Before I look ahead to what we might expect in 2019, let me rewind for a bit and check out last year's forecast. Here's a recap, summarizing a few of my "expectations". I've graded my predictions with a slight curve. Feel free... READ MORE
S&P 500 earnings for 2018 Q3 have been finalized. The following chart shows us the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index. It shows us where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20... READ MORE
The broad market environment is perhaps the single most important factor to consider when selecting a trading or investing strategy for stocks. As with the weather, the broad market environment is subject to change and we need to adapt to current conditions. We should take extra precautions when it is... READ MORE
With the US stock market declining investors (may) need to look for alternatives in order to preserve capital. Sure enough, there are good opportunities in the US with bonds, IEF is doing very well, and cash is a very viable alternative if you do not "need" to be... READ MORE
With another short-covering rally, I am reminded that the primary benefit of using price charts is that they provide context. For example, I look at the TV and see that the Dow is up 800+ points, and I think holy cow what is going on? Do I need to completely... READ MORE
Most of you who read my blog know the name of our service is EarningsBeats.com. The name makes sense since, for many years during the bull market, we've zeroed in on those companies that beat earnings expectations that could be prime long candidates. Fast forward to today... READ MORE
“The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes…The examination of a losing trade is torturous but necessary to ensure that it will not happen again.” — Jesse Livermore This is the quote that introduces Chapter 10... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, January 3rd at 1:59pm ET. The price of Apple is plunging today after issuing a sales warning for the first quarter. The stock was already in trouble before that announcement. The... READ MORE
Throughout the past week, the markets continued to follow the falling trend line pattern resistance. Though no major downsides were witnessed, the NIFTY did not make any major up moves either. The larger part of the previous week saw a significant number of shorts being added, but no short covering... READ MORE
* It is What it Is * Breadth Indicator Review * High-Low Percent Rebounds * Vast Majority in Long-term Downtrends * Volatility is Increasing, Not Decreasing * Absolute Performance vs Relative Performance * Risk-Off Environment * Suggestions for Art's Charts ChartList ... It is What it Is ... There is no forecast to start 2019 because the signals... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, January 3, 2019 Just about every market-related discussion since Wednesday's close has centered around Apple (AAPL, -9.96%)....and for good reason. AAPL is a U.S. stock market icon. Some might argue it is THE icon. When they lowered their revenue guidance substantially... READ MORE
APPLE PLUNGES ON FIRST QUARTER WARNING ... The price of Apple is plunging today after issuing a sales warning for the first quarter. The stock was already in trouble before that announcement. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show Apple (AAPL) falling today to the lowest level since the middle of... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For January is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
Welcome to 2019! I was born in the 1940s and am delighted to be here. If you were a trend follower with reasonable stop placement, 2018 was a tough year. If you were a trend follower without reasonable stop placement, you are scared, if not panicky. If you were a... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, January 2, 2019 On a day filled with hope, as traders rang in the new year on Wall Street, the biggest news came after the market closed as Apple (AAPL) warned regarding its upcoming quarter. During the trading day, we saw resiliency for one of the... READ MORE
With the US stock market declining investors (may) need to look for alternatives in order to preserve capital. Sure enough, there are good opportunities in the US with bonds, IEF is doing very well, and cash is a very viable alternative if you do not "need" to be... READ MORE
**Special Announcement** Don't miss this Friday's DecisionPoint show at 4:30pm EST on StockCharts TV, where Carl will be joining me to discuss our outlook for 2019! During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, I showed viewers what the DP Scoreboards looked like at the beginning... READ MORE
With December complete, chartists can now examine monthly close-only charts for an assessment of the long-term trend and stock market risk. Spoiler: it is not a pretty picture. Before looking at the chart, let's review the concept behind Price Channels. Chartists can use Price Channels to mark the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, December 31, 2018 December 2018 was a rough month to end a very difficult Q4. It was very unusual in terms of historical perspective as we're accustomed to seeing mostly solid action in early December followed by a Santa Claus rally into year end.... READ MORE
* Two Failed Outside Bars * Long-Term Indicators Tipping to the Bullish Side * Gold and the Shares Perking Up Against Equities in General * Silver Setting Up for a Possible Major Breakout Just before Christmas, I pointed out that the gold price, especially the shares, had experienced an outside day. Going by that... READ MORE
The PSUBank Index has a shown sharp surge in its relative momentum against the broader CNX500 index. This keeps this index firmly in the leading quadrant of the Relative Rotation Graph, where it accompanies the NIFTY Infrastructure Index. The Container Corporation of India (CONCOR.IN) from the Infrastructure index and... READ MORE
The above chart shows the stocks/bonds ratio using monthly bars since 2004. IMHO this is one of the most useful charts to decide on an important portion of the asset allocation in your portfolio. Should you invest in stocks or in bonds. In other words, "Risk ON"... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, December 28, 2018 Let's start with the bright spots from Friday's market action. The more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 ended the session in positive territory, gaining 0.08% and 0.46%, respectively. They both closed higher for the third consecutive day... READ MORE
The last trading session of 2018 was rather dull, with the markets ending on a flat note. The year itself, however, stood in stark contrast to its last trading day. Throughout the previous year, the NIFTY was consistently affected by events both global and domestic in nature. These included, among... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded last week and recovered part of their losses from the prior week. Long black candlesticks formed the week before Christmas and most sector SPDRs recovered with long white candlesticks the following week. A black candlestick forms when the close is below the open, while a white candlestick forms... READ MORE
For stock indexes, 2018 started dramatically and ended with even more drama. In January a Buying Climax (BC) stopped the long term uptrend of stock indexes and a sharp Automatic Reaction (AR) produced an important Change of Character from a trending into a trading range market environment. This sequence of... READ MORE
Over the past week, the markets continued to deal with overhead resistances on expected lines. Once again, it was a volatile week, with the NIFTY oscillating in a wide range as it dealt with a couple of important resistance levels on the charts. The benchmark index has attempted to penetrate... READ MORE
On Friday the signal for the Utilities sector changed from BUY to NEUTRAL, making it the last of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to lose its bullish stance. NEUTRAL sounds kind of, well, neutral, but it is really a 'soft' SELL signal because the position changes... READ MORE
Well, what do you think of 2018 so far? As a trend follower, it has been difficult. Reminds me of 2011, which happened to be the worst year my 25-year-old model has ever had. Chart A shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average for all of 2011 with some data before... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, December 27, 2018 The final two hours on Wall Street yesterday was quite the finish. After languishing deep in red territory throughout much of the session, the bulls took complete charge into the close. The Dow Jones, down more than 600 points just past 2pm EST,... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, December 26, 2018 After gapping higher on Wednesday, our major indices retreated initially to lose all of its opening gains. The Dow Jones traded approximately 300 points higher right out of the gates, but within 90 minutes had lost those gains and was down 80 points.... READ MORE
Yesterday, on boxing day, the Dow jumped 1000 points from its 52-week low which, coincidentally, was also set yesterday. Never a dull moment. But, what does it mean? Looking at the weekly chart above, at least IMHO, it means only a (small) recovery of the damage that has been done... READ MORE
It's been a pretty interesting Christmas week so far. On Christmas Eve, Santa definitely stayed away as the market tumbled into deep lows. Today, however, it would appear that Santa finally arrived. Yes, Virginia, apparently there is a Santa Claus - for the market. So enjoy some holiday... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, December 24, 2018 It was an abbreviated session on Monday, but the losses were not abbreviated. The Dow Jones lost another 653 points, or 2.91%, while the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 posted losses of 2.71%, 2.21% and 1.95%... READ MORE
AD Percent for the S&P 500 dipped below -90% on Monday and this was the sixth reading below -90% this year. AD Percent equals advances less declines divided by total issues. Thus, if 25 stocks advance (5%) and 475 stocks decline (95%), AD Percent equals -90% ((25 -... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, December 21, 2018 Growth stocks remain under significant pressure as the stock market is quickly repricing them based on bear market rules. While I believe the sudden drop in so many critical areas simultaneously told us of the impending S&P 500 breakdown and ensuing... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 peaked at 1740 in mid August and fell below 1300 over the last 15 weeks. The index is now down 11 of the last 15 weeks and extremely oversold. Even though the long-term trend is clearly down, this extreme oversold condition could give way to a counter-trend... READ MORE
In my previous post, I highlighted both the Real-Estate and the Utilities sectors as (strong) outperformers during this weak period for stocks in general. This "Double + for Utilities and Real Estate on Relative Rotation Graph" pointed to the position inside the leading quadrant for both sectors on both... READ MORE
Before the start of this week, we had highlighted the possibility of NIFTY facing overhead resistance as it was inching higher. We also expected the week to remain much more volatile than normal. In line with this forecast, the week that went by remained highly volatile, with the index oscillating... READ MORE
Less than three months ago there was a great lament about how employers couldn’t fill job positions because of a shortage of job seekers. This week FedEx announced voluntary employee buyouts, presumably to reduce payroll. In view of this, I offer you the Swenlin Basic Economic Theory: Things get... READ MORE