* Biotech and Defense/Aerospace Show Leadership. * Creating a ChartList with ETF Holdings. * 3 Defense-Aerospace Charts to Watch. * 3 Biotech Charts to Watch. Chartists looking for bullish stock setups can use industry group ETFs as the first filter. It is easy to find ETF components, upload them to a ChartList and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, August 29, 2018 It was another ho-hum day of records on Wall Street with the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all closing at all-time record highs for the 4th consecutive session. The Dow Jones has yet to clear its January 2018 record high... READ MORE
The last time all four of the DecisionPoint Scoreboards were completely "green" (or on BUY signals in all three time frames as far as price trend and momentum/condition) was back on 11/6/2017. It lasted only ONE day when the SPX whipsawed back into a PMO... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCK ETFS ARE FINALLY BOUNCING ... Before leaving on vacation on August 15, I expressed concern about the fact that foreign stock ETFs were lagging too far behind the U.S. which could threaten the uptrend in the S&P 500 which was nearing a test of its January... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, August 28, 2018 U.S. stocks extended their winning streak deeper into record territory on Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed in record territory for the third consecutive session. While the gain was very slight (+0.03%), it still keeps the bulls in charge -... READ MORE
* A Selling Climax and Retest for Broadcom. * Analog Devices, Qorvo and Semtech. * Danaher Extends String of Higher Lows. A Selling Climax for Broadcom Broadcom (AVGO) hit a potential reversal zone on a selling climax and could be poised for a rebound. First and foremost, I readily admit the Broadcom is... READ MORE
Chips are leading the market again as the broad-based Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) broke out of a triangle consolidation and hit a new high. A new high in this cyclical group is positive for the technology sector, the Nasdaq and the broader market. First note that XSD has 34 components and... READ MORE
Gold began an uptrend in 2001 which persisted for more than 10 years. At the conclusion of that trend, gold had a classic Buying Climax (BCLX) which led to a Change of Character. For the last 5 years gold has made no upward progress. Is gold getting ready to resume... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, August 27, 2018 It was an all-around solid day on Wall Street to begin the final week of August. And it all occurred on Monday, which historically has been the worst calendar day of the week, particularly Mondays that fall during the second half of calendar... READ MORE
On Friday, the Dow finally saw its weekly PMO cross above its signal line and trigger a long awaited BUY signal. The SPX also added a new PMO BUY signal on its daily chart on Friday. Today, the OEX generated a ST PMO BUY signal. I had thought the NDX... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph shows the rotation of the Health Care sector over the last five weeks against SPY. The dimmed trails are the other US sectors. The strong rotation from improving into leading at a steady positive RRG-Heading (0-90 degrees) suggests that further improvement against SPY is likely. In... READ MORE
The unadjusted 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (_TLT) surged to resistance on Friday and backed off on Monday. The long-term trend is down and this resistance level could mark a near term top. First note that the chart shows unadjusted prices for TLT by preceding the symbol with an underscore (_TLT)... READ MORE
* The longer-term picture argues for lower yields * Deflationary forces gain the upper hand * Bond yields at crucial short-term support * UK Yields in a life or death struggle The longer-term picture argues for lower yields Earlier in the month I wrote an article pointing out that many bond yields had reached... READ MORE
Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles. Why on Earth would I do this? Primarily for two reasons. One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles. Two is that my articles... READ MORE
* Software Is Red Hot. * Microsoft, ServiceNow and Tableau. * HACK Hits a New High. * Qualys and Proofpoint Bounce off Support. Software Is Red Hot The software group is part of the technology sector and this industry group is red hot. Several key stocks in this group hit 52-week highs last week... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, August 24, 2018 The boring stock market months of July, August and September just got a lot more exciting. Yesterday, the benchmark S&P 500 did something it's never done before. It closed above 2873. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 also closed at... READ MORE
On Friday SPY made new, all-time intraday and closing highs, exceeding the records set on Tuesday. The daily PMO has been very flat and holding at around +1 since the end of July. This summarizes the steady price rise during that period and does not present a problem. There is,... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, August 23, 2018 Technology (XLK, +0.22%) was the only sector to finish in positive territory on Thursday. The remaining sectors were lower, led by materials (XLB, -0.68%), energy (XLE, -0.47%) and financials (XLF, -0.46%). The result was losses on all of our... READ MORE
* Market Overview * Majority of Stocks in Up Trends * New Highs Expand in $SPX, $MID and $SML * An Unenthusiastic, but Steady Advance * Current Uptrend > January High * Small-caps Continue to Lead * Retail Powers Consumer Discretionary * XLK Edges above Flag Line (plus XLC) * Regional Banks Lead Finance Sector * XLI Extends Upswing (plus... READ MORE
Today I was alerted to a new Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal on USO. This signal is triggered when the 5-EMA crosses above the 20-EMA. When I went to take a look at the chart, I noted some very bullish characteristics that I thought I'd share. You'... READ MORE
In my previous article called Weight of the Evidence (WoEv) I compared my Weight of the Evidence with Tushar Chande’s Chande Trend Meter (CTM). I also mentioned I was happy that Tushar had this indicator since I cannot divulge the exact details of my Weight of the Evidence. A... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, August 22, 2018 Stock market action was bifurcated here in the U.S. on Wednesday as NASDAQ stocks led to the upside. The small cap rally continued with the Russell 2000 closing at a second consecutive all-time high. But both the Dow Jones and S&... READ MORE
We've now entered the longest bull market on record when counted from the 2009 lows to the highs of yesterday. While there are mixed opinions whether it will hold up much longer, our DP Scoreboards and intermediate-term indicators are still far too bullish to put me in the... READ MORE
The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) has been locked in a trading range the last few months, but the big trend is still up and a recent candlestick reversal could signal the start of an extended advance. It is important to keep perspective, even when looking at a short-term pattern. In the... READ MORE
* Oil Bounces off Support * XLE: Support Break or Oversold Opportunity? * Biotechs Get a Bounce (IBB, XBI) * Schwab Firms at Support * Stocks to Watch: GSP, FFIV, TXN * On Trend Highlights and Link Oil Bounces off Support The Light Crude Continuous Contract ($WTIC) fell over 10% from early July to mid August,... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, August 21, 2018 Despite some selling late in the day, it was mostly a bullish day on Wall Street. The two sectors that lagged were defensive sectors - utilities (XLU, -0.72%) and consumer staples (XLP, -0.71%). Leading the market higher were consumer discretionary (XLY,... READ MORE
The NDX's PMO is still in decline. The SPX and OEX have rising PMOs, but no short-term PMO BUY signals. However, the Dow has recaptured its PMO BUY signal on the daily chart. The Dow may seem to be recovering more quickly, but honestly it didn't... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, August 20, 2018 Leadership from technology (XLK, -0.15%) was lacking, but strength in consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.71%), materials (XLB, +0.70%), energy (XLE, +0.67%) and industrials (XLI, +0.67%) was more than enough to offset areas of weakness as all of our major... READ MORE
Note I'm still traveling so my blog article today will focus on my Monday Setups for this week. I'll return to my "normal" blog postings regarding market action, outlook, historical tendencies, etc. tomorrow. Monday, August 20th Since reporting excellent quarterly earnings results in mid-June,... READ MORE
The Health Care SPDR (XLV) moved into the sector lead with a 52-week high this week. As far as the charts are concern, the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) and XLV are the only two sector SPDRs hitting fresh highs. XLV gets the edge because it is up around 11% year-to-date,... READ MORE
* Market Overview. * A Bull Market for the S&P 500. * IJR Leads IWM and the Rest. * S&P 500 Leads New High List. * Tech, Healthcare and Industrials Lead New High List. * XLC Starts Trading. * XLU and IYR Extend Breakouts. * Cloud Computing ETF Forms Bull Flag. * Regional Bank SPDR... READ MORE
Facebook (FB) has been an internet and stock market leader for the last five years, but I believe the run is over. Not only did FB report quarterly revenues that missed Wall Street consensus estimates for the first time in more than four years, but they also lowered future operating... READ MORE
This week the market was rocking and rolling with large price swings. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards reflect new negative momentum for each of the indexes, but after logging those Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals, the market did an about-face and began to pull PMOs back up or slow their descent.... READ MORE
Charts are sometimes a mish-mash of contrary messages. As a general rule Wyckoffians will attempt to avoid these situations. But they can be valuable case studies. Residential Construction has been a Relative Strength (RS) laggard during all of this year after a surging climactic run in 2017. See the classic... READ MORE
The first rule of trading is to stay on the right side of the broad market trend. There are different indexes and indicators we can use to determine the broad market trend, but few are as efficient as the S&P 500 and its 12-month EMA. The chart below... READ MORE
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Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, August 16th at 2:12pm ET. U.S. stock indexes are having an unusually strong day. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 400 points (1.6%) in... READ MORE
On an options expiration week we normally expect low volatility, and that is what we got this week. Despite somewhat dramatic, but opposite, moves on Wednesday and Thursday, the SPY trading range for the week was a little over two percent, and the difference between the weekly closing high and... READ MORE
The walls of advantage once held by institutional traders over individual investors have come crashing down. Emerging from the dust, there now marches an entire army of real advantages that individual investors hold over their formerly superior big brothers. In the worlds of fundamental information, charting tools and trading costs,... READ MORE
Note I'll be traveling and on vacation this week, so my blog articles will focus on very brief topics regarding current market themes or my own trading strategies. I'll return to my "normal" blog postings regarding market action, outlook, historical tendencies, etc. when I... READ MORE