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A Five Step Bearish Setup for ABC

A Five Step Bearish Setup for ABC

AmerisourceBergen (ABC) started the day strong and rose with the broader market, but turned south in the afternoon and formed a bearish engulfing. This bearish candlestick reversal looks especially ominous because it formed near the minimum retracement and with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) overbought. The chart shows ABC breaking...   READ MORE 

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How This Organized Process Will Maximize Your Investing Analysis - ChartPack Update #22 (Q4, 2018)

How This Organized Process Will Maximize Your Investing Analysis - ChartPack Update #22 (Q4, 2018)

Yes — since 2013, our ChartPack user community has suggested thousands of powerful improvements to our quarterly presentation of ChartLists. Over these six years, StockCharts.com has grown mightily and many new members are not entirely clear what the Tensile Trading ChartPack actually is. So here are seven brief points to...   READ MORE 

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Bear Markets and Drawdowns - 2

Bear Markets and Drawdowns - 2

This is a continuation of the previous article.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also referred to as The Dow by the financial media, is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Dow covers all industries with the exception of transportation and utilities, which are covered by the...   READ MORE 

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Solid Earnings Lift Financials, Wall Street

Solid Earnings Lift Financials, Wall Street

Market Recap for Wednesday, January 16, 2019 Late-day selling cut into some of Wall Street's gains, but the bear market rally continued.  It's left many wondering whether we're still in a bear market.  The technical answer to that question is yes, we're...   READ MORE 

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Long Tail And Strong RRG-Heading For IRM

Long Tail And Strong RRG-Heading For IRM

The Relative Rotation Graph above highlights the rotation of IRM (Iron Mountain Inc.) in comparison to the other stocks in the S&P Real-Estate sector (XLRE). The sector itself is interesting to keep an eye on as it is positioned well inside the leading quadrant but rolling over, at...   READ MORE 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Indicators and Mature Rising Wedge Suggest a Downturn

DP Alert: Short-Term Indicators and Mature Rising Wedge Suggest a Downturn

Right now, our short-term indicators (and even our climactic ones) are suggesting decline. The rising wedge formation on the SPX is quite bearish, but I also see it as being "mature." This means that price is getting very close to the apex of the wedge. I'll...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- OVERSOLD READINGS SUPPORT A RALLY -- BUT THEIR MAJOR TREND IS STILL DOWN -- THE S&P 500 NEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE WHILE THE VIX TESTS SUPPORT

FINANCIAL STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- OVERSOLD READINGS SUPPORT A RALLY -- BUT THEIR MAJOR TREND IS STILL DOWN -- THE S&P 500 NEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE WHILE THE VIX TESTS SUPPORT

FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE ... After months of poor absolute and relative performance, financial stocks are starting to show some upside leadership. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) gapping higher today and trading above its 50-day moving average (blue circle). That would be enough...   READ MORE 

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Big Sectors Drive Short-term Breakout in SPY

Big Sectors Drive Short-term Breakout in SPY

* Stocks Bid to Extend Higher. * SPY Enters the Prior Consolidation. * Big Sectors Join the Breakout Parade. ... The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and several sector SPDRs broke out of short-term consolidations in a bid to extend the upswing that began on December 26th. While I remain in the bearish...   READ MORE 

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10 S&P 500 Stocks That Seasonally Outperform From February Through April

10 S&P 500 Stocks That Seasonally Outperform From February Through April

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 15, 2019 We saw an across-the-board advance led by healthcare (XLV, +1.80%), communication services (XLC, +1.66%) and technology (XLK, +1.51%).  All of our major indices jumped as NASDAQ shares soared by 1.71%.  The S&P 500 rose 1.07%.  After...   READ MORE 

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Palo Alto Networks Breaks from the Pack

Palo Alto Networks Breaks from the Pack

Most stocks have struggled since November, but Palo Alto Networks managed to reverse at a key area and break above a resistance zone. The chart below shows PANW with weekly bars over the last 3 years. The stock broke to new highs in February 2018 and more than doubled from...   READ MORE 

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And the Winning Sector is....

And the Winning Sector is....

I decided to review the Sector Summary, Sector CandleGlance Charts and our DP Sector Scoreboard to see which sector(s) were "winners." In all honesty, depending on the timeframe, various sectors rein supreme. However, there is one particular sector that has performed well across all timeframes. Let'...   READ MORE 

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Forget the Price and Anchor to the Trend

Forget the Price and Anchor to the Trend

Anchoring is a behavioral phenomenon wherein we, as people, lock in to a specific reference point that then affects our subsequent decisions. When I taught technical analysis at Brandeis University, I asked one group of students to tell me where the S&P 500 would be at the end...   READ MORE 

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Banks Rally On Citigroup's Results, But Likely To Struggle Today With JP Morgan's

Banks Rally On Citigroup's Results, But Likely To Struggle Today With JP Morgan's

Market Recap for Monday, January 14, 2019 The losses on Monday were not huge, but there did seem to be selling in most areas of the market.  10 of 11 sectors finished lower as financials (XLF, +0.69%) was the only sector to finish in positive territory.  That sector'...   READ MORE 

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Market Hits Resistance, So What's Next?

Market Hits Resistance, So What's Next?

* Averages Reach Resistance * Selected Emerging Markets Starting to Look Interesting Last week, I wrote that, while my view on the primary trend remained bearish, I thought the lows established a couple of weeks or so ago stood a good chance of holding for a while. That view was based on...   READ MORE 

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Coca-Cola Loses Some Fizz

Coca-Cola Loses Some Fizz

Stocks surged over the last 12 days with the S&P 500 gaining over 10% and moving above its late December high. Coca-Cola (KO) was leading the market with a new high in November, but did not partake in the broad market rally here in January. SPY is up...   READ MORE 

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The 800-pound Gorilla Hits Resistance

The 800-pound Gorilla Hits Resistance

I highlighted the confluence of data points that argue for resistance in the S&P 500 last week and would like to review this as we start a new week. Note that I only focus on resistance when the bigger trend is down. Why? Because resistance levels have a...   READ MORE 

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Will Earnings Sustain The Current Rally? Probably Not

Will Earnings Sustain The Current Rally? Probably Not

Market Recap for Friday, January 11, 2019 Healthcare (XLV, +0.33%) and consumer staples (XLP, +0.29%) paced a bifurcated market on Friday as the Russell 2000 eked out a 2 point gain.  Despite rallying most of the session after a poor start, the Dow Jones, S&P 500...   READ MORE 

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ICICI Securities: Interesting Days Ahead

ICICI Securities: Interesting Days Ahead

ICICI Securities Ltd. (ISEC.IN) In addition to being the pioneers in the e-brokerage business in India, ICICI Securities is a technology-based firm offering a wide range of financial services including investment banking, institutional broking, retail broking, private wealth management and financial product distribution. The stock has a short listing...   READ MORE 

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NIFTY Mildly Penetrates The 50-Week MA; Moving Past These Levels is Necessary For A Sustained Up-Move

NIFTY Mildly Penetrates The 50-Week MA; Moving Past These Levels is Necessary For A Sustained Up-Move

It was a volatile end to the week as the NIFTY index oscillated in a 100-point range on Friday, finally settling with a modest loss after rebounding from the lower levels. Just like the week before, no major downsides were seen. The NIFTY just barely managed to pierce the 50-Week...   READ MORE 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Expect Breakdown from Rising Wedge

DP Weekly Wrap: Expect Breakdown from Rising Wedge

One of my favorite chart patterns is the wedge. Rising or falling, they arrive frequently and usually resolve predictably. On this chart there happen to be two rising wedge formations. The first one led us into the bull market top in September/October of 2018. It resolved downward, as expected,...   READ MORE 

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RATIO ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAJOR SHIFT OUT OF STOCKS AND INTO BONDS -- ALL BOND CATEGORIES OUTPERFORMED STOCKS SINCE OCTOBER -- TREASURIES ARE DOING BETTER THAN INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES --...

RATIO ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAJOR SHIFT OUT OF STOCKS AND INTO BONDS -- ALL BOND CATEGORIES OUTPERFORMED STOCKS SINCE OCTOBER -- TREASURIES ARE DOING BETTER THAN INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES -- WHILE HIGH YIELD JUNK BONDS ARE THE WEAKEST BOND CATEGORY

COMPARISON OF TWO VANGUARD FUNDS SHOWS BONDS IN THE LEAD ... In good times when investors are confident about the economy, they usually favor stocks over bonds. One of the ways we can tell when investors are starting to lose confidence is when they start favoring bond holdings over stocks. And...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Looking Outside the U.S. Stock Market

Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Looking Outside the U.S. Stock Market

* Big Markets in Big Downtrends. * Bullish Breadth Surge. * Counting New Highs on One Hand. * Vast Majority of Stocks in Downtrends. * A Return to the Breakdown. * A Potential Reversal Area. * Finding Pockets of Strength. * India Starts to Drag. * Indonesia Extends on Breakout. * New Zealand Holds above October Lows. * Singapore Dollar Surges....   READ MORE 

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Bear Markets and Drawdowns

Bear Markets and Drawdowns

The month of December 2018 was a bad month for the market; the rally in the last week of the month was nice but small compared to the month’s decline.  2019 has so far continued the upward move, so I thought it was time to show some data on...   READ MORE 

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Relative Rotation Graphs And Factor ETFs

Relative Rotation Graphs And Factor ETFs

It's Friday morning in Amsterdam and I just dropped my daughter off at school. On the way to my office, I usually stop at the local Coffee Company for a cappuccino and reading some, market-related, news, blogs etc. For some reason, I noticed a lot of talk and...   READ MORE 

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Correlation Suggests That We Monitor Treasury Yields Closely

Correlation Suggests That We Monitor Treasury Yields Closely

Market Recap for Thursday, January 10, 2019 There was both good and bad action on Thursday.  Yes, the bulls should be excited as a short-term price and trendline breakdown did not result in panic or a Volatility Index ($VIX) that surged.  Also, all of our major indices remained above their...   READ MORE 

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Crude Oil Surges, Energy Paces Wall Street Advance; Negative Divergences Loom

Crude Oil Surges, Energy Paces Wall Street Advance; Negative Divergences Loom

Market Recap for Wednesday, January 9, 2019 Crude oil ($WTIC, +5.18%) continued rolling higher on Wednesday, buoyed at least in part from its positive divergence.  Recently, I discussed the likelihood that crude oil prices would move back into the $50-$54 per barrel range and you can see from...   READ MORE 

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This DOW stock is pushing to new relative highs and rotates back into the leading quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph

This DOW stock is pushing to new relative highs and rotates back into the leading quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph

Visa is showing up, just, inside the leading quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph vs $INDU above. These images are zoomed in from the RRG holding all the 30 DJ Industrials stocks (benchmark $INDU). The tail in the chart on the left above shows 30 weeks of rotation and as...   READ MORE 

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Will PnF Light the Way in 2019

Will PnF Light the Way in 2019

As 2018 was getting underway, a January Buying Climax (BCLX) and a February Automatic Reaction (AR) turned a robust uptrend into a ‘Range-Bound’ market for most of the remainder of the year. Was this large trading range preparing to jump upward or cascade lower? In the fourth quarter the broad...   READ MORE 

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DP Alert: New ST BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards - LT BUY for Gold

DP Alert: New ST BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards - LT BUY for Gold

I took a peek at these new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signals on the DP Scoreboards. After view the charts, I came to the conclusion that, as Pat Benatar once put it, "It's a little too little, it's a little too late." If...   READ MORE 

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Perspective - 40 years of the Zweig Breadth Thrust - Weight of the Evidence

Perspective - 40 years of the Zweig Breadth Thrust - Weight of the Evidence

* Putting the Bounce into Perspective. * 23-day Performance Overshadows 9-day Surge. * 40 Years of the Zweig Breadth Thrust. * AD Percent for $SPX, $MID and $SML. * A Weight of the Evidence Approach. ... Putting the Bounce into Perspective ... As of Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 is up a whopping...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO THREE-MONTH LOW -- THAT'S BOOSTING COMMODITY PRICES WITH GOLD IN THE LEAD -- A WEAK DOLLAR IS ALSO BOOSTING RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF FOREIGN SHARES -- ESPECIALLY EMERG...

DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO THREE-MONTH LOW -- THAT'S BOOSTING COMMODITY PRICES WITH GOLD IN THE LEAD -- A WEAK DOLLAR IS ALSO BOOSTING RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF FOREIGN SHARES -- ESPECIALLY EMERGING MARKETS

DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO THREE MONTH LOW... The U.S. dollar has come under heavy selling pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index Fund (UUP) tumbing to the lowest level since last October. That's giving a boost to foreign currencies which are gaining ground today. That includes both...   READ MORE 

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Bear Market Rally Likely Nearing Its End

Bear Market Rally Likely Nearing Its End

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 8, 2019 It was another broad-based rally on Wall Street with 10 of 11 sectors finishing higher.  Small caps powered ahead 1.53% to lead the action, but the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained 1.09%, 0.97% and 1.08%...   READ MORE 

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Netflix Leads the FAANGs as Facebook Quietly Outperforms

Netflix Leads the FAANGs as Facebook Quietly Outperforms

Netflix was the first of the five FAANG stocks to peak in June 2018 and is now the first of the five to break its December high. Thus, Netflix is leading the FAANGs here in January because it is the only one with a higher high. Note that Netflix reports...   READ MORE 

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Exhausting Vixen Breath...(Or 'VIX and Breadth' Buying Exhaustion)

Exhausting Vixen Breath...(Or 'VIX and Breadth' Buying Exhaustion)

A few months ago, a viewer of MarketWatchers LIVE commented that, when I talk about my Climactic Indicator chart which includes both breadth and the $VIX, it often sounds like "vixen breath". I promised viewers today that I would write about my thoughts on these climactic indicators, so...   READ MORE 

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HDFC Standard Life - Preparing For A Move?

HDFC Standard Life - Preparing For A Move?

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd. (HDFCLIFE.IN) This stock has a rather short history. After listing in November 2017, it spent the first couple of months moving higher, then returned all those gains in the following months. It is said that chart patterns are fractal in nature; those patterns...   READ MORE 

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An Intermediate Oversold Condition Suggests That The December Low Is Likely To Hold For Several Months

An Intermediate Oversold Condition Suggests That The December Low Is Likely To Hold For Several Months

* Short/Intermediate Oversold Condition * High-Low Data Reaches an Extreme * The Bear is Still With Us Until It Isn’t As we all know, markets have a strong tendency to swing from excessive optimism to extremes of pessimism. During the last month, we have certainly seen a substantial amount of pessimism...   READ MORE 

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STOCK REBOUND CONTINUES -- PRICES RECOVER SOME LOSSES SUFFERED OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS BUT REMAIN IN DOWNTRENDS -- STOCK INDEXES APPROACH POTENTIAL OVERHEAD RESISTANCE BARRIERS

STOCK REBOUND CONTINUES -- PRICES RECOVER SOME LOSSES SUFFERED OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS BUT REMAIN IN DOWNTRENDS -- STOCK INDEXES APPROACH POTENTIAL OVERHEAD RESISTANCE BARRIERS

U.S. STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE JANUARY REBOUND ... Stock prices are trending higher again this morning which continues the rebound that started right after Christmas. Today's three price charts reflect that short-term improvement, while keeping them in a longer-range perspective. The main point of the charts is that all...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Discretionary Makes Relative Breakout, Poised To Lead In 2019

Consumer Discretionary Makes Relative Breakout, Poised To Lead In 2019

Market Recap for Monday, January 7, 2019 Crude oil prices ($WTIC, +1.17%) rallied on Monday, helping energy (XLE, +1.49%) continue its recent surge, but the day clearly belonged to consumer discretionary stocks (XLY, +2.26%) as retail (XRT, +3.10%) and home construction ($DJUSHB, +2.43%) were among...   READ MORE 

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VerSign Holds One Key Moving Average and Retakes Another

VerSign Holds One Key Moving Average and Retakes Another

The broad market environment remains rather negative overall with the S&P 500 well below its falling 200-day SMA and volatility increasing over the last few months. Note that the different environments were highlighted in ChartWatchers this weekend. After a sharp decline into Christmas, stocks rebounded over the last...   READ MORE 

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One Industry Group Has Quietly Been "Building" Relative Strength

One Industry Group Has Quietly Been "Building" Relative Strength

Market Recap for Friday, January 4, 2019 Friday was a HUGE day for the bulls as nonfarm payrolls came in well ahead of expectations (312,000 vs 180,000), which in no way reflects what the stock market has been saying since Q4 2018 began - that we were heading...   READ MORE