Today and yesterday saw four new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The NDX has now joined in on short-term weakness in price trend and condition. Our short-term market indicators are starting to get oversold, but they continue in their downward trend. I came into this week expecting the SPX... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, June 25, 2018 We ended a bearish historical period yesterday with.....well.....bearishness. It was an ugly start to the day on more trade threats and, with an hour left in the session, the Dow Jones was down nearly 600 points. Buyers did emerge in that... READ MORE
* Measuring Participation during a Big Move. * The State of the Market * QQQ Nears First Support Test * IJR Corrects after Big Move * XLV Stocks Versus XLF Stocks * StockCharts TV and On Trend. ... Measuring Participation during a Big Move ... AD Percent is the first breadth indicator I check after a big up... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND TECHS LEAD MARKET LOWER ... Tech stocks and the Nasdaq are leading the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) falling more than 2% today and bearing down on its 50-day average. The Nasdaq is the weakest of the major market indexes. Falling technology... READ MORE
I’m going to continue discussing the ranking and selection of issues for trading. I cannot possibly go into great deal on each of the ranking measures I have used over the years, but future articles will discuss some of the more important ones. Mandatory Measures Once you have your... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 22, 2018 Bifurcated market action once again permeated Wall Street, but with much different results this time. Instead of the Dow Jones lagging badly and finishing in negative territory, this large cap index broke its eight session losing streak and gained 119 points (+0.49%... READ MORE
Internet retailers have not been required to charge sales tax for many online transactions. This has created a major advantage over the brick-and-mortar retailers. A recent court ruling could require internet retailers to include state sales tax on all purchases. Will this breathe new life into the traditional retailing stocks... READ MORE
The market has been turned back from the horizontal resistance drawn across the March top, but it has managed to stay above the support drawn across the May tops. However, there is still the mechanism of the bearish rising wedge pattern, which is reinforced by an OBV negative divergence, and... READ MORE
Earlier this week, I joined Tom Bowley and Erin Swenlin on MarketWatchers LIVE for something a bit different. Instead of sharing the usual tips and tricks as part of the "Everything StockCharts" segment, I had a chance to join the show as a featured guest. In addition to... READ MORE
THE DOW IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT ... The Dow Industrials have been the weakest part of the U.S. stock market over the last month. That's been due primarily to its heavier exposure to stocks with more vulnerability to any Chinese trade tariffs like Boeing and Caterpillar. Those... READ MORE
* A Binary Approach to Indicators. * Wobbly S&P Holds Breakout Zone. * A Small Pullback in the E-Mini. * The Dow? Fughedaboutit! * QQQ and IJR Hit Fresh New Highs. * Retail and Amazon Power XLY. * XLV Holds Breakout. * XLK Starts to Stall. * XLF Tests a Big Support Zone. * Oil Holds Support Near... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 21, 2018 The Dow Jones closed lower for the 8th consecutive trading session, this time falling 196 points. It's been a steady decline, spurred by fears of a trade war with China and a rising U.S. Dollar Index ($USD). Trade tensions tend... READ MORE
We added two more SELL signals to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Both the SPX and OEX triggered Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals. Apparently someone forgot to tell the NDX that it was time to relinquish BUY signals. However, maybe its hearing the whispers given it tumbled a bit farther today... READ MORE
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Yesterday the Dow lost its PMO BUY signal and today it's lost its Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal. Looking at the NDX Scoreboard sitting next to the Dow Scoreboard, a bifurcated market between NDX and Dow. Both the NDX and Russell 2000 continue to set new all-time highs... READ MORE
DOLLAR HAS BIG IMPACT ON GLOBAL MONEY FLOWS ... The direction of the U.S dollar has a big impact on how U.S. stocks perform relative to foreign stocks. As a rule, a stronger dollar favors U.S. stocks, while a weak dollar favors foreign stocks. Chart 1 shows how... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, June 19, 2018 Treasuries (TLT, +0.58%), utilities (XLU, +0.99%), consumer staples (XLP, +0.53%) and healthcare (XLV, +0.26%) highlighted the strength on Tuesday. Wall Street suffered painful losses at the opening bell for a second straight day, but also rallied off those early... READ MORE
Stocks making new 52-week highs are clearly in uptrends and leading. Even though Paypal is just shy of a 52-week high, the bigger uptrend and wedge point to new highs in the near future. First and foremost, Paypal is in a long-term uptrend because the 50-day EMA is above the... READ MORE
* Remember the Failed Flag in SPY? * XLI Fails and Breaks Support. * KRE Holding Up Well. * USB Forges Island Reversal. * Biotech ETFs Breakout. * 4 Healthcare Stocks to Watch. * On Trend on Youtube. ... Remember the Failed Flag in SPY? ... Not too long ago, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged and... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards nearly made it to "all green" as the NDX was the first to manage a PMO crossover on the weekly chart and the others seemed sure to follow until this recent pullback. To make matters worse, the Dow which had just managed a PMO BUY... READ MORE
* New bull market high for US equity relative action * International markets are breaking down * Commodities lose some upside momentum US equities have been hit hard so far this week, but that’s nothing compared to China, Emerging Markets, Europe and other markets around the globe. As a result, we are... READ MORE
Since mid-May the renewable energy stocks have tumbled. This may have come as an unexpected surprise to many. Let’s do a mini-blog case study of the Dow Jones Renewable Energy Equipment Index ($DWCREE) to determine if there was advance warning of trouble brewing. As Wyckoffians we are really in... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, June 18, 2018 Trade war fears are picking up again this morning and it's rattling equities worldwide. It created a bit of a stir on Monday morning as futures were weak, signaling a rough start for U.S. equities. That's exactly what... READ MORE
Note 1: This article was posted earlier as part of the ChartWatchers newsletter last weekend. One paragraph and an up-to-date daily version of the Relative Rotation Graph for asset classes has been added to the bottom of this article. Note 2: A pre-populated universe for Asset Allocation has been added... READ MORE
* Correction Time? * XLI and XLF Resume their Lagging Ways. * Charting the Big Five Sectors. * Watch the Risk-Off Assets. * On Trend and Stocks to Watch. ... The Single Biggest Influence on Individual Stocks There are several influences on the price of an individual stock, but one influence rises far above the others.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 15, 2018 We finished Friday's action with lower major indices, primarily the result of a very weak energy sector (XLE, -2.15%). Unfortunately, that masked one of the best absolute and relative performance days in consumer staples (XLP, +1.28%) since the January... READ MORE
Ross Stores was hit hard with a high volume gap down in late May, but immediately firmed and recovered. The stock broke out of a long triangle in early June and then stalled with a small flag last week. Basically, we have two bullish continuation patterns at work. The long-term... READ MORE
On Friday, the weekly charts went "final". With that finalization, the NDX which had been carrying a positive Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover throughout the week, finally posted the IT PMO BUY signal on its DP Scoreboard. Additionally, sentiment charts were very interesting this week. The National Association... READ MORE
It seems simple enough. Buy stocks/ETFs that are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500. Well, that's part of it for sure. But it really goes a lot deeper than that. StockCharts.com provides you a myriad of ways to evaluate relative strength. I tend to use... READ MORE
The Industrials SPDR (XLI) has struggled in 2018 and is pretty much unchanged year-to-date. Despite flat performance this year, a pair of bullish continuation patterns are taking shape. Let's look at the key levels to watch going forward. Long-term, the trend is still up because the PPO(50,... READ MORE
The bearish rising wedge formation we had been watching resolved upward last week, though not by a decisive margin. This week price reached, then retreated from horizontal resistance, forming a top which created a new rising wedge formation. In spite of the modest pullback early Friday, price was virtually unchanged... READ MORE
Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, June 14th at 11:39am EST. The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a... READ MORE
I have found over many years of trading that it is so much more difficult to make money shorting stocks than going long. With the exception of the Dot.com bubble between 2000-2002 and the bear market of 2008-2009 during the Great Recession we've been in a bull... READ MORE
As Wyckoffians we often generate a hypothesis regarding the forces that propel stocks and industry groups higher (or lower). Homebuilders enjoyed a major uptrend in 2016-17. In this case study from 2016; interest rates were near historically low levels, thus we could conclude that home purchases would be stimulated. And... READ MORE
I’ve seen this play out time and time again at seminars, conferences, lectures, and courses. Remarkably, the conversation always begins with the exact same seemingly harmless five-word question: “But what if you just…” Those five words prompt me to step up on the soapbox and launch into the “tinkering... READ MORE
The Pullback Rally Analysis is not a ranking measure but a technique for determining the relative strength of issues by looking at the most recent rally from a previous pullback. Measure the amount of the pullback in percent, then measure the current rally up to the current date in percent.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 14, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.24%) led a bifurcated market on Thursday, but the real story of June has been consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.04%). The XLY has not only posted gains each of the 10 trading days in June thus far, but it'... READ MORE
* S&P 500 Digest Short-term Gains. * QQQ Leads with New High Expansion. * IJR Stalls above Breakout Zone. * Three Big Leaders and Two Laggards. * XLF Turns Down from Resistance. * XLI Tests Flag Breakout. * XLV Extends on Breakout. * Bonds Get a Bounce. * USO Slowly Bounces off Key Retracement. * The Noose Tightens... READ MORE
ECB WON'T RAISE RATES FOR ANOTHER YEAR ... The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a more hawkish tilt. That had the immediate effect of boosting Treasury bond yields... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, June 13, 2018 Another Fed day is in the rear view mirror and now we know the following. The Fed expects to raise interest rates two more times in 2018, bringing the total number of hikes to 4, as opposed to the 3 they discussed in... READ MORE