MEMBERS ONLY
HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS PLUNGE -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ETF HOLD THE GAP TO WARD OFF BEARISH PATTERN -- KEY BREADTH INDICATORS SURGE TO NEW HIGHS -- HIGH-LOW LINE HAS BEEN RISING SINCE LATE NOVEMBER -- RUSSELL 2000 OUT PACES S&P 100 WITH NEW HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS PLUNGE... Link for today's video. The Commerce Department reported that June housing starts plunged almost 10% to 836,000 and building permits fell over 6% to 911,000. Chart 1 shows Housing Starts ($$HSNGSTARTS) sinking to their lowest level in over six months....
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY Stalls Near May High as Raff Channel Marks Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Today is just like a Fed day because Chairman Bernanke begins his two day testimony before Congress. I would not expect any fireworks from his prepared testimony, but we could see markets react if there are any surprises during the question and answer session. Overall, major index ETFs remain in...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Animated GIF shows Apple at Make-or-Break Level within Trading Range
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The animated chart below shows Apple at a key resistance zone right now. A double bottom could be forming, but the stock is in a long-term downtrend and stalling in the middle of the three month range. A move above 435 would open the door for a double bottom resistance...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Stocks Remain Overbought as Earnings and Fed Heat Up
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Trading turned a bit mixed on Monday as stocks digested recent gains ahead of earnings and testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. This is a big week for earnings with Goldman Sachs, Coca-Cola and Yahoo! reporting on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are the biggest days though. Bank of America, IBM, Intel...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Charts of Interest: AMGN, DNDN, JBLU, PLCM, R
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AMGN Breaks Resistance with 7-day Advance.
PLCM Forms 11 month Base.
Plus DNDN, JBLU and R.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
A Momentum Breakout for the Uranium-Nuclear ETF
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Uranium-Nuclear ETF (NLR) caught a bid last week and broke resistance to forge a 52-week high. Notice that a series of rising troughs (green line) preceded this breakout. The indicator window shows MACD confirming strength with a 52-week high of its own.
Click this image for a live chart...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
IWM AND QQQ LEAD, BUT BECOME SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCE SECTORS OUTPERFORM -- SETTING FIRST SUPPORTS FOR XLF AND XLY -- IBM TESTS SUPPORT AHEAD OF EARNINGS REPORT -- INTEL BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE WITH GAP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IWM AND QQQ LEAD, BUT BECOME SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT ... Link for today's video. Stocks went on a tear the last three weeks with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the major index ETFs. It is quite positive to see these two groups leading...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Consumer Discretionary and Finance Sectors Lead Market Higher
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Good morning Wall Street! After a little sand and sun, I am back in the saddle and ready to tackle the markets. Stocks and oil are running with the bulls as global economic prospects improve. Treasuries extended their downtrends as non-farm payrolls continued to improve. Money moving out is Treasuries...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
What a Professional Investor Learned from 4 Professional Race Car Drivers
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
I just spent a couple of days in Utah at Ford’s Performance Racing School being tutored by four highly accomplished professional race car drivers. I enjoyed the role reversal – the teacher becomes the student. In the introductory classroom session, I asked what seemed on the surfaced to be a...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
GLOBAL STOCKS RALLY -- U.S. STOCK INDEXES NEAR OLD HIGH -- NASDAQ REACHES 13-YEAR HIGH -- BIG TECH LEADERS INCLUDE CISCO, KLAC, AND MICROSOFT -- DOLLAR DROP MAY GIVE BOUNCE TO OVERSOLD GOLD MARKET
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EAFE ISHARES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EMERGING MARKETS JUMP ... Yesterday's comments by Mr. Bernanke that the Fed was still in an easing mode gave a big lift to global stocks today, which has spilled over to the U.S. Chart 1, for example, shows EAFE iShares (EFA) trading...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
TRANSPORTS SURGE TO TWO-MONTH HIGH -- FEDEX AND UPS ARE LEADERS IN DELIVERY SERVICES -- TRUCKING STOCK CON-WAY HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH -- S&P 500 IS CHALLENGING MID-JUNE PEAK -- THE VIX BREAKS JUNE LOW WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHER STOCK PRICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW TRANSPORTS SURGES... According to Dow Theory, a necessary ingredient in a bull market is coincident gains in industrial and transportation stocks. And we appear to be getting just that. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials having cleared its 50-day average and nearing a test of its mid-June intra-day high...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
OIL SERVICE ETF BENEFITS FROM RISING OIL PRICE -- LEADERS INCLUDE BHI, NOV, AND RDC -- FRANCE AND GERMANY LEAD FOREIGN STOCK REBOUND -- RETAILERS LEAD CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR TO NEW HIGHS -- AMAZON.COM BREAKS OUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OIL SERVICE STOCKS RALLY ... Oil service stocks are finally showing some bounce. The main reason for that was last week's upside breakout in crude oil to the highest level in fourteen months. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Market Vectors Oil Services (OIH) moving up toward...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Utilities SPDR Establishes Resistance with Consolidation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is consolidating at a potential support level and traders should watch the consolidation high for a breakout. First, notice how broken resistance and the Fibonacci retracements mark support in the 36-36 area. This is a good spot for a bounce, but a breakout is needed to...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
WTI CRUDE IS CATCHING UP TO BRENT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude oil (the U.S. benchmark) has exploded over the last week. The lower line in the chart below shows the August light crude oil contract having broken out to the highest level in 14 months. Today's rise puts August crude at...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
British Pound and Euro Poised for Sharp Decline
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
This past week, the monetary policy world shook once again as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank provided the markets with "dovish" comments regarding leaving o/n funding rates low "for an extended period of time." This was clearly reminiscent of the Fed&...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
S&P 500 Warning Signs Emerging for Summer - Again
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
In the very near-term, it's difficult to predict which way the S&P 500 is heading. Recently, we saw the Volatility Index ($VIX) spike to nearly 22 and the multi-month uptrend line on the S&P 500 was violated. Take a quick look:
The biggest technical...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Customizing CandleGlance Charts
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
The big news at the moment is the big move in bonds ($TNX is at highest point since mid-2011) and gold ($GOLD is at lowest point since mid-2010). Several of the other commentators will have more to say about those developments below. As for me, I'...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Another Breakdown for Bonds
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Last week TLT, our bond market surrogate, made a new low, then bounced up to the resistance of the declining tops line drawn from the May top. It turned down on Wednesday, we thought beginning a move to test the recent low, but today TLT didn't bother to...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SMALL CAP INDEX HITS NEW HIGH -- S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EUROPEAN DECISION TO LEAVE RATES UNCHANGED CAUSES POUND AND EURO TO TUMBLE AND PUSHES DOLLAR SHARPLY HIGHER -- WTI CRUDE HITS 14-MONTH HIGH AND IS CATCHING UP TO BRENT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY LINE... Tuesday's message showed small caps leading large cap stocks higher. That's still the case. Chart 1 shows the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) having cleared a resistance line drawn over its May/June highs and, more...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
The Case for $1000 Gold
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Gold is medium-term oversold and ripe for a bounce, but the long-term trend remains down with a target in the $1000 area. There are two big moves defined by two sets of retracement lines on this chart. The first extends from the 2001 low to the 2011 high (±250 to...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
A Day in the Life of a Stock Market Trader: The Last 90 Minutes
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
The last trading hour in the markets is like “The Hour of Power” television show. It matters! The last hour has a lot going for it. It is when the big institutions (a.k.a. the smart money) show their hand, so to speak, and individual investors are able to...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Technology SPDR Hits Moment of Truth at Fibonacci Cluster Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a plunge from mid May to mid June, the Technology SPDR (XLK) bounced back to the 31 area to reach its first resistance area. First, broken support turns into resistance here. Second, the Fibonacci retracements tools show a cluster in the 31-31.33 area. Notice that these Fibonacci retracements...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
JAPAN ETF CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SMALL CAPS LEAD U.S. MARKET HIGHER -- SO DO CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCIAL STOCKS -- WEAKER STOCK INDEXES ARE BOUNCING OFF 200-DAY LINES -- RECENT UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN VIX INDEX IS NOW IN DOUBT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JAPAN ETF RISES ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE... A falling yen is helping to lift Japanese stocks. Chart 1 shows the Japanese yen falling back below its 50-day average. A falling yen is bullish for Japanese stocks. Right on cue, Chart 2 shows the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Fund (DXJ) climbing above...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
RISING DOLLAR HURTS COMMODITIES -- FALLING YEN BOOSTS JAPANESE STOCKS -- 50-DAY AVERAGE BLOCKS LOW VOLUME STOCK BOUNCE --BOND YIELDS REACH TWO-YEAR HIGH, BUT ARE STILL VERY LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING COMMODITIES KEEPS DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON COMMODITIES... The U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded sharply over the last two weeks (see circle in Chart 1). Global turmoil has pulled money out of foreign currencies (especially emerging markets) and into the relative safety of the U.S. dollar. That's...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
A Day in the Life of a Stock Market Trader 1:00 - 2:30 PM (NYC Time)
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Some battles you stay and fight. Others you best walk away from. This is the part of my day when I decide which is most appropriate. I love a steroidal stock chart as much as the next guy, but one can’t minimize the importance of context and the total...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
XSD Tests Breakout with Bullish Continuation Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) is consolidating within an uptrend as broken resistance turns first support in the 51 area. A small wedge or pennant formed the last five weeks and a break above 54 would signal a continuation higher. The indicator window shows XSD relative to SPY. Notice how XSD...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
MidCap SPDR Bounces off Support Zone, but Still Lags
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After hitting a new high in mid May, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) fell back towards its April lows in June. Combined with the 38.2% retracement, these lows mark support in the 200-202 area. MDY has yet to fully recover from last week's plunge...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY Hits First Resistance Zone - TLT Consolidates with Pennant
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Programming note: I will be on vacation from June 28 to July 12 (Friday to Friday). This is the all important two-week family vacation. My contributions to Art's Charts and the Market Message will resume on Monday, July 15. This will be the pause that refreshes! Thanks in...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Charts of Interest: ABC, ALL, DOX, MCK, NYT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ABC Extends Long Consolidation.
ALL Challenges Support Break.
Plus DOX, MCK and NYT.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Wal-mart Comes Across Bullish Momentum Scan
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Wal-mart corrected with the rest of the market over the last two months and retraced 50-61.80% of its prior advance with a falling channel. The correction stopped just short of broken resistance in the 72 area as prices surged back above 75 the last few days. Also notice that...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
USING BREADTH THRUSTS TO IDENTIFY REVERSALS -- BREADTH MOMENTUM REMAINS BEARISH FOR SPX AND NDX -- SURGE IN 10-YEAR YIELD OUTPACES RISE IN 2-YEAR -- YIELD CURVE STEEPENS TO 2011 LEVELS -- NOT ALL STOCKS ARE WEAK AS ONE ETF BREAKS TO A 52-WEEK HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USING BREADTH THRUSTS TO IDENTIFY REVERSALS ... Link for today's video. Programming note: I will be on vacation from June 28 to July 12 (Friday to Friday). This is the all important two-week family vacation. My contributions to Art's Charts and the Market Message will resume on...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Dollar Holds its Breakout - Treasuries Remain Oversold
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Programming note: I will be on vacation from June 28 to July 12 (Friday to Friday). This is the all important two-week family vacation. My contributions to Art's Charts and the Market Message will resume on Monday, July 15. This will be the pause that refreshes! Thanks in...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
S&P 500 Breaks Bullish Support Line On P&F Chart
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a move below 1570, the S&P 500 broke the blue Bullish Support Line and a new Bearish Resistance Line has been drawn (red). Looking at price action, there is a lot of support in the 1535-1540 area and this is the next target. Notice the three O-Columns...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY and QQQ Become Oversold after Sharp Declines
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved lower again on Monday with broad-based selling pressure. The decline was, however, contained because the major index ETFs gapped down, bounced and then moved lower in the final hour. All sectors were down with the Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) leading the way. The defensive sectors...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Charts of Interest: AFFX, ARUN, CHKP, FB, IPI
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AFFX Returns to Support and Firms with Good Volume.
ARUN Shows Relative Strength in June.
Plus CHKP, FB, IPI
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS TRIGGER NEW SIGNAL FOR SPY -- QQQ PLUNGES INTO SUPPORT ZONE -- CHINESE STOCKS GET HAMMERED AS SHORT-TERM RATES SURGE -- EUROPEAN TOP 100 INDEX TURNS RED YEAR-TO-DATE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS TRIGGER NEW SIGNAL FOR SPY... Link for today's video. According to the Directional Movement Indicators and the Vortex Indicator, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was in an uptrend from mid December until last week. After falling 2% last week and over 4% the...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Brent Oil ETF Confirms Bearish Continuation Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Weakness in stocks and strength in the Dollar weighed on oil as Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) and Brent futures fell sharply. The chart below shows Brent Crude ETF (BNO) breaking wedge support with a plunge below 77. The indicator window shows August Brent (^BQ13) falling and testing the wedge trend...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Stocks, Oil and Gold Broke Down and Now China is Plunging
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Chinese equities were hit hard on Monday with the Hang Seng Index ($HSI) falling over 2% and the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) plunging over 5%. A surge in overnight repo rates (Chibor) is to blame. Note that the US experienced a similar rate surge just before the Lehman collapse. While I...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
S&P 500 TRIGGERS A MACD SELL SIGNAL, SETTING A CORRECTION TARGET FOR THE DOW, BREADTH LINES FAIL TO CONFIRM FOR KEY SECTORS, REGIONAL BANK ETFS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH, RETAIL SPDR TESTS KEY TREND LINE AFTER GAP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 TRIGGERS A MACD SELL SIGNAL ... Link for today's video. Remember "sell in May and go away"? This phrase is based on the six month cycle in the stock market. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the period from May to...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Defensive Sectors Offer no Safety and Lead the Way Lower
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market peaked on May 22 and all sectors are down since then. The S&P 500 is down 4.09%, but the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Utilities SPDR (XLU) are down more and showing relative weakness. XLU is down a whopping 7.79%...
READ MORE
