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Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness - QQQ Hits New High - KRE Extends Correction - Watching the Wedge in IEF
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness .... Percent above 200-day EMA Remains Strong .... SPY Follows Through on Inside Day Reversal .... QQQ Leads as IWM Challenges High .... Housing and Retail are Still Lagging .... Regional Banks Extend Correction .... Treasuries Surge within Corrective Patterns .... //// ....
Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness
Stocks fell sharply in early September...
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Tech stocks dominate sector rotation but broader market at risk
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph below holds the components of the Dow Jones Industrials index vis-à-vis the $INDU index.
The one observation that immediately stands out to me is the domination of technology stocks inside the leading quadrant. AAPL, MSFT, INTC, and CSCO are all positioned well inside the top right-hand...
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Retail SPDR Hits Moment-of-truth
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Retail SPDR (XRT) is at its moment-of-truth with a long-term bullish pattern battling a short-term bearish pattern. Long-term, the ETF formed a double bottom and broke resistance with the July surge. This breakout zone turned into support with a successful test in early August. After a sharp decline from...
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The Quiet Before The Storm?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Major stock averages are at major support
* Stocks or bonds?
* What about the rest of the world?
* Inflation/deflation inter-asset relationships
The media seems to be fixated with potential central bank action this week but the markets are barely able to keep their eyes open. This is becoming one-big-yawn! I...
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This Relative Ratio Suggests U.S. Weakness Ahead
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Special Note
I continue to move into ChartCon 2016 mode, so bear with me as all of us here at StockCharts.com prepare to descend upon California. My travel day is tomorrow so I will not likely post at all. Of course, there's always the possibility of a...
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Financials iShares Bounces off Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Chartists looking to track the finance sector can turn to the iShares Financials ETF (IYF). Note that the Finance SPDR (XLF) is in the midst of a metamorphosis this week so chartists can consider watching IYF for clues on the finance sector this week. IYF is in a long-term uptrend...
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U.S. Equities Stumble on Friday As Banks Test 50 Day
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Special Note
My blog articles will be brief the next two days as I prepare for ChartCon 2016. I will be traveling on Wednesday so there will be no article that day. While in California, my blog schedule will not be set so I'll simply post when I...
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Oversold Bounce Possible?
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Before we ask if an oversold bounce is possible, we should ask if the market is oversold. Looking at the chart below, the PMO is just above the zero line. While that level proved to be oversold after the Brexit vote at the end of June, a more typical oversold...
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Treasury Yields Continue to Climb, Investment Service Stocks Show New Leadership
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
I've been writing about the upturn in global bond yields, which has boosted Treasury bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield trading above 1.70% in today's trading. Foreign yields are bouncing as well. One of the side-effects of rising bond yields is the...
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Sitting on the Edge
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
September has a reputation of being a difficult month for traders. So far it is living up to its reputation.
The S&P started out the month pretty much like it had the prior many weeks; going nowhere. And on September 8 the S&P remained within easy...
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How ChartCon 2016 Will Help You Make Better Investing Decisions
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
Markets are pulling back from their highs on increasing volume. You can see the weekly and daily charts with my annotations by clicking here. But even in this declining market environment, there are always possibilities. My "Strengthening Strength" scan (included at the bottom of the...
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Combining Seasonality And Strong Technical Patterns
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
This is the final ChartWatchers newsletter before all of us here at StockCharts.com descend upon Northern California to produce what I believe will be one of the most educational online financial conferences of our time. Leading technical experts will be divulging their best kept secrets to hopefully add weapons...
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An AAPL for Your Thoughts
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
So many important events happen in the fall of the year; school starts, football season begins, new television programming is introduced. But, for many, the momentous event is the reveal of the latest Apple iPhone. This year the pundits had a collective yawn over the new features of the iPhone...
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Here Are The Four Technology Industry Groups You Don't Want To Ignore
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
After technology stocks (XLK, +2.70%) clubbed the energy sector (XLE, -2.64%) last week, the former group is now the leading sector over the past six months, widely outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index. Within technology, there are four industry groups that have been outperforming the benchmark...
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Tech Sector Breaks Away from the Pack
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is the tech sector, and then there is the rest of the stock market. It is not that bad, but the tech sector is clearly head and shoulders above the other sectors. This is true with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the EW Technology ETF (RYT). The first SharpChart...
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Thrust/Trend Model Chart Warns of More Decline
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
A comment on a recent DecisionPoint Alert blog article prompted me to review the Thrust/Trend Model indicator chart. During Friday's webinar I brushed over it as time was quickly disappearing. I promised to go over it in more detail in my ChartWatchers article. So here we go!...
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Tech Leads and Establishes Key Watch Level - Cisco Turns Indecisive - Biotechs Perk Up - 3 Big Biotechs to Watch
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Technology ETFs Establish Key Levels to Watch .... Semis and Networking ETFs Follow Suit .... Cisco Forms a Pair of Inside Days .... A Big Counter-Trend Advance in XLE .... Crude Remains in Long-term Downtrend .... Biotech SPDR Holds its Breakout .... Three Big Biotechs to Watch .... //// ....
Technology ETFs Establish Key Levels to Watch
The technology...
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Charts I'm Stalking Action Practice #2
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
This blog is in the new bi-weekly format where we’ll first analyze the charts I presented to you in my September 2, 2016 blog. After that, we’ll present new charts.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/journal/2016/09/charts-im-stalking-action-practice.html
As I wrote previously, this “Action Practice” only benefits...
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The Sales Pitches of Wall Street
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
I am on record for saying that academic finance is the marketing department for retail (sell side) Wall Street. Note: Sell side is the secondary market where you buy and sell stocks; versus the primary market where capital is raised. Over the years (notice I use that phrase often?) I...
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Technology Shares Lead Strong U.S. Rally
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, September 15, 2016
There was plenty of good news to go around on Thursday, which was nice because the bulls have been beaten up a little bit of late. All of our major indices finished with solid gains and all nine sectors advanced. Technology (XLK, +1....
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Why I'm a ChartWatcher
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
It happened all in the same day. I was talking to my dad, Carl Swenlin exclaiming how I think I'm "chart pattern crazy". Then, I received a chart via email from one of my "DecisionPoint Report" webinar viewers. He actually sent the chart to...
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Live Nation Chart Is Like Music To My Ears
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is a $5 billion consumer discretionary company that in late July reported excellent quarterly results and gapped higher to touch the 28.00 level. The stock's all-time high came in October 2015 just beneath 30.00. It's consolidating just above its rising...
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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST INVESTMENT SERVICE STOCKS AND LIFE INSURERS -- E*TRADE ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- AMERITRADE MAY BE NEXT -- PRUDENTIAL ALSO BREAKS OUT AS METLIFE CLEARS 200-DAY LINE -- STAPLES AND UTILITIES ARE OVERSOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... I've been writing about the upturn in global bond yields, which has boosted Treasury bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield trading above 1.70% in today's trading. Foreign yields are bouncing as well. One of the side-effects of...
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Let's Get Ready To Rum.....Errrr, Gamble!!!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Market and sector performance was bifurcated on Wednesday with the NASDAQ performing much better on a relative basis, gaining 0.36% on the session. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all finished with fractional losses. Leading the NASDAQ were...
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Putting the Pullback into Perspective - Revisiting the Taper Tantrum - XES and XLE Go Separate Ways - Radware Breaks Free
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Revisiting the 2013 Taper Tantrum .... Stocks Entitled to a Correction .... Oversold within an Uptrend .... Watching Inside Days in XLY and XLI .... XLE and XES Go their Separate Ways .... Exxon and Chevron Lead XLE Lower .... Radware Breaks Out as Icon Firms .... //// ....
Revisiting the 2013 Taper Tantrum
Many analysts are comparing the...
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A Bad Chart Review for TripAdvisor
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart for TripAdvisor (TRIP) shows bearish patterns on two different timeframes and the stock looks poised for a breakdown. First, note that the long-term trend is down because the 50-day EMA is well below the 200-day EMA. Also notice that the stock hit a 52-week low with the sharp...
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Back Down We Go...Where Will It End?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for September 13, 2016
Honestly, I'm not at all surprised at the failure on Tuesday for the bulls to capitalize on Monday's rally. We had a lot of room to key short-term price resistance after Friday's free fall in our major indices....
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It May Be Time To Get Bullish Again
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Broadening formation is still bullish
* What are the short-term indicators saying?
* What are important intermarket relationships saying about the recent drop?
* Is Dr. Copper about to make a house call?
On balance, the stock market has dropped since early last week, but peripheral price action has been constructive. That leads...
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ANOTHER JUMP IN TREASURY YIELD PUSHES GLOBAL BOND AND STOCK PRICES LOWER -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE TAKING THE BIGGEST FOREIGN HIT -- BOUNCING DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITIES LOWER -- ENERGY IS BIGGEST SECTOR LOSER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ANOTHER JUMP IN BOND YIELD PUSHES BOND PRICES LOWER... Treasury yields continue to bounce which is pushing bond prices and stocks sharply lower. Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield jumping another six basis points to 1.73%. That's pushing bond prices lower. Chart 2 shows the 20+...
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Defining Bull and Bear Market Environments with Breadth Indicators - Webinar Video
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Webinar Video (here) -- Art's Charts ChartList (here)
Gap and Volatility Hold .... Measuring Broad Market Breadth .... Using AD Percent for Early Warning .... New Highs Lag in S&P 500 .... Vast Majority of Stocks Still Trending Up .... Putting it All Together .... Discretionary and Staples Weigh on Sector Table...
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U.S. Stocks Rebound Strongly But......
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, September 12, 2016
There were two problems with the rally on Monday. First, there was the issue of failure at price and gap resistance as I will discuss in the Current Outlook section below. Second was the issue of leadership on the advance. Don't...
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Wynn Resorts Bucks the Selling Pressure
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It is always interesting to find out which stocks advance when the market falls sharply, such as Friday. The S&P 500 was down over 2% with heavy selling pressure, but 11 stocks managed to buck the selling pressure and close higher on Friday. How's that for...
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Heavy Volume Selling Turns Tables; Expect More Selling
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Special Note
We're less than two weeks away from ChartCon 2016, the biggest online financial conference of the year!!! Be sure to reserve your spot today! CLICK HERE to learn more about the event, including the speakers and agenda. The theme this year is "building a successful...
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Measuring Selling Climaxes - A Pullback or More? - 3 Items to Mark Next Support - Testing a Mean Reversion System
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Comparing the Current Decline with Prior Events .... Measuring Selling Climaxes .... Just a Pullback or More? .... Three Items Marking Next Support for the S&P 500 .... Putting EMA Crosses to the Test .... Mean Reversion Systems have Positive Expectancy .... //// ....
Comparing the Current Decline with Prior Events
The major index ETFs broke...
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SPY: Finally a Breakdown
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Last week in my article, Two More Months of This Stuff?, I wondered if the market would continue to move in the narrow, boring two-month trading range. This week we got the answer: No. The chart below shows Friday's high-volume breakdown through the support line drawn across the...
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JUMP IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS SENDS BOND AND STOCK PRICES SHARPLY LOWER -- LONG-TERM CHARTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BOTTOM IN TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD AND A BOND TOP -- S&P 500 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE IN HEAVY TRADING -- VIX JUMPS 40% TO TWO -MONTH HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JUMP IN BOND YIELDS WASN'T A BIG SURPRISE... This week's jump in bond yields started on Thursday when the ECB failed to extend its bond buying program. That helped push the 10-Year German bund yield into positive territory for the first time since July. UK bond...
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The Case For Rising Rates Is Starting To Fall In Place
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
The long-term picture
A couple of weeks ago I started to make the case for rising rates, based partly on the kind of price action featured in Chart 1. However, what was needed to reverse some of the longer term trends of falling yields and rising prices in the credit...
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Tracking Big Footprints
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
Two of the most elusive and rare phenomena in the world are; 1) a Big Foot (Sasquatch) sighting and 2) evidence of the Composite Operator. In both cases we start by tracking their footprints. By stalking and following these footprints we hope for an infrequent sighting of these elusive creatures....
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JUMP IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS PUSHES STOCKS INTO DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS TWO-MONTH HIGH -- STOCKS ARE FALLING WITH BOND PRICES -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 SPDRS ARE BREAKING 50-DAY LINE IN HEAVY TRADING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... The upturn in global bond yields that started Thursday on ECB inaction continues today. Bond yields are rising sharply around the globe (after hawkish comments from another Fed governor). Ten year yields in Germany and the UK are up 7 and 10 basis...
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How I Use My Personal Pocket Pads to Produce Profits
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
As many of you know, American composer extraordinaire Richard Rodgers collaborated with Oscar Hammerstein to produce some of the greatest musicals of the 20th century. Discussing their success, he once explained his thoughts on what it takes to be a superb songwriter. In his marvelous quote, I took the liberty...
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