The above Relative Rotation Graph holds some ETFs representing various asset classes and compares the against VBINX, a balanced index fund that holds 60% equities and 40% bonds. The most striking observation is the fact that there is only one asset class on the right-hand side of the plot AND... READ MORE
You might find it surprising, but healthcare (XLV, +15.51%) has posted the best six month performance among all sectors - even technology (XLK, +14.10%). All five industry groups within healthcare have gained 10% or more in the past six months with medical supplies ($DJUSMS, +23.32%) leading the... READ MORE
The Wyckoff Method is designed for the campaign oriented trader. Discipline, patience and vision are the skills required to conduct a bull or bear campaign from start to finish. Wyckoff provides outstanding tools for executing on such a trading orientation. Point and Figure offers a technique for estimating the extent... READ MORE
There is always something for the market to wait for. Last week it was options expiration, and this week it was the Fed meeting. There was nothing new from the Fed, so there were no market hiccups as a result. SPY made new, all-time highs again this week. On Thursday... READ MORE
It’s hard to believe but exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been with us now for 24 years. Who would have guessed? Perhaps John Bogle. As a rule, investors buy Sector ETFs to smooth out the ride and decrease volatility. The classic measurement of volatility is, of course, the statistical measurement... READ MORE
CURRENCIES HAVE AN IMPACT ON INFLATION RATES... Persistently low inflation is worrying central bankers around the globe. Even the Fed has expressed more concern of late. Central bankers in Australia, Canada, Europe, and Japan have also mentioned low inflation as restraining them from abandoning their ultra-loose monetary policies. So far,... READ MORE
.... Market Breadth is Bullish Enough .... New Highs Still Outpacing New Lows .... SPY Notches another New High .... Equal-weights Keep Pace on the Chart .... QQQ Surges to New High .... Majority of Sectors Confirm New Highs .... XLY and XLK Lead Recent Surge .... Regional Banks Weigh on Finance Sector .... 10-yr T-Yield Makes Breakout Attempt... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, July 27, 2017 The mostly unabated rise in technology shares off the early July low took a sudden turn lower on Thursday afternoon and the initial reactions to quarterly earnings reports from Amazon.com (AMZN) and Starbucks (SBUX) won't help this morning as they&... READ MORE
The NASDAQ 100 has been quite strong in 2017, but it's not because of Tractor Supply's (TSCO) performance. TSCO had lost one third of its market value from the beginning of the year through early July, but a positive divergence emerged and that suggested that downside... READ MORE
Today the Dow Industrials ($INDU) PMO signal changed from a SELL to a BUY. The just retired SELL signal was only three days old because the daily PMO is currently very flat and close to its signal line. In this configuration the PMO is subject to frequent whipsaw signal changes.... READ MORE
TRANSPORTATION ISHARES FALL BELOW 50-DAY LINE... After hitting a new record earlier in the month, transportation stocks are being sold pretty hard today . Chart 1 shows the Transportation Average iShares (IYT) plunging 3% to the lowest level in nearly two months. The IYT has also fallen back below its 50-day... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 26, 2017 The small cap Russell 2000 index struggled, finishing down 0.56% on Wednesday's session, but it was another day of record high closes elsewhere as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all advanced. The FOMC provided its latest... READ MORE
.... Steady Uptrends for Six Homebuilder Stocks .... Flags, Throwbacks and Diamonds (plus DHI) .... Several Asia Markets Hit New Highs .... Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia ETFs Turn Up .... Steady Uptrends for Six Homebuilder Stocks CandleGlance charts are great for comparing price charts of related stocks. Chartists can enter up to 12 symbols in... READ MORE
A LOT IS RIDING ON DOLLAR DIRECTION... After hitting a 14-year high at the end of 2016, the U.S. Dollar Index has lost 8% during 2017. A lot of that slide came from disappointment in the so-called Trump reflation trade which was supposed to boost the U.S. economy,... READ MORE
Biotech stocks are leading the market with the Biotech iShares (IBB) and Biotech SPDR (XBI) hitting 52-week highs this week. Even though Illumina (ILMN) is lagging its benchmarks a bit, it is firming at support and could be poised to end its correction. The chart shows ILMN advancing from 120... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, July 25, 2017 Energy shares (XLE, +1.26%) received another boost when crude oil prices ($WTIC) surged on Tuesday to close at $47.89 per barrel (+3.34%), its highest close in nearly two months. While the crude oil spike extends a very nice rally off... READ MORE
** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** One of the features that I used frequently on the DecisionPoint.com website was Gallery View in the ChartTool. I was happy to learn that you can not... READ MORE
* The US versus the world * Two reasons why US equities are likely to underperform * What does the rest of the world say? I have been writing for some time that, notwithstanding the inevitable but unpredictable near-term correction, the US market is in good technical shape and likely to work its... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS MAY BE BOTTOMING... Bond yields are jumping today. Their chart patterns also suggest that yields may be bottoming. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year US Treasury YIeld ($TNX) jumping 6 basis points today to push it back above its (red) 200-day average. The trendline drawn over its May/July... READ MORE
.... Long-term Uptrends Resume (SPY) .... Back in the Saddle without News .... Are Rates Turning Up and Bonds Turning Down? ($TNX, TLT, IEF) .... Regional Banks Surge (plus USB, FITB, ZION) .... Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta Turn Up .... Long-term Uptrends Resume (SPY) Stocks resumed their long-term uptrends with solid advances over the last... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 24, 2017 It was another bifurcated session as the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 led while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 took a breather. That's been the theme of late and as long as the more aggressive indices lead,... READ MORE
Today the Dow Industrials ($INDU) lost its recent PMO BUY signal from 7/14 and has logged a PMO SELL signal on the DP Scoreboard. The chart is below. It looks like a short-term double-top in the thumbnail. Support is holding at 21500, but this recent PMO SELL signal and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, July 21, 2017 Friday was definitely a boring kind of day, but the bulls will generally take boring - especially after a nice push higher and a huge slate of earnings about to be released this week. While all of our major indices finished Friday on... READ MORE
Today the Nasdaq 100 Scoreboard turned completely green. Well, it lost the only red arrow it was clinging to on the intermediation-term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO). The equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) also triggered a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal. The charts are below for your review. With... READ MORE
Wyckoffians need to stay flexible and be willing to change their minds. It is an acquired skill to re-analyze charts with fresh eyes. We should practice this each day. Recently we studied the mid-capitalization and the small-capitalization indexes (click here for a link to the post). Here let’s re-analyze... READ MORE
Last week the market broke out of a month-long rounded top to new, all-time highs. This week there was a short snapback to the point of breakout, then on Wednesday it once again broke to new, all-time highs. Thursday and Friday it again pulled back to the point of breakout.... READ MORE
Remember the bygone advertisements from years past about hair replacement? The gentleman stares into the camera and says “I’m not just the president of the Men’s Hair Club, but I am also a client.” Our ChartPack deserves a similar endorsement. “I’m not just the creator of the... READ MORE
No new changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards although I happen to know there is an intermediate-term PMO BUY signal waiting in the wings on the NDX. That signal will not go final until after Friday's trading. Utilities SPDR (XLU) and the equal-weight Utilities ETF (RYU) both garnered IT... READ MORE
Biotechnology stocks ($DJUSBT) are among the best performing stocks since the beginning of June with an approximate 16% gain over the past seven weeks. It's not unusual for biotechs to remain on a tear for an extended period of time so pullbacks should be considered for entry. The... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the constituents of the Materials sector (XLB). The picture shows a fairly evenly distributed pattern with no real stocks standing out, maybe with the exception of MOS as it has the longest tail of all stocks on the graph while being at the lowest... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 19, 2017 Energy (XLE, +1.46%) and materials (XLB, +0.96%) led the major U.S. indices to all-time highs on Wednesday, with particular strength in coal ($DJUSCL) and renewable energy ($DWCREE), which rose 6.36% and 3.08%, respectively. The former's strength... READ MORE
* What is a confidence indicator? * Credit Spreads to the rescue * Equity market spreads * Growth versus Value * Small caps: Are we there yet? Washington may be suffering from acute dysfunction but Wall Street doesn’t seem to care, or perhaps knows something that we mere mortals do not. Failure to agree... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES... One of my recent messages explained that a weak dollar was contributing to money flows into foreign markets. That's because American investors get the dual benefit of rising foreign currencies as well as stocks. That's been especially true in emerging... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, July 18, 2017 It was a rough June for technology stocks and, more specifically, internet stocks ($DJUSNS), but they've both rebounding during an exceptional July. It appears that traders have re-entered this space in anticipation of very strong upcoming quarterly earnings reports. It'... READ MORE
The above Relative Rotation Graph holds the main commodity groups (BCOM family) and uses the Bloomberg Commodity Index as the benchmark. The opposite directions in the rotations of Industrial metals ($BCOMINTR) and Precious metals ($BCOMPRTR) stand out for me. As they are both on the right-hand side of the graph... READ MORE
No new changes to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, although if you didn't read about it last Friday, we did see FOUR new PMO BUY signals on all four indexes. The only "red" on the Scoreboards are on the IT PMO signals which are found on... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 17, 2017 It seems that every major U.S. index is taking its turn at all-time highs and on Monday small cap stocks stepped up to the plate, closing at 1431.60, its highest close ever. It's interesting because it did so on... READ MORE
I will attempt to show that high sigma is a much more frequent event than modern finance thinks it is. A few examples using the Dow Industrials back to 1885 on a daily basis are shown. Each begins with determining a look-back period to determine the average daily return and... READ MORE
CHINESE ECONOMY EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS... China's economy grew by 6.9% during the second quarter which exceeded market expectations. That's one of the explanations behind today's jump in industrial metals like copper, iron ore, and zinc. Mining stocks that produce those commodities are also having... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, July 14, 2017 JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial (PNC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were a formidable sample of bank stocks ($DJUSBK) reporting earnings last Friday and it was set up to be a very interesting trading day - to see if the huge run up... READ MORE