…Or is your measuring stick just too short? If you are starting to feel that the market really only goes up and that the risk of being invested for the long term is small, you probably need a short refresher course on the equity markets. Don’t feel bad, failing... READ MORE
Stocks just couldn't bear the pressure any longer and sold off on Thursday. The S&P 500 opened weak and finished weak for a .86% decline on the day. Overall, the decline is not that big and the index is still less than 2% from an all... READ MORE
In my last article, I explained how I set up StockCharts.com Technical Alerts to email me when any Trend Model or Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) signal changes occur. I started it so that I could keep our DP Scoreboard up to date, but I'm finding it to... READ MORE
* -Brokers experience a bearish two bar reversal. * -Dollar diffusion indicator ticks up for the first time in many weeks. * -Gold in dollars experiencing a short-term breakdown. * -Gold in yen and euro at crucial support levels. US Equities The market has been working its way irregularly higher over the last few... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS SHOW NEW WEAKNESS... The global stock market rally is running into trouble. That can be seen more clearly in foreign markets. Chart 1 shows MSCI EAFE iShares (EFA) falling below its 50-day average after backing off from overhead resistance formed last June. Its daily MACD lines (top of... READ MORE
JP Morgan downgraded Verizon (VZ) this morning, instead choosing AT&T (T) and that has put pressure on VZ in the early going. Thus far, buyers have emerged and VZ has risen off its opening gap lower. Technically, VZ is continuing its downtrend that it started just over a... READ MORE
Stocks chopped around again on Wednesday, but managed to hold their early gains and close positive. The S&P 500 surged to 2121 in the first hour, fell back to 2112 around lunchtime and then finished at 2114 for a small gain. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS REACH NEW 2015 HIGH... The surge in bond yields that started a month ago is accelerating to the upside. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield climbing to the highest level since last November. Chart 2 shows the 30-Year T-Bond Yield doing the same. The driving force... READ MORE
If you know one thing about me, you should know that I'm a stock market historian. I've logged every day's S&P 500 activity onto an Excel spreadsheet since 1950. If there's a trend, I can tell you about it. So... READ MORE
May was a strong month for big tech stocks, small caps and mid caps. It was such a big month that the Russell 2000 iShares, S&P SmallCap iShares and S&P MidCap SPDR are in the top third of the SCTR table below. Notice that the Russell... READ MORE
Stocks chopped around again on Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling to 2100 on the open, bouncing back to 2117 in the early afternoon and settling around 2110 by the close. Overall, the major index ETFs ended the day mixed. DIA and QQQ edged lower, while IWM and... READ MORE
What are the conditions that need to be in place prior to a long and sustained rally in a stock? That is an important question to ask because it is not a random accident when a stock rises bigger, better and faster compared to most other stocks. When large, informed... READ MORE
I'm alerted whenever there is a Short-Term Trend Model signal change on the major indexes. In fact, I downloaded the "StockCharts Essentials" ChartPack and I run my alerts on the "1010 Essential Major Market Indexes" ChartList in particular. The alert scan is included below:... READ MORE
50% OF S&P 500 REMAINS IN HOLDING PATTERN... The following charts and brief commentary come from Click here for Tuesday's webinar. The broader market continues to grind higher and we can point the finger at four sectors. Technology and healthcare are doing their part for the... READ MORE
Stocks chopped around on Monday with the S&P 500 trading in an 18 point range the entire day. The major index ETFs finished with small gains led by the Russell MicroCap iShares (+.40%). The sectors were mixed with energy, materials and consumer staples showing some weakness. Healthcare, industrials... READ MORE
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) is showing some improvement in relative performance with a move from the improving quadrant to the leading quadrant over the last few days. The image below shows a daily Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) with ten industry group ETFs and the Equal-Weight S&P 500... READ MORE
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE REMAINS BULLISH FOR IWM ... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) has been lagging the broader market since mid April, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish. Chart 1 shows IWM with four bullish factors and two bearish factors at work. Working from... READ MORE
Stocks were all over the place last week. The S&P 500 plunged on Tuesday, rebounded on Wednesday and fell back on Thursday-Friday. For the week, the major index ETFs ended lower by around 1%. All sectors were lower with energy and industrials leading the way down. The healthcare... READ MORE
Just a couple days after finally clearing two month resistance at 1950, the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index closed above 2000 for the first time in 14 years late last week. Semiconductors tend to move quickly in both directions so given the breakout, I'd be looking for... READ MORE
Last week I pointed out in my article that the SPY price chart had a bearish rising wedge pattern, and that there were negative divergences on various medium-term indicator charts. This week we can see that the rising wedge remains intact, but the expectation is that it will resolve to... READ MORE
DOW JONES COMPOSITE AVERAGE CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE ... I've been writing about the growing negative divergence between the transportation and industrial stocks which has gotten even worse. The Dow Transports fell -2.1% during the week and ended at the lowest level in seven months. It was just... READ MORE
Everyone is bandying around the term, "Sell in May, Go Away". But how true is it? Given we are seeing bearish patterns on the SPY, overhead resistance has held on strongly, long-term indicators are bearish and it's the end of May; it makes sense that the... READ MORE
S&P 500 CONTINUES TO GRIND HIGHER... Link for today's video. Price action has been rather boring in the major index ETFs since March, but there is a clear upward bias in price action and the trends remain up. Chart 1 shows the Equal-Weight S&P... READ MORE
Apple (AAPL) is more than a $750 billion market cap company, by far the largest on the NASDAQ. Therefore, AAPL's price performance will have a rather significant impact on the overall performance of the NASDAQ as the NASDAQ is a market cap weighted index. In other words, AAPL&... READ MORE
Art, history and life can parallel investing. This blog is my continuation from last week’s Part I where I encouraged readers to be open to a sort of borderless-type of thinking. To be willing to challenge oneself to look backwards as an aid to moving forwards in the investment... READ MORE
Stocks sank on the open, but quickly firmed and rebounded somewhat in the afternoon. For the day, the major index ETFs finished fractionally lower, but the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) bucked a little with a fractional gain. The sectors were mostly lower with energy and industrials leading the... READ MORE
ABIOMED (ABMD) has fallen much of the past three weeks after surging on better-than-expected quarterly earnings results on May 5th. ABMD posted revenues of 67.56 million in its latest quarter, easily surpassing Wall Street forecasts of 62.33 million. In addition, ABMD's EPS trounced estimates, .28 vs.... READ MORE
How many times have you bought something spontaneously, then after you got home regretted the decision? Most spontaneous decisions are based totally upon the emotion at the moment; a snap decision based upon a quick and often faulty evaluation. Examples might be: the big television you bought for the bedroom... READ MORE
Stocks swooned on Tuesday and then recovered most of their losses on Wednesday. Techs led the way as the Technology SPDR (XLK) hit a new high and QQQ closed at a new closing high. Semiconductors led the rebound as the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) surged over 3% and hit a new... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS NEED SOME HELP FROM THE TRANSPORTS... I remain concerned about the negative divergence between the Dow Industrials (black bars) and the Dow Transports (red bars). The discrepancy between the two Dow Averages is the biggest in three years. That may not pull the Industrials lower, but it may prevent... READ MORE
Gaps are strange creatures and knowing what to do after one is difficult because emotion does crazy things to our patience and discipline. Gaps 101 tells us that most gaps fill. What does that mean? Well, if ABC company closed yesterday at 10.00 and opened today at 11.00,... READ MORE
The Palladium ETF (PALL) caught my eye on Tuesday because it held up quite well when other metals were getting hit hard. Gold was down around 1.5%, while platinum and silver fell around 2%. PALL was down just .26% and the ETF is edging higher in early trading on... READ MORE
Stocks fell with selling pressure across the board. The major index ETFs were all down around 1% and the declines were pretty even. All sector SPDRs and equal-weight sector ETFs were down. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (-.71%) and the Utilities SPDR (-.63%) were down the least and held... READ MORE
The 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrials index are more or less evenly spread out over the Relative Rotation Graph below. There is a group of stocks that has entered the leading quadrant a few weeks ago and which are establishing solid relative up-trends including the stocks... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF falls to important support. * Key bond confidence indicator at a key level. * Dollar offering stronger signals that the correction is over. Global Stocks A couple of weeks ago I drew your attention to the $61 area on the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, as I felt... READ MORE
A downtrend occurs when the supply (of shares) is greater than the demand. The float of a stock is the total number of shares owned by investors and traders in the marketplace. With the exception of corporate buybacks and secondary offerings, the float of a stock is relatively constant and... READ MORE
MAJOR INDEX ETFS PULLBACK WITHIN UPTRENDS... Link for today's video. Stocks came under selling pressure on Tuesday with small-caps, mid-caps and large-techs leading the way. At this point, today's decline is just a little noise within a bigger uptrend. The stock market has been working its... READ MORE
We gave our webinar viewers a sneak peek at the new scoreboard and now it is LIVE! A picture of the SPX scoreboard is below: For members, there is a drop-down menu on the side where you can switch between the NDX, OEX and DJIA. You'll find the... READ MORE
The S&P 500 finished the week with a gain, but was hit with selling pressure in the final hour on Friday. For the week, the index surged on Monday and then traded flat from Tuesday to Friday. Small-caps led Friday's pullback as the Russell 2000 iShares... READ MORE
One of the things I have regularly stressed is the reliability of rising wedge formations, meaning that they have a high likelihood of breaking down. Currently, SPY has a pronounced rising wedge that has been forming over the last six months or so, as seen on the chart below. The... READ MORE