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RETAIL ETF'S CONTINUE TO LEAD -- APPAREL AND SPECIALTY GROUPS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SECTOR SUMMARY DEMO -- RS LINES HIT NEW HIGHS FOR BBBY, DSW AND PLCE -- RESTAURANT INDEX PULLS BACK AFTER NEW HIGH -- TXRH AND BWLD LEAD RESTAURANT GROUP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETAIL ETF'S CONTINUE TO LEAD ... Link for today's video. John Murphy pointed out the negative correlation between retail stocks and the price of oil in early December. In short, retail stocks rose sharply as the price of oil fell sharply. This theme continues to play out...
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IWM Tests Support and Shows Relative Strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks fell sharply last week as the S&P 500 suffered its largest weekly decline since May 2012. This was also the fifth weekly decline greater than 2.5% this year. Note that the prior four declines did not derail the bull market because the S&P 500...
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OIL PLUNGES BELOW $60 ON FORECAST FOR LOWER DEMAND -- OIL EXPORTERS CONTINUE TO LEAD GLOBAL STOCK DECLINE -- RUSSIAN WEAKNESS HURTS EUROPE -- LATIN AMERICA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES TO NEW LOWS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IEA CUTS OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN... Crude oil can't catch a break. Plunging oil prices over the past few months have been attributed mainly to increasing supplies, largely resulting in the shale revolution in the U.S. This week, however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast...
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DP Weekly Update: Bad Week for Stocks and Oil - December 12, 2014
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The market opened down today and quickly took out Wednesday's lows. There was an attempt at consolidation, but it finally broke down to close very near the lows for the day. SPY has declined about -3.8% from the all-time high reached last week.
The purpose of the...
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USING BREADTH INDICATORS FOR SHORT-TERM SIGNALS -- QQQ CORRECTION TARGET -- AROONS GO PARALLEL ON IWM CHART -- BOND MARKET SHOWS RISK AVERSION -- MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKS DOWN -- GOLD MINERS ETF STALLS AFTER BOUNCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USING BREADTH INDICATORS FOR SHORT-TERM SIGNALS... Link for today's video. The economic news has been pretty good lately, but stocks came under selling pressure and did not act very well. First, I should note that I am not that interested in the news per se. Instead, I am...
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Academics Prove that Trading the Markets Contributes to Your Longevity
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Yes, the fountain of youth really does exist, and academic research is increasingly proving it to be found amidst your investment portfolio. A growing body of scholarly research shows that, in many ways, life can get better as we get older and being an active investor can contribute in significant...
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Good News Fails to Inspire Stocks - GLD Forms a Bull Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks got good news with the employment report last Friday and the bounce was rather tepid. Stocks got more good news with retail sales on Thursday, but failed to hold the bounce. The inability to rise in the face of good news is negative. Perhaps the stock market is starting...
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LinkedIn Tests Breakout and Gap Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
LinkedIn broke out and surged to a new high in early November, and then corrected the last five weeks with a falling channel. This channel retraced 62% of the prior surge and almost filled the gap, but didn't. Throw in support from broken resistance in the 205 area,...
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A Key Test for SPY and QQQ - Plus CVT, MBLY, RF, STLD
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There are plenty of reasons for Wednesday's sell off: plunging oil, weakness in junk bonds, bank exposure to the energy sector, Greek drama and the usual Euro stuff. One thing was clear: there were more sellers than buyers on Wednesday. I do not know the reasons behind every...
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Two Benchmarks that will Likely Signal the Direction of the Next Major Equity Move
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Stocks likely to resume their downtrend vis a vis bonds.
* Emerging Markets ETF resting on a key trend line.
* Different bond maturities moving in different directions.
US Equities
The battle lines are being drawn for the next major move in the equity market. For the NYSE Composite ($NYA) those lines...
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CANADA TUMBLES ON FALLING OIL ALONG WITH MEXICO -- EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES HIT NINE-MONTH LOW -- ENERGY SECTOR TUMBLES AGAIN -- ENERGY SELLING HERE AND ABROAD SPILLS OVER TO BROADER MARKET -- S&P 500 SUFFERS SHORT-TERM DOWNTURN--
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FOREIGNS SHARES ARE FALLING ... Foreign shares are falling today, especially those that export oil. Chart 1 shows the Toronto $TSX Composite Index tumbling nearly -2.4% and nearing a test of its October low. The Canada/SPX ratio (solid line) is falling even faster. Emerging markets tied to oil are...
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Small Caps are Starting to Outperform
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Small-caps are starting to live up to their reputation for outperformance in December. Even though the month is far from finished, the PerfChart below shows the Russell 2000 and the S&P Small-Cap 600 with 1+ percent gains so far. In contrast, the other seven indices are actually down...
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IWM Challenges Again - Small-Cap Breadth Surges
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The major index ETFs were mixed on Tuesday, but the leadership role flipped in favor of small-caps. DIA, SPY and QQQ moved lower, while IWM and IJR edged higher. Moreover, small-caps opened weak with the rest of the market and came roaring back once participants figured out that most small-caps...
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Gold Breaks Out
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
As of 8/21/2014 Gold has been on a DecisionPoint Intermediate-termTrend Model SELL signal. Reason being that the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA on 8/21/14 while the 50-EMA was below the 200-EMA. Because the 50-EMA moved below the 200-EMA, the DecisionPoint Long-TermTrend Model moved to a SELL...
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SMALL-CAPS SURGE TO KEEP THE FLAG ALIVE -- S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 LEAD HIGH-LOW INDICATORS -- HINDENBURG OMEN TRIGGERS -- FINANCE, HEALTHCARE AND UTILITIES LEAD SECTOR HIGH-LOW PERCENT -- THREE KEY INDUSTRY GROUP ETFS MAKING NEW HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS SURGE TO KEEP THE FLAG ALIVE... Link for today's Webinar video. The brief commentary and charts are from today's webinar. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 bouncing off its first support zone today. Chart 2 shows the S&P MidCap 400 consolidating...
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IWM Swings To Support - GLD Gets a Wedge Break - Plus AWI, BWA, CBS, SCCO
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved lower on Monday with small-caps and energy shares leading the way. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) declined over 1% and the SmallCap Energy ETF (PSCE) declined over 7%. Even though the energy sector accounts for just 3.5% of IWM, an oversize decline like 7.6% will definitely...
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IWM AND IJR FLY THE FLAG AT HALF MAST -- SMALL-CAP SECTORS TAKE THE LEAD -- SMALLCAP FINANCIALS ETF BREAKS FLAG TREND LINE -- INTERNET LEADERS AND LAGGARDS -- INTERNET ETF STALLS OUT -- FACEBOOK FORMS A BIG CONSOLIDATION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IWM AND IJR FLY THE FLAG AT HALF MAST ... Programming Note: I will be doing a Webinar tomorrow at 1PM ET in place of the Market Message and video. You can register here. With a little help from financial services, the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) had its best week since...
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IWM Extends Consolidation - Watching the Wedge in GLD
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks got a big dose of good news on Friday as non-farm payrolls added over 300,000 for the second time this year. The employment report capped off a strong week for economic indicators. Despite a positive news week, stocks were quite flat and Friday's gains were contained....
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CVX lacking (relative) fuel
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Below is the weekly Relative Rotation Graph holding the constituents of the Dow Jones Industrials index. My starting point to have a look at the relative positioning and movements of its components.
Many observations can be made off of this chart but I have circled a few that I want...
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Global Equity Market Roundup
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* USA still leading the way on the upside.
* Russian and Mexican ETF’s break to the downside.
* EEM components offering a mixed picture.
* The two sides of Japan.
International Equities
With the US, German, Japanese, Indian, New Zealand, Pakistani and several other markets joining the US in new all-time high...
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German DAX Closes at Record High, US Dollar Index Hits Eight-Year High
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
German stocks sold off Thursday after the ECB delayed further monetary easing until the first quarter. Later reports that more monetary stimulus might come as early as January helped boost European stocks which rallied sharply on Friday. Chart 1 shows the German DAX Composite Index jumping 2.4% on Friday...
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Small Caps Ready to Make a December Run?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
As a student of stock market history, I'm often astonished by historical facts about market performance. December is generally a very solid month for equities and no index benefits more from this seasonal bullishness than the Russell 2000. Since 1987, the Russell 2000 has risen 24 of 27...
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How to Take Advantage of StockCharts.com's Holiday Specials!
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
Well, it is December now and the stock market is STILL in record territory! The rally that started way back in October 2011 continues to roll on, seemingly without a care in the world. Skip on down to the articles that follow mine for more information and...
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GERMAN DAX HITS RECORD HIGH AS EUROPE STRENGTHENS -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX RECORDS EIGHT-YEAR HIGH -- SPREAD BETWEEN US AND GERMAN BOND YIELD WIDENS -- U.S. TWO-YEAR YIELD HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH ON STONG JOBS REPORT -- FINANCIALS SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GERMAN DAX CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH ... German stocks sold off Thursday after the ECB delayed further monetary easing until the first quarter. Later reports that more monetary stimulus might come as early as January helped boost European stocks which rallied sharply on Friday. Chart 1 shows the German DAX Composite...
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Small-caps Underperform Despite December Seasonal Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There are two bullish seasonal patterns at work right now. First, stocks have shown a strong tendency to advance in December. Second, small-caps have shown a strong tendency to outperform large-caps in December. Over the last twenty years, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time and...
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Gold Miners: How Low Can They Go?
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
I wrote a blog article some time back that questioned whether the Gold Miners stocks had finally hit rock bottom. I concluded that it was a good set-up for a bottom but there was still plenty of room for decline before they hit all-time lows. The stocks in the Gold...
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DP Weekly Update: Bearish Wedges
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Yesterday I was able to annotate very short-term trend lines on the 10-minute bar chart. A bearish ascending wedge is visible and while price broke below in the 20 minutes of trading it did manage to close above. I don't think that this is the execution of this...
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SECTOR WEIGHTINGS IN THE S&P 500 -- KEY SECTORS LEAD WITH STRONG BREADTH -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR GETS BIG REBOUND -- FOUR BANKS WITH BREAKOUT MOVES -- STRONG JOBS NUMBER HITS EURO, BONDS AND GOLD -- ISM INDICES, AUTO SALES AND NON-FARM PAYROLLS COME IN BIG
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR WEIGHTINGS IN THE S&P 500 ... Link for today's video. The four most important sector SPDRs are strong and this supports the long-term uptrend in the large-cap indices ($SPX, $NDX, $INDU). The consumer discretionary sector is the most economically sensitive sector with lots of retail oriented...
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Russell MicroCap iShares Goes for P&F Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Russell MicroCap iShares (IWC) is leading the market higher on Friday and breaking above a triangle trend line. The P&F chart shows the ETF surging in October and then consolidating in November. The red A marks the beginning of October and the red B marks the beginning...
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Why Successful Investors Embrace the Laws of Grouping
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Fish swim in schools. Birds fly in flocks. Humans follow grouping principles too. Gestalt psychologists describe these as the Laws of Grouping and the stock market most definitely acknowledges these laws at its core.
My own trading methodology leans heavily on these principles to such an extent that I actually...
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Stocks Stall in Uptrends - A Big Day for Treasury Bonds
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The market went into a risk-off mode on Thursday with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) losing .48% and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) surging .84% ahead of today's employment report. Even though the surge in Treasuries shows a certain flight to safety, I do not blame the...
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ECB INACTION CAUSES SELLING IN EUROPE -- OIL PRODUCERS LIKE CANADA SUFFER BIGGER LOSSES -- CANADIAN DOLLAR WEAKENS WITH OIL -- CHINA RALLY MAY FUELED BY FALLING OIL -- S&P 500 SUFFERS MINOR SETBACK FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ECB PUSHES MORE EASING INTO NEXT YEAR ... Mario Draghi announced today that the ECB would wait until the first quarter to consider additional monetary easing. That decision disappointed those who were hoping for quicker action. At the same time, he downgraded prospects for eurozone growth and inflation. Bond prices sold...
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Seasonality Tool Says 'Tis the Season
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There has been a lot of chatter about the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 in December, and it is bullish. StockCharts users do not need to rely on the chatter because they can chart seasonal patterns using our Seasonality Tool and see for themselves. The chart below...
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Three of Five AD Lines Hit New Highs - Plus ETFC, EXPE, FAST, HCBK, SCHW
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks continued higher on Wednesday with small-caps leading for the second day running. Seven of nine sector SPDRs were higher with industrials, energy and materials leading. Energy is getting an oversold bounce, while industrials are showing some leadership as XLI nears a 52-week high. Tech stocks were helped with strength...
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Bullish Seasonals and Cycles Should Push Stocks to Significant Highs in 2015..but will they?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Bullish NYSE percent has likely peaked out. Indicates market will become more selective.
* You can’t keep a good dollar down!
* Emerging market currency fund breaks down. EM are likely to follow.
US Equities
I have always said that trend trumps everything. By that I mean that however bad the...
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Small-Caps Bounce as Bonds Fall - UUP Hits New High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks rebounded with small-caps leading the way. SPY and QQQ finished with modest gains, while IWM jumped 1.2%. Despite one day of relative strength, small-caps still lag their large-cap brethren over the last few weeks. All nine sector SPDRs were up with finance, energy and healthcare leading. An oversold...
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Long-Term Indicator Tops Warn of Market Top
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
We have been watching intermediate- and long-term market conditions using our DecisionPoint indicator sets and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery. Longer-term indicators have been overbought for some time. But as you'll see, some of these indicators can hang out in overbought territory for awhile. The key is to see when...
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Broker-Dealer iShares Forms Classic Continuation Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) surged to the September high and then stalled with a three week consolidation. With a downward slope, this consolidation looks like a falling flag, which is a bullish continuation pattern. A breakout at 41 would signal a continuation higher and project a move to new highs....
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HEALTHCARE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD -- NOVO NORDISK AND BIOGEN BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- MATERIALS SPDR TESTS ITS BREAKOUT -- PALLADIUM OUTSHINES OTHER METALS -- PALLADIUM ETF HITS KEY JUNCTURE -- ENERGY ISSUES WEIGH ON HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEALTHCARE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD... Link for today's video. Healthcare remains one of the strongest sectors in the stock market as the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) hit a new high again on Tuesday. Chart 1 shows XLV surging some 18% from its October low and hitting a series of...
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Small-Caps Lead Pullback - Plus GILD and TMUS
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mostly lower on Monday with small-caps and mid-caps leading the decline. Large-caps held up relatively well with SPY losing just .69% on the day. Retail stocks suffered a black Friday hangover as the Retail SPDR (XRT) fell over 2%. The ETF, however, was up some 15% from its...
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