Market Recap for Wednesday, November 11, 2015 Wednesday wasn't a horrible day, but the back and forth action ended with a "back" as our major indices finished on or near their lows for the session. Mid-day it was much more promising than that as early losses... READ MORE
* KST for the VIX triggers a sell signal for equities in general * Junk Bonds have reversed to the downside * Dollar breaks to the upside on a broad basis * Some commodities break to new lows The corrective process we talked about last week is still underway. Sometimes the technical position improves... READ MORE
Small-caps are still underperforming large-caps, but the small and mid-cap indices moved into the improving quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) with a classic end-around play. Just go to YouTube if you need to review this play. The RRG shows performance for the S&P Small-Cap 600, Russell... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, November 10, 2015 Technology and materials shares held back the market on Tuesday. These sectors were down .66% and .73%, respectively. Industrials were flat, while the remaining six sectors finished higher on the session. CreditSuisse lowered its earnings estimates for Apple (AAPL) and Seabreeze Partners Management... READ MORE
Most blog authors on StockCharts.com are writing about the current markets and do an exceptional job. I do not write about the current markets as I wanted to share my experiences after 40+ years as a technical analyst. Not only experiences with trading and investing, but model building and... READ MORE
I am repeatedly asked what are the most important DecisionPoint charts to watch for determining trend reversals or how to use the DecisionPoint indicators for confirmations. I'll preface this article by reminding everyone that all indicators and trend following models have limitations, but the charts below are the... READ MORE
Pockets of Weakness Persist // SPY and QQQ Maintain Short-term Uptrends // IWM Starts to Outperform // XLY and XLK Ripe for a Rest // Materials and Energy Remain Weak // Retail and Housing Continue to Lag // HACK Looks Vulnerable // Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Fall Short // Biotechs Setting Up for a Fall... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, November 9, 2015 Monday represented the worst one day performance for U.S. stocks since the late September low printed. 8 of 9 sectors were lower, led by consumer discretionary (XLY) and financials (XLF). The only sector spared was the defensive utilities (XLU) group, which simply... READ MORE
PPO Defined // Trend Signals // Trend and Momentum // Parameters and Timeframes // Weekly Chart Settings // Trend Filtering, Setups and Signals // Adding a Momentum Trigger // Bad Trades and Exit Strategies // Conclusions and Thoughts // Scanning with the PPO // Recreating the SharpCharts //// **************************************************************************** Trading with the PPO Table of Contents * What Exactly is... READ MORE
Deere (DE) is not keeping pace with broader market and a bearish momentum signal just triggered. Deere was hit with the rest of the stock market in August and fell sharply. This was normal because the broad market was under intense selling pressure. The S&P 500 ultimately held... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, November 6, 2015 We didn't make any major breakouts on Friday, but after initial weakness we did see the aggressive indices - NASDAQ and Russell 2000 - close nicely. In addition, the exceptionally strong October jobs report sent financial stocks soaring, especially banks ($DJUSBK)... READ MORE
Semiconductors have been one of the hottest areas of the market off the August low and especially during the month of October. That's created a number of trading opportunities in the space. I would consider Microsemi Corp to be one of those opportunities now based on its cup... READ MORE
Earnings season has been in high gear the past few weeks with thousands of companies reporting their numbers. So far the results have been mixed but maybe better than most expected with the S&P now back to within striking range of its all time high. One of the... READ MORE
Summary * Commodities threatening to break down yet again * Bond rally starting to fade already, halting turn for the better * S&P 500 leading in international equity rotation Quick scan The Relative Rotation Graph above holds a number of asset class ETFs while using VBINX (Vanguard Balanced Index fund) as... READ MORE
About a month ago $GOLD went on an IT Trend Model BUY signal, and I had this to say about it: The overall picture for $GOLD is bearish but showing improvement. The current BUY signal may offer some opportunities on the long side, and may even prove to be a... READ MORE
Friday's jobs report caused some minor profit-taking in major stock indexes, but not enough to alter the current uptrend. The chart below shows the S&P 500 dropping slightly Wednesday through Friday (but closing up for the week). I've pointed out that stocks are up... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! We're pretty busy today re-vamping our network security systems so I only have time for a quick post with two important points: 1.) The Dow has shot up a ton recently and is ready for a pull-back. The MACD line shows faltering momentum - specifically,... READ MORE
STOCKS END THE WEEK MIXED, BUT STILL IN UPTREND... Friday's jobs report caused some minor profit-taking in major stock indexes, but not enough to alter the current uptrend. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 dropping slightly Wednesday through Friday (but closing up for the week). I&... READ MORE
The employment report showed that 271,000 jobs were added in October, above even the highest estimate and that sent traders flocking out of treasuries. But what was bad news for treasuries was great news for banks. Higher treasury yields generally lead to higher net interest margins for banks. Technically,... READ MORE
Chartists can use the Correlation Coefficient to understand the relationship between Treasury yields and certain groups, such as banks, utilities and REITs. The chart below shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($UST10Y) in the main window and seven correlations in the indicator windows. I am using weekly data, a 13-week Correlation... READ MORE
Let me preface this article by defining bull and bear markets according to DecisionPoint. DecisionPoint considers 50/200-EMA crossovers the distinguishing factor between a bull market and bear market. These crossovers are what determine the Long-Term Trend Model signals. We have two of the major indexes covered in the DP... READ MORE
Redistributions are messy. They come in many shapes and sizes and defy categorization. Therefore my job is particularly difficult here. Our mission is to find actionable characteristics in Redistributions that Wyckoffians can benefit from. Here is the problem in a nutshell. Recall that under Reaccumulation (pause in an uptrend) a... READ MORE
The State of Stocks 2015 // Performance Metrics // $NDX has the Most Leaders // Choppy Upward Bias for SPX // Mid-caps Break Down into Thirds // Internal Divisions Weigh on Small-caps // A Sector, Industry Group and Stock Pickers Market // Friday Food for Thought //// The State of Stocks in 2015 Today I am breaking down... READ MORE
A good friend of mine who is a professional money manager recently invited my family to hear former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speak at a forum here in Seattle. As you might expect, much of his talk centered on the 2007-2008 financial meltdown. As Bernanke described these events in... READ MORE
SURPRISINGLY STRONG JOBS REPORT... Today's surprisingly strong jobs report took markets by surprise, but is having predictable intermaket results. First, it pushed Treasury yields sharply higher. That's based on the belief that the strong report increases the odds for a Fed rate hike in December. Chart... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, November 5, 2015 Utilities and energy were the laggards on Thursday, which wasn't bad action considering the recent strength we've had. In other words, our aggressive sectors managed to perform well on a relative basis. Also, the small cap Russell 2000 index... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint Scoreboard Summary below had an important change today. The S&P 100 (OEX) just received a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. This signal generated when the 50-EMA crossed back above the 200-EMA. This signal is very important as it moves the OEX from a "bear... READ MORE
Market pullback likely in November * Rates rising across the yield maturity spectrum * Dollar Index close to an upside breakout * Commodities look weaker The short-term condition of the market is very overstretched, to say the least. Even if we are still in a bull market some form of November correction appears... READ MORE
No signal is perfect, but the relative performance of consumer stocks is one to watch. The reason is simple. When consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) outperform their consumer staples counterparts (XLP), a bet is being made by market participants that our economy is strong or appears to be strengthening. Keep in... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, November 4, 2015 Wednesday represented a day of consolidation as only two sectors were able to close higher - utilities and technology - and the latter was barely higher. The other 7 sectors finished down in a session of profit taking. While utilities (XLU) rose, they... READ MORE
Holding Patterns for QQQ and SPY // XLY and XLK Remain the Leaders // Utilities Hit Make-or-break Level // 10-yr Yield is on the Verge // How Will Rising Yields Affect Other Groups? // Media Stocks Get Pummeled // Housing Stocks Still Trending Lower //// Holding Patterns for QQQ and SPY There is no change in the... READ MORE
YELLEN PUSHES YIELDS HIGHER... Janet Yellen sounded a hawkish tone again today about the possibility of a December rate hike. That pushed U.S. rates higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield climbing to the highest level in two months. Shorter-term rates climbed even more. That caused selling... READ MORE
Short-term Treasury yields surged over the last six days and recent breakouts suggest that the Fed will raise short-term rates in December. Yes, it sounds blasphemous, but the bond market tends to lead the Fed in these matters. In fact, I would suggest that the bond market is the closest... READ MORE
CH 8 Up Volume Down Volume Indicators As a reminder these articles about the chapters in the upcoming book are only samples of what are in each chapter; they are not the entire chapter. The breadth indicators in this section utilize either up volume, down volume, or both in their... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, November 3, 2015 Energy (XLE) surged 2.56% on Tuesday, fueling yet another market rally to spur the S&P 500 to 2110, just 1% beneath its all-time closing high of 2130.82 set on May 21, 2015. Since setting reverse right shoulder support at... READ MORE
Many of you have been watching the DP Scoreboards in the DecisionPoint Chart Gallery (SPX, OEX, NDX and Dow). Today, the Long-Term Trend Model moved to a BUY signal on the SPY. The 50-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA, moving it from a bear market environment back into a bull market... READ MORE
Highlights: AD Line Reflects Broad Market Strength // When Overbought is Positive // QQQ and SPY Extend Uptrends // IWM Breaks Back Out // Short and Medium Term Seasonal Patterns // Consumer Discretionary Sector Breaks Resistance // Housing and Retail Still Lagging // Oil Still Bearish // Webinar Highlights //// AD Line Reflects Broad Market Strength The broad market... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, November 2, 2015 The action on Monday was mostly positive, especially as we look at the performance of our major indices. All were higher and relative strength was seen by the more aggressive Russell 2000 and NASDAQ. That's always a good thing. Energy and... READ MORE
Refiner stocks are showing relative strength and absolute strength. The table below shows nine refiner stocks from the Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK). Eight of the nine are part of our StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) universe and six of the nine have SCTRs above 90. Calumet (CLMT) is a small-cap stock... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, October 30, 2015 It was a lacklaster day for equities until a late day selling binge. U.S. treasuries were bought on Friday after a couple weeks of selling and that sent yields slightly lower and weighed on the financial sector, banks ($DJUSBK) in particular. Technically,... READ MORE