Oclaro Inc (OCLR) is printing several warning signals as it appears to be topping after a stellar advance. OCLR has nearly quadrupled since the beginning of 2016, but it's difficult to ignore the heavy volume reversal last week - especially when you consider that a negative divergence has... READ MORE
One of the sentiment indicators we follow is the Exposure Index (EI) for the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM). It is probably somewhat better than other measures of sentiment because it shows how professionals have actually deployed their assets. The far right of the chart shows a recent... READ MORE
Let’s do an integration case study. We have spent much time on two robust processes; Point and Figure analysis and Vertical Bar Chart analysis. Recently Relative Strength studies have been added to the mix. A stool has three legs, any fewer would make it unstable. Our Wyckoff stool has... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 25-Feb) ----- Key Sectors and Indexes Hit New Highs The stock marked notched more new highs this week as the major index ETFs hit new highs during the week (SPY, DIA, IWM, IJR, MDY, QQQ). February is shaping up to... READ MORE
In previous blogs, I’ve sermonized that Asset Allocation is the highest leveraged activity that investors can undertake. We produced an entire two-disc DVD on how to execute what we call our “Methodology Allocation” process which maximizes the benefits of a CORE & EXPLORE approach and then optimizes it by... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, February 23, 2017 The action on Thursday was not bullish at all. Yes, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose again with the Dow setting another all-time high. Great action, right? Wrong. The more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both fell again by .43%... READ MORE
.... Introduction .... Testing During Two Bear Markets .... Universe, Timeframe and Data .... Using S&P 500 as a Market Filter .... Trend-Timing System using the PPO .... Scaling into the S&P 500 .... Momentum-Rotation System using Rate-of-Change .... Testing Different Momentum Periods .... Riding the Roller Coaster .... Conclusions .... Scan Code Introduction I presented a... READ MORE
Eli Lilly (LLY) printed an exhaustion gap in November on massive volume, marking a significant bottom and over recent trading days broke a downtrend line that spanned 18 months of action. Based on this combination and improving momentum, it certainly appears that LLY has seen its worst and has begun... READ MORE
I noticed on the StockCharts.com homepage "symbol cloud" that readers were downloading this chart more than Amazon and the SPX (based on size of the font). I decided to take a look. Wow! TSLA dropped more than 6.4% today! There are some real problems with this... READ MORE
* How to spot a secular reversal * Not all maturities are created equal * The near-term technical picture How to spot a secular reversal A secular, or very long-term, trend is one that exists over many business cycles or what are usually called primary bull and bear markets. They vary in length... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS START TO WEAKEN ... A number of short-term caution signals are showing up for stocks which might be hinting that the current rally is due for a pullback. Some of those caution signals are coming from relationships between the three Dow Averages. Let's start with the transports. Chart... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, February 22, 2017 Utilities (XLU, +0.42%) showed relative strength again on Wednesday, leading the charge on an otherwise bifurcated kinda day. The Dow Jones was able to finish the session with a gain, but the benchmark S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were... READ MORE
The 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) is consolidating within a long-term downtrend and this favors a bearish resolution to the current pattern. TLT fell sharply from July to November and broke through its 40-week EMA. The ETF is currently consolidating below the falling EMA and a consolidation within a downtrend... READ MORE
U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW HIGHS... Add housing stocks to parts of the stock market that still offer value and are attracting new money. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Home Construction iShares (ITB) climbing today to the highest level in nearly a decade. That's following... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, February 21, 2017 Our major indices saw another solid day of gains with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 all breaking out to all-time highs once again. All nine sectors advanced and small caps led on a relative basis.... READ MORE
.... Oil Bounces within Corrective Pattern .... Measuring the Correlation between Oil and Energy ETF .... XLE, XES and XOP Correct Along with Oil .... Focus on Gold for Precious Metals ETFs .... Watching the Wedge and Fib Retracement in Gold .... 14 Bullish Stock Charts .... Oil Bounces within Corrective Pattern I will start off today... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, February 17, 2017 Consumer staples (XLP, +0.50%) led the market action on Friday as personal products ($DJUSCM) jumped 3.39%. Brewers ($DJUSDB) continued their recent surge and now appear to have clearly broken their downtrend that began in October. Take a look: The trendline break... READ MORE
In 1987 a book was written, entitled “The Great Depression of 1990,” by Dr. Ravi Batra, an SMU professor of economics. Sadly, I bought and read that book back then. Batra was claimed as one of the great theorists in the world and ranked third in a group of 46... READ MORE
While the 200EMA (exponential moving average) smooths daily prices over a long period of time and shows us the trend within that time frame, it also acts as a moving base line of price. As we watch daily prices depart from the 200EMA, we can get a sense of how... READ MORE
Mondelez International (MDLZ) had a rough week, tumbling over 5.5% after Kraft Heinz (KHC) made a bid for Unilever (UL). That suggested to many investors that the likelihood of a MDLZ acquisition was significantly reduced and the stock was priced lower accordingly. The technical pattern on MDLZ remains quite... READ MORE
* The Dollar Index -- primary trend * The Dollar Index viewed from the short-term trend * The euro * The yen * The Canadian dollar * Emerging market currencies Expectations were high for the US Dollar ($USD) following the election and indeed, the currency did rally for a while. However, the trend for most of... READ MORE
The market has been experiencing an almost vertical rally over the past few weeks, but it has cooled over the past two days. The steep rising trend pushed our short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) into highly overbought territory. With Thursday and Friday's cooling off period, they have peaked.... READ MORE
About a month ago, I wrote a ChartWatchers article detailing the bullish historical tendencies of retailers during the months of February, March and April. In particular, apparel retailers ($DJUSRA) have shown tremendous bullishness during the months of February, March and April. In addition, the DJUSRA was approaching a key price... READ MORE
It is time to circle back and update our studies of the US Treasury Bond market. On October 7, 2016, we did a Wyckoffian analysis of Treasury Bonds as they appeared to be at a critical juncture. Take a few minutes now and go back to that post (click here... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 18-Feb) ----- Programming Note: The Art's Charts Chartlist has been updated with 30 annotated charts covering the industry group ETFs. The outline above is for the video and I cover many of these industry group ETFs in the... READ MORE
In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/SPX ratio (top of chart)... READ MORE
I made my case to EarningsBeats members this past Wednesday just before we started to see a bit of selling. Here are the highlights: 1-The VIX is up by almost 9% today as it tests its 50 day moving average from the downside even though the market is higher. This... READ MORE
Just like potato salad in the fridge, support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 have a shelf life and become stale over time. The value of the S&P 500 is based on the price of its individual component stocks. Support and resistance levels for the... READ MORE
After seventeen years writing an investment column for USA Today, Matt Krantz is joining a money management firm and leaving us with the top lesson he’s learned in all those years. Coincidentally and nearly simultaneously, I ran into two former students at a local Starbucks who had attended my... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE SPDR TURNS UP... In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, February 16, 2017 U.S. indices finished in bifurcated fashion on Thursday as the Dow Jones logged gains, the S&P 500 finished flat and the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both finished with minor losses. We could see some additional weakness in coming days based... READ MORE
Stericycle (SRCL) has been under rather intense selling pressure over the past 16 months, losing half its market cap. The waste management company disappointed Wall Street on several occasions and we've seen major gap downs on heavy volume three times over those 16 months. The stock seems to... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, February 15, 2017 Healthcare (XLV, +1.08%) resumed its leadership role but relative performance in this sector has been quite weak since the summer. Below is a chart that shows a ratio of the XLV to the S&P 500. If you've been... READ MORE
.... Small-caps Join the New High Parade .... Housing and Retail Come to Life .... Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary Sector Breaks Out .... Five Housing Stocks to Watch (DHI, FBHS, KBH, SKY, TOL) .... Commercial Metals Resumes Bigger Uptrend .... United Airlines Challenges Flag Resistance .... Cornerstone OnDemand Consolidates Above 200-day EMA .... Itron Ends Correction with Breakout .... AbbVie... READ MORE
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has traded quite choppy over the last 12 months, but I think the bigger trend is up and the recent wedge breakout is bullish. First, notice that WBA broke above a major resistance zone with the November-December surge. This move forged a 52-week high and set... READ MORE
I'll return tomorrow morning with my regular Trading Places article with all the normal features. Today I simply want to point out two component stocks in the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) that look very bullish to me. The first is Costco (COST). Basing patterns that finally breakout can lead... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint LIVE webinars on Wednesday and Fridays at 7:00pm EST are news programs. In just 30 minutes, I go over the current DecisionPoint Scoreboards, cover daily/weekly/monthly charts of major large- and small-cap indexes, review indicators and finish with analysis of the "Big Four" --... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE... Previous messages have described Treasury bond yields as consolidating within a major uptrend since mid-December . Today's jump in yields supports that view. In testimomy before Congress today, Janet Yellen warned about the danger of the Fed falling behind the inflation curve. That more... READ MORE
TLT Forms Bearish Continuation Pattern There is not much change in the broad market environment. The long-term trends are up, but SPY and QQQ are looking extended and ripe for a rest. IJR already got its rest and broke out on Friday to end its corrective period. This pits large-caps... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, February 13, 2017 Recent leadership from financials (XLF, +1.14%) and industrials (XLI, +1.00%) appears to be resuming as these two groups led the benchmark S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs on Monday. The last week has been very strong for U.S.... READ MORE