* Performance Overview. * Correlations and Volatility Rise. * Scanning and Measuring Participation. * Bulk of the Evidence Remains Bearish. * S&P 500 Battles 200-day. * Dow Theory and Trends. * Healthcare and Utilities Hold Up. * Software, Defense and Health-related ETFs. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. ... Correlations and Volatility Rise ... The major... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, October 18, 2018 Impulsive selling seemed to return to Wall Street on Thursday as the Dow Jones had a couple of intraday bouts where the index declined 200-300 points in just an hour or so. That sent the Volatility Index ($VIX, +15.29%) scurrying higher once... READ MORE
THE DOW RETESTS 200-DAY LINE... My last two messages spelled out a lot of technical reasons that are bearish for the stock market, and increase the odds that the nine-year bull run is ending. Besides the heavy selling that's taken place during October, my weekend message showed a... READ MORE
* Internet bubble * Credit spreads * Rising interest rates * Contagion from abroad On Wednesday, I joined Tom and Erin on MarketWatchers LIVE and enjoyed a spirited discussion on what signs might foreshadow an extension to last week’s decline, or even signal a bear market. The four areas I cited were the... READ MORE
* Trading SPY with S&P 500 Signals. * Long and Long-Short Backtests. * Smoothing to Reduce Whipsaws. * Testing Different SMA Combinations. * Bollinger Bands, Envelopes and Keltners. * Backtesting the Filters. * Final Thoughts and a Suggestion. ... Introduction Yesterday I put the 200-day SMA through the wringer with some testing using the S&... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, October 17, 2018 There was a lot of back and forth action in our major indices on Wednesday. For instance, in the span of just 2 1/2 hours, the Dow Jones lost more than 300 points, then recovered them all, moving slightly into positive territory.... READ MORE
When markets are in transition and the bigger picture needs our attention it is always good to keep an eye on the yield curve. The absolute yield levels of the various maturities on the curve, starting at 3-Months all the way out to 20+ years are important to monitor. But... READ MORE
A mere two weeks ago, the Sector Signal Scoreboard (2nd slide below) was all "green" as each sector was on IT Trend Model BUY signals. The DP Scoreboards below were completely green at the beginning of September. Today both are dotted with Neutral signals (and some SELL signals... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE HEALTHCARE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD ... Healthcare has emerged as the market's strongest sector. Not only has healthcare been the market's strongest sector over the last month, the last three months, and the last six months. It's now the top performer for the year.... READ MORE
The 200-day SMA acts as a benchmark we can use to compare price movements. We can use the 200-day SMA to compare the current decline in the S&P 500 against past declines. We can also use the 200-day SMA to compare the decline in the S&P... READ MORE
* A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? * Ranges Wreak Havoc on Moving Average Systems. * Backtesting Five Indexes. * More Whipsaws than Strong Trends. * Other Uses for the 200-day SMA... ... The S&P 500 broke its 200-day SMA with a sharp decline last Thursday and then rebounded over the last three days to reclaim this... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, October 16, 2018 Wall Street welcomed a trend day to at least temporarily pause the violent downtrend we've experienced the past couple weeks. A trend day typically starts with a gap higher and then gains are extended throughout the session. We clearly saw that... READ MORE
Too often I see a basic misunderstanding between Momentum, Rate of Change, and Price Difference. Let me try to make it clear. They are essentially the same thing. Momentum Momentum deals with the rate at which prices are changing, kind of like acceleration and deceleration. Here is the formula for... READ MORE
The general market conditions for the various major indexes have been commented on extensively by other commentators here on the site. There is no doubt that there is more rumble in the markets now than we have seen for a long time. IMHO this makes it an interesting time for... READ MORE
The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since early July and pierced its 200-day moving average last week. Chartists looking for stocks that held up better during this decline can use these levels for comparison. Stocks that did not break below their August lows and 200-day moving... READ MORE
I seize this opportunity to welcome you all to this Blog "Analyzing India". It is beyond all doubts that India remains one of the most important global markets. Out of all the Emerging Markets (EMs), the world's largest democracy certainly remains the most promising one. As... READ MORE
This morning on MarketWatchers LIVE, Tom and I were very cautious regarding today's rally. John Murphy and Arthur Hill are bearish. Carl is undecided but erring on the side of caution. So it was somewhat surprising and cause for a chuckle to see and hear the ridiculously excited... READ MORE
It is my distinct pleasure to welcome Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA to the StockCharts family. As our newest contributing author, Milan will be sharing his analysis of the Indian markets each week through the "Analyzing India" blog. We are thrilled to have Milan on board and greatly look... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, October 15, 2018 A late afternoon selling binge pushed our major indices into negative territory by the close, with the lone exception being the small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT), which avoided a relative breakdown vs. the benchmark S&P 500. Small caps have been languishing... READ MORE
I've been updating these Scoreboards frequently starting on October 5th. Three very important signal changes arrived Friday and today. We don't generally see many updates to the Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), but on Friday both the SPX and OEX followed the NDX and logged SELL... READ MORE
The broad market environment is a bit shaky right now, but Ultra Beauty (ULTA) is holding up relatively well with a normal pullback after a big breakout. First and foremost, the stock is in a long-term uptrend after a breakout, surge and 52-week high in September. Also note that the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, October 12, 2018 Finally, Wall Street saw buying pressure to end a trading session. That certainly felt great psychologically, although as I point out below, I doubt that the short-term bottom is in. It's possible, but the odds favor another short-term plunge. For now,... READ MORE
I was panicked. On my previous training flight, I had put the Cessna 172 into a nose dive. That’s right, in my attempt to demonstrate a power-off stall, I had literally pointed the airplane directly at the ground. Which is not a good idea if you want to remain... READ MORE
S&P 500 HOLDS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... A stock rebound on Friday prevented a more serious market breakdown. That's because it allowed the S&P 500, and some other market gauges, to hold at or above their 200-day moving averages (Chart 1). That included the Dow and... READ MORE
"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms." -- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day) To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be... READ MORE
* Performance Overview. * Fattening Up and Surviving Drawdowns. * Breadth Indicators Turn Bearish. * Measuring and Comparing Downside Momentum. * S&P 500 hits Oversold Extreme. * The New Normal for QQQ? * Pullbacks within Uptrends: XLV, XLK, XLY, XLU. * Charts Going Nowhere: XLE, XLI. * Chart Break Downs: XLC, XLP, XLRE, XLF, XLB. * Notes from... READ MORE
Special Note I will be speaking to the Charlotte Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) tomorrow Saturday, October 13th at 10:00am EST. I plan to discuss how to evaluate the sustainability of a bull market, relative strength and gap trading strategies. The first meeting is FREE... READ MORE
The Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal generated today on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) replaced a May 9, 2018 BUY signal. It was another exhausting day as we watched the correction continue with prices free falling lower. Yesterday I pointed out the climactic breadth and VIX readings and suggesting a selling... READ MORE
GROWTH AND VALUE STOCKS ARE BOTH FALLING... One of the explanations for this week's big selloff is that the upside breakout in bond yields is hurting growth stocks. That's been especially true of consumer discretionary and technology stocks which suffered the biggest losses this month. Chart... READ MORE
* The big global picture * US equities are violating key trend lines * Financials experience false upside breakout * Energy triggers a false positive * Bubble-prone e-commerce on the verge of being pricked! Last week, I wrote about the possibility of an October “surprise.” I pointed out that such an event is completely random... READ MORE
When markets around the world start to rumble it's usually a good exercise how all these moves compare against one another. The Relative Rotation Graph shows the relative picture for a number of major world equity markets against the Dow Jones World Index as the benchmark. The Indian... READ MORE
Special Note I will be speaking to the Charlotte Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) this Saturday, October 13th at 10:00am EST. I plan to discuss how to evaluate the sustainability of a bull market, relative strength and gap trading strategies. The first meeting is FREE... READ MORE
This article is an extended and updated version of the article that appeared in last weekend's Chartwatchers newsletter. The Indian $NIFTY Index dropped out of an almost three-year uptrend at the close of last week. The rising support line that started at the low in early 2016 did... READ MORE
* Broadest Decline Since April. * 16 Stocks Bucked the Selling Pressure. * Scan Code for Advancing Issues. * The Russell 2000 and Moving Averages. * A Shift from Growth to Value? ... A Lopsided Move ... Chartists can measure participation using the AD Percent indicators. AD Percent equals the number of advances less the number of... READ MORE
We had another change to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. The Short-Term Trend Model initiated a Neutral signal on the Dow (chart is below Scoreboards) when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while above the 50-EMA. Weakness and fear abound, but there could be some relief on the way given the... READ MORE
After a day like this, the first question I ask is where is support? That question is not fully answered on this daily chart, but there is something worth noting here. Volume for SPY was huge -- 248% of the 250-day average -- but SPY is a trading instrument and... READ MORE
After 45+ years as a technical analyst I have found that this breed of folks comes in many sizes and flavors. I can write about each of them simply because I have at one time or another been there, done that, and still doing it. In doing this I’ll... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) LEADS MARKET LOWER... Stock indexes are all under selling pressure again this morning. As has been the case of late, the technology-dominated Nasdaq market has been leading the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Nasdaq 100 QQQ Trust falling to the lowest... READ MORE
Special Note I will be speaking to the Charlotte Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) this Saturday, October 13th at 10:00am EST. I plan to discuss how to evaluate the sustainability of a bull market, relative strength and gap trading strategies. The first meeting is FREE... READ MORE
Walmart (WMT) is making waves again with a massive breakout in August and a small breakout on Tuesday. WMT underperformed the market the first half of the year with a 25% decline from the January high to the May low. The stock firmed in May, began rising in June and... READ MORE