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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Small Caps and Retailers Take the Lead - Energy Hits Moment of Truth

Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Small Caps and Retailers Take the Lead - Energy Hits Moment of Truth

.... Broad Strength in the Nasdaq 100 .... IJR Bounces from Oversold Levels .... Small-cap Sector Leaders .... Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary Surge .... Retail SPDR Goes for a Bottom .... Starbucks, Nike and Disney Power XLY Higher .... SPY Bounces as QQQ Hits New High .... Four Sectors Correct (XLF, XLI, XLB, XLV) .... Bobby, Billy and Arthur...   READ MORE 

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Russell 2000 Soars After Nearing Initial Fibonacci Retracement Level

Russell 2000 Soars After Nearing Initial Fibonacci Retracement Level

Market Recap for Thursday, November 16, 2017 U.S. indices spiked sharply higher on Thursday's open in contrast to many recent days where the bulls have found themselves underwater in early action, trying to reclaim control of the action throughout the balance of the session.  Yesterday, there wasn&...   READ MORE 

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S&P 600 Bounces Off Support - IT Indicators Oversold

S&P 600 Bounces Off Support - IT Indicators Oversold

I had this article in the queue yesterday with the headline "S&P 600 Nearing Important Support". Well, it turned out to be a bounce off that support today. Small-caps have been hit hard while most large-cap indexes spent the last month consolidating and moving slightly lower....   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF IS BOUNCING SHARPLY OFF CHART SUPPORT -- MOST OF ITS RECENT SELLING HAS BEEN IN THE TELECOM SECTOR -- INDIVIDUAL TELECOM STOCKS...

GLOBAL STOCKS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF IS BOUNCING SHARPLY OFF CHART SUPPORT -- MOST OF ITS RECENT SELLING HAS BEEN IN THE TELECOM SECTOR -- INDIVIDUAL TELECOM STOCKS ARE REBOUNDING FROM OVERSOLD CONDITIONS

HIGH YIELD BOND ISHARES BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... The recent selloff in high yield junk bonds has attracted a lot of attention in the financial media. My Tuesday message showed the iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond iShares (HYG) headed down for a test of chart support at its August...   READ MORE 

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The Deception of Average

The Deception of Average

I mentioned in the last article I would discuss ‘average’ soon; so here it is, sooner than I thought. The “World of Finance” is fraught with misleading information.  The use of average is one that needs a discussion.  Chart A is a chart showing the compounded rates of return for...   READ MORE 

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Selling Grips Wall Street, Key Moving Average Lost

Selling Grips Wall Street, Key Moving Average Lost

Market Recap for Wednesday, November 15, 2017 Eight of nine sectors lost ground on Wednesday and while that, along with a couple major indices closing beneath their respective 20 day EMAs, might be cause for concern, I actually thought much of the action was bullish.  First and foremost, the tech-heavy...   READ MORE 

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A Raging Battle in the Bond Market - Junk Bond Update - Big Banks - Copper - Biotechs - Disney

A Raging Battle in the Bond Market - Junk Bond Update - Big Banks - Copper - Biotechs - Disney

.... A Raging Battle in the Bond Market .... Junk Bond Update .... Big Banks Shrug off Yield Plunge .... Copper Corrects with Bullish Wedge .... And then there were Three .... Biotech SPDR Becomes Oversold Again .... Competition Increasing for NetFlix .... Disney Goes for Lift Off  .... A Raging Battle in the Bond Market There is a...   READ MORE 

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Western Digital Breaks Out of Continuation Pattern

Western Digital Breaks Out of Continuation Pattern

Western Digital (WDC) appears to be emerging from a consolidation pattern and this increases the chances of new highs in the coming weeks. The chart shows WDC hitting a new high in July and then falling with a rather sharp decline into early August. The stock immediately rebounded after this...   READ MORE 

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Technology Weakening, But How Much Selling Might We Expect?

Technology Weakening, But How Much Selling Might We Expect?

Market Recap for Tuesday, November 14, 2017 For the third time in the last four days, we saw U.S. equities gap lower, only to reverse intraday to close near their highs of the session.  It's still resulted in losses for the day, but it also shows the...   READ MORE 

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Commodities: Are They About To Experience A Pause?

Commodities: Are They About To Experience A Pause?

The long-term picture * Is the stock market smarter than the commodity market? * Commodity indexes short-term overbought The long-term picture Since mid-summer, commodity prices reflected in broadly based indexes such as the CRB ($CRB), Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) or the DB Commodity ETF (DBC) have been on a tear. However, short-term...   READ MORE 

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DP Alert: SPY Rising Trend Channel Broken - DP Indicators Bearish in ST and IT - PMO SELL on UUP

DP Alert: SPY Rising Trend Channel Broken - DP Indicators Bearish in ST and IT - PMO SELL on UUP

Since November 9th, the DP Scoreboards have been quiet. It isn't surprising to see the weakness on these Scoreboards to be short-term momentum given the recent decline. The SPY/SPX have now dropped below rising trend channels, but support remains. With DP indicators looking bearish, we could be...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS TAKE ON A MORE DEFENSIVE TONE AS STAPLES AND UTILITIES TAKE THE LEAD -- UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD -- JUNK BOND SELLOFF IS ANOTHER CAUTION SIGNAL -- SELLOFF IN DOLLAR MAY BE PUSHING S...

STOCKS TAKE ON A MORE DEFENSIVE TONE AS STAPLES AND UTILITIES TAKE THE LEAD -- UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD -- JUNK BOND SELLOFF IS ANOTHER CAUTION SIGNAL -- SELLOFF IN DOLLAR MAY BE PUSHING SOME DEFENSIVE MONEY BACK INTO GOLD

UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD ... With the rest of the market on the defensive, utility stocks are having another strong day. Chart 1 shows the Utilities Sector SPDR (XLU) climbing to another record high today. Utilities are the day's strongest sector (along with consumer staples), while all other sectors...   READ MORE 

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Energy sector bursting into leading quadrant on Relative Rotation Graph, strong potential for EOG and COP

Energy sector bursting into leading quadrant on Relative Rotation Graph, strong potential for EOG and COP

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows all the members of the S&P 500 Energy sector against XLE, the ETF that tracks the Energy sector price index. The main reason for looking at this universe at the moment is the fact that the sector (XLE) on the RRG for...   READ MORE 

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Dissecting the Medical Devices Group - Discount Brokers with Bullish Continuation Patterns - Banks, Gold, Utes and the 10-yr Yield

Dissecting the Medical Devices Group - Discount Brokers with Bullish Continuation Patterns - Banks, Gold, Utes and the 10-yr Yield

.... Medical Devices Group Leads Healthcare .... Medtronic Bids to End Correction .... Abbot Labs Leads Medical Device Group .... Boston Scientific Bounces from Oversold Levels .... Four Medical Device Stocks (WAT, VAR, ALOG, CMD) .... First Oversold Readings Since Breakouts (BMY, BIIB) .... Discount Brokers Consolidate within Uptrends .... Banks, Utilities, Gold and the 10-yr T-Yield .... Medical...   READ MORE 

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Industrials Are Teaching Us How To Evaluate Risk....If We'll Listen

Industrials Are Teaching Us How To Evaluate Risk....If We'll Listen

Reminder If you enjoy my blog, be sure to subscribe at the bottom of this article!  Just type in your email address and click on the green "Notify Me!" button.  My articles will then be sent to your email immediately upon publishing!  It's 100% free and...   READ MORE 

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HALO - Angel or Devil?

HALO - Angel or Devil?

As part of the MarketWatchers LIVE show (airs M-F, 12p-1:30p - You'll find today's recording under the "Webinars" tab), Tom Bowley and I come up with set-ups on Monday. We call the segment "Monday Set-Ups". This segment has an eye toward...   READ MORE 

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Fortinet Bids to End Long Correction

Fortinet Bids to End Long Correction

Stocks close to new highs are usually in uptrends and have a good chance of recording new highs in the near future. Fortinet looks poised for a new high as challenges a channel line after an upturn last week. First and foremost, Fortinet is in a long-term uptrend with the...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Staples Finish Off Strong Week, Hold Trendline Support

Consumer Staples Finish Off Strong Week, Hold Trendline Support

Market Recap for Friday, November 10, 2017 Generally speaking, I'm not a big fan of defensive areas leading the market to the upside.  But I'll make an exception for last week.  Consumer staples (XLP, +1.02%) was not only the clear leader on Friday, but it&...   READ MORE 

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Want To Know When To Sell? Terex Is A Perfect Example

Want To Know When To Sell? Terex Is A Perfect Example

In September, Terex Corp (TEX) saw big volume accompany a breakout of a bullish rectangular consolidation phase.  After weeks of trending higher, momentum began to slow and TEX printed a "death" candle - a shooting star on big volume to end the uptrend.  If there's one...   READ MORE 

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Crude Oil Runs with the Bulls

Crude Oil Runs with the Bulls

Crude Oil lends itself to Wyckoff Analysis and has the capacity to trend for long periods of time. Take some time now and review a case study on the long swings for this important commodity (click here for the study). Note how well the Point and Figure charts have been...   READ MORE 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Buy the Dip? What Dip?

DP Weekly Wrap: Buy the Dip? What Dip?

I should probably watch less business news, but I only have it on to catch any big news developments, and the sound is usually off. Nevertheless, I can't avoid some stuff that I'd rather filter out. For example, there was talk on Thursday and Friday about...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD GAPS HIGHER -- 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES GAP DOWN AND LOOK TOPPY -- THEIR LONGER-RANGE CHART ALSO SUGGESTS A MAJOR BOND TOP IN THE MAKING -- FINANCIAL SPDR AND...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD GAPS HIGHER -- 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES GAP DOWN AND LOOK TOPPY -- THEIR LONGER-RANGE CHART ALSO SUGGESTS A MAJOR BOND TOP IN THE MAKING -- FINANCIAL SPDR AND SMALL CAPS ARE TESTING SUPPORT AT THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Wednesday message showed the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) testing its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the TNX gapping 7 basis points higher today after finding support at its 200-day line. I also mentioned on Wednesday that the 10-Year Treasury yield was...   READ MORE 

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WHY do Most Investors do so Poorly?

WHY do Most Investors do so Poorly?

There are a number of companies that track performance for various asset classes, including the performance of investors.  Table A, from J.P. Morgan, shows the Average Investor’s 20-year annualized returns of only 2.3%.  I have reproduced the small print below the table because it explains the process...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/ video) - Junk Bonds Fall Hard

Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/ video) - Junk Bonds Fall Hard

.... Risk-on versus Risk-off on One PerfChart .... Junk Bond ETF Falls Most Since August .... The Oxymoronic Nature of Technical Analysis  .... SPY Hovers Near its Highs .... RSI Moves into Oversold Zone for IJR .... Finance, Industrials and Healthcare Lead Pullback .... Utilities SPDR Hits 52-week High .... Technology Remains a Leader (plus XLY) .... Industrials and...   READ MORE 

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Early Losses Result In Successful Moving Average Tests; Overbought Conditions Unwinding

Early Losses Result In Successful Moving Average Tests; Overbought Conditions Unwinding

Market Recap for Thursday, November 9, 2017 Energy (XLE, +0.30%) returned to the top of the leaderboard and this is what's likely to irritate the bears in the future.  We now have another sector that's technical capable to take on new money as money rotates...   READ MORE 

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Growth Is Breaking Out Against Value

Growth Is Breaking Out Against Value

Growth versus value and a possible mega breakout favoring growth * The technology/staples ratio supports the growth/value breakout * Some credit spreads are looking shaky * Are stocks finally breaking against commodities? Growth versus value and a possible mega-breakout favoring growth Chart 1 compares the performance of the S&P...   READ MORE 

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DP Bulletin: NDX Only PMO BUY Signal Left - Gold PMO BUY Signal

DP Bulletin: NDX Only PMO BUY Signal Left - Gold PMO BUY Signal

Today's decline was enough to push the OEX and Dow PMO BUY signals off the DP Scoreboards. The NDX is still looking good with the PMO actually rising right now. However, if the other indexes continue to decline, it is very likely the NDX will follow suit. Gold...   READ MORE 

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Selling Allows PNC Financial To Unwind For Solid Reward To Risk Trade

Selling Allows PNC Financial To Unwind For Solid Reward To Risk Trade

While it would be great for the stock market to rise every day without any selling whatsoever, that's just not practical.  As a trader, I await episodes of selling to set up much better reward to risk trades in stocks that remain in long-term uptrends.  Enter PNC Financial...   READ MORE 

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Futures Down Sharply; The 9th Calendar Day Of Month Strikes Again

Futures Down Sharply; The 9th Calendar Day Of Month Strikes Again

Market Recap for Wednesday, November 8, 2017 It was another day of records for most of our major indices with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all closing at their highest levels ever.  Consumer staples (XLP, +1.09%) led the advance and I feature this group in...   READ MORE 

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Does the Bond Market Have a Message for the Stock Market? - Plus Mean-Reversion Setups for IJR, XLV and IBB

Does the Bond Market Have a Message for the Stock Market? - Plus Mean-Reversion Setups for IJR, XLV and IBB

.... Is the Bond Market Sending a Message? .... IJR Triggers Mean Reversion Signal .... RSI Turns Up for the Health Care SPDR .... When Ugly Charts Provide Opportunities .... Biotech iShares Dip for the Third Time .... I wrote about the unadjusted High-Yield Bond ETF (_HYG) on October 31st and junk bonds fell rather sharply...   READ MORE 

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DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signal for Bonds (TLT)

DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signal for Bonds (TLT)

As noted, a new technical alert arrived in my email inbox this afternoon. I was surprised that I didn't receive word of any DP Scoreboard PMO signal changes, but seeing TLT grab an ITTM BUY signal wasn't surprising. I think TLT is at an interesting "...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS IN SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- IT'S BEING HELD BACK BY EVEN WEAKER FOREIGN YIELDS -- THAT EXPLAINS RECENT WEAKNESS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- COMMODITY PRICES CONT...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS IN SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- IT'S BEING HELD BACK BY EVEN WEAKER FOREIGN YIELDS -- THAT EXPLAINS RECENT WEAKNESS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS PULLING BACK ... After reaching the highest level in seven months during October, the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has experienced a pullback. Chart 1 shows, however, that pullback in the TNX over the last two weeks hasn't been enough to reverse its general uptrend. It...   READ MORE 

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Fiserve Shows Resilience with Move into Gap Zone

Fiserve Shows Resilience with Move into Gap Zone

Fiserv gapped down and fell on big volume last week, but the candlestick points to an accumulation day and the Accumulation Distribution Line hit a new high. First and foremost, the big trend is up because Fiserve hit a 52-week high with a move above 130 in late October. FISV...   READ MORE 

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Russell 2000 Takes Biggest Hit In Three Months; Watch This Support Level

Russell 2000 Takes Biggest Hit In Three Months; Watch This Support Level

Market Recap for Tuesday, November 7, 2017 Small cap stocks felt a slight tremor on Tuesday as the Russell 2000 ($RUT, -1.26%) suffered its worst day in nearly three months.  While losses never feel good, I believe the RUT is in a bullish advance similar to the one it...   READ MORE 

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DecisionPoint Alert: SPX Back on PMO SELL - Oil Flourishes, Gold Support Holding Strong

DecisionPoint Alert: SPX Back on PMO SELL - Oil Flourishes, Gold Support Holding Strong

Yes, the PMO BUY signal on the SPX has already disappeared. Unfortunately with the margin so thin between the PMO and its signal line (thousandths of a point), this likely will change again tomorrow if the SPX can close higher. What is interesting...the SPY never managed a PMO BUY...   READ MORE 

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Energy Explodes Higher As Crude Oil Tops $57 Per Barrel; Time For Small Caps Again?

Energy Explodes Higher As Crude Oil Tops $57 Per Barrel; Time For Small Caps Again?

Market Recap for Monday, November 6, 2017 Energy (XLE, +2.29%) shares made a huge advance on Monday as money rotated to this once-forgotten sector in a very big way.  Bull markets thrive on broad participation in rallies and the XLE had been one sector not participating.  That is no...   READ MORE 

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Small Caps are Really Really Small - Gold Firms at Key Retracement - Plus DRI, FCX, GD, KEY, STT and TIF

Small Caps are Really Really Small - Gold Firms at Key Retracement - Plus DRI, FCX, GD, KEY, STT and TIF

.... Mid-cap and Large-cap ETFs Hit New Highs .... Checking the Mean-Reversion Trade for IJR .... Small-caps are Really Really Small .... Momentum ETF Extends its Lead .... Gold Ignores Strength in TLT and UUP .... Darden and Tiffany .... Keycorp Consolidates after Surge .... Two Mean-Reversion Setups (GD, STT) .... Freeport McMoran Bounces off Support .... Small-caps are leading...   READ MORE 

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DP Bulletin: New PMO BUY Signal on SPX - Scoreboards All Green!

DP Bulletin: New PMO BUY Signal on SPX - Scoreboards All Green!

It's official! All four DecisionPoint Scoreboards are on BUY signals in all three timeframes on the PMO and Trend Models. Tom Bowley and I continue to discuss during the MarketWatchers LIVE show about the hurricane force bull market winds. If these Scoreboards don't convince you, I&...   READ MORE 

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Schlumberger Springs a Bear Trap with Big Volume

Schlumberger Springs a Bear Trap with Big Volume

Schlumberger (SLB) broke support with a surge in volume, but this support break did not hold as the stock surged with strong volume the last two weeks. The decline below 62 looks like a selling climax because of high volume and the gap down. The surge in volume flushes out...   READ MORE 

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Familiar Names Pace Healthcare, Technology; Major Indices Rise Again

Familiar Names Pace Healthcare, Technology; Major Indices Rise Again

Special Notes First, please join me and Erin Swenlin for MarketWatchers LIVE every day from Noon EST to 1:30pm EST.  We discuss key technical developments that you need to be aware of as you manage your wealth.  Previously, MarketWatchers LIVE aired just three days a week, but beginning today,...   READ MORE