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STOCKS TRADE SIDEWAYS BUT END WEEK SLIGHTLY HIGHER -- FALLING CRUDE OIL MADE ENERGY THE WEAKEST SECTOR -- WHILE FALLING BOND YIELDS MADE UTILITIES THE STRONGEST -- INTERMARKET ANALYSIS SUG...

STOCKS TRADE SIDEWAYS BUT END WEEK SLIGHTLY HIGHER -- FALLING CRUDE OIL MADE ENERGY THE WEAKEST SECTOR -- WHILE FALLING BOND YIELDS MADE UTILITIES THE STRONGEST -- INTERMARKET ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THOSE TWO TRENDS ARE LINKED

UTILITIES WERE WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR WHILE ENERGY WAS THE WEAKEST... Stocks ended the week with small gains while continuing to trade in a sideways consolidation pattern. Technology stocks showed relative strength thanks to a strong semiconductor group. So did consumer cyclicals which were led higher by apparel retailers....   READ MORE 

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DP Weekly Wrap: From Flag to Churn

DP Weekly Wrap: From Flag to Churn

Last week I thought we had a good outlook based upon a bullish flag formation, but this week the market just added more sideways movement. We could still make a case for a flag being in place, but a good flag should slant down off the flagpole as a sign...   READ MORE 

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Two Markets Close To Basket Case Status

Two Markets Close To Basket Case Status

* Commodities looking short-term toppy * Copper close to a bear market signal that it may escape * Oil trend is still positive but vulnerable * Two markets close to a major breakdown In a global stock market of predominantly long-term bullish charts, two country funds stand out as being on the verge of...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - As Divided as Ever

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - As Divided as Ever

* SPX New Highs Continue to Drag. * Triangle Breakout Holds. * Bulls and Bears Fight to Go Nowhere. * Watching the Swing within the Wedge. * IJR Holds above Breakout Zone. * QQQ and XLK Form Tight Consolidations. * XLF Stalls Near April High. * XLI Stays Strong as XLV Hits Make-or-Break Level. * Semis are Leading and...   READ MORE 

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Retail Says We're Going Higher.....Much Higher

Retail Says We're Going Higher.....Much Higher

Market Recap for Thursday, May 24, 2018 The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.  Thanks to all of the veterans, current and past, for their service to our country.  :-) Wall Street traded much lower in the opening 90 minutes, then spent...   READ MORE 

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APPAREL RETAILERS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- TODAY'S RETAIL LEADERS ARE GAP, FOOT LOCKER, AND KOHLS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SO DO THE TRANSPOR...

APPAREL RETAILERS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- TODAY'S RETAIL LEADERS ARE GAP, FOOT LOCKER, AND KOHLS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SO DO THE TRANSPORTS -- MICRON TECHNOLOGY LEADS CHIP STOCKS HIGHER

APPAREL RETAILERS ARE GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE... My message on Wednesday of last week showed the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) hitting a four-month high and becoming a new market leader. Yesterday's message showed the XRT rebounding enough to stay above its recent breakout point. Retailers are continuing...   READ MORE 

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Software, Internet Stocks Bounce Off 20 Day EMAs, Lead Technology Rally

Software, Internet Stocks Bounce Off 20 Day EMAs, Lead Technology Rally

Market Recap for Wednesday, May 23, 2018 Technology (XLK, +0.74%) rallied on Wednesday to move back near two month highs and creep closer to its all-time high close.  Both software ($DJUSSW) and internet stocks ($DJUSNS) performed well to lead the rally: The green arrows highlight the rising 20 day...   READ MORE 

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DP Alert: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Bullish - Worst Could Be Over

DP Alert: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Bullish - Worst Could Be Over

It looks like I may actually have a week without a signal change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Currently all trends are bullish, although momentum isn't positive in the intermediate term. The IT PMO signals are derived from the weekly PMO. The weekly PMOs are mostly flat and directionless...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES END HIGHER AFTER HOLDING CHART SUPPORT -- DOW LEADERS ARE BOEING, INTEL, AND MICROSOFT -- RETAILERS LEAD S&P 500 HIGHER -- NASDAQ 100 IS DAY'S STRONGEST INDEX -- NETFLIX HITS...

STOCK INDEXES END HIGHER AFTER HOLDING CHART SUPPORT -- DOW LEADERS ARE BOEING, INTEL, AND MICROSOFT -- RETAILERS LEAD S&P 500 HIGHER -- NASDAQ 100 IS DAY'S STRONGEST INDEX -- NETFLIX HITS NEW RECORD

DOW BOUNCES OFF SHORT-TERM CHART SUPPORT... An early morning pullback for the Dow found support along the lows of last week before ending the day higher. That was the same story for the other major stock indexes. The black line in Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials staying above that...   READ MORE 

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Here's A Seasonal Winner For June And July

Here's A Seasonal Winner For June And July

Market Recap for Tuesday, May 22, 2018 After early morning strength, Wall Street sellers returned and took their toll on many areas of the market, but most notably energy (XLE, -1.33%) and industrials (XLI, -1.23%).  Heavy construction ($DJUSHV) was a key casualty in the industrials after trying to...   READ MORE 

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Bull Flags in JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley

Bull Flags in JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley

I highlighted a number of bull flags in Tuesday's show (On Trend), and there were some breakouts. These breakouts, however, were not very convincing because stocks closed weak and gave back their early gains. Today I will highlight the flags in JP Morgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS)...   READ MORE 

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Preparing for that Doh! Moment - The Triangle versus another Wedge

Preparing for that Doh! Moment - The Triangle versus another Wedge

* The Last Thing You Expect .... * Another Ominous Wedge Takes Shape. * $SPX-$SML Correlation is High. * QQQ Shows Short-term Weakness. * Regional Banks Outperform Big Banks. * Highlights from On Trend. The Last Thing You Expect .... ... is probably what will happen. Even though I cannot quantify this expression, we have all experienced such...   READ MORE 

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Aerospace, Transports Lead Surge In Industrials

Aerospace, Transports Lead Surge In Industrials

Market Recap for Monday, May 21, 2018 Until recently, the industrials (XLI, +1.51%) had been lagging its aggressive sector counterparts rather badly.  That has definitely changed in May and we now have all key sectors with buy signals.  Relative weakness remains in the defensive healthcare (XLV, +0.10%), consumer...   READ MORE 

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Hasbro Hits Stiff Resistance Zone

Hasbro Hits Stiff Resistance Zone

I do not often highlight stocks with bearish setups during a bull market, but Hasbro shows some serious weakness over the past year and looks poised to peak again. First and foremost, the chart shows Hasbro (HAS) hitting a 52-week low in early April and this means the long-term trend...   READ MORE 

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BOEING AND CATERPILLAR LEAD INDUSTRIAL SPDR HIGHER -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE BREAKING OUT TO THE UPSIDE -- SO ARE THE TRANSPORTS -- THAT SIGNALS A DOW THEORY BUY SIGNAL IN THE MAKING

BOEING AND CATERPILLAR LEAD INDUSTRIAL SPDR HIGHER -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE BREAKING OUT TO THE UPSIDE -- SO ARE THE TRANSPORTS -- THAT SIGNALS A DOW THEORY BUY SIGNAL IN THE MAKING

INDUSTRIAL SPDR IS BREAKING OUT ... Good news on the tariff dispute with China is giving a big lift to stocks today. While all sectors are gaining ground, the day's leader is the industrial sector. Chart 1 shows the Industrial SPDR (XLI) rising pretty decisively above a falling four-month...   READ MORE 

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Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 10

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 10

I’m going to change the focus for a while; for my own sanity and probably for yours.  We have talked about a weight of the evidence approach and some of the indicators used in that approach.  This approach tells us when to invest in the market and how much;...   READ MORE 

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Monday Trade Setup - Garmin Fills Gap, Looks To Head Higher

Monday Trade Setup - Garmin Fills Gap, Looks To Head Higher

Market Recap for Friday, May 18, 2018 Last week ended with plenty of bifurcation.  Strength was once again seen across the small cap universe as the S&P 600 SmallCap Index and Russell 2000 both finished the week at all-time high closing levels.  The larger cap Dow Jones and...   READ MORE 

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Two Way Markets

Two Way Markets

Since 2016 the broad stock market has been in a robust uptrend. Corporations have enjoyed an environment of stable and low interest rates with moderate rates of inflation. Such a backdrop of business conditions allows companies to efficiently manage their costs and grow earnings. Investors are willing to pay higher...   READ MORE 

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When the Market is Choppy Search for the Best of the Best

When the Market is Choppy Search for the Best of the Best

The S&P hit its all time high of 2872 on January 26, less than 4 months. ago. Two weeks later, on February 9, it touched 2532, having fallen almost 12% before recovering some. But since then the bulls have struggled to make progress with the S&P...   READ MORE 

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Rising Mortgage Rates Are Weighing On Homebuilders

Rising Mortgage Rates Are Weighing On Homebuilders

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Saturday, May 18th at 9:17am EST. The first page of today's Wall Street Journal carries the headline: "Era of Ultracheap Mortgages Ends as Rates Hit 7-Year High". The article goes...   READ MORE 

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Rising Treasury Yields And Dollar Completely Change Investment Themes

Rising Treasury Yields And Dollar Completely Change Investment Themes

There's a raging bull market going on right now, but you might not realize it if you're stuck in the S&P 500.  Take a look at the chart below of the large cap benchmark S&P 500 and its small cap counterpart, the...   READ MORE 

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MORTGAGE RATES HIT A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH ALONG WITH TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- RISING MORTGAGE RATES MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SELLING OF HOMEBUILDING STOCKS -- A RECORD HIGH IN THE PRICE OF LUMB...

MORTGAGE RATES HIT A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH ALONG WITH TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- RISING MORTGAGE RATES MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SELLING OF HOMEBUILDING STOCKS -- A RECORD HIGH IN THE PRICE OF LUMBER ALSO RAISES THE COSTS OF BUILDING A NEW HOUSE

RISING MORTGAGE RATES ARE WEIGHING ON HOMEBUILDERS ... The first page of today's Wall Street Journal carries the headline: "Era of Ultracheap Mortgages Ends as Rates Hit 7-Year HIgh". The article goes on to point out that rising mortgage rates might make it harder for prospective home...   READ MORE 

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Small-caps Lead, but Mid-caps and Large-caps Lack Leadership

Small-caps Lead, but Mid-caps and Large-caps Lack Leadership

Stocks recording new 52-week highs are the leaders and a key component to broad market strength. Small-caps are doing their part with plenty of new highs, but large-caps and mid-caps are lagging in this category. The S&P Small-Cap 600 moved to a new 52-week high this week and...   READ MORE 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bullish Flag Forming

DP Weekly Wrap: Bullish Flag Forming

Back in the day, options expiration days were characterized by high volatility and exceptionally high volume; however, in recent years the market stays relatively calm, and the high volume only appears at the end of each quarter. These expectations were not disappointed in today's trading. In fact, the...   READ MORE 

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Steady As She Goes: Several Indicators Say The Market Is Headed Higher

Steady As She Goes: Several Indicators Say The Market Is Headed Higher

Volume is offering a mixed picture Last week I pointed out that several short-term indicators, including breadth and net new high indicators, were still pointing north. One area that was not showing any strength of note was volume, in the form of the PVO for the NYSE. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Leading the Way - Indicators for $SML Bullish

Small-Caps Leading the Way - Indicators for $SML Bullish

Small-cap stocks and indexes are quite healthy, far more than the large-cap indexes which are lagging behind. During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show and in my Wednesday "DP Alert" blog article, I discussed the SPX's short-term bearish indicators contrasted with the now bullish short-term indicators...   READ MORE 

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Teach Your Young Investors! Here's How And Why You'll Both Benefit

Teach Your Young Investors! Here's How And Why You'll Both Benefit

This is personal. I’ve spent a lifetime learning how to make consistent profits in the investing arena. Yes, the stock markets have been good to me. They’ve allowed me to stay healthy by learning to manage my stress and they’ve also allowed me to enjoy an extremely...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - New Sector and Industry Group Leaders

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - New Sector and Industry Group Leaders

* The Mother of all Double Bottoms. * The Shifting Relationship between Stocks and Bonds. * S&P SmallCap iShares Hit New High. * Small-caps Lead Breadth Indicators. * S&P 500 Pauses Near Breakout Zone. * Materials and Industrials Show Upside Leadership. * XLI and XLB Bid to End 2018 Corrections. * XLF Forms High...   READ MORE 

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Energy Has All Guns Blazing, Leads Bifurcated Market

Energy Has All Guns Blazing, Leads Bifurcated Market

Market Recap for Thursday, May 17, 2018 There's a new sheriff on Wall Street and it's the energy ETF (XLE, +1.51%).  Its SCTR has soared to 97.1 with the second best SCTR (XLK - technology ETF) at 86.8.  The distance between the two...   READ MORE 

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Beat the Energy sector by avoiding XOM & CVX

Beat the Energy sector by avoiding XOM & CVX

In the previous RRG blog, I introduced the availability of pre-populated groups holding individual equities for each of the ten S&P sectors. This addition makes it much easier for users of the Relative Rotation Graph tool on Stockcharts.com to drill down to the individual equity level from...   READ MORE 

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DP Bulletin #3: Trend Models on BUY Signals in All Timeframes as Dow Triggers ITTM BUY

DP Bulletin #3: Trend Models on BUY Signals in All Timeframes as Dow Triggers ITTM BUY

The Dow was the laggard but it finally managed an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. This moves all four Scoreboards' Trend Models to BUY signals in the short-, intermediate- and long-terms. The last time all three timeframes were all on Trend...   READ MORE 

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Correlation Suggests This Financial Group Is About To Explode Higher, Get In Early

Correlation Suggests This Financial Group Is About To Explode Higher, Get In Early

Market Recap for Wednesday, May 16, 2018 We saw another advance on Wall Street on Wednesday as key indices continue to clear important hurdles.  Perhaps the most significant yesterday was the Russell 2000, which ended its bullish continuation pattern as expected - with a bullish breakout to the upside: It&...   READ MORE 

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Metals, Mining and Steel Lead in May - Plus Copper, COPX and 4 Stocks

Metals, Mining and Steel Lead in May - Plus Copper, COPX and 4 Stocks

* Materials Sector Leads in May. * Metals & Mining SPDR Breaks Out of Consolidation. * Steel Dynamics, Allegheny and Reliant Lead Group. * The Long Correction in Copper. * Copper Miners ETF Challenges Resistance. * Continuous Commodity Contracts are Mixed. * Stocks to Watch: ADSK, CA, HPE, HCA. The EW Technology ETF, EW Industrials ETF and...   READ MORE 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Weakness Should Clear Soon - $90/Barrel Not Out of the Questiorm

DP Alert: Short-Term Weakness Should Clear Soon - $90/Barrel Not Out of the Questiorm

There still may be some growing pains to endure, but seeing Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals beginning to populate the DP Scoreboards for the first time since March. The Dow should be joining the ITTM BUY signal party very soon. I was surprised it didn't trigger today, but...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR JUMPS TO A FOUR-MONTH HIGH AND HAS BECOME A NEW MARKET LEADER -- RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE MACYS, UNDER ARMOUR, AND NIKE -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR WHICH HELPS SMALL C...

RETAIL SPDR JUMPS TO A FOUR-MONTH HIGH AND HAS BECOME A NEW MARKET LEADER -- RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE MACYS, UNDER ARMOUR, AND NIKE -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR WHICH HELPS SMALL CAP STOCKS -- RUSSELL 2000 HITS A NEW RECORD

S&P RETAIL SPDR GOES FROM LAGGARD TO LEADER... A strong April retail report yesterday was credited with helping push bond yields to the highest level in seven years. That's because it showed strong consumer spending which is two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Retail stocks must...   READ MORE 

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These Two Materials Stocks are Looking to Lead

These Two Materials Stocks are Looking to Lead

The Materials SPDR (XLB) is having a good month with a 4+ percent gain so far in May. Within the sector, I am seeing some strength in two big chemical stocks, Air Products (APD) and Eastman Chemical (EMN). Before looking at the charts, note that both are above their rising...   READ MORE 

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The Four Decade-Long Downtrend In Interest Rates Is Over And This Is What It Means

The Four Decade-Long Downtrend In Interest Rates Is Over And This Is What It Means

Reminder If you like my daily Trading Places blog articles and you haven't done so already, please subscribe below.  It's a great feature that StockCharts.com provides for all of the blogs here, and it's FREE and easy.  Simply scroll to the bottom of...   READ MORE 

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Highlights from Tuesday's Show (On Trend)

Highlights from Tuesday's Show (On Trend)

* Ranking Sectors by High-Low Percent. * Sector SPDR Chart Analysis (big wedges). * Oil and Energy-Related ETFs Continue to Work. * 10-yr T-Yield Turns Back Up. * Winners and Losers in Rising Rate Environment. * Stocks: TSLA, DHR, NKE, ROST, SYK, UNH. Today's c ommentary and charts show some highlights from "On...   READ MORE 

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DP Bulletin #2: OEX Adds IT Trend Model BUY Signal

DP Bulletin #2: OEX Adds IT Trend Model BUY Signal

Another Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal arrived on the OEX Scoreboard. The Dow is very close to the same signal. For more information, I refer you to yesterday's article about the SPX IT Trend Model BUY signal. My analysis remains the same as yesterday. The outlook is improving...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO SEVEN-YEAR HIGH -- REGIONAL BANKS GAIN ON HIGHER YIELDS -- WHILE RATE SENSITIVE REITS TUMBLE -- S&P 500 SUFFERS MODEST PULLBACK -- DOLLAR JUMPS TO SIX-MONT...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO SEVEN-YEAR HIGH -- REGIONAL BANKS GAIN ON HIGHER YIELDS -- WHILE RATE SENSITIVE REITS TUMBLE -- S&P 500 SUFFERS MODEST PULLBACK -- DOLLAR JUMPS TO SIX-MONTH HIGH WHICH HURTS GOLD BUT SUPPORTS SMALL CAPS

TEN-YEAR TREASURY REACHES 3.08%... The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points today to 3.08% which pushed it above its late 2013 peak near 3.03%. The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the TNX now trading at the highest level since the summer of 2011. That'...   READ MORE