the market moves higher, then gold will definitely pull back.”
“I’m sure we’ll see a correction in the next two weeks.”
When I was in college, one of...
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Strong Jobs Report Boosts Stocks - S&P 500 Nears Another Record
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, May 3rd at 1:34pm ET.
A surprisingly strong jobs report this morning has given stocks a big boost today. All major indexes are having a strong day with the Nasdaq and...
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STRONG JOBS REPORT BOOSTS STOCKS -- TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- S&P 500 NEARS ANOTHER RECORD -- INSURANCE STOCKS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER -- METLIFE NEARS MAJOR UPSIDE BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 TRIES TO REGAIN RECORD HIGH ... A surprisingly strong jobs report this morning has given stocks a big boost today. All major indexes are having a strong day with the Nasdaq and small caps in the lead (more on that shortly). Transports are also having an especially...
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Improving the Best Six Months Strategy by Adding Months and Timing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The "Best Six Months" strategy suggests that the best time to own stocks is from November to April, and the worst time is from May to October. Testing over the last 25 years confirms the performance differences between these two periods, but this strategy still leaves money on...
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Energy Remains A Drag And Seasonality Suggests It Could Get Worse
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, May 2, 2019
Energy (XLE, -1.74%) took yet another tumble on Thursday, which dampened an otherwise decent recovery from intraday morning lows in our major indices. The Dow Jones was the big loser, dropping 0.46%, while the small cap Russell 2000 index rebounded nicely,...
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DP Bulletin: OEX Triggers ST PMO SELL Signal
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The OEX hopped on board the SELL signal train as its Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line, which triggered its own Short-Term PMO SELL Signal.
A rising wedge was nearly executed today to the downside. The PMO was yanked below its signal line, which generated the SELL...
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Commodities: Down Now, Up Later?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Two Key Commodity Benchmarks Violated Trend Lines
* Commodity Sector ETFs Breaking as Well
* Longer-Term Picture May be Reversing
In early April, I tacked on a couple of commodity charts at the end of an article that commented on global equities breaking out. There, I noticed that some commodity indexes were...
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WEAK INFLATION ISN'T TRANSITORY -- COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE -- A RISING DOLLAR IS ONE REASON WHY -- STOCKS REACT BADLY TO LESS DOVISH FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR -- CRUDE OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE ... Yesterday's message suggested that weaker commodity prices should provide some comfort to the Fed since subdued inflation would allow the Fed to keep rates on hold and prolong the decade-long economic recovery. It turns out the Fed is more worried than...
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Market Roundup With Martin Pring
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Here is the link to this month's Market Roundup video. There are a significant number of long-term charts that are starting to turn higher suggesting, that the brief economic slowdown in late 2018 is behind us and we are starting the next major leg higher. Market Roundup with...
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Banks Vs. REITs Provide Bullish Clue
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, May 1, 2019
Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruined the bull market party on Wednesday afternoon, effectively suggesting that the Fed would not be lowering rates in response to low inflation data of late. The bond market has been screaming for a rate cut, not a hike,...
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Will JNJ Be Able To Pull The Sector Back On Its Feet?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Healthcare sector is not in its best shape. On the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, XLV is deep down inside the lagging quadrant against SPY, without any signs of improvement at the moment. However, if you feel that this situation will not last forever and are gutsy enough...
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DP Alert: PMO SELL Signals on SPX & NDX - Gold Sentiment Very Bearish
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The Dow flipped to a new PMO SELL signal on Monday; today, we saw the SPX and NDX join in. These are just more signs that the market is angling for a pullback or correction. We saw climactic readings on the VIX and breadth; additionally, the discounts on Sprott Physical...
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RECENT WEAKNESS IN COMMODITY MARKETS MAY BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FED -- THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX HAS WEAKENED ALONG WITH MOST COMMODITY GROUPS -- THE UPTREND IN OIL MAY ALSO BE WEAKENING -- ENERGY SPDR HAS ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ITS MOVING AVERAGE LINES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITY PRICES WEAKEN ... One of the factors the Fed is now considering to help formulate its monetary policy for the rest of the year is the question of inflation. Rising inflation puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Flat or falling inflation allows the Fed to stick with its...
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Go Away In May? More Like "Time To Fly Is Mid-July"
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Alphabet (GOOGL, -7.50%) set the stage for a rough day on the NASDAQ (-0.81%) as the internet giant posted quarterly results that didn't impress Wall Street. The small cap Russell 2000 lost 0.45%, losing ground vs. the benchmark...
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Junk Science; Junk Analysis!
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
I don’t think I have offended anyone in quite a while and feel I’m not doing my job if I don't try to periodically; so here goes!
Often a simple mathematical series of numbers can sometimes get misinterpreted (promoted) to be something magical. My personal favorite...
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Docusign Breaks from Consolidation Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Docusign (DOCU), a company that provides e-signature solutions, started trading on August 27th and surged over 30% on its IPO. The stock advanced another 65% after this initial gain and then fell back to the IPO price in October. Notice that the six month lockup period ended on October 24th...
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Dow Unable to Avoid Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL Signal
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Since about the beginning of March, the SPX has been outperforming the Dow on an absolute basis. Looking at the December 26, 2018-April 30, 2019 PerfChart below,, the Dow is up just above 16%, which is certainly a win. However, the SPX, our benchmark, is up almost 20% from December...
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Mixed Rotations For Technology Stocks Inside The Dow - MSFT Comes Out On Top!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph shows the five technology stocks inside the DJ Industrials index, all of which are at the right-hand side of the RRG. This is not surprising, considering the strong rotation of the sector as a whole against the S&P 500 index.
Despite the strength of...
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Watch This Transportation Ratio Very, Very Closely
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, April 29, 2019
A bull market is comprised of a number of things, but two are wide participation and rotation of strength. We've been seeing both. Yesterday, it was financials (XLF, +1.01%) and communication services (XLC, +0.91%) that led the S&...
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Palo Alto Readies for its Next Move
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is a leading cyber-security stock that fits into the technology sector. Needless to say, the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the EW Technology ETF (RYT) are the leading sectors here in 2019. PANW took a break with a consolidation over the last eight weeks, and this could...
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Ford Lifts Autos, Healthcare Advances, And Consumer Stocks Bullish
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, April 26, 2019
When was the last time I suggested Ford Motor Co (F, +10.74%) was a catalyst for any bull market advance? Ummm, probably never. But F was exactly that on Friday as much better than expected earnings lifted the stock and the automobile...
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