As many of you know, American composer extraordinaire Richard Rodgers collaborated with Oscar Hammerstein to produce some of the greatest musicals of the 20th century. Discussing their success, he once explained his thoughts on what it takes to be a superb songwriter. In his marvelous quote, I took the liberty... READ MORE
Marking Pullback Support for the S&P 500 .... QQQ Stalls as Apple Lags the Fab Five .... Apple Falls on High Volume .... Alphabet and Microsoft Hold above Breakouts .... Amazon and Facebook are the Clear Leaders .... XLY Shows Internal Weakness .... Five Consumer Discretionary Stocks Showing Weakness .... Friday Food for Thought .... //// .... Marking... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, September 8, 2016 If you haven't noticed, maybe you should. Energy (XLE, +1.87%) is in a bull market, posting 5.17% gains in just the last week! That's not a bad year. It's not like U.S. equities have... READ MORE
If today's blog title is enticing, then you definitely should consider signing up for ChartCon 2016 - September 23/24. This is the title of my presentation. Obviously, I don't have the time or space to write about this in detail, but I did want to... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing six basis points to 1.60%. That followed a jump in European bond yields following the ECB failure to announce any additional monetary stimulus. That caused selling in European sovereign bonds, which led to selling here.... READ MORE
Domtar Corp (UFS) has returned to a key support zone between 37.00-37.50. A close below this level would be bearish as Domtar's longer-term chart is neutral at best. I'd be looking for the top of the earnings-related gap higher in late July to hold.... READ MORE
A Stealth Correction ... Stocks to Watch on the Art's Charts ChartList ... An Impressive Parade of New Highs ... XBI Successfully Tests Breakout ... XOP is Outperforming XES ... Volatility Calendar ... //// ... A Stealth Correction A stock or ETF can correct with a pullback, a trading range or a combination of the two.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, September 7, 2016 Consumer staples (XLP, -0.87%) had a rough Wednesday while most other sectors finished just above or below the breakeven level for the day. Of the 10 industry groups that make up consumer staples, only drug retailers ($DJUSRD) finished higher - fractionally so.... READ MORE
TRANSPORTATION ISHARES TURN UP... My message from last Wednesday expressed concern about the inability of the Dow Transports to keep pace with the Dow Industrials. According to Dow Theory, both Dow Averages should be rising together. A jump in transportation stocks is relieving those concerns. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, September 6, 2016 Energy (XLE, +1.51%) was the clear leader on Tuesday, resuming their leadership role in 2016. Utilities (XLU, +1.09%) also continued its recent climb off price support near 49.00, actually closing above its declining 20 day EMA for the first time... READ MORE
The year started weak for small-caps, but their fortunes quickly turned around in February and this group is now leading the market. The chart below shows the Russell 2000 relative to the Russell 1000 using the price relative ($RUT:$RUI ratio). The Russell 2000 represents the 2000 smallest stocks in... READ MORE
I was recently interviewed on FinancialSense.com regarding the DecisionPoint outlook in the short, intermediate and long terms. What seemed to get the most notice was that I said that it wasn't out of the question that we could be preparing for a new bull market leg. Admittedly,... READ MORE
Click here for Webinar recording .... Linear Regression Defines the Trend .... Small, Mid and Micro Lead the Charge .... IWM Works its Way Higher .... The Volatility Calendar .... Is it Possible to Profit from Volatility? .... Webinar Preview .... //// ... Linear Regression Defines the Trend The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) remains with a slow... READ MORE
Special Webinar Scheduling Note Because of the holiday-shortened trading week, please be sure to check out the webinar calendar on the home page. Monday's Bowley Briefing and Trading Places LIVE were cancelled due to the Labor Day holiday here in the U.S., but webinars are a "... READ MORE
Back in the days of printed newspapers, magazines, and newsletters the acquisition of news and information was easier, or so it seemed. The reason it seemed easier is that there was much less of it. Today, with the internet, 24-hour financial media, blogs, and every conceivable method of acquisition, information... READ MORE
* Two possible scenarios for commodities * The primary trend picture * Commodity breadth * What’s the bond market saying? Two possible scenarios for commodities The last time I wrote about commodities my comments had a bullish slant. The CRB Composite ($CRB), having experienced an approximate 8-week correction involving a successful test of... READ MORE
The stock market has been trading in an extremely narrow range for almost two months. During that time I have mostly attributed this unusual action to the ambivalence of the Fed: "We really want to raise interest rates, except we really don't want to raise interest rates.... READ MORE
The market has been in consolidation mode for over six weeks now. The S&P closed at 2173 on July 20. It closed at 2179 on Friday. During that period of time any pullbacks have been shallow and short-lived with the S&P topping twice at 2193 and... READ MORE
While most of the media focus is on sideways action in large cap stocks, smaller stocks have been rising. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) ending the week at a new record high. The solid matter is a relative strength... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! The markets continue to move sideways causing trend and momentum indicators to gradually lose their usefulness. The best way to see that is to look at the "2000 DJIA - Daily Analysis" chart on the new "ChartWatchers LIVE ChartList" (click on the link... READ MORE
One of my favorite trades is looking for a bounce off of gap support. Many times, the top of gap support will provide great support and the stock will never "fill" the entire gap back to the prior close. PulteGroup (PHM) lost the top of its gap support... READ MORE
Semiconductors are leading the charge in tech stocks as the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) extends its gains and notches another 52-week high this week. Note that the ETF is up around 15% the last three months and it is one of the top performing industry group ETFs. The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX)... READ MORE
S&P BOUNCES BUT ON LOW VOLUME... The stock market climbed on Friday on the weak August job figure on lower expectations for a September Fed hike. Friday's intermarket action, however, was somewhat muted. It's true that stocks jumped, but on lower volume. Chart 1... READ MORE
First, I'd like to invite everyone to join us via the internet for ChartCon 2016. It's only three weeks away and everyone here is growing very excited for this one-of-a-kind event. There will be tons of technically-oriented presentations from leading technical experts. You don't... READ MORE
Liquidity can be equated to the availability of money. In terms of the market, when there is money on the sidelines, it is available for investing and could boost the market when/if it is invested. There are many measures, but I like using the Rydex Cashflow Ratio chart as... READ MORE
This “Charts I’m Stalking” blog is the second in a new series which will be a bi-weekly feature of The Traders Journal. I’ve decided to actually take it one step further than I initially explained in my August 19th blog. “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase... READ MORE
DISAPPOINTING JOBS REPORT... This morning's August jobs report saw a gain of 151,000 jobs versus estimates for a gain of 180,000. That low number is giving a boost to stocks, and helping to unwind some of the recent hedges against a possible September rate hike. Most... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, September 1, 2016 Key support levels were tested - and held once again - at 2160 and 5190 on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, respectively. We're not going any higher, but we're not breaking down either. The S&... READ MORE
Taking the Emotion out of Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls .... No Issues with Weekly SPY Chart .... Backtest Review for Key EMA Crossover .... ChartCon Strategy Preview .... QQQ Stalls with Very Tight Range .... Small-caps and Large-caps Continue to Outperform .... AD Percent Stalls along with Indexes .... New Highs Wane, but New Lows Remain... READ MORE
A cornerstone of the Wyckoff Methodology is the concept of the Action and the resulting Test of prices. Price has a surge of power when it emerges into a Markup Phase or a Markdown Phase. During the Markup Phase prices rise on an imbalance of buying power that exceeds the... READ MORE
Haliburton (HAL) had risen close to 70% from its February low to its early June high, but since that time has simply consolidated those gains. Over the past two weeks, HAL has declined close to 10% and is nearing a very important short-term price support level. The closer it gets... READ MORE
REITs and Banks go their Separate Ways // Financial Services Starts to Outperform // Real Estate Starts to Underperform // Notes on XLRE and XLFS // REITs are Negatively Correlated to Treasury Yields // Banks are Positively Correlated to Yields //// ..... REITs and Banks go their Separate Ways Standard and Poor's is removing REITs... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, August 31, 2016 Higher treasury yields in August are impacting more than just a few interest-sensitive equity groups. It's also been driving the U.S. dollar higher. A higher dollar can also affect equities in various ways. Yesterday was a prime example as energy... READ MORE
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO FIRM ... The rally in the dollar that started late last week is still intact. The rally started on Friday following statements from the Fed that seemed to suggest a rate hike sooner rather than later. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the PowerShares US Dollar Index... READ MORE
It has been a rough summer for Whole Foods Market (WFM) as the stock plunged in June and late July. Both declines were sharp and featured big gaps. The stock did bounce between the two declines, but formed a lower high in late July. Most recently, WFM has been consolidating... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, August 30, 2016 Eight of nine sectors fell on Tuesday, with financials (XLF, +0.90%) the lone gaining sector. This behavior seems to be setting the stage for a Fed rate hike, probably sooner rather than later. Banks ($DJUSBK) continue to lead the recent action and... READ MORE
On the Relative Rotation Graph below, the rotation of various asset classes is shown against the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX). The single one tail that immediately stands out is the one of DJP (Commodities). Then there are IEF (Government bonds) on the far left inside the lagging quadrant and... READ MORE
* Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates * What are the short-term technicals saying about rates? * High versus low beta Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates Last week I wrote that the vast majority of long-term stock market indicators were... READ MORE
Market Recap for August 29, 2016 It was a strong, wide participation kind of day for U.S. equities on Monday as August 2016 nears a close. Stocks continue to battle through various sorts of difficulty, including negative divergences, slowing volume, seasonal headwinds, questionable relative ratios (offense vs. defense ratios)... READ MORE
Webinar Recording ---- Webinar ChartList SPY and MDY are Barely Positive this Month // RSI(5) and the Dreaded Double Dip // The Noose Continues to Tighten for Treasuries // How Yields Effect Gold, Utilities and Finance // US 10-yr Yields Sticks Out // XLF and KRE Maintain Breakouts // XLU and IYR Forge Bullish Setups... READ MORE