Market Recap for Thursday, February 22, 2018 U.S. indices continued to tread water on Thursday, with mixed action among our major indices and sectors. The Dow Jones posted a triple digit gain (165 points), but the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indices both fell fractionally. Volatility ($VIX) subsided... READ MORE
* Bulls, Bears and Fishermen. * Long-term Picture Still Bullish. * Rising SMAs for the S&P 500. * A Short-term Bullish Pattern for SPY. * Small-caps Show some Short-term RS. * Lots of Little Consolidations. * Oil Extends Bounce off Support. * Energy Stocks are Not Impressed. * Gold Miners Not Impressed Either. * Notes from the Art&... READ MORE
I was asked during the MarketWatchers LIVE program today about my thoughts regarding Gold v. Dollar and particularly, why I'm bearish on Gold right now. I'll explain. The chart for Gold is bearish on many counts. First there is the PMO with its "bear kiss&... READ MORE
* Revisiting Two Momentum Systems from 2017. * A Simple Momentum Rotation System. * Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword. * A Trend-Momentum System with a Profit Target. * Successful and Unsuccessful Trades. * In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Performance. * Drawdowns are Unavoidable. * Conclusions and Takeaways. * Consulting, Software and Data. Revisiting Two Momentum Systems I introduced... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, February 21, 2018 Well, the U.S. stock market was humming right along.....until the FOMC minutes were released at 2pm EST. Take a look at this intraday chart on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 and I think you'll fairly quickly... READ MORE
The NDX switched back to a Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signal on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA which triggered the signal (the chart is below the scoreboards for your review). The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Update is to quickly review the day's action,... READ MORE
* General market thoughts * Sectors under pressure * Stronger looking sectors General market thoughts My thoughts on the recent correction is that we have likely seen the low, that more ranging action is likely, probably involving a test of that low, but that eventually US equities will see new bull market highs.... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET ... My last sentence from yesterday's message was that the stock market was unlikely to suffer any serious short-term damage as long as technology stocks kept rising. That's because technology is such a big part of the stock market. And they&... READ MORE
Even though I am currently in the "correction" camp for the broader market, there are clearly pockets of strength in some key groups. The Software iShares (IGV), Cyber Security ETF (HACK), Internet ETF (FDN) and Networking iShares (IGN) are leading the technology rebound and all are close to... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, February 20, 2018 Selling returned to Wall Street as its six day winning streak came to an end. The Dow Jones was easily the biggest loser as Walmart, Inc (WMT) disappointed traders with its latest quarterly earnings report and had its worst trading day in many... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES HAVE A STRONG DAY... Semiconductor stocks are the strongest part of the market today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) trading more than 2% higher today and moving further above its 50-day moving average. The SOXX has also risen above its 20-day moving average (green line)... READ MORE
* Go Long a Volatile Market? * Setting Correction Targets for S&P 500. * Leaders and Laggards During the Rebound. * Scanning for Percent from High. * Semis, Housing and Transports Lag. "Never short a dull market" is an old Wall Street saying. Even though we cannot build a strategy on... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, February 16, 2018 On the surface, Friday's action didn't seem all that bad. While there was bifurcated action, three of our four major indices did finish in positive territory. The aggressive small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT) led the advance. Only the NASDAQ... READ MORE
The Law of Cause and Effect is a cornerstone principle of the Wyckoff Method. Cause building on the chart precedes the Effect of a Markup or a Markdown. Wyckoffians meticulously study trading ranges on the charts for Accumulation or Distribution characteristics. Analysis of Phases (Phases A thru E) track the... READ MORE
The significant components of my Weight of the Evidence are Price Measures and Breadth Measures. All of my Price Measures use the Nasdaq Composite Index which I have written about many times. If using the same price, then the difference between most price indicators is to offer varying time periods;... READ MORE
* Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows * European equities are facing a big challenge * Shanghai starting to look sick Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows Last week I suggested that the S&P had reached a resistance zone following its bounce from the early February panic... READ MORE
My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (circled... READ MORE
I'm sure most traders get tired of being told to be patient when the market or a specific stock is climbing day after day. Missing out on nice rallies can be extremely frustrating. But if there ever was a time when patience paid off big time it was... READ MORE
Fear ramped up with the early February selling and a capitulatory bottom (at least short-term) printed. The Volatility Index ($VIX) doesn't hit the 40-50 zone often and, when it does, it typically coincides with a panicked selloff and bottom. The last time we saw panicked selling (before the... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded this week as the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index ($SPXEW) recovered most of the losses from the previous week. On a closing basis, the index fell around 10% in nine days and then recovered around half of this loss with a 5.4% gain the last six... READ MORE
Last Friday the market executed a bullish intraday reversal, and this week it rallied five days straight; however, there were some problems. S&P 500 volume contracted into the rally, and Friday's candlestick was a bearish shooting star. I don't really use candlesticks much, but... READ MORE
Today on MarketWatchers LIVE, I did a workshop on bull and bear market rules. You'll hear many technicians discuss "bull market rules apply" or vice versa. The question is pertinent and timely right now. The jury is still out on whether we are about to enter... READ MORE
COMMODITY PULLBACK IS TIED TO STOCKS... My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place... READ MORE
Steve Jobs famously challenged everyone when he said, “We’re here to put a dent in the universe. Otherwise, why else be here?” I was fortunate recently to spend a couple of days in Napa Valley at the DENT 2018 conference. There’s nothing like spending quality time with lots... READ MORE
* Rubber Band Rebound. * A Bearish Breadth Thrust. * High-Low Percent Indicators Weaken. * %Above Indicators Remain Bullish. * Weight of the Evidence. * SPX Clears 50-day as VIX Falls. * Small-caps Take the Internal Lead. * Scan Code for Top ROC. * Tech-Related Industry Groups Lead. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Rubber Band Rebound... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, February 15, 2018 Selling is inevitable during bull markets. After each leg higher, there's typically a period of selling/consolidation. The bulls were spoiled for several months, as the bull market advance continued nearly uninterrupted. There really hadn't been any notable selling... READ MORE
Relative Rotation Graphs are a great tool to visualize sector rotation and that is probably where you will see them applied most. But they can be used for so many more (rotational) variations of different universes or similar universes in a different way. In this post, I will show you... READ MORE
* Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed * S&P is at short-term resistance * Some reliable short-term indicators not quite there yet * Yen breaks out from a large base Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed After five straight up days since the February 9 intraday... READ MORE
* Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through. * A Retest of the February Low? * Monitoring the Pennant Breakout. * Oil Bounces off Breakout Zone. * Use Continuous Contract Long-Term. * Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Firms. * Haliburton Returns to Breakout Zone. Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, February 14, 2018 Wall Street sure did look like it was heading for a very rough day at 8:30am EST on Wednesday. Very poor economic news hit traders with a 1-2 punch as the consumer price index jumped 0.5% instead of the 0.3%... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards didn't show any improvement from last week as the neutral and sell signals remained in the short term. PMO SELL signals are not yet on the weekly charts for these indexes, but they are lining up. If we see a pullback on the recent rally,... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES BOUNCE BACK FROM EARLY SELLING ... January's CPI report came in higher than expected and caused stocks to open lower. The headline reading of 2.1% and core reading (excluding food and energy) of 1.8% were higher than economists were expecting. After opening lower, stocks... READ MORE
There is another disconnect working between the VIX and SPY. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) opened weak with a dip below 265, but the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) also declined. This is an interesting dynamic because the VIX usually moves opposite of SPY. I am... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, February 13, 2018 The U.S. stock market settled down on Tuesday, trading in a much narrower range, and finished with gains across its major indices for the third consecutive day. While it was good to see the market stabilize after such panicked selling, there remains... READ MORE
The question that continues to arise this month is, "Is it over?". This correction was deeper than many expected or was about as deep as expected but it occurred so quickly. I'm finally getting some good news on my intermediate-term indicators, but not enough for me... READ MORE
REGIONAL BANK SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... One of the simplest ways to determine which stock groups, or individual stocks, are leading the market higher is to look for the ones that are clearing their 50-day moving averages first (or stayed above them). Yesterday's message showed the Consumer Discretionary... READ MORE
As with Charles Dow, I work under the assumption that the trend is in force until proven otherwise. And, in accordance with Dow Theory, neither the length nor the duration can be forecast. We can, however, identify trend changes and act accordingly. The stock market is in a delicate spot... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, February 12, 2018 Wall Street saw more gains on Monday, continuing the strength we saw late during the Friday session. Most of the strength, however, came during the morning session as the benchmark S&P 500 hit 2660, rising 130 points or approximately 5%, off... READ MORE
MARKETS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM 200-DAY LINE... Stocks continue to build on the upside reversal that took place on Friday from 200-day moving averages. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 gaining enough ground today to climb back over its 100-day line (green line). The... READ MORE
The CME Group (CME), which has a number of volatility-based futures products, runs a variety of futures and options exchanges including the CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. While the S&P 500 fell 8.82% over the last two weeks, CME Group actually gained ground and advanced 1.09%... READ MORE