Bull markets can advance very quickly and can become extremely overbought. It's a challenge psychologically at times to commit new money t0 a stock or ETF, knowing that just days or weeks ago prices were so much cheaper. So what the heck do you do when looking to... READ MORE
2018 is off to a great start with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) up 5% in just 13 trading days. The rally is quite broad with six of the nine equal-weight sectors up 5% or more. I am showing the equal-weight sectors first because they reflect performance for... READ MORE
Most of you are familiar with the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) and its use on my individual stock, ETF, index charts. However, by analyzing the health of the PMOs within an index, we are able to get a reliable market indicator. The PMO Analysis charts that are in the DecisionPoint... READ MORE
Friday was the last trading day before options expiration, so higher than normal volume should be attributed to that, not to other interpretations of volume versus price movement. We began the trading week with another breakout to new, all-time highs, but that turned into an intraday reversal. But not to... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD TOUCHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield touching the highest level in three years today. A decisive close above its late 2016 peak (2.62%) would signal even higher rates. That's a lot better for stocks than it... READ MORE
Yes, the markets are extended. All prudent investors should be reviewing the Permission-to-Sell Dashboard (ChartList 10.4) every week. We’ve added another useful market timing chart and made all 15 charts more muscular. The times are a’ changing in the ETF arena as well. Hundreds are closing and new... READ MORE
* Pow, Straight to the Moon! * Group Leaders and Laggards. * Strategy Going Forward. * Fresh Highs for SPY and QQQ. * A Tough Week for Small-Caps. * Eight of Ten Sector SPDRs Hit New Highs. * XLU and IYR Drop out of Oversold Watch. * Pullbacks Zones to Watch (XME,SLX,COPX,XES, AMJ). * Money Continues... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, January 18, 2018 Thursday was not a great day for the bulls. We haven't seen too many times since the August low where all of our major indices finished lower on the session. Yesterday, however, was one of those days. But the action recently... READ MORE
One of my favorite segments to do and watch on the MarketWatchers LIVE show M-F 12:00p - 1:30p EST is the "Anatomy of a Trade". Tom Bowley, my co-host, is a very short-term trader and generally has a handful of trades to discuss. However, I'... READ MORE
* Setting the Market Regime and Ground Rules. * Sample Signals for SPY and IJR. * Backtest Results. * I Know What You are Thinking. * Conclusions. Mean-reversion trading systems are designed to buy the dip during bull markets. The assumption is that the trend is the major force at work and prices will revert... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, January 17, 2018 The Dow Jones didn't fail this time. After Tuesday's huge reversal from above the 26,000 level, there were a number of question marks about whether the current rally would continue. The Dow Jones answered those questions rather emphatically... READ MORE
As we watch the SPX continue to move higher in parabolic fashion, it's of course natural to begin to worry about a market collapse. During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, Tom and I went over what we think are good "alerts" to the bear market... READ MORE
MARKET INDEXES NEAR YESTERDAY'S INTRA-DAY HIGH ... Stocks are making a strong comeback after yesterday afternoon's pullback. The charts below show 30-minute price bars for the three major stock indexes. All three are approaching the intra-day highs reached yesterday. Chart 1 also shows the Dow Industrials back... READ MORE
PayChex (PAYX), which has nothing to do with Chex cereal, ended its correction with a three-day surge and wedge breakout. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up as the stock broke out in early October and hit a 52-week high in December. The stock was quite extended after 30%... READ MORE
* Raff Regression Channels and Steep Uptrends. * Chandelier Exit Holds Entire Uptrend. * SPY Nears Flag Target. * Buy the Dip in Bull Markets. Raff Regression Channels and Steep Uptrends There is no such thing as the perfect indicator or the perfect settings, but I would like to show a method to quantify... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, January 16, 2018 Tuesday was perhaps the most bearish day we've seen in quite awhile. For starters, volume on our major indices was the heaviest in the past 6-7 weeks, excluding option expiration Friday on December 15th. But the heavy volume, by itself, wasn&... READ MORE
* Dark cloud cover explained * What enhances a dark cloud signal * How long is its bearish effect likely to last? Dark cloud cover explained The weather forecast this morning was for wintery weather on the East Coast. However, a more sobering non-meteorological message has been given by the stock market. Tuesday’... READ MORE
* SPY and QQQ Lead the 2018 Surge. * Moving from Corrective Mode to Trend Mode. * Déjà vu for HRB and ACH. * Playing the Short Correction (NEWM, LYV, YUM). * AXL Breaks Out of Big Correction. * LPX Makes Good on Third Bounce. * AGCO Forms Classic Bullish Continuation Pattern. SPY and QQQ Lead the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, January 12, 2018 U.S. equities had another nice rally on Friday, this time led by a very strong consumer discretionary sector (XLY, +1.29%). Eight of the nine sectors finished higher, with utilities (XLU, -0.57%) the only area failing to participate. The XLU tends... READ MORE
In my last blog, we looked at the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrials Index and more specifically at the relative positioning and relative rotation of these 30 stocks around their common denominator the DJ Industrials index ($INDU). And despite the fact that this is valuable information you may... READ MORE
* CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance * Key intermarket relationships starting to point in an inflationary direction * Inter-asset ratios also confirm the inflationary scenario * Euro breaks to the upside CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance Late last month I wrote about several charts I was watching for a possible breakout in... READ MORE
In my first article of this series I outlined the concepts that would be discussed in this series. See HERE. In this article we need to discuss some of the building blocks that will be used and how to interpret them. Description of Binary and Analog Measures I actually prefer... READ MORE
A big thank you to Erin Swenlin and Tom Bowley for hosting me on MarketWatchers LIVE this past Wednesday. I had a blast being on their excellent (and Live) market program. The Wyckoff topic we covered was Reaccumulation structures. There were a few interesting intra-day charts that we did not... READ MORE
Positive events resulting from the recent tax cut legislation continued to lift the market this week, bonuses and pay raises being most prominent in the headlines. I'm sure that there is a substantial element of anticipation as to the positive effects of corporate taxes being cut by 40%... READ MORE
EURO REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... Yesterday's message showed the euro on the verge of a new three-year high. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the eurozone currency achieving that bullish breakout in today's trading. I also mentioned yesterday that a move above 1.20 would push... READ MORE
* A Change in Market Regime. * Be Careful with the Price Relative. * Small-caps are Just Getting Started. * Animal Spirits Find IJR. * SPY "Overbought" Period Hits Day 70. * Seven of Ten Sector SPDRs Hit New Highs. * Two Small-cap Sectors to Watch. * 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF Extends Breakdown. * Gold Stalls after... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, January 11, 2018 The small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT) led U.S. indices higher on Thursday with more across-the-board record highs being set. The RUT gained 1.73%, more than doubling the advance on any of the other major indices. There were plenty of reasons, but... READ MORE
Today I received notice that TLT had triggered a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signal. I decided to take a look at $TYX to see if yields were lining up with the action on TLT. Of course the relationship between TLT and $TYX is inverse, so a bearish TLT... READ MORE
A LONGER TERM LOOK AT RISING BOND YIELDS... Chart evidence of a major upturn in Treasury bond yields continues to grow. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) nearing a test of its late 2016 intra-day peak at 2.62%. A decisive move above that... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, January 10, 2018 We saw losses across our major indices on Wednesday, but the bulls spent most of the day recovering from steeper losses just after the opening bell. Losses were inconsequential as they ranged from 0.02% on the aggressive Russell 2000 (small caps) to... READ MORE
* Cyber Security ETF Surges to New High. * Two Cyber Security Stocks to Watch. * Finisar Bounces off Key Retracement. * Win Some and Lose Some (AYI, BLL). Cyber Security ETF Surges to New High The Cyber Security ETF (HACK) lagged the broader market from June to mid November, but caught fire and... READ MORE
MGM Resorts (MGM) is gearing up for a resistance challenge and the speculator in me expects a breakout. First and foremost, MGM is in a long-term uptrend with the September 7th spike marking a 52-week high. The 50-day EMA is also above the 200-day EMA and price is well above... READ MORE
Note At the bottom of this article, you can type in your email address and hit the green "Notify Me" button to subscribe to my blog for FREE! Then my article will immediately be sent to your email address upon publishing. Thanks! Market Recap for Tuesday, January 9,... READ MORE
* Basic changes in long-term momentum * The five-year maturity is signalling an end to the secular decline in yields * Twenty-year yield showing signs of basing * Ten-year attacking mega down trend line * From a short-term aspect bond prices look vulnerable * Utilities about to crash? Basic changes in long-term momentum Since the beginning... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to 2.53% which is the highest level since last March. That leaves little doubt that the trend for Treasury yields is upward. Part of the reason for today'... READ MORE
* Small-cap ETF Triggers a Signal. * Regional Bank SPDR Gaps within a Triangle. * Earnings Season Starts Soon. * Five Automakers Hit New Highs - Who's Next? * Three Healthcare Stocks Setting Up Bullish. Small-cap ETF Triggers a Signal The S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) hit a 52-week closing high on... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, January 8, 2018 After mostly a weak start on Monday, our major indices resumed their bullish ways and finished with positive returns. The lone exception was the Dow Jones, which dropped 13 points to end its impressive winning streak to open 2018. Weakness in Unitedhealth Group... READ MORE
Carl always told me that you shouldn't put questions in the title of your articles unless you plan on answering them. I will. First, I want to point out the all green DecisionPoint Scoreboards. As I told listeners this morning, since I've been tracking these Scoreboards... READ MORE
Broadcom (AVGO) fell on hards time in December with a decline to the breakout zone, but this zone ultimately held and it looks like the uptrend is ready to resume. First and foremost, AVGO is in a long-term uptrend after the big breakout in October and the 52-week highs in... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph shows the members of the DJ Industrials index against $INDU. This is a so-called closed universe which means that all elements that make up the universe are present in the plot. If we would calculate all the distances (vectors) from the center of the chart to... READ MORE