The weekly PMO BUY signal was missed by only .02 points last week, but this week it managed to log it. The Dow now remains as the only Scoreboard with a "red arrow" or SELL signal. You'll see on the weekly chart that it is nearing... READ MORE
Last week I thought we had a good setup for a short-term market top and correction, but news of possible progress toward a resolution of trade issues with the EU spurred the market (SPY) higher to challenge all-time highs. Funny thing, though, there was no follow through on Thursday, and... READ MORE
One year ago, we analyzed the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) in a Wyckoff Power Charting blog post. An evaluation of the vertical bar chart and the Point and Figure objectives pointed to higher prices (click here to read the ‘Hustling Russell’). Please review this prior post before proceeding.... READ MORE
* Weekly Performance Review. * Large-caps Show Leadership in July. * New Highs Expand in S&P 500. * Nasdaq 100 Still the Strongest. * Internal Improvements in Industrials and Finance. * XLF and XLI Challenge Spring Highs. * TLT and IEF Fail at Resistance. * This Week in Art's Charts. * Notes from the Art&... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, July 26, 2018 There was clear market bifurcation on Thursday as The Travelers Cos (TRV) and Walt Disney Co (DIS) both gained more than 2% to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a 113 point gain. Five other Dow components gained more than 1%, while... READ MORE
Dominating the news today is Facebook and its crash to earth in one day, finishing the day down almost 20%. This has been a strong stock in a strong sector, but a poor earnings report took down Facebook, and also took down the NDX about 1.45% as investors were... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND ... The Dow Transports continue to gain altitude. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports trading at the highest level in a month and nearing a challenge of its June high. Yesterday's message showed the TRAN being driven higher by United Parcel Service (UPS)... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 25, 2018 All of our major indices finished higher on Wednesday, as did all sectors. Relative strength was found in several areas including industrials (XLI, +1.52%), healthcare (XLV, +1.28%) and technology (XLK, +1.25%). Waste & disposal services ($DJUSPC, +5.04%) surged on... READ MORE
* Breaking Down the Materials Sector. * Materials SPDR Battles Wedge Breakout. * Small-cap Materials Sector Leads XLB. * Establishing an Analytical Bias First. * Steel ETF Surges off Support. * Three International Mining/Steel Stocks. * Three US-Based Steel Stocks. ... Today we are going to dive into the materials sector. I will start by comparing the... READ MORE
New trade deals were announced regarding US-EU tariffs and that seems to have given the market an adrenaline shot. However, on the flip side, Facebook's earnings report miss is wreaking havoc on after hours trading for the technology sector. It'll be interesting to see whether this... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS REGAIN 50-DAY AVERAGE... The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been trying to gain altitude after successfully bouncing off its 200-day moving average over the past month. But it's been a choppy advance. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports regaining its 50-day average today after being pulled... READ MORE
* Tuesday was a Key Reversal Day * Breadth fails to confirm Tuesday’s high * Primary uptrend is intact, but will it be threatened? Tuesday was a Key Reversal Day This week the NASDAQ Composite registered a new all-time-high, but the quality of that rally leaves a lot to be desired. That... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, July 24, 2018 Earnings are dominating the headlines and the action on Wall Street. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 had been underperforming its NASDAQ and Russell 2000 counterparts throughout much of the second quarter. As a result, their positive earnings surprises seem to... READ MORE
Danaher is part of a strengthening sector (healthcare) and accounts for around 5.5% of the Medical Devices ETF (IHI), which is one of the strongest industry group ETFs this year. XLV is one of the best performing sectors over the last three months and IHI sports a parade of... READ MORE
This morning while broadcasting the final market update during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, I commented on the bifurcation of the market. Large-Caps in general were enjoying a rally, but mid- and small-caps were running to the downside. After the market close, I received an email alert that the S&... READ MORE
The current Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors is sending a very clear message for two sectors! Money is flowing OUT of Energy stocks (XLE) and INTO Staples (XLP). The opposite rotation for those two sectors is almost jumping off the screen when you open up this RRG. It is... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 23, 2018 Financials (XLF, +1.38%), especially banks ($DJUSBK, +1.86%), led Wall Street on Monday as the rising 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) provides hope for increasing profits in the quarters ahead for this influential industry group. There's a very strong and... READ MORE
Honeywell (HON) kicked off earnings season for the big industrial stocks last week and surged on high volume. The stock is already in a long-term uptrend and the correction in the first half of 2018 appears to be ending. The stock is in a long-term uptrend because it hit a... READ MORE
July is a busy month. Preparations are taking place for the upcoming ChartCon. And Roman Bogomazov and I are launching our new StockCharts TV program ‘Power Charting’. Power Charting will be broadcast weekly on Friday at 3pm EDT with repeats thereafter. Our emphasis will be on Wyckoff Method basics using... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE AS BOND PRICES DROP... The upturn in Treasury yields that started on Friday is gaining more momentum today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to the highest level in more than a month. It's also climbed... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, July 20, 2018 Software ($DJUSSW, +0.86%) led once again on Friday, thanks in large part to another impressive quarterly earnings report from technology (XLK, +0.03%) giant Microsoft Corp (MSFT). It was a fairly narrow technology advance as software and internet ($DJUSNS, +0.25%) were... READ MORE
* Long-term Trend for Oil is Clearly Up. * RSI Dips into "Oversold" Zone. * Confirming with Nearby Futures. * Finding Futures Symbols. * Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Lags Oil. * XES Tests Bullish Resolve. ...Long-term Trend for Oil is Up ...Oil pulled back over the last few weeks with a... READ MORE
I may seem to be wandering around when it comes to this series on model building, but I think that keeps the interest a little higher; maybe not. Rules and guidelines are a critical element to a good trend following model; in fact, any type of model. Once you have... READ MORE
My expectation for week end was two new weekly PMO BUY signals. Instead we got only one. The SPX missed its weekly PMO BUY signal by hair or technically, by two one-hundredths of a point. The OEX managed to squeak its out and the Dow is finally seeing a possible... READ MORE
Editors Note:This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, July 19th at 1:46pm ET. The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) forming a major bottoming pattern that started six years ago (2012). Its monthly MACD lines (bottom... READ MORE
The Financials SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) weighed on the broader market the first six months of the year, but perked up in July and started to show some upside leadership. The PerfChart below shows the percentage change for the ten sector SPDRs from December 29th to June 29th,... READ MORE
Traders have been waiting patiently for Q2 earnings season to begin and now they need to wait no longer. Already we've heard from some of the largest banks in the world and on Tuesday we heard from EBAY, who came up short and then Thursday from one of... READ MORE
I normally expect options expiration week to be dull, and with this week's range of less than one percent, I was not disappointed. I was also looking for a short-term pullback, but that did not materialize (probably because of options expiration); however, our array of indicators say that... READ MORE
THE MAJOR TREND STILL FAVORS HIGHER BOND YIELDS... Yesterday's message showed the 7-10 Year T-bond iShares (IEF) testing important overhead resistance at its spring highs and 200-day moving average, and the impact bond direction usually has on rate-sensitive sectors like financials, utilities, and REITS. Rising rates usually favor... READ MORE
There’s a legendary tale in automobile circles how in the 1990s the executives at General Motors got their design engineers to focus on what was most important. They wanted to erase all their preconceived notions and assumptions about building cars. They blindfolded all the engineers and lead them into... READ MORE
* Weekly Performance Review. * Elevator Down and Stairs Up. * The Big Four are in Sync. * A Changing of the Guard? * Big Wedges Remain for XLI and XLF. * ITB and XHB Firm at Key Retracements. * What is the Deal with Bonds? * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. ...There is an... READ MORE
BOND ETF IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... Treasury bond prices have been climbing since the middle of May. And they've reached an important chart point. Chart 1 shows the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF) in the process of testing overhead resistance along their early April/late May peaks,... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 18, 2018 We were mostly higher on Wednesday, although gains were slight. One exception was the NASDAQ, which finished less than one point lower. Otherwise, we saw green. Despite mostly higher prices, leadership really came from just two sectors - financials (XLF, +1.60%) and... READ MORE
While working on my previous article, one stock, in particular, drew my attention. I only casually addressed it in that article as I wanted to do a more extensive review separately. We are talking about Walt Disney (DIS). In this post, I will try to build a longer-term picture with... READ MORE
* A Breadth Burst for the Finance Sector. * Industrials and Finance Lead July Surge. * Ranking by %Above 200-day EMA. * Finding these Symbols. ... Signals from %Above Indicators ... The percentage of stocks above the 20-day EMA is a short-term breadth indicator that measures participation. StockCharts calculates and publishes this indicator for the major... READ MORE
The quick drop of short-term indicators is a case in point on how "oscillators must oscillate" and that overbought conditions in a strong bull market can unwind through consolidation and are therefore, not necessarily a precursor to doom and gloom. I've been writing about these indicators... READ MORE
* Long-term trends rolling over to the downside * A rising dollar does not help gold * Gold Under-performing stocks is not a good thing….for gold * Gold showing bear market characteristics Long-term trends rolling over to the downside The recent sell off in the price of gold has quite frankly surprised me.... READ MORE
I do not use bullish and bearish divergences with momentum indicators very often because they usually form in the direction of the bigger trend. For example, most bearish divergences form in uptrends and most bullish divergences form in downtrends. I trade in the direction of the bigger trend and prefer... READ MORE
Special Note I will be on a short mini-vacation beginning Friday, July 20th. Therefore, I will not be writing a Trading Places blog article that day. I will be back on Monday, however, with my latest recap and thoughts on the stock market. If you enjoy my blog, please subscribe... READ MORE
* Biotech ETFs Near New Highs * Fab Five Lead QQQ Higher. * SOXX Turns Up within Triangle. * A Mean-Reversion Setup for Analog Devices. * Two Inside Days for Cisco. * A Flag Breakout for ICE. * Perkin Elmer Perks Up. ... IBB and XBI Near New Highs ... The Biotech iShares (IBB) surged over 15% the last... READ MORE