* XLF at Moment of Truth * Three Stocks and a Third of XLF * August-September Leaders are Oversold * Understanding the Chandelier Exit * SPY and QQQ Join Oversold Parade * 9 Oversold Setups and 1 Example * Stocks to Watch: HOLX, VRSK, AMJ, WMT ... The Financials SPDR (XLF) seems like a dangerous sector to be... READ MORE
* The US market viewed from abroad * Resource based sectors in general are under-performing * Defensive sectors are generally improving * Ratio between a late and early performing sector is at a critical juncture Back in August I wrote an article pointing out that we might be in the early stages of a... READ MORE
Another BUY signal is lost on the DP Scoreboard Summary. The OEX joins the SPX and NDX with a new ST Trend Model Neutral Signal. Interestingly, today the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQEW) logged a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal. Does this portend the same for the NDX? The... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, October 8, 2018 Consumer staples (XLP, +1.38%) and real estate (XLRE, +1.29%) helped to power Monday's reversal, but that was not enough to turn around the fortunes for the NASDAQ, which still dropped more than 50 points as technology (XLK, -1.13%... READ MORE
Just a quick bulletin for my readers. The SPX just triggered a Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. The 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while the 20-EMA was above the 50-EMA which generated the Neutral signal v. a SELL signal. Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting!... READ MORE
In March of 2017 the Health Care Sector (XLV) emerged from a large Reaccumulation structure into a fresh new uptrend. Much has happened since then. Let’s update the status of this uptrend. After a sustained advance from 2009 to 2015 the trend stopped and a Reaccumulation formed. This trend... READ MORE
Last week was tough on stocks as the S&P 500 SPDR declined around 1%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF fell 3% and the Biotech iShares plunged 4.5%. Despite a rough week, note that some 180 stocks in the S&P 500 closed higher and bucked the selling... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, October 5, 2018 There was good news and bad news Friday on the volatility front. The Volatility Index ($VIX) hit 17.36 intraday on Friday, the highest level of expected volatility since the late-June swoon, and it closed another 4% higher after a big spike on... READ MORE
* Defining the Broad Market Environment. * Measuring Participation. * Uptrends Versus Downtrends. * Measuring Market Leadership. * Weight of the Evidence. ... The Broad Market Environment ... For a long time now, I have been using three breadth indicators to define the broad market environment, bull market or bear market. As with trend-following, this system will... READ MORE
We're approaching another earnings season, setting up trading opportunities in the normally bullish fourth quarter. While we favor waiting to see quarterly earnings reports and the market's reaction to those reports, we also know many of you try to trade companies prior to their better-than-expected reports.... READ MORE
It was a brutal week for many areas of the stock market, but mostly those areas that have led the charge for so long. Stocks that for one to two years or more rarely saw a significant pullback suddenly couldn't find buyers this week. Unfortunately, that's... READ MORE
The BUY signals are starting to peel away on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The Dow which has been the most stout, but after the corrective move of the past two days, it couldn't hang on to its "all green" Scoreboard. Technology, as most know, has been hit... READ MORE
Utilities are not the most exciting stocks in the world, but the Utilities SPDR (XLU) is the third best performing sector since February and the second best performing sector last week. The could have further to run. Let's look at the charts. The first chart shows weekly bars... READ MORE
The Indian $NIFTY Index dropped out of an almost three-year uptrend at the close of last week. The rising support line that started at the low in early 2016 did not manage to hold up and was clearly broken during last week's market action. This move changes the... READ MORE
The root cause of the Financial Crisis was real estate speculation combined with Wall Street's perennial, casual disregard for other people's money. After the real estate market crashed, the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was put forth in order to see that real estate speculators were... READ MORE
A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING BROKEN... Stocks continue the retreat that began after bond yields reached multiyear highs at midweek. Bond yields are hitting new highs again today. As was the case yesterday, consumer cyclicals and technology are the two worst sector performers. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, October 5th at 2:02pm ET. Tuesday's message showed the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index being the first of the major market indexes to fall below its 50-day line, and... READ MORE
* Performance Overview. * The Perfect Storm or Just Coincidence? * Working with Assumptions and Predictions. * We've Seen this Movie Before (QQQ). * New Lows Increase. * More Uptrends than Downtrends. * XLC Reverses Counter-trend Bounce. * XLF Bounces off Support. * XLI Holds Strong. * XLE Remains with Breakout. * XLY Becomes Short-term Oversold. * Notes from the... READ MORE
* Conditions that feed a crash * Rising rates * Emerging markets could be the triggering mechanism * Market breadth not so hot * Is the e-commerce bubble bursting? Conditions that feed a crash October started off as just a continuation of September’s dull price activity. However, knowing that the month of October has... READ MORE
After yesterday's close (10/4) I ran a Relative Rotation Graph of the Top-10 Market Movers inside the S&P-500 index. One of the names that popped up as potentially interesting was AT&T (T) as it is inside the improving quadrant and moving towards the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, October 4, 2018 While we've seen plenty of market rotation over the past several months, there hasn't been much outright selling. Yesterday changed that. The NASDAQ recovered off of its intraday lows a bit to "only" close down 1.81%... READ MORE
Well that didn't last long. The NDX had finally joined the Dow with a Scoreboard complete with BUY signals on Friday. Today's pullback erased that as the PMO was yanked downward and back under its signal line. Interestingly, the NDX is the only Scoreboard index that... READ MORE
RETAILERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... Tuesday's message showed retail stocks under selling pressure. That selling is continuing today. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) nearing a test of its July/August lows and maybe even its 200-day moving average (red line). The Tuesday message also... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, October 3, 2018 The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) did the inevitable - it closed above 3.11% and the TNX now resides at a level not seen since 2011. There will be those who say that higher interest rates will be the beginning of our... READ MORE
One of the names that popped up today on my alert for potential "Turtle Soup" setups is KIM. After opening up the chart for further inspection I noticed an interesting situation. It is very clear that the stock is in a trading range since June. The upper boundary... READ MORE
No new changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since last week's PMO BUY signal on the NDX. Hard to believe the OEX and SPX haven't followed suit with the Dow and NDX. The OEX is nearing the BUY signal and should trigger tomorrow barring a large decline.... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ACHIEVES MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT... Treasury yields have finally achieved the upside breakout that many of us have been warning about. And it's doing it in pretty decisive fashion. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield surging above its May peak near... READ MORE
The Hindenburg Omen has been touted often lately. I thought I’d share with you information about it that I obtained directly from its creator, James Miekka. Most of the below came from the second edition of my “The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators.” It is only available from... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, October 2, 2018 The Dow Jones rallied for a fourth consecutive day to close in all-time record high territory, eclipsing the previous high set on September 21st. Unfortunately, the rest of the market didn't get the memo as small cap stocks, in particular, were... READ MORE
The Health Care SPDR (XLV) is the best performing sector over the last six months with a 21% gain and the Medical Devices ETF (IHI) is one of the top performing industry group ETFs with a 25% gain. There are dozens of healthcare stocks hitting new highs and showing big... READ MORE
* Small-caps Become More Oversold. * XLE Ends Another Long Correction. * XES Forms Another Higher Low. * Stocks to Watch: VZ, NOV, PSX, VLO, WMT, JPM. ... Small-caps are leading the market lower as the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) and Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) fell over 4% in the last five weeks.... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR TUMBLES TO TWO-MONTH LOW... Retail stocks are having a bad chart day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) falling to the lowest level in two months, and trading below its 50-day average (blue line) by the widest margin since March.... READ MORE
* Dollar Index experiences a false downside breakout * Euro encounters a false upside breakout * Yen completes a bearish multi-year continuation formation * Swiss franc completes a broadening wedge Back in mid-September, I wrote an article where I pointed out that the Dollar was on a knife edge. This view was based on... READ MORE
The Healthcare sector is getting a lot of attention lately. Not surprisingly as it is THE leading sector at the moment. Yesterday when I was working on my most recent RRG blog, XLV made it to the headline. And for good reasons. At the moment it is the only sector... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For October is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, October 1, 2018 The big news was the United States, Canada and Mexico agreeing to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and automobile manufacturers ($DJUSAU, +5.84%) were the clear winners. The group also benefited from a quick settlement between the SEC and Tesla&... READ MORE
During my ChartCon 2018 presentation entitled “The Mindless Investor and the Mindful Investor”, I shared the technical checklist that I use to teach a disciplined process for technical analysis. I received a question after the session on whether I had a “behavioral checklist” to help minimize the impact of behavioral... READ MORE
The Health Care SPDR (XLV) is the strongest sector over the last six months (+19%) and the HealthCare Providers ETF (IHF) is one of the strongest industry groups (+27%). UnitedHealth (UNH) is the top holding in IHF and accounts for 12.5% of the ETF. UNH has a small bullish... READ MORE
* QQQ Leads with New High. * IJR Firms Near Broken Resistance. * 3 Biotechs To Watch. ...QQQ Leads with New High ...The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) advanced to a new high on Monday and continues to show upside leadership. Note that QQQ has been leading pretty much all year now and is... READ MORE
On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) switched to a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. It joins the Dow which already had a PMO BUY signal that was logged on 9/19/18. The SPX and OEX are the laggards right now. I've annotated the PMO BUY... READ MORE