Gambling stocks ($DJUSCA) have been BY FAR the worst performing industry group within the consumer discretionary sector over the past year, dropping 27.72%. There are only two other industry groups in this sector in negative territory - clothing & accessories ($DJUSCF) and recreational products ($DJUSRP) which have fallen 8.... READ MORE
Market on the verge of what? That is the question. The 50EMA is very close to crossing up through the 200EMA, which would change the long-term status from bearish to bullish. And SPY is only about 2.5% away from making new highs. What could go wrong? Some other things... READ MORE
Summary * Information Technology standing out in S&P universe * Weak rotation for HPQ, SYMC and IBM * MU not expected to reach leading quadrant * NVDA, ATVI and FIS show stable relative uptrends * Opportunities for INTC, SNDK and MSFT Information Technology positioned for strong sector rotation My previous article already highlighted... READ MORE
HALLOWEEN INDICATOR ... Stocks had the best October since 2011. That bodes well for the rest of the fourth quarter and the next six months. The three months between November and January are traditionally the best three months of the year. As is the six-month period between November and April. As... READ MORE
Bear markets are wild and wooly affairs; quick and painful, slow and tortuous, and every other kind of difficulty imaginable. Bear markets get less attention from market students than the other phases of price action. Amnesia sets in for investors after a bear market. Who among us can remember the... READ MORE
Commentary Highlights: Bulk of the Evidence Is... // New Highs Outpace New Lows // Monthly S&P 500 Turns Bullish // Engulfings and Pullbacks in 2010 and 2011 // Consumer Discretionary Lags %Above 50-day // Finance and Tech Lead %Above 200-day // Russell 2000 Still Stalling // A Better Small-cap Index // Utilities Index Hits a Wall... READ MORE
I would like to acknowledge that this update has significant enhancements to many chartlists, as well as all 40 of the usual Fidelity Select Sector Funds due to a new collaboration. Grayson Roze is now working at StockCharts full-time since graduating from Swarthmore College in June. He has brought many... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, October 29, 2015 All of our major indices saw selling on Thursday, although losses on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were relatively minor, with the latter losing less than one point. Action was contained in a fairly tight range with energy (XLE) and... READ MORE
While scanning my charts for my DecisionPoint Alert daily market review, I happened on the S&P 500 Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) Analysis chart. It didn't look as I would've expected. This prompted me to review the same PMO Analysis charts for other indexes to... READ MORE
GPRO reported revenues and earnings that fell short of expectations after the bell last night and the reaction was about as you might expect - down 17% on the open. It's since recovered and is attempting to print a significant red hollow candle on massive volume. As a... READ MORE
* Market breadth on the rally not so hot * Credit spreads are a likely bell weather for equities * Dollar Index reaches critical resistance The power of the recent rally has been a surprise to most observers including myself. The big question is whether it is part of a topping out process,... READ MORE
Commentary Highlights: QQQ and SPY Near Highs // End of Month Seasonality // Regional Banks Power Finance Sector // 50% Participation is Enough to Power SPX // Software and Internet Lead Techs // GDX Fails to Break Out // Palladium Corrects after Impulse Surge // Oil Gets Oversold Bounce // Dollar Gets a Breakout // Dollar-Commodity Correlations Come Into... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, October 28, 2015 One of the most bullish historical periods of the year got off to a bullish start with the help of the Fed. But if you've been following the U.S. stock market for a few years, that was nothing new. The... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS RISE ... Today's Fed statement had a slightly more hawkish tone than markets were expecting, and left the door open for a possible December rate hike. After a brief dip, stocks ended strong. Financials bounced sharply on the Fed statement, while rate-sensitive utilities sold off. A bounce... READ MORE
Treasury yields are in a clear downtrend since June, but a small anomaly is taking shape because the 30-year Treasury Yield ($UST30Y) did not confirm the lower low in the 10-year Treasury Yield ($UST10Y). The first chart shows the 10-yr yield peaking around 2.5% and falling towards the 2%... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, October 27, 2015 It was a rather non-eventful day on Tuesday with our major indices in negative territory throughout much of the day. There was a bit of bifurcation once again as the NASDAQ 100 finished in positive territory while the Russell 2000 once again lagged... READ MORE
Warning: This article is for nerds only! I have often stated that Standard Deviation (Sigma) is an inappropriate measure of risk. For example, October 19, 1987 was a 22 Sigma event. The Dow Industrials fell 508 points. An event that based upon the tools of modern finance, was impossible to... READ MORE
Last week I wrote my blog article about small and mid cap stocks not participating in the recent rally which is a sign of instability in the market as a whole. A review of the daily price charts in that blog article for the S&P 400, S&... READ MORE
Embracing Relative Performance There is really only one thing to do with relative performance metrics: embrace them. If large-caps are outperforming small-caps, then favor large-caps over small-caps. If the consumer staples sector is outperforming the consumer discretionary sector, then favor consumer staple stocks over consumer discretionary stocks. Following relative strength... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, October 26, 2015 Relatively speaking, there was little volatility in U.S. equities on Monday as each of our major indices showed minor gaps at the open and then traded within Friday's trading range. In other words, we didn't see any higher... READ MORE
The percentage of NYSE net new highs remains at relatively low levels and chartists should watch this indicator for clues on follow through to the October surge. StockCharts users can plot new highs and new lows using SharpCharts. The first chart shows NYSE New 52-week Highs ($NYHGH) and NYSE New... READ MORE
Never Underestimate the Power of the Trend An important change occurred over the last two weeks as the overall market environment moved from bearish to bullish. The weekly trend for the Nasdaq 100 turned back up on October 9th and the weekly trend for the S&P 500 turned... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, October 23, 2015 Huge earnings reports from the likes of Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), among others, sent NASDAQ 100 shares flying higher on Friday, far outpacing the broader stock market. For the week, technology and industrial shares rose 4.43% and 4.... READ MORE
After the strong upside price action we've had in the last two days, I was expecting to see strong internal readings as well. But no. While price is within about two percent of record highs, internal readings are fading. On the chart above the green bars, which represent... READ MORE
I don't like to place bets into earnings reports, but priceline.com (PCLN) sure does look to be a replica of Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL). AMZN and GOOGL both reported strong results in July and gapped significantly higher. After pulling back for several weeks to fill their... READ MORE
How can I be energized after teaching a six-hour workshop? When investors appreciate the message, their enthusiasm is like jet fuel. Partly, I assume that contagious enthusiasm is what I love about the stock market in general. In any event, Chip Anderson, Grayson Roze and I presented our Asset Allocation... READ MORE
Even though indicators help us quantify price action and add an objective aspect to our analysis, we must still study the price chart and analyze the price action. For example, it looks like the long-term uptrend is resuming for the S&P 500, but some of the price indicators... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, October 22, 2015 It was a very bullish kind of day. There was strength at the opening bell and outside of a brief mid-day bout of selling, buying continued through the close. Adding an exclamation point was the volume. Barring option expiration days and the panicked... READ MORE
It was pointed out to me that small- and mid-cap stocks were not participating in the recent rally in comparison to the major indexes on our DP Scoreboards that I've recently covered in previous blogs. I called up three charts, the S&P 400, S&P... READ MORE
When trendlines are drawn, with the Wyckoff Method, it is like putting on 3D glasses. With proper trend analysis two dimensional charts spring to life and reveal their innermost secrets and true intentions. Demand lines, Supply Lines, Overbought Lines, Oversold Lines, Support Lines and Resistance Lines; they all tell a... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR TURNS UP ... Throughout the summer, I expressed concern about the weak performance in the economically-sensitive industrial sector. That situation has taken a dramatic turn for the better. Chart 1 shows the Industrials SPDR (XLI) leaping 3% today and trading above its 200-day average. The XLI has also broken... READ MORE
Sirius Satellite (SIRI) has been trying to clear the 4.00-4.10 resistance area for two years now. This consolidation or basing period is very bullish since it follows a period of rising prices. We need to see the breakout first, however. SIRI reported its quarterly earnings and met Wall... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, October 21, 2015 The U.S. stock market closed on a sour note on Wednesday as only very minor gains in consumer staples and industrials saved the bulls from an entire sector sweep. Leading to the downside were energy and healthcare as it's been... READ MORE
Internal Divisions Stymie Market It is still a tale of two markets. Within the broader stock market, large-caps and large-techs are holding up well, but small-caps and mid-caps are dragging their feet. At the sector level, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR shows relative strength because its top holdings are performing well,... READ MORE
I’m quite sure the title had you thinking. Is it about driving a manual transmission automobile aggressively? Or is It a personality trait that is not good? Neither of those are even close, it is about the average (mean) of a strategy’s return distributions. My Dance with the... READ MORE
Summary * Health Care (XLV) catching a cold as it is rolling over * Financials (XLF) at crossroads, needing to unlock one of two scenarios in coming weeks * Energy and Materials gaining relative momentum inside the improving quadrant, but follow-through is questionable * Utilities, Staples and Discretionary stable inside the leading quadrant * Information... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, October 20, 2015 The Dow Jones U.S Biotech Index ($DJUSBT) fell 2.5% on Tuesday, failing to hold onto the 20 day EMA it had barely broken above the prior three trading sessions. That led to a healthcare group that lagged the overall market badly... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for trucking stocks and most of these stocks are lagging the broader market. A look at the trucking stocks from the Sector Summary shows a handful with SCTRs above 50. The vast majority of SCTRs are 50. The SCTR is the StockCharts Technical Rank... READ MORE
The bear market rally has now extended to Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals. You'll see in the DP Scoreboards below that the Nasdaq 100, S&P 100 and Dow flipped to BUYs. Don't belittle the S&P 500 for staying Neutral, it is hundredths... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS BUILD ON GOOD NEWS... Yesterday's announcement that homebuilding sentiment had jumped to a ten-year high was followed by today's report that September housing starts had the second biggest jump in eight years. Not surprisingly, homebuilders are having a strong day. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE