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PREVIOUS INSTANCES OF FED TIGHTENING ACCOMPANIED RISING COMMODITY PRICES -- THE FED IS RAISING RATES NOW WHILE COMMODITIES ARE PLUNGING -- WEAK CHINESE MARKET IS PULLING COMMODITIES LOWER -- AND REFLECTS A SLOWING GLOBAL ECONOMY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LAST TWO YIELD CURVE INVERSION RESULTED FROM RISING COMMODITY PRICES ... My Wednesday morning message suggested that a sharp drop in the price of oil and other commodities argued for a more dovish tone from the Fed. That message also explained that previous Fed tightening cycles were usually done to combat...
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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Oversold is a Double-Edged Sword
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
* A Clear Signal on the Monthly Chart.
* Oversold is a Double-Edged Sword.
* Getting to Washout Levels (High-Low Percent).
* Quarterly Rate-of-Change Signals a Shift.
* VIX has Yet to Spike.
* Futuristic Food for Thought.
* Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList.
... A Clear Signal on the Monthly Chart ...
Even though we...
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We're Looking At A Category 3 Stock Market Hurricane Making Landfall
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, December 20, 2018
If you haven't noticed, I use a lot of weather analogies in describing the stock market. It's by design as forecasting the stock market has a lot of similarities to forecasting the weather. Meteorologists are often scrutinized as weather...
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DP Bulletin: One Lone BUY Signal Remains on the Scoreboards
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Today, the Dow finally logged its Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal. This signal was triggered when the 50-EMA crossed below the 200-EMA. The Scoreboards below are ugly. The remaining BUY signal will be gone on the final trading day of the month - I highly doubt the PMO will be...
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Fed Hikes, Promises More In 2019; Banks In Big Trouble
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, December 19, 2018
This was a Fed day that could have lasting damaging effects. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his band of cronies decided to ignore the one piece of data that's probably the best leading indicator - the U.S. stock market. The...
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Utilities are OK but it's better to avoid EIX
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Utilities sector is acting as a safe haven for a lot of investors that need to park their money in the stock market because they cannot, or are not allowed to, hold all or significant amounts of cash when markets are going down.
These are the periods when relative...
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DP Alert: A Year Without a Santa Claus?
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
You might be chuckling at the title which pays homage to the Rankin/Bass stop-motion animated classic A Year Without a Santa Claus. In the show, it takes two elves, a little boy and a young reindeer to prove to a despondent Santa that everyone does indeed misses him and...
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A Monster Momentum Shift in the 30-yr Yield
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was not long ago that the 30-yr T-Yield ($TYX) was breaking above a three year resistance line and the outlook for yields was bullish (bearish for bonds). Admittedly, I was in that camp. The tables have turned as the 30-yr Yield failed to hold the breakout and sliced below...
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The Fed Unnerves Gold Market
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
In my December Market Roundup webinar, I touched on the idea that the economy had begun to seriously slow down. Wednesday’s Fed action, actual and potential for next year, will amplify that process. The equity markets are obviously paying attention, but the increased probability of higher rates and a...
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THE FED CAN'T AFFORD TO MAKE A MISTAKE TODAY -- HIGHER SHORT-TERM RATES RISK AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE -- WHILE PLUNGING OIL PRICE SHOWS WEAKER INFLATION -- AND U.S. STOCKS ARE UNDERGOING A MAJOR TEST OF THEIR EARLY 2018 LOWS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TODAY IS A BIG DAY FOR THE FED -- AND FOR THE MARKETS ... Today is one of the most important Fed days in recent memory. That's because there's a lot riding on what it does this afternoon; or doesn't do. It's widely...
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On Fed Day, The Treasury Market Is Painting A Bearish Picture
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Special Event
At 4:30pm EST today, I'll be joining John Hopkins, President of EarningsBeats.com, for a special "2019 Stock Market Outlook" webinar. It's a FREE event where I'll be discussing likely market direction in 2019 and areas of the market...
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SystemTrader - Aggregating Trends and Oversold Conditions - Finance Sector is Most Oversold
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
* Setting the Stage.
* Defining Trend and Condition.
* Running the Scan.
* Uptrends versus Downtrends.
* Overbought versus Oversold.
* Uptrend and Oversold.
* Uptrend and Mildly Oversold.
* Scanning for RSI Ranges.
* Conclusions.
... Setting the Stage
... Instead of testing an actual system, this System Trader article will show scatter plots for S&P 500...
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Investors Don't Like to Lose
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
Everyone believed they had a sound approach to investment during the extended bull market of 2009-2018. When everything’s gaining in price, slowly and steadily, it’s easy for confidence in your process to become overconfidence in your process.
To quote a phrase, “Never confuse brains with a bull market....
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ITC and Adani Ports
by Milan Vaishnav,
Founder and Technical Analyst, EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae
Before I begin, let me wish all our readers, friends and colleagues a very Happy Holidays and the best of times to come in 2019!
The Indian Equity markets have witnessed immense volatility over the past couple of days. Amid this volatile environment, it makes sense to adopt a stock-specific...
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Global Overview of 2018 with Seven PerfCharts - On Trend Preview
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
... Today's show, On Trend, provides a review of 2018, which is the year of few winners (so far). With less than two weeks before yearend, I would not expect too much to change. The show starts with seven PerfCharts to focus on seven different groups around the globe....
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It Was Just Another Manic Monday
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, December 17, 2018
Every component stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on Monday as the index dropped another 500 points. The S&P 500 lost major closing price support at 2581, crude oil ($WTIC) threatened to break below $50 per barrel, small caps...
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Catch A Falling Knife?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The Market Remains Oversold
* More Trend Damage Triggered
* Key Ratios Have Just Broken to New Lows
As a kid, I used to love building sand castles and defending them against the ensuing wave action. If the tide was coming in, however, it always proved to be a fool’s errand...
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Momentum Turns for Big Blue
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
IBM is one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year with an 18% decline year-to-date - and it could get worse.
First and foremost, the long-term trend is down because the stock recorded a 52-week low in late October, the 50-day moving average is...
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S&P 500 Nearing Significant Breakdown, Bull Market Running Out Of Steam
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, December 14, 2018
The U.S. stock market suffered another big blow to its current 9+ year bull market on Friday. Culprits for the selling included Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, -10.30%) in the healthcare space (XLV, -3.37%), easily the worst performing sector, Adobe Systems...
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Article Summaries: 9/2018 - 12/2018
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
Periodically I write an article, such as this one, that reviews the past few months of articles. Why on Earth would I do this? Primarily for two reasons. One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles. Two...
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PMO Analysis - Wrong Direction and Not Oversold Enough
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) is a great measure of acceleration/deceleration of price for individual entities. Combining each component's PMO readings within an index is especially advantageous in allowing us to understand how overbought or oversold it is in three timeframes. Although readings are oversold, they are...
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Want To Know The Difference Between A Correction And A Bear Market?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Not a whole lot.
I guess there are three primary differences. First, there's the percentage drop as corrections are generally considered to see a drop of less than 20%, while bear markets tend to see declines well in excess of 20%. Second, a bear market tends to last...
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LONGER-RANGE INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH FOR U.S. STOCKS -- RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS SHOULD DETERMINE IF STOCKS ARE IN A BEAR MARKET -- STOCKS OFF TO BAD DECEMBER START -- FAILURE OF SANTA CLAUS RALLY TO SHOW WOULD BE A BAD SIGN FOR THE NEW YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEEKLY S&P 500 CHART CONTINUES TO LOOK TOPPY... There's a reason why every short-term rally attempt over the past couple of months has failed. That's because longer-range indicators have turned bearish and remain so. It's more difficult for bounces on daily charts...
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The Yield Curve And The Business Cycle
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The "Yield Curve" is a term often used in finance and refers to the relationship between (government) bonds with various maturities.
The "Normal" relationship between the yield on various maturities is that the longer you lend money to someone. In this case the US government, the...
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Consider This New Year's Stock Market Resolution And Change Your Financial Future
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
First, I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
2018 has been a wild ride with volatility returning to extreme levels. Unfortunately, 2019 looks like it will get even worse. I believe we're in a bear market and, at EarningsBeats.com,...
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Support Levels in Downtrends? Fuggedaboutit!
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
As obvious as it seems, lower lows and lower highs are the order of the day in a downtrend. Thus, prices are expected to break prior lows and continue lower when the trend is down. Taking this downtrend concept one step further, one could also assume that support levels within...
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Week Ahead: Nifty continues to trade below key resistance levels despite strong pullback
by Milan Vaishnav,
Founder and Technical Analyst, EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae
In our previous weekly note, we noted that we were expecting a rough ride for the Markets. Over the course of the last week, the markets dealt with the state election results and the sudden resignation of the RBI Governor. Volatility ruled the roost, with the NIFTY seeing swings in...
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DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market? Never Seen One.
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The chart below shows the entire period during which I have been involved in stock market analysis, and, as you can see, the title of this article definitely does not apply to me. If a decline of -20% or more qualifies as a bear market, then I have experienced seven...
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Russell 2000 Small Cap Index and the Dow Transports Fall to 52-Week Lows
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, December 14th at 2:32pm ET.
Two of the earliest warning signs since October that the stock market was in trouble was the fact that economically-sensitive stock groups like small caps and...
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HEAVY SELLING PUSHES U.S. STOCK INDEXES NEAR DECEMBER LOWS -- EARLY 2018 LOWS ARE NEXT -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX AND THE DOW TRANSPORTS FALL TO 52-WEEK LOWS -- SO DOES THE S&P RETAIL SPDR -- THAT'S A BAD SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKET AND THE ECONOMY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEADING BACK TO EARLY 2018 LOWS... After a unimpressive bounce this week, stock prices are ending week under heavy selling pressure. The first three charts show the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite nearing new lows for the month of December, which puts them on...
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Portfolio Management and Asset Allocation: Supercharge These Using Powerful Morningstar Tools
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
The most important thing in my life is not money — it is my time and my health. These two items are far more important to me than monetary assets. As a result, I’m always focused on how I spend my time and less on how I spend my money....
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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Beware of the Next Dubious Support Level
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
* Support Levels are Dubious in Downtrends.
* Continuation Patterns after Breakdowns.
* Mid-caps and Small-caps Lead Lower.
* Bonds Catch Bid as Stocks Fall.
* 10-yr Yield and Oil Fall Together.
* Gold Ignores Dollar Strength.
* Is it Really Worth It?
* XLU Hits New High.
* XLP Corrects within Uptrend.
* XLV Consolidates after New High.
* Notes...
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Here's A Bear Market Chart You Can't Afford To Miss!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, December 13, 2018
The U.S. stock market attempted to stage rallies on Thursday, initially in the morning session and then again in the final hour. But astute technicians that follow more than the headline Dow Jones and S&P 500 numbers realized it was...
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STOCKS ARE GOING BACK ON THE DEFENSIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SHORT-TERM BOUNCE HAS RUN ITS COURSE ... This week's modest rebound in stocks has been unimpressive and appears to have run its course. Lack of upside volume and weak breadth also show that investors have stayed on the sidelines, or have sold into this week's rebound. Sector...
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Breadth Remains Weak on Reversal Attempt
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
* An Attempt at a Candlestick Reversal.
* Breadth Fails to Impress.
* More Stocks Breaking 50-day EMA.
* On Trend on StockCharts TV.
... An Attempted Candlestick Reversal
... The S&P 500 firmed over the last few days, but breadth remains weak overall. The first chart shows candlesticks over the last few months...
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A Great Day Turns Good With Afternoon Selling; Internet Stocks Bottoming?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, December 12, 2018
The opening gap higher on Wednesday added to the recent stock market advance and the bulls stretched those early morning gains into the afternoon session. But much of those intraday profits faded as the session wore on and an across-the-board advance really didn&...
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Oh WELL... What Can I Say?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the Relative Rotation Graph, the Real-estate sector is one of the better performing sectors vis-a-vis the S&P 500 index.
The RRG above shows the rotation of all the stocks in XLRE against XLRE. This gives us a picture of the relative positions for all these stocks against...
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MONDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL DAY MAY HAVE SIGNALLED SHORT-TERM BOTTOM -- THAT COULD LEAD TO DECEMBER REBOUND TO OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- A STUDY OF SMALLER OR EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEXES SUGGESTS A RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS MAY HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 MAY BE FORMING SHORT-TERM BOTTOM... My message from last Friday suggested that the S&P 500 was likely to drop below its October low, which could lead to a retest of its early 2018 lows (more on that last point shortly). Chart 1 shows Monday&...
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Mind the Gaps in L Brands
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
A long-term downtrend, two gaps down and a move back below the falling 200-day could spell trouble for L Brands.
The stock has been quite volatile since summer, but the overall trend remains down. LB hit a 52-week low in early September, the 50-day SMA (not shown) is below the...
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Double + For Utilities And Real Estate On Relative Rotation Graph
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The market keeps throwing us curve balls on a daily basis. The Relative Rotation Graph above translates these curve balls into (sector-) rotational patterns.
The weekly chart above shows continuing strength for Utilities and Real Estate as they continue to move higher on both axes of the RRG.
Staples and...
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