Higher treasury yields ($TNX) are feared in some parts of the stock market like utilities (XLU), but not in others - especially in banking ($DJUSBK) and life insurance ($DJUSIL) where profits tend to soar during periods of rising interest rates. The recent spike in the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX)... READ MORE
The Wyckoff Method for constructing Trendlines is unique. They inform our analysis and support sharper tactics. Trendlines and Trend Channels bring a chart to life. We have used significant amounts of ink drawing and discussing trendlines in this column (below are links to prior columns on Trendline construction and analysis)... READ MORE
During a holiday week we don't expect much action, and this week was no exception. The market has been grinding away in a narrow range since the beginning of June, and a rounded top has formed. A rounded top is bearish, but in this persistent bull market it... READ MORE
AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE USUALLY WEAKER MONTHS... I've made references to seasonal patterns in some recent messages. I'm referring mainly to monthly seasonal patterns. Chart 1 plots the percent of months the S&P 500 closed higher over the last ten years. Average percentage gains... READ MORE
We have three new signals to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards and none of them are good. Momentum was already waning with PMO SELL signals coming in late June, but now we are seeing the destruction of upward price trends. Admittedly, the Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is based on 5/... READ MORE
So, how did you stack up the equities of the Dow 30 based on Money Flow in Action Practice #17? The first question you should have asked yourself is “what is my personal investing timeframe?” Clearly, a day trader would not analyze money flow the same as a position trader... READ MORE
.... Evidence for Market Correction Builds .... Seasonality for Stocks versus Bonds .... High-Low Percent Turns Negative .... Selling Pressure Ticks Up .... Correction Could be Starting for SPY .... QQQ Extends Correction .... Small-caps Continue to Struggle .... Five of Nine Sectors in Corrective Mode .... XLY and XLK Lead Correction .... Staples and Utilities Fall Hard .... Finance and... READ MORE
Special Announcement Greg Schnell and I will be co-hosting the latest StockCharts Outlook webinar tomorrow, July 8th at 11am EST. Please join us as we discuss what went right and wrong during the first half of 2017 and where we see the market heading in the second half. Have we... READ MORE
GERMAN 10-YEAR BUND YIELD REACHES 18-MONTH HIGH ... The jump in European bond yields that started last Tuesday is continuing. A weak French auction of 30-year bonds caused bond prices in Europe to fall sharply which pushed yields higher. Ten-Year French and German yields jumped 10 and 9 basis points respectively.... READ MORE
Bull markets are comprised of rotating sector strength and bullishness. On a relative basis, healthcare (XLV) was a laggard during 2009 and 2010 before outperforming in a major way from 2011 through 2015. The sector saw relative weakness for nearly two years beginning in mid-2015, but has now resumed its... READ MORE
.... Home Builders Continue to March Higher .... Customize your CandleGlance Charts .... Caesarstone and USG May Play Catchup .... High and Tight Flags for Two Biotechs (AMGN, GILD) .... 3 Cyber Security Stocks (PANW, FTNT, PFPT) .... Three Charts for the Road (DOX, WEN, VLKAY) The Home Construction iShares (ITB) is one of the strongest... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 5, 2017 Crude oil prices ($WTIC) tumbled on Wednesday and that put an abrupt end to the recent strength in energy shares (XLE, -2.03%). It's also one reason why I need to see the XLE downtrend end before I'd grow... READ MORE
The almost vertical tails on the above Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors indicates a very clear (relative) momentum rotation, sending some sectors from North to South and vice versa. The two most obvious tails on the RRG are for XLE, far away on the left while sharply hooking upward,... READ MORE
It happened so fast that I missed it on Monday. Both the SPX and OEX generated ST Trend Model Neutral signals Friday and Monday, but today those signals have already bitten the dust as new ST Trend Model BUY signals came back to roost on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Those aren&... READ MORE
Goldman Sachs (GS) appears to be ending its correction as it bounces off the rising 200-day moving average. The chart shows GS hitting a 52-week high in March and then declining into June. I consider this a correction because the stock was entitled to a pullback after a massive advance... READ MORE
Here is the July video recording for Market Round Up Live 2017-07-05. 2017-07-05 08.02 @Test Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-07-05 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring... READ MORE
After 20 years in the money management business I saw these mistakes all too often.Fortunately, this time, I’m not reciting the mistakes I have made in the past.I certainly made some, but not these.I’ll share those another time. 1 – The biggest and probably most common... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 3, 2017 Energy (XLE, +1.93%) had another strong day as crude oil ($WTIC) surged above $47 per barrel and tested its 50 day SMA for the first time in over a month. The XLE has overhead resistance issues using multiple time frames, the first... READ MORE
* Watch those small caps * Dr. Copper about to get better? * Wheat enters a primary bull market * The yen is getting close to a downside breakout * Gold is close to a breakdown Watch those small caps Chart 1 features the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the IWM, together with its relative strength... READ MORE
The Energy SPDR (XLE) continues to firm after an extended decline and RSI could trigger a bullish signal this week. On the price chart, XLE shows signs of stabilization with an outside reversal five weeks ago and an inside week last week. Notice that XLE is firming near support from... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 30, 2017 We once again witnessed market bifurcation with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising slightly, while the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 finished with absolute and relative weakness. The Dow Jones received a big lift from Nike (NKE), which... READ MORE
The Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index ($DJUSSC) is an extremely volatile index. When this index is trending higher, there aren't too many better places to be invested. But when the fire goes out, you want to run, not walk, for the exits. So where are we now,... READ MORE
It's generally not a great idea to wait until after a stock or index breaks out to consider short-term trades. It would seem somewhat obvious to instead plan for those breakouts by watching patterns develop and keeping an eye on volume. So let's do exactly that... READ MORE
June has been a tedious month for the market with SPY being confined mostly within a three point range. I can't help noticing the rounded shape of June's price activity, which makes me think we may be seeing a rounded top leading to a period of... READ MORE
The chart below shows the seasonal tendency for the S&P 500 over the last twenty years (1998 to 2017). The number at the top of each bar shows the percentage of months the S&P 500 advanced for that particular month, while the number at the bottom... READ MORE
Price trends may be up, but momentum is clearly down in the in the short and intermediate terms. The NDX escaped a weekly PMO negative crossover SELL signal by only a small amount and that is because techs had a great run over the past month or so. FYI -... READ MORE
The U.S. Dollar has had a bad six months. And things got even worse this week. The driving force between currencies is the relationship between global interest rates. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains higher than foreign developed yields. The problem is that the difference between them is narrowing. The... READ MORE
The market moved into a rare funk last week as traders decided in unison to take profits, especially in the tech heavy NASDAQ. This is quite understandable with all three of the major indexes hitting record levels during the month of June. There are various theories as to why stocks... READ MORE
Have any of you ever found yourselves so overly focused on your individual positions that you are missing the market’s essential big picture? For profitable investing, maintaining a birds-eye view is imperative. This is what asset allocation is all about, and from the academics, we know that this provides... READ MORE
NARROWING SPREAD BETWEEN GLOBAL YIELDS HURTS THE DOLLAR... The U.S. Dollar has had a bad six months. And things got even worse this week. The driving force between currencies is the relationship between global interest rates. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains higher than foreign developed yields. The problem is... READ MORE
.... Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... SPY has Yet to Start a Correction .... Small-caps Continue to Drift Higher .... QQQ Forms Second Big Engulfing Pattern .... S&P 500 Enters Weakest 3-month Stretch .... So Does 10-yr Yield! .... 10-yr T-Yield Bounces within Downtrend .... TLT Forms Big Bearish Engulfing, but... .... T-Bonds and the Dollar... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 29, 2017 That's exactly what it's felt like recently. Financials (XLF) have easily been the best performing sector over the past week, rising nearly 3%, while energy (XLE) is the only other sector in positive territory as crude oil ($WTIC) has... READ MORE
Today brought a plethora of new DecisionPoint timing signals...all bearish. As far as the DP Scoreboards are concerned, the Dow initiated a PMO SELL signal on the daily chart today. This puts all four indexes on PMO SELL signals. I've included the daily chart of the Dow... READ MORE
TECH SECTOR UNDERCUTS 50-DAY AVERAGE...STRESS TEST BOOSTS BANKS... Everyone in the media is suddenly talking about a rotation out of technology-dominated growth stocks into value stocks led by financials, healthcare, and (to a lesser extent) energy shares. We wrote about that on the day it started (June 9): "... READ MORE
The stubbornness of treasury buyers has kept a lid on treasury yields and, as a result, banks ($DJUSBK) have struggled to determine which direction they should move. Well.....this morning's reaction to an upwardly-revised GDP number (TNX up 7 basis points to 2.29% at last check) for... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, June 28, 2017 All of our major indices finished higher on Wednesday with the small cap Russell 2000 and tech-laden NASDAQ indices leading the charge with 1.55% and 1.43% gains, respectively. We saw solid participation across the board, however, with the Dow Jones ending... READ MORE
.... The Great Rate Debate .... Correlations Do Not Reflect Magnitude .... BB&T Takes Two Steps Forward and One Step Backward .... Fifth Third, Huntington and PNC Financial .... Three Steel Stocks on the Move .... The Great Rate Debate Are yields rising, falling or flat? This depends, as always, on your timeframe. Chartists... READ MORE
I love to use the Advanced Scanning Workbench and find it absolutely invaluable in my investment mining process. Every other Monday, I review the PMO scan that I've chosen for the day and use the results to create my "Monday Set-Ups" symbol list. "Monday Set-Ups&... READ MORE
TODAY IT'S THE BRITS TURNING HAWKISH... Yesterday it was hawkish comments from Mario Draghi that pushed eurozone bond yields sharply higher, and the rest of the world with them. Today it's hawkish comments by Mark Carney that the Brits may have to raise rates soon. Rising... READ MORE
Dentsply International (XRAY) has a large cup-with-handle pattern forming over the last twelve months and the stock is on the verge of breaking rim resistance. Popularized by William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily, the cup-with-handle is a bullish continuation pattern. This means it forms as a consolidation after... READ MORE