Stocks surged in early trading, worked their way lower in mid morning and then plunged after lunch. With a small rebound in the final hour, the net losses were reduced and the major index ETFs closed fractionally lower. The Russell 2000 held up the best and closed fractionally higher. Energy,... READ MORE
KEEPING YOUR EYE ON THE TREND... Link for today's video. These are the charts and commentary from Tuesday's Webinar (13-January). Trading has turned choppy in the major index ETFs since mid November, but sideways price action is not enough to derail the bigger uptrends. There are... READ MORE
Here is the latest "Preview" chapter update from my upcoming book "The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators - Second Edition" I am in the process of re-writing the original version using charts from StockCharts.com. As I complete a chapter (or most of a chapter)... READ MORE
Stocks opened weak with a sharp decline in the first 30 minutes and then traded flat the rest of the day. Even though stocks managed to firm after early weakness, buyers held back and the major index ETFs closed with modest losses. Oil got the blame again as crude fell... READ MORE
GOLD: As of 1/12/2015 Gold is on a Trend Model BUY signal. The LT Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a SELL signal as of 2/15/2013, so our long-term posture is bearish. The big news for gold is that for the first time... READ MORE
TRACKING 10 KEY INDUSTRY GROUP ETF'S... Link for today's video. PerfChart 1 shows year-to-date performance for 10 ETFs that represent different groups in the stock market. I normally use the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services SPDR (XES) and the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) on... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF getting closer to completing a top. * Gold in euro and yen build on recent breakouts. * Dollar denominated gold close to an upside breakout. US Equities On Friday the S & P Composite ($SPX) experienced the second day of a dark cloud cover formation, a bearish candlestick pattern.... READ MORE
The sector PerfChart shows year-to-date performance for the nine sector SPDRs and SPY. Three sectors are up, six are down and SPY is down fractionally. The HealthCare SPDR (XLV) was the second best performing sector in 2014 and it is the best performing sector so far this year. The Energy... READ MORE
It was a pretty wild week as stocks plunged Monday-Tuesday, surged Wednesday-Thursday and fell back on Friday. After all the pushing and shoving, the major index ETFs ended with small losses for the week. Well, IWM lost 1.14%, which is a modest loss. Energy, industrials and finance weighed on... READ MORE
Here's the DecisionPoint weekly view of the current market situation. After the recent bounce, price took a break and backed off today. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market... READ MORE
MID-CAP SPDR TURNS CHOPPY, BUT MAINTAINS DIRECTIONAL BIAS... Link for today's video. Establishing support and resistance levels for indices and ETFs with dozens of stocks is a challenge because there are so many moving parts (stocks). Instead of exact support-resistance levels based on one chart feature, I prefer... READ MORE
Every January, investors throughout the world pledge to improve themselves and their financial management efforts. Only a select few truly succeed in these eager commitments. Let this be your nudge to join the ranks of those select few. In past years, I’ve often fallen into the trap of making... READ MORE
Microsoft (MSFT) sprang to life with a harami on Tuesday-Wednesday and a gap up on Thursday. This gap confirmed the harami and should be considered bullish as long as it holds. A move back below 46 would fill the gap and negate this reversal. Note that the long-term trend is... READ MORE
It is just like mid December as SPY, IWM and QQQ fell sharply and then suddenly reversed with a two-day surge. As with mid December, traders not getting in before the gap are now stuck wondering how to play this reversal, especially with the employment report on deck this morning.... READ MORE
I thought our subscribers might appreciate a quick update on why we missed our DP Daily Update in the DP Reports blog for the first time since we started it on the old DecisionPoint website. Yesterday morning, Carl went in for triple bypass surgery. Well, leave it to Carl to... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES SCORE BIG GAINS... Global stocks are experiencing a nice bounce today with major U.S. stock indexes experiencing gains of nearly 2%. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials climbing well above its 50-day average after holding above chart support at its mid-December low. Chart 2 shows a similar... READ MORE
It's time to check the world again. The Relative Rotation Graph below shows the relative positions and movement of international equity markets against the FTSE All World index. Please note that I am using $ ticker symbols for the actual indices and not the ETFs to avoid the currency... READ MORE
Stocks finally got an oversold bounce and even closed strong. Most of the bounce occurred with a morning pop, but SPY, IWM and QQQ managed to add to these early gains. In particular, IWM got a late surge and closed near the high of the day. SPY and QQQ closed... READ MORE
LONGER RANGE VIEW OF CRUDE OIL ... The plunging price of oil is driving financial trends all over the world. Plunging oil is hurting energy companies that produce that commodity, as well as countries that are energy exporters. In addition, its deflationary effect is pulling global bond yields lower and contributing... READ MORE
StockCharts users can view the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) tables on the home page and even focus on the big movers by clicking the "top up" tab. I noticed Molson Coors (TAP) with a big move and interesting chart. The stock, which is part of the consumer staples... READ MORE
Stocks took it on the chin again with small-caps leading the way lower. IWM fell 1.73%, QQQ lost 1.34% and SPY declined .94%. All three are down over 4% the last five days and short-term oversold. It was clearly a risk off day as the 20+ YR T-Bond... READ MORE
SPY AND DIA CORRECT WITHIN WELL DEFINED UPTRENDS... Stocks were hit with intense selling pressure over the last few days, but these declines have yet to turn key breadth indicators bearish or even test major support levels. Today we will look at three major index charts, some key breadth charts,... READ MORE
Stocks ended the year weak and started the year weak with Greece and oil getting most of the blame. Light Crude fell below $50 and energy stocks got hammered. European stocks plunged on fears of a Greek exit, and Japan followed suit today with a 3% decline. I am not... READ MORE
* Much expected Santa Rally did not happen and that’s bearish. * MSCI Europe Australia Far East ETF right on the brink of a major breakdown. * Small caps may have experienced a false upside breakout. * Chinese ETF breaks out big time on both an absolute and relative basis. In my mid-December... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint ultra-short-term indicator suite consists of the Climactic Volume Indicator (CVI), Participation Index (PI) and Net Breadth Indicators. This indicator set exploded with very negative climactic readings today. When we see these "spikes" or "climaxes", we try to determine whether they are initiation or exhaustion... READ MORE
For the last couple of decades I have classified myself as a trend follower. Mind you, this is not market timing. Market timing involves guessing at tops and bottoms. A trend follower will NEVER get in at the bottom or out at the top. It depends on how quickly his/... READ MORE
OIL SINKS TO YET ANOTHER NEW LOW... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the USO Oil Fund (USO) falling some 3% on Monday and hitting yet another new low. The pattern since August has been decline, consolidate, break down and repeat. Oil has not really bounced the... READ MORE
Standard & Poors has published preliminary S&P 500 results for the third quarter of 2014. Here is an excerpt from the DP Overview of Market Fundamentals report, which is available daily in the DP Reports Blog. We can see that, while the P/E is very close to... READ MORE
Stocks got the Santa Claus rally, but it fizzled after Christmas and selling pressure took hold over the last three trading days. After a big advance from 17 to 29 December, the stock market was entitled to a pullback. The major index ETFs are now trading in big support zones... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Happy 2015! All signs point to 2015 being a very interesting year for the stock market. The long-term rally that we've had since the lows of 2009 can't continue forever, can it? Regardless of your opinion on that question, remember that StockCharts.com... READ MORE
It's easy to follow the crowd and buy what keeps going higher. But generally larger gains can be found in healthy areas of the market where we've seen months of consolidation, awaiting that next breakout. As an example, it wasn't that long ago that... READ MORE
One of the biggest concerns for 2015 is the prospect for higher interest rates in the U.S. While it's true that the Fed may start to hike rates later in the year, that doesn't mean that bond yields will rise very much. The Fed controls... READ MORE
THERE IS AN 18-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE ... My 2013 book entitled "Trading With Intermarket Analysis" described the existence of an 18-year real estate cycle. In other words, real estate tends to peak about every 18 years. This reliable pattern has been traced back to the 1800s. Credit for... READ MORE
A month ago in ChartWatchers I wrote about the bullish seasonal pattern for small-caps and featured a big flag pattern on the chart for the Russell 2000 ETF. Trading turned volatile in mid December, but the bullish seasonal pattern held up and the Santa Claus rally ultimately materialized. The Russell... READ MORE
Now that 2014 has drawn to a close, analysts are reviewing history and hoping to prognosticate about 2015. I'd like to review some of the DecisionPoint Trend Model charts for not just the S&P 500 (SPY), but also for the dollar, gold, oil, commodities and bonds.... READ MORE
Despite the low volume of holiday trading, there was still a distinct price top that formed during the past two weeks. An ultra-short-term positive is that price broke out from overhead resistance that had formed starting Wednesday. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Daily Update is to quickly review the day&... READ MORE
The S&P 500 took a dip on the last trading day of 2014, but several home construction and retail stocks bucked the selling pressure. Chartists can easily separate the winners and losers using the Sector Market Carpet. The image below focuses on the cyclicals (consumer discretionary) sector and... READ MORE
As we close out 2014 and prepare to toast in the New Year, I thought it would be interesting to research one of the companies that produces champagne. Turns out one of the largest producers of champagne and other alcoholic beverages is LVMH - Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY). As... READ MORE
* Dollar based gold is in a bear market. * Yen and euro denominated gold are in primary bull markets. * Gold shares complete a massive top. Last week we reviewed the technical picture of the major currencies. This week it is the turn of the precious metals because the finely balanced technical... READ MORE
BRIC DIVERGENCE... The year 2014 saw very diverging trends among the world's largest emerging market stocks. The lines in Chart 1 show those diverging trends among the four BRIC countries that are Brazil, Russia, India, and China. I'm using exchange traded funds here because they take... READ MORE