Stocks close to new highs are usually in uptrends and have a good chance of recording new highs in the near future. Fortinet looks poised for a new high as challenges a channel line after an upturn last week. First and foremost, Fortinet is in a long-term uptrend with the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, November 10, 2017 Generally speaking, I'm not a big fan of defensive areas leading the market to the upside. But I'll make an exception for last week. Consumer staples (XLP, +1.02%) was not only the clear leader on Friday, but it&... READ MORE
In September, Terex Corp (TEX) saw big volume accompany a breakout of a bullish rectangular consolidation phase. After weeks of trending higher, momentum began to slow and TEX printed a "death" candle - a shooting star on big volume to end the uptrend. If there's one... READ MORE
Crude Oil lends itself to Wyckoff Analysis and has the capacity to trend for long periods of time. Take some time now and review a case study on the long swings for this important commodity (click here for the study). Note how well the Point and Figure charts have been... READ MORE
I should probably watch less business news, but I only have it on to catch any big news developments, and the sound is usually off. Nevertheless, I can't avoid some stuff that I'd rather filter out. For example, there was talk on Thursday and Friday about... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Wednesday message showed the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) testing its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the TNX gapping 7 basis points higher today after finding support at its 200-day line. I also mentioned on Wednesday that the 10-Year Treasury yield was... READ MORE
There are a number of companies that track performance for various asset classes, including the performance of investors. Table A, from J.P. Morgan, shows the Average Investor’s 20-year annualized returns of only 2.3%. I have reproduced the small print below the table because it explains the process... READ MORE
.... Risk-on versus Risk-off on One PerfChart .... Junk Bond ETF Falls Most Since August .... The Oxymoronic Nature of Technical Analysis .... SPY Hovers Near its Highs .... RSI Moves into Oversold Zone for IJR .... Finance, Industrials and Healthcare Lead Pullback .... Utilities SPDR Hits 52-week High .... Technology Remains a Leader (plus XLY) .... Industrials and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, November 9, 2017 Energy (XLE, +0.30%) returned to the top of the leaderboard and this is what's likely to irritate the bears in the future. We now have another sector that's technical capable to take on new money as money rotates... READ MORE
Growth versus value and a possible mega breakout favoring growth * The technology/staples ratio supports the growth/value breakout * Some credit spreads are looking shaky * Are stocks finally breaking against commodities? Growth versus value and a possible mega-breakout favoring growth Chart 1 compares the performance of the S&P... READ MORE
Today's decline was enough to push the OEX and Dow PMO BUY signals off the DP Scoreboards. The NDX is still looking good with the PMO actually rising right now. However, if the other indexes continue to decline, it is very likely the NDX will follow suit. Gold... READ MORE
While it would be great for the stock market to rise every day without any selling whatsoever, that's just not practical. As a trader, I await episodes of selling to set up much better reward to risk trades in stocks that remain in long-term uptrends. Enter PNC Financial... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, November 8, 2017 It was another day of records for most of our major indices with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all closing at their highest levels ever. Consumer staples (XLP, +1.09%) led the advance and I feature this group in... READ MORE
.... Is the Bond Market Sending a Message? .... IJR Triggers Mean Reversion Signal .... RSI Turns Up for the Health Care SPDR .... When Ugly Charts Provide Opportunities .... Biotech iShares Dip for the Third Time .... I wrote about the unadjusted High-Yield Bond ETF (_HYG) on October 31st and junk bonds fell rather sharply... READ MORE
As noted, a new technical alert arrived in my email inbox this afternoon. I was surprised that I didn't receive word of any DP Scoreboard PMO signal changes, but seeing TLT grab an ITTM BUY signal wasn't surprising. I think TLT is at an interesting "... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS PULLING BACK ... After reaching the highest level in seven months during October, the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has experienced a pullback. Chart 1 shows, however, that pullback in the TNX over the last two weeks hasn't been enough to reverse its general uptrend. It... READ MORE
Fiserv gapped down and fell on big volume last week, but the candlestick points to an accumulation day and the Accumulation Distribution Line hit a new high. First and foremost, the big trend is up because Fiserve hit a 52-week high with a move above 130 in late October. FISV... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, November 7, 2017 Small cap stocks felt a slight tremor on Tuesday as the Russell 2000 ($RUT, -1.26%) suffered its worst day in nearly three months. While losses never feel good, I believe the RUT is in a bullish advance similar to the one it... READ MORE
Yes, the PMO BUY signal on the SPX has already disappeared. Unfortunately with the margin so thin between the PMO and its signal line (thousandths of a point), this likely will change again tomorrow if the SPX can close higher. What is interesting...the SPY never managed a PMO BUY... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, November 6, 2017 Energy (XLE, +2.29%) shares made a huge advance on Monday as money rotated to this once-forgotten sector in a very big way. Bull markets thrive on broad participation in rallies and the XLE had been one sector not participating. That is no... READ MORE
.... Mid-cap and Large-cap ETFs Hit New Highs .... Checking the Mean-Reversion Trade for IJR .... Small-caps are Really Really Small .... Momentum ETF Extends its Lead .... Gold Ignores Strength in TLT and UUP .... Darden and Tiffany .... Keycorp Consolidates after Surge .... Two Mean-Reversion Setups (GD, STT) .... Freeport McMoran Bounces off Support .... Small-caps are leading... READ MORE
It's official! All four DecisionPoint Scoreboards are on BUY signals in all three timeframes on the PMO and Trend Models. Tom Bowley and I continue to discuss during the MarketWatchers LIVE show about the hurricane force bull market winds. If these Scoreboards don't convince you, I&... READ MORE
Schlumberger (SLB) broke support with a surge in volume, but this support break did not hold as the stock surged with strong volume the last two weeks. The decline below 62 looks like a selling climax because of high volume and the gap down. The surge in volume flushes out... READ MORE
Special Notes First, please join me and Erin Swenlin for MarketWatchers LIVE every day from Noon EST to 1:30pm EST. We discuss key technical developments that you need to be aware of as you manage your wealth. Previously, MarketWatchers LIVE aired just three days a week, but beginning today,... READ MORE
Tesla is proving to be an excellent ongoing case study. We suspect that the Composite Operator (CO) is very active in the electric automobile manufacturer. Please take a few minutes and review two prior posts; ‘The Point and Figure Distribution Paradox’ (click here) and ‘Shorts Find Tesla Shocking’ (click here)... READ MORE
IBM has been a very interesting stock to watch, but not to own. After 23 consecutive quarters of declining revenues, traders finally found something to be excited about in IBM's latest quarterly earnings report. Five years ago, IBM traded near 165. At Friday's close, it was... READ MORE
WTIC COMPLETES BULLISH BREAKOUT... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show WTIC Light Crude Oil ending the week above its early 2017 peak near $55 for the first time in more than two years. That upside breakout puts WTIC in sync with Brent Crude Oil which rose over $60 for... READ MORE
When considering this question, I believe the correlation indicator tells us most of what we need to know. After all, we're pondering which global market movements tend to be reflected in similar movements in the U.S. market. For purposes of the U.S. market, I'll... READ MORE
An uptrend means prices are advancing and higher highs are the order of the day. We do not know how long a trend will persist, but there is clear evidence that trends persist. Just look at the S&P 500 since early 2016 for a recent example. The 50-day... READ MORE
My Wednesday message showed Brent Crude Oil trading over $60 for the first time in more than two years. Brent is trading over $62 today. It also showed West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) trying to break through overhead resistance at $55. Chart 1 shows WTIC trading slightly above that... READ MORE
Of my comment, "Not out of the woods yet," you might ask, "What woods?" The market, after all, did manage to grind higher this week, so what's the problem? The problem that I see is a persistent weakness in our intermediate-term indicators, but we... READ MORE
I've been expecting a new PMO BUY signal on both the SPX and the OEX. The OEX managed to wrangle the PMO above its signal line, but the SPX is struggling to garner its PMO BUY signal. Big news on Oil! We just got a new Long-Term Trend... READ MORE
WTIC CRUDE OIL ATTEMPTING BULLISH BREAKOUT OVER $55... My Wednesday message showed Brent Crude Oil trading over $60 for the first time in more than two years. Brent is trading over $62 today. It also showed West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) trying to break through overhead resistance at $55.... READ MORE
Earnings Season is winding down. So far it's been quite positive. How do I know? Just look at the overall market. We certainly saw strong earnings from the tech giants including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. In fact all of these are ripe for nice trades IF you... READ MORE
A note to my readers: It is with great pride that I have written The Traders Journal blog every week since 2012 — 52 weeks a year. I am deeply grateful for the support and loyal following of all my readers throughout that time. However, I must announce that today marks... READ MORE
.... Those Pesky Timeframes .... SPY Notches another New High .... Broad Advance Lifts QQQ to New Highs .... IJR Fluctuates within Bullish Consolidation .... Finance and Technology Lead .... Consumer Discretionary Struggles Internally .... Utilities and Materials are Close to 52-week Highs .... Industrials and Healthcare Pull Back within Uptrends .... XLE Breaks Flag Resistance as Oil Hits... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, November 2, 2017 Financials (XLF, +0.94%) and industrials (XLI, +0.57%) led a Dow Jones rally on Thursday. Goldman Sachs (GS) paced the financial stocks in the Dow with more than a 1% gain, while Boeing (BA) was the best performing Dow component and the... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph above plots a number of world equity markets against the FTSE all-world index and shows their relative rotation around this benchmark. With all the chatter going around on the S&P 50o index camping in the nose-bleed area this gives a refreshing angle to look... READ MORE
* SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB) * iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) * Euro and yen looking vulnerable Limitations being proposed for the popular interest rate deduction on tax filings hit the two homebuilder ETF’s for six on Thursday. These are the SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB) and the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB)... READ MORE
I know we all have seen the commercials for the newest or best investment of the decade. Now we are getting emails flooding our inboxes claiming to have an "investment of a lifetime"! I'm not saying that these are traps or always bad, but I can... READ MORE