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The Golden State Trade with Oracle and Under Armour
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Two stocks associated with the Golden State Warriors are showing promise as Step Curry leads his team to a 3-2 lead in the series. The Warriors play in the Oracle Arena and Oracle (ORCL) is making waves with an ascending triangle. Admittedly, the pattern is a little long and the...
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3 GAPS DOMINATE SPY, IWM HOLDS SUPPORT, ITB BOUNCES OFF CHANNEL, 6 HOMEBUILDER STOCKS, RETAIL SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH, RCD GETS A BAND SQUEEZE, SMALL AND MID CAP BREADTH STRENGTHENS, LARGE-CAP BREADTH WEAKENS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THREE GAPS DOMINATE THE SHORT-TERM TREND FOR SPY... It is currently a tale of two markets. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) has been trending lower since late May, but the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) has been trending higher over this same timeframe. The broader market is likely to...
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QQQ Triangulates, IWM Leads, USO Challenges Bull Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved up at the beginning of the week and down towards the end of the week. The end result was mixed for the major index ETFs as QQQ fell around .50% and IWM gained .42%. The sectors were mixed with finance showing strength and energy showing weakness. Strength in...
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GOLD: Picture Improving Slightly
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The outlook for gold depends primarily on the outlook for the U.S. dollar, so let's look at the chart of the dollar ETF. After declining for about two months from the March top, UUP rallied in May, but topped before it could reach the declining tops line....
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Financials and Technology .... really ?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph of US sectors (10 ETFs) is showing some interesting sector rotation going on at the moment.
Initial observations
Glancing over the RRG above continues to show Energy (XLE) and Utilities (XLU) "standing out", as in "far away from the mean", like they...
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Francis Bacon Reveals the Nature of Trends
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
Francis Bacon said; “As in nature things move violently to their place and calmly in their place…”. It seems that Mr. Bacon understood the stock market very well. Stocks tend to move calmly, gently, listlessly in their trading ranges and then they move violently into trends. A tipping point between...
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Twitter (TWTR) Nearing The UnTweetable
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
There hasn't been much positive news to tweet about at Twitter (TWTR) lately. In the midst of its downward spiral in price action, CEO Dick Costolo announced he would be resigning from TWTR and TWTR's co-founder and Chairman Jack Dorsey would take over. The problem here...
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If You Are Bullish On US Equities Try Looking At China For A Signal
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* - Special K for the NYSE Composite breaks support
* - Emerging markets getting oversold
* - Commodities are about to resolve their recent trading range
A Chinese leading Indicator?
It’s a well-known fact that the Chinese market has been the hottest on earth in recent months. What’s not so...
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BORING UPTREND, EQUAL-WEIGHT SPX WEAKNESS, IWM FOLLOW UP, INDUSTRIALS SPDR BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT, GE, HON AND UTX STALL, FEDEX HITS NEW HIGH, WILL UPS FOLLOW?, VIDEO EXTRAS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A PERSISTENT AND BORING UPTREND... Link for today's video. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, remains in a boring uptrend. Better a boring uptrend than a boring downtrend. As noted in Tuesday's webinar, the 5-day Rate-of-Change has been between +3.5%...
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Don't Always Believe Your Technical Indicators
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I love technical analysis. I spent two decades in public accounting, was a prinicipal in a large regional CPA firm in the Washington DC metropolitan area and audited companies in several industries, including banks. But as I say over and over again, you can have the financial statements and review...
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Investment Editor Retires: Leaves Us with Four Lessons That Matter
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Almost without exception, institutional money managers use Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My own trading routines call for reviewing the top 100 ETFs daily. This is a process that I encourage you to include in your own routines. Here’s how and why.
I maintain a personal ChartList of the top...
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SPY Stalls at Resistance - USO Hits Flag Trend Line
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were flat on Thursday as the market digested Wednesday's big gain. The major index ETFs closed slightly higher with IWM gaining .25% and MDY leading with a .60% advance. The sectors were mixed with modest gains in industrials, materials and healthcare. Energy weakened as the USO Oil...
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Scanning the DecisionPoint Way - June 10th Webinar Scan Revisited
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Yesterday during the DecisionPoint LIVE! webinar (link here), I demonstrated how to 'pick' stocks the DecisionPoint way using the Scanning Workbench available to Extra, ExtraRT and Pro members. I've created quite a few different scans that take advantage of the DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) and...
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Mobileye (MBLY) Sees Breakout on Heavy Volume
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Mobileye (MBLY) is one of the companies behind the car crash avoidance technology. MBLY broke its downtrend line in early March on surging volume and has been trending higher ever since. Volume trends remain very strong and today's breakout is occurring on excellent volume as it clears double...
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A Breadth Up Thrust - IWM Leads - USO Challenges Flag Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged with the major index ETFs opening strong and finishing strong. We did not see a pop and drop, and this is positive. The gains were relatively even with IWM gaining 1.25%, QQQ advancing 1.37% and SPY surging 1.20%. All sectors were up with technology and...
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GLOBAL STOCKS BOUNCE SHARPLY ON POSSIBLE GREEK COMPROMISE -- DOW AND S&P 500 BOUNCE OFF INITIAL CHART SUPPORT -- NASDAQ HOLDS 50-DAY LINE -- SMALL CAPS LEAD ON THE UPSIDE -- RISING BOND YIELDS KEEP BANKS AND INSURANCE STOCKS RISING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF CHART SUPPORT... Reports of a compromise between the Germans and Greeks to prevent a default later this month appears to be contributing to a strong global stock rally. European stocks are up 2% on average. U.S. stocks are having a strong day of their own....
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Only One of the Nine Sector SPDRs is up this Month
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Eight of the nine sector SPDRs are down month-to-date and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is also down (as of the 9-June close). One sector, however, is bucking the trend with a small gain. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is up around a half percent and easily outperforming the...
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SPY Downtrend Gets Oversold - IWM Triangulates
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Trading was rather quiet on Tuesday as the S&P 500 dipped in early trading, rebounded into positive territory by noon and then traded flat. The major index ETFs finished flat with fractional losses in IWM (-.30%) and SPY (-.01%). The sectors were mixed with small gains...
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New Intermediate-Term Neutral Signal on the Dow Industrials
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
A subscriber recently wrote to me questioning why I had written and changed the signal on the $SPX Scoreboard to neutral yesterday, but it wasn't on the most recent DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary. This is because DecisionPoint timing signals that are tracked by the professional publication, Timer Digest,...
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WEBINAR DETAILS, LARGE-CAPS WEAKEN, SMALL-CAPS HANG TOUGHER, $NDX AND $SPX BREADTH BREAKS, SECTOR BREADTH LINES TURN MIXED, KEY EQUAL-WEIGHT SECTORS HOLD SUPPORT, SCANNING FOR YEAR-TO-DATE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEBINAR RECORDING AND TIMELINE... The charts and commentary below come from the webinar recording. Note that not all webinar charts are included. Overall, the market remains boring on the outside and mixed up on the inside. The S&P 500 is flat for the year, but some key sectors...
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Steepening Yield Curve Says Buy These 3 Banks
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The ten year treasury yield has surged from 1.65% to 2.40% since February 1st so it should be no surprise that the Dow Jones U.S. Bank Index ($DJUSBK) has risen more than 14% during that same span. From a sector perspective, the consumer discretionary (XLY) space is...
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Sector Balance Tilts to the Bears - IWM Holds Up
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks opened weak and remained weak as the S&P 500 extended its two week slide. This slide started with the gap down on Tuesday, May 26th, the day after Memorial Day. Tech stocks led the way lower as QQQ lost around 1%. Small-caps held up relatively well as...
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What Are The Implications Of Rising World Interest Rates?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* -World Bond Index completes a major top.
* -US short-term bonds on the verge of a breakout.
* -Stocks now being threatened by rising rates.
World Bond Index
Global bond markets have really been taking it on the chin recently without that usual push they get from rising commodity prices. Monetary policy...
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Time Warner and Eastman Chemical Lead SCTR Gainers
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Chartists looking for the "relative strength" movers and shakers of the day can focus on the stocks and ETFs with the biggest changes in their StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). Small tables can be found in the bottom half of the home page and full listings can be found...
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USO TRACKING ERROR, LIGHT CRUDE AND BRENT FORM FLAGS, XES TESTS BREAK, FIVE HORSEMEN OF TECH, FB GETS BREAKOUT, GOOGLE HOLDS BREAKOUT AND AIRLINES WEIGH ON PEJ
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USO AND THE LONG-TERM TRACKING ERROR ... Oil surged at the end of May, but fell back last week and remains in a short-term downtrend. For a different perspective, I am going to analyze the August futures contracts for Light Crude and Brent Crude. The USO Oil Fund (USO) and US...
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Market Remains Very Mixed - Small-Caps and Mid-Caps Lead Though
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mixed most of the week and the major index ETFs finished mixed. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged lower, while the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM), S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) and S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) closed modestly higher...
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Fun With Current Charts, Wyckoff Style
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
Accumulation, Markup, Distribution and Markdown are the four basic stages of the Wyckoff Cycle. Prior posts have been focused on the primary phases of Accumulation. There is still more to do, but let’s take a break and explore the current market circumstances, which are very interesting. Consider this an...
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PNC Financial Services (PNC) Makes Bullish Breakout
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Money is rotating towards financial stocks as the market prepares for what appears will be Fed tightening later in 2015 into 2016. Higher yields on treasuries and a steepening yield curve generally increase net interest margin, the key metric in bank earnings. So traders are using this fundamental development to...
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ETF Top 5 Index Accelerating Downward
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
In the late-1990s I developed the ETF Top 5 Index (!SPWTOP5), which tracked the top five ranked ETFs (by PMO value) from our Tracker list of 100 ETFs. My original intention was to exploit the upward momentum of the ETFs with the highest PMO readings, presumably the strongest in the...
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Scanning with SCTRs for Fun and Profit!
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
The markets continue to lose momentum and carve out toppish type patterns on the main index charts. We, on the other hand, continue to crank out webinars with great commentary and content for chartists like yourself. Have you seen any of our recent ones? No? Good news!...
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DP Scoreboards Detect Market Deterioration
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
If you haven't checked out the new DP Scoreboard in the DP Chart Gallery, I highly recommend you click over there soon. In fact, here is an article I wrote about the Scoreboard and how the signals are determined right here. For those of you who are very...
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Money Rotates To Financials, Is Consumer Finance Next?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
A solid labor market had bond traders heading for the exits on Friday and that extended the recent surge in treasury yields. The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) closed at its highest level since early October and that has many traders heading for the financial sector. While the financial ETF...
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Dow and S&P 500 Lose Ground While Nasdaq Holds Firm
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. stocks lost ground during the week, but not enough to do any serious chart damage. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling to the lowest level in a month and sliding below its 50-day moving average (in rising volume). But the Dow has yet to break a rising...
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Strong Fundamentals + Strong Charts = Strong Results
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
It seems like an easy enough concept to grasp. If a company has strong fundamentals (earnings) plus a strong chart (technicals) it should make a stock a strong reward to risk trading candidate. It turns out it does.
As part of Invested Central we provide a service that zeroes in...
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DOW AND S&P 500 LOSE GROUND WHILE NASDAQ HOLDS FIRM -- STRONG JOBS REPORT AND BOUNCING DOLLAR BOOST SMALL CAPS -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES TO EIGHT-MONTH HIGH AND BREAKS DOWNTREND LINE -- 2-YEAR YIELD NEARS FOUR YEAR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND S&P 500 SLIP WHILE NASDAQ HOLDS FIRM... U.S. stocks lost ground during the week, but not enough to do any serious chart damage. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling to the lowest level in a month and sliding below its 50-day moving average (in...
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Should the Stock Market Worry about Rising Rates?
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There have been four big surges in the 10-year Treasury Yield since the bull market for the S&P 500 began in 2009. These big moves certainly sent shock waves through the bond market, but the stock market was not rattled because the S&P 500 produced double...
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Equities likely to out-perform (government) bonds.
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the Relative Rotation Graph holding a number of Asset Class ETFs in comparison to the Vanguard Balanced Index fund, the opposite moves of commodities and REITs continue to attract attention.
Initial observations
The opposite moves in Commodities (DJP), heading higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis at positive relative momentum,...
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MACD HOLDS FOR IWM, QQQ FORMS CUP-HANDLE, FINANCE LEADS SMALL-CAPS, BROKERS LEAD FINANCE, TREASURY YIELDS SURGE, BUT DOES IT MATTER?, YIELD CURVE STEEPENS FURTHER, GOLD AND PALLADIUM BREAK DOWN, MINERS FOLLOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MACD HOLDS BULLISH FOR IWM... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) exceeding the late May high this week and keeping the uptrend alive. Even though IWM has yet to exceed its April highs, the chart is more bullish than bearish right now....
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Healthcare Stocks Are Vulnerable to Weakness Ahead
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Okay, I'm being a bit dramatic with this title because I'm not ready to throw the towel in on this bull market. But there are clearly warning signs technically that the next bout of rotation in the stock market could negatively affect the healthcare sector. As...
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The Vincent van Gogh Trading Toolkit - Refurbished
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
This popular blog was first published over three years ago. I thought that a timely update was called for. You’ll see that the Equity Chartstyle has been significantly revised and I have aded a Mutual Fund Chartstyle as well.
I spent a couple of hours this past Saturday at...
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