Market Recap for Friday, July 14, 2017 JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial (PNC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were a formidable sample of bank stocks ($DJUSBK) reporting earnings last Friday and it was set up to be a very interesting trading day - to see if the huge run up... READ MORE
When money begins rotating to defense in a big way, I look for topping patterns in the market. But when we're in the midst of a full-fledged bull market - as we are now - I'd much rather search for stocks in bullish continuation patterns. That... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS DROP ON LACK OF INFLATION ... June's CPI report showed no change from the previous month, reflecting the absence of inflation. Its annual gain of 1.6% was the smallest since last October. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI saw a modest monthly bounce of 0.... READ MORE
Q2 Earnings Season is underway with 4 of the nations largest banks reporting their numbers Friday and thousands of companies getting ready to report over the next few weeks. Earnings season brings with it both the highs and lows of trading. We'll see companies that beat expectations and... READ MORE
As a stock market historian, if there's one thing that really annoys me, it's the talking heads saying to "go away in May". While the May through October period is clearly less bullish than its November through April counterpart, there are loads of reasons... READ MORE
Rounded top, schmounded top. This week the market couldn't have cared less as it broke through to new, all-time highs. The headline regarding the dollar is not exactly news, but the dollar is getting particularly weak. More on that below. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment... READ MORE
Regular readers have been following the epic saga dating back to 2011, when Dr. Hank Pruden published his Point and Figure (PnF) count for the new bull market. This count projected to a range of 17,600 to 19,200 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU). When this objective... READ MORE
There were four new Short-Term PMO BUY signals generated on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. The new signal summary is below as well as the charts for your review. Have a great weekend! Helpful DecisionPoint Links: DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery Trend Models Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) On Balance... READ MORE
On Fridays during the MarketWatchers LIVE show (12:00p - 1:30p EST), I do a regular segment that checks what weekly sentiment charts are telling us. Three of the best sentiment charts from DecisionPoint are the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment poll, the National Association of Active... READ MORE
Ninety percent (90%) of Americans believe that they are above average drivers. Multiple studies have corroborated this impossibility over the years. I’m certain that the equivalent surveys of American investors would yield a similar fanciful number. It reminds me of Garrison Keillor’s radio show featuring Lake Wobegon — the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS DROP ON LACK OF INFLATION ... June's CPI report showed no change from the previous month, reflecting the absence of inflation. Its annual gain of 1.6% was the smallest since last October. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI saw a modest monthly bounce of 0.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, July 13, 2017 Financials (XLF, +0.60%) rebounded to lead the market action on Thursday, in anticipation of large bank earnings scheduled to be reported this morning. The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index ($DJUSBK) remains in a strong technical pattern, but has room to the... READ MORE
No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. They all look the same which might be a little confusing given the bifurcated market we have witnessed over the past few weeks. While most indexes are testing all-time highs, the NDX needs more help and today it couldn't get past the... READ MORE
CANADA RATE HIKE BOOSTS THE LOONIE... Canada warned that it was about to hike rates, and did it yesterday for the first time in seven years. The Bank of Canada raised its short-term policy rate 25 basis points to 0.75%. That's still below the rate of 1.... READ MORE
1. Some Global Equity Markets Getting Lift-off Again 2. US equities trying to follow the global lead 3. Relative trends favor emerging and Europe 4. Technology poised to move higher In terms of price, global equities have been in a corrective mode since late May, but now appear to be... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 13, 2017 Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided the Fed's semiannual monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday morning, just prior to the opening of the stock market and both the bond market and stock market loved what it heard. The... READ MORE
Yet again, more whipsaw on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is highly sensitive given that it is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers. However, the main problem we have is consolidation. Price hit all-time highs, but has continued to meander sideways. This will draw the EMAs together and... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR MAY GIVE FED A HAND... Bonds and stocks are reacting very positively to written comments by Janet Yellen before Congress today. Her comments are being interpreted as being more dovish than anticipated, owing mainly to Fed concerns about persistently low inflation. It's hard for the Fed... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, July 11, 2017 Only two of nine sectors - energy (XLE, +0.54%) and technology (XLK, +0.22%) were able to finish in positive territory on Tuesday. Given that overall weakness, it was interesting to see that only one of our major indices lost ground (S&... READ MORE
Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles. Why on Earth would I do this? Primarily for two reasons. One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles. Two is that my articles... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the relative rotation, on a weekly basis, for the G10 currencies using the USD as the base. For a better understanding of how to use RRGs to monitor currency rotation please refer to this blog article on the subject. Looking at the RRG above... READ MORE
No new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, but we did see three new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signals generate on three different sectors. Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples. It's odd to see both Consumer Staples and Discretionary hitting bearish signals, but I think that is... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 10, 2017 The NASDAQ and S&P 500 rallied on Monday, posting gains of 0.38% and 0.09%, respectively. The small cap Russell 2000 index was easily the worst performing major index, losing 0.52% on the session. Despite the weakness, the Russell... READ MORE
* The Long-term indicators * Gold in Euro and Yen looking sick * Dollar based Gold completes head and shoulders top gold shares not quite there yet * Silver showing signs of tiredness * Stocks breaking out against Gold * The silver lining for Gold Several articles I have written in the last few weeks have... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, July 7, 2017 Dow Jones component McDonalds Corp (MCD) jumped more than 2% on Friday, extending an already strong 2017 with another all-time high closing breakout. It helped to lead a strong restaurants & bars ($DJUSRU) industry, which rose 1.26%. That, in turn, helped the... READ MORE
Higher treasury yields ($TNX) are feared in some parts of the stock market like utilities (XLU), but not in others - especially in banking ($DJUSBK) and life insurance ($DJUSIL) where profits tend to soar during periods of rising interest rates. The recent spike in the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX)... READ MORE
The Wyckoff Method for constructing Trendlines is unique. They inform our analysis and support sharper tactics. Trendlines and Trend Channels bring a chart to life. We have used significant amounts of ink drawing and discussing trendlines in this column (below are links to prior columns on Trendline construction and analysis)... READ MORE
During a holiday week we don't expect much action, and this week was no exception. The market has been grinding away in a narrow range since the beginning of June, and a rounded top has formed. A rounded top is bearish, but in this persistent bull market it... READ MORE
AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE USUALLY WEAKER MONTHS... I've made references to seasonal patterns in some recent messages. I'm referring mainly to monthly seasonal patterns. Chart 1 plots the percent of months the S&P 500 closed higher over the last ten years. Average percentage gains... READ MORE
We have three new signals to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards and none of them are good. Momentum was already waning with PMO SELL signals coming in late June, but now we are seeing the destruction of upward price trends. Admittedly, the Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is based on 5/... READ MORE
So, how did you stack up the equities of the Dow 30 based on Money Flow in Action Practice #17? The first question you should have asked yourself is “what is my personal investing timeframe?” Clearly, a day trader would not analyze money flow the same as a position trader... READ MORE
.... Evidence for Market Correction Builds .... Seasonality for Stocks versus Bonds .... High-Low Percent Turns Negative .... Selling Pressure Ticks Up .... Correction Could be Starting for SPY .... QQQ Extends Correction .... Small-caps Continue to Struggle .... Five of Nine Sectors in Corrective Mode .... XLY and XLK Lead Correction .... Staples and Utilities Fall Hard .... Finance and... READ MORE
Special Announcement Greg Schnell and I will be co-hosting the latest StockCharts Outlook webinar tomorrow, July 8th at 11am EST. Please join us as we discuss what went right and wrong during the first half of 2017 and where we see the market heading in the second half. Have we... READ MORE
GERMAN 10-YEAR BUND YIELD REACHES 18-MONTH HIGH ... The jump in European bond yields that started last Tuesday is continuing. A weak French auction of 30-year bonds caused bond prices in Europe to fall sharply which pushed yields higher. Ten-Year French and German yields jumped 10 and 9 basis points respectively.... READ MORE
Bull markets are comprised of rotating sector strength and bullishness. On a relative basis, healthcare (XLV) was a laggard during 2009 and 2010 before outperforming in a major way from 2011 through 2015. The sector saw relative weakness for nearly two years beginning in mid-2015, but has now resumed its... READ MORE
.... Home Builders Continue to March Higher .... Customize your CandleGlance Charts .... Caesarstone and USG May Play Catchup .... High and Tight Flags for Two Biotechs (AMGN, GILD) .... 3 Cyber Security Stocks (PANW, FTNT, PFPT) .... Three Charts for the Road (DOX, WEN, VLKAY) The Home Construction iShares (ITB) is one of the strongest... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 5, 2017 Crude oil prices ($WTIC) tumbled on Wednesday and that put an abrupt end to the recent strength in energy shares (XLE, -2.03%). It's also one reason why I need to see the XLE downtrend end before I'd grow... READ MORE
The almost vertical tails on the above Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors indicates a very clear (relative) momentum rotation, sending some sectors from North to South and vice versa. The two most obvious tails on the RRG are for XLE, far away on the left while sharply hooking upward,... READ MORE
It happened so fast that I missed it on Monday. Both the SPX and OEX generated ST Trend Model Neutral signals Friday and Monday, but today those signals have already bitten the dust as new ST Trend Model BUY signals came back to roost on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Those aren&... READ MORE
Goldman Sachs (GS) appears to be ending its correction as it bounces off the rising 200-day moving average. The chart shows GS hitting a 52-week high in March and then declining into June. I consider this a correction because the stock was entitled to a pullback after a massive advance... READ MORE