This afternoon I ran one of my PMO scans (you'll find the link to my most popular scan in the link at the bottom of this article) and found two Travel & Tourism stocks that I found quite interesting. What I look for are Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)... READ MORE
The technology sector (XLK) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY on Thursday, but reversed from BUY to NEUTRAL on Friday. The problem is that recent sideways price movement has squeezed the 20EMA and 50EMA very close together, and price movement above or below the EMAs can cause whipsaw signals. To review,... READ MORE
Anytime we issue a trade alert to members at EarningsBeats it must carry a minimum reward to risk of at least 2 to 1. In fact we rarely consider getting involved in a trade unless the potential reward to risk is at least 3 to 1 or higher. The concept... READ MORE
In the 18 years I’ve been teaching investors to grow their wealth, I believe I can simplify it down to two basic prerequisites for success. Despite all the clatter, prattle and bluster that increasingly emanates from the financial industry, individual investors can multiply their probability of success many times... READ MORE
Yesterday, Thursday 19th of April, it was my turn again to join Tom and Erin in their Market Watchers Live show again. By the way, I will be joining them every third Thursday of the month to talk about RRG and talk about market developments from an RRG point of... READ MORE
* A Narrowing Range for the S&P 500. * Monitoring the Upswing in SPY. * Raff Regression Channel Explained. * QQQ Weathers Semiconductor Weakness. * IJR Challenges Rim Resistance. * Big Wedge and Little Wedge in XLF. * XLY, XLK and XLI Lead the Big Sectors. * SOXX Fails to Hold Breakout. * Notes from the Art&... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, April 19, 2018 The U.S. stock market has been solid throughout April thus far, so seeing a Thursday drop of 0.57% and 0.78% on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, respectively, shouldn't be too alarming. And it wasn't.... READ MORE
As noted in the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, a new IT Trend Model BUY signal was added. Before this BUY signal, there were only two sectors on IT BUY signals and they were in somewhat defensive areas of the market, Utilities and Energy. It is good news to see this BUY... READ MORE
BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT... This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Rising commodity prices have a lot of intermarket implications. For one thing, rising... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, April 18, 2018 Our major indices showed signs of tiring on Wednesday as its seasonal pre-earnings run from April 1st to April 18th concluded. Five sectors managed to finish in positive territory, including the red-hot energy sector (XLE, +1.57%) and industrials (XLI, +1.04%). The... READ MORE
* IJR Moves above Chandelier Exit. * Finance Sector Underperforms. * Regional Bank SPDR Forms Bear Flag. * 10-yr Yield Breaks out of Flag. * Yield Curve Sinks to Multi-year Lows. * Bond Bounce May be Ending. * Commodities are on the Move. * Copper Bounces off Support (plus COPX). * Gold Forms Bullish Cup-with-Handle. The S&P... READ MORE
This week the DP Scoreboards turned short-term bullish. Unfortunately, I suspect this breakout won't hold long if the short-term indicators continue to stretch into very overbought territory. Although the Scoreboards show intermediate-term neutral to bearish, the intermediate-term market indicators suggest we likely have seen the lows for the... READ MORE
Industrial metals surged on Wednesday with 2+ percent gains coming in silver, aluminum, palladium, copper and nickel. The Silver ETF (SLV), in particular, finally broke out of a two-month consolidation. The chart below shows the Silver ETF (SLV) with Bollinger Bands in pink and BandWidth in the indicator window. Overall,... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Monday's message showed the Dow Transports rising above their 50-day average to turn their trend higher. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports on the verge of breaking through overhead resistance formed in late February and mid-March. While rails and truckers (and FedEx) were Monday&... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, April 17, 2018 Futures were solid heading into Tuesday's pre-market action as Netflix reported stellar Q1 results after the closing bell on Monday. Then, on Tuesday morning, home construction ($DJUSHB) received great news as both March housing starts and building permits easily exceeded expectations.... READ MORE
Since Friday, the DecisionPoint Scoreboards have been adding short-term buy signal after short-term buy signal. With today's breakouts from consolidation zones, I believe they are timely. You may be wondering what it would take to start seeing BUY signals in the intermediate term. The IT Trend Model signals... READ MORE
* Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled * Breath indicators are firming up Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled Last week I wrote that many of the short-term indicators were flashing buy signals and that we should expect the US equity market to work its way higher. I... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ... Stocks are having another good chart day. All major stock indexes are trading well above their 50-day averages. The Nasdaq market is in the lead. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gapping over its 50-day line today. The rising red line is a... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, April 16, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.37%) and materials (XLB, +1.34%) led rather odd market behavior on Monday. The good news is that all nine sectors finished higher. The bad news is that our most aggressive sectors struggled on a relative basis. Financials (XLF, +0.... READ MORE
* Small-caps Rise as Large-caps Grind. * Cup-with-handle Evolves in IJR. * Three Leading Small-Cap Sectors. * XRT Holds Breakout. * Providers and Devices Lead Healthcare. * ITA Edges Above Short-term Resistance. * Delta and Micron Correct within Uptrends. Small-caps Rise as Large-caps Grind... After a fairly dismal March, stocks moved higher this month with small-caps leading... READ MORE
Analog Devices (ADI) is a large semiconductor stock and a leader in the internet of things (IoT). The stock is in a long-term uptrend and recently broke short-term resistance to reverse a short-term pullback. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up. The stock hit a 52-week high in January,... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS EXCEED 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Stocks are opening the new week on a positive note. Transportation stocks are having an especially strong day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Transports climbing 2% this morning. More importantly, the $TRAN is trading above its 50-day moving average (blue circle)... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, April 13, 2018 U.S. stocks fell on Friday the 13th, but managed to cut intraday losses in half (or more) during the final 45 minutes of the session. Most of our major indices lost roughly 0.50%, except for the benchmark S&P 500,... READ MORE
Last week I attended the CMT Association’s annual symposium in New York City. One of the industry events that I visit each year. On the one hand to learn from other industry professionals but very much also to catch up with friends and maintain relationships. As I am writing... READ MORE
Fellow Wyckoffian, Dan, emailed a very good question this week. Dan is seeing the energy stocks move up and he observes that being a cyclical industry, these stocks typically move in unison. Dan is observing that some of the stocks are completing Accumulation phases while others are already in uptrends.... READ MORE
* A small correction ahead? * Short-term oscillators are primed for a rally * Bitcoin is breaking out again A small correction ahead? If you want to be bullish, Friday’s technical action was somewhat disappointing. That’s because it represented an engulfing pattern for the DIA, as shown in Chart 1. Chart... READ MORE
JP MORGAN CHASE SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL ON FRIDAY... Friday had to be a very discouraging day for investors in bank stocks. After reporting first quarter earnings that were much higher than expected, bank stocks opened higher before plunging in heavy trading. Chart 1 shows JP Morgan Chase (JPM) suffering a... READ MORE
Market action was a little choppy this week, but SPY managed to eke out a small gain; unfortunately, volume was weak and did not confirm the rally. The PMO bottomed and crossed up through the signal line, giving a PMO BUY signal. But the PMO is running kind of flat,... READ MORE
* Three Strikes and your Out - But Not Yet. * SPY Attempts to Reverse Downswing. * IJR Leading in April. * QQQ Springs to Life. * High-Low Lines Turn Up. * Tech-Related ETFs Break Out in Unison. * XBI, SLX and the Problem with Reversal Patterns. * Bear Market Bounce for Bonds, Utes and REITs. * Gold Stays... READ MORE
Note I write an article here in this blog each and every morning that the stock market is open. It's typically published during pre-market action, between 8:30am-9:00am EST. I've been doing it since September 2015 and I do my best to keep you up-to-date... READ MORE
Another price-based measure I use in my weight of the evidence is called Adaptive Trend. This was modeled after an indicator from the Bloomberg service called Trender. Adaptive Trend identifies price swings based on the daily trading range. It uses Average True Range (ATR), exponential smoothing, and standard deviation as... READ MORE
Another new signal to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, the OEX has logged a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal to join the Dow which triggered its PMO BUY signal yesterday. The NDX PMO has some distance to close before we'll see its signal change. Tomorrow, the SPX... READ MORE
TEN YEAR BOND YIELD MAY BE TURNING BACK UP AGAIN... After hitting a four-year high during January, the 10-Year Treasury Yield saw a modest decline from mid-February until the end of March. Some of that decline in yields was probably based on safe haven buying of Treasuries during the first... READ MORE
* The technical position of small caps in general * Small cap sectors The technical position of small caps in general Small caps, as represented by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), have outperformed the market since late March and have now broken out in their own right. We can see this from... READ MORE
* Introduction and Overview. * How Many Crosses in the Last 25 Years? * Crunching the Numbers. * Putting the Dow Industrials to the Test. * SPY, SPX and Dividends. * Slowing Down the Trigger. * Reduce Risk and Get on the Right Side. * Summarizing the Results. * Consulting, Software and Data. The S&P 500 is... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, April 11, 2018 Well, the S&P 500 tried to clear its 20 day EMA again. And it failed....again. That marks the 5th consecutive day of failed 20 day EMA breakouts. Given that futures are higher this morning, this benchmark index appears headed for... READ MORE
* SPY Challenges Short-term Resistance. * Small-caps Continue to Act Well. * Retail Comes Alive. * Kohls, Nordstrom and Michael Kors. * Cyber Security, Networking and Software Show Leadership. * Copper Miners ETF Breaks Out within Consolidation. SPY Challenges Resistance... The S&P 500 is flirting with the 200-day simple moving average as it consolidates... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL LEADS BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX HIGHER... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Bloomberg Commodity Index rising to the highest level in two months. The index recently bounced off its 200-day moving average (red line) and a rising trendline drawn under its June/December lows. The commodity rally... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, April 10, 2018 It seems like forever, but the energy sector ETF (XLE, +3.31%) finally did it - it closed above 69.00! Can we please say goodbye to the 66-69 trading range? I didn't realize this until yesterday, but the XLE'... READ MORE
The Dow is the first to shed it's previous Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. The SELL signal had been in place since 2/2/18. Found it interesting that the earliest PMO SELL signal on the DP Scoreboards managed to move to a BUY signal before all... READ MORE