On the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, the Healthcare sector continues strong into the leading quadrant at a steady pace (RS Momentum). Two sectors that are showing a sudden weakness in relative strength, and therefore deserve our attention, are Materials (XLB) and Financials (XLF). Summary * Healthcare (XLV) moving further... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, September 28, 2018 Friday saw very choppy action to close out the 3rd quarter. The good news is that Q3 typically represents the U.S. market's weakest quarter in terms of performance. However, this year saw significant gains over the summer months as the... READ MORE
Okay, I’ll admit, this was just about the worst-kept secret of the year. That said, it doesn’t detract from the good news. Last week, we launched an expanded partnership with David Keller and officially introduced his new blog, The Mindful Investor. As many of you know, David was... READ MORE
This chart was added almost as an afterthought in last Friday's DP Weekly Wrap, but throughout the week I kept thinking that it should elevated to the lead chart this week. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with point and... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, September 28th at 12:29pm ET. The three strongest sector leaders since the start of this year have been consumer cyclicals, technology, and healthcare (in that order). But those numbers don'... READ MORE
Peter Lynch was the portfolio manager for Fidelity’s Magellan Fund for 13 years. His performance results were legendary, and when he retired, he wrote a number of books based on his winning investing principles. To paraphrase and blend a few of those together, Lynch felt that individual investors could... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE HAS BECOME NEW SECTOR LEADER... The three strongest sector leaders since the start of this year have been consumer cyclicals, technology, and healthcare (in that order). But those numbers don't reflect the fact that healthcare has become the strongest market sector over the past three and six... READ MORE
* %Above 200-day EMA. * IJR and MDY Correct as QQQ Breaks Out. * XLC and XLF are Lagging. * XLF and Treasury Yields. * Utes and REITs become Short-term Oversold. * Big Biotechs are Leading Again. * JAZZ Hits Reversal Area. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. ...The stock market as a whole remains... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, September 27, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.03%) rebounded solidly on Thursday after trending lower most of September. The group appeared to benefit from the failure of the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) to break out. 3.11% is yield resistance on the TNX from the May... READ MORE
It is time to update the blog post, 'Crude Oil Runs with the Bulls', of November 11, 2017 (click here). Our Crude Oil ($WTIC) odyssey began in December of 2015 with a study of the Distributional Top touching $112. A Distribution Point and Figure (PnF) count produced an... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, September 26, 2018 The FOMC raised its fed funds rate a quarter point at 2pm EST yesterday as expected, but as usual, it's not what the Fed does, it's what it says. Perhaps the most significant part of the Fed's... READ MORE
* QQQ Holds Up as Small-caps Fall. * Finance Sector Fails to Hold Breakout. * Defining the Upswing in XLF. * Regional Banks and Brokers Break. * Home Construction Breaks Triangle Line. ...QQQ Holds Up as Small-caps Fall ...Stocks were hit with selling pressure late Wednesday and this pushed some key groups modestly lower. The... READ MORE
On the daily Relative Rotation Graph above, the new XLC sector is positioned inside the improving quadrant. XLC moved into the improving from lagging 5 trading days ago and is now heading higher on both scales at a positive RRG-Heading. Measured on the JdK RS-Ratio scale (horizontal axis), XLC is... READ MORE
Advances minus declines readings over the past few days are suggesting a short-term selling exhaustion. And, what's up with Gold? It's been poised to breakout for some time and we're still waiting. There were no changes to the Scoreboards this past week, but, there... READ MORE
* The connection between lumber and housing starts * What the homebuilding ETF’s are saying Nonfarm payrolls are an economic series that is widely followed by the investment community. However, it’s a coincident indicator, meaning it tells you what is going on now, not what might happen in the future.... READ MORE
I spent a great deal of time working on an asset commitment model using the Chande Trend Meter (CTM) and believe I have something worth sharing. Tushar defines ranges for CTM based on the degree of trendiness and I have assigned Asset Commitment percentages to those pre-defined ranges. Table A... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS AT A CRUCIAL CHART POINT ... Treasury bond yields are going through an important test of overhead resistance. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) challenging its May 2018 intra high near 3.11%. After pulling back from its May high, the TNX entered a sideways... READ MORE
Alphabet (GOOGL) fell around 10% from a recent high and this decline looks like a pretty normal correction within a bigger uptrend. Note that GOOGL is the biggest component (23.15%) in the new Communication Services SPDR (XLC). Facebook (FB) is the second largest weighting (17.69%) and Disney (DIS)... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, September 25, 2018 Almost. That's the word that came to mind while watching energy stocks into the close on Tuesday. Yes, the group is in the midst of a significant short-term rally, but when given the opportunity to clear multi-month price resistance, they came... READ MORE
* Short-term Divided, but Long-term Bullish * Small-caps Still Struggling * SPY Leads as QQQ Breaks Wedge * Tech-Related ETFs Hold Strong (sans SOXX) * Chart Setups: ANET, QLYS, NFLX, LMT, RTN More Uptrends than Downtrends Large-caps continue to lead as SPY hit a new high last week and QQQ edged higher the last two... READ MORE
When I look at the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, it is near impossible to be bearish in the longer term. When we see participation in all of the sectors that results in BUY signals across the board, the market is not generally vulnerable to a correction. Price shocks happen, but typically... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, September 24, 2018 Energy (XLE, +1.46%) had a very strong day on Monday, helping to offset what was otherwise a rather poor day for U.S. equities. Technology (XLK, +0.50%) was aided by its four key components - computer hardware ($DJUSCR, +1.17%), internet... READ MORE
INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... This past weekend's meeting between OPEC and Russia ended with no agreement to boost output to counter rising oil price. As a result, oil and other energy prices are rising sharply today. Chart 1 shows the Invesco DB Energy Fund (DBE)... READ MORE
Regeneron (REGN), a large-cap biotech stock, is part of the Health Care SPDR (XLV) and a top ten holding in the Biotech iShares (IBB), Both ETFs hit 52-week highs recently and show upside leadership. The stock is lagging in the 52-week high category, but the long-term trend is up and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, September 21, 2018 Bifurcation was once again apparent on Wall Street to close out last week. The Dow Jones was able to finish higher and extend its trek into record high territory, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000,... READ MORE
MATERIALS AND FINANCIALS LEAD, TECHS AND UTES LAG: The Dow and S&P 500 hit new records this past week, while the Nasdaq lost some ground. A rebound in chemicals and copper stocks made materials the weekly leader. Financials benefited from a jump in bond yields. That also explains... READ MORE
The market (represented by SPY) has nearly reached the top of a rising wedge formation, and the VIX has reached the top Bollinger Band on our reverse scale display. There is no guarantee, but there is a pretty good chance that a short-term top is very near. There is also... READ MORE
UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS THREE-YEAR HIGH... The price of crude oil has reached a critical chart juncture. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) in the process of testing its early July peak. A close through that barrier would put the USO at the highest level in... READ MORE
* Where's the Selling Pressure? (RSP). * Dow Theory Bull Market Confirmation * New Leadership Emerges (XLV, XLI, XLF). * QQQ Gets its Flow Back. * IJR Flags and IWM Tests Breakout. * Finance Sector Joins the Fray. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Where's the Selling Pressure? There are... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, September 20, 2018 Dow Jones, welcome to the party! It's been eight months since the Dow Jones could say it closed in record all-time high territory, but that's what happened at yesterday's close. The Dow Jones joined the S&... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph for Canadian sectors is showing a very distinct move for the Healthcare sector. It is inside the leading quadrant and powering further into it at a strong RRG-Heading at a very long tail. All ingredients for more strength ahead and worth a closer look on a... READ MORE
Today I received two bullish email alerts on Natural Gas (UNG). First, the Short-Term Trend Model had triggered a BUY signal. This means the 5-EMA just crossed above the 20-EMA. Second, there was a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal that registered today as well. I hadn't... READ MORE
THE DOW IS THE LAST TO CLEAR ITS JANUARY HIGH... Another day of rising stock prices has pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 to new records. In the case of the SPX (Chart 1), today's new high is enough to push it back above its... READ MORE
It is with great pleasure that I welcome you to my new blog on StockCharts.com entitled The Mindful Investor. I have been a StockCharts.com user for years but have become even more impressed as I’ve gotten to know the great people behind this website. I’m honored... READ MORE
While browsing through some pre-populated RRGs on the site I stumbled upon the chart holding Canadian sectors. What immediately triggered me was the sharp move of the Healthcare sector into the leading quadrant at almost 45 degrees which means that the sector is moving higher on both axes which is... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, September 19, 2018 The biggest news stories technically-speaking yesterday were the breakout in financials (XLF, +1.70%) and the rising 10 year treasury yield ($TNX), which closed at 3.08% and is just 3 basis points from testing a 7 year high. But September 19, 2018... READ MORE
* Small-cap Materials Take the Lead. * An Abandoned Hammer in SOXX. * FireEye, the Big Base and Volume. * Arista Hits Support and Oversold Zone. ... Small-cap Materials Take the Lead ... There are nine small-caps sectors and the SmallCap Materials ETF (PSCM) is taking the lead. First, it is the only one of the... READ MORE
Big news today was a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal on the Dow. I've noticed the bifurcation of the markets. Today saw a positive close for the Dow, OEX and SPX, but the NDX, $MID and $SML all closed lower. In the case of mid- and... READ MORE
* Long-term dollar technical position * Short-term picture bearish outcome * Short-term picture bullish outcome * Euro * Yen * Swiss franc Long-term dollar technical position I have been primary trend bullish on the dollar for several months. That opinion still stands because the Dollar Index is well above its 12-month MA and its long-term KST... READ MORE
RISING BOND YIELDS HELP FINANCIALS, BUT HURT UTILITIES... This morning's message suggested that this week's upside breakout in bond yields was helping financial stocks which were the day's strongest sector. The green bars on top of Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield surging... READ MORE