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SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS AS IWM BREAKS SUPPORT -- USING THE VORTEX INDICATOR WITH SPY AND MDY -- FINANCIALS LEAD THE SECTORS LOWER -- HOMEBUILDERS LEAD CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR LOWER -- FDN TESTS SUPPORT AS IGN AND SMH BREAK SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS AS IWM BREAKS SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Small-caps started lagging large-caps last week and this relative weakness turned into absolute weakness as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) moved sharply lower the last few days. Chart 1 shows IWM consolidating the last two weeks of March...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: BCR, COH, KLAC, MRK, NUE, SWC, WFM

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

BCR Forms Bull Flag after Advance. Group Pressure Weighs as NUE Breaks Support on High Volume. Plus KLAC, MRK, SWC, WFM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...   READ MORE 

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Markets Splits as DIA Gains and IWM Loses

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

It was a rather strange day in the stock market. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell by 1.34%, but the Dow SPDR (DIA) edged higher with a .02% gain. Defensive stocks led the Dow higher with nice gains in JNJ, MRK and UNH from healthcare, T from Telecom and...   READ MORE 

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IWM Diverges from QQQ and SPY as Small-Caps Underperform

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

It was another strange day on Wall Street. DIA, QQQ and SPY closed up on the day and hit new highs for 2013. In contrast, IWM and MDY were hit with selling pressure and failed to confirm. Small-caps and mid-caps were relatively weak for the second day running. Also note...   READ MORE 

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Nasdaq Summation Index Tests 50-day Moving Average

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) remains in an uptrend overall, but the indicator hit resistance near the February high and turned lower the last few weeks. A break below the 50-day moving average would be negative and a break below the support low would turn this Nasdaq breadth indicator bearish....   READ MORE 

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DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS BATTLE IT OUT FOR DIA AND IWM -- SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER AFTER ISM -- BEARISH DIVERGENCES REMAIN FOR KEY BREADTH INDICATOR -- WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH APRIL?

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDICATORS BATTLE IT OUT FOR DIA AND IWM... Link for todays video. Lots of people are looking for a stock market correction, but it remains elusive as the major index ETFs either consolidate or extend their gains. There is only one thing required for a correction: more selling...   READ MORE 

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Telecom iShares Gets Caught in a Moving Average Sandwich

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The Telecom iShares (IYZ) is finding support from the rising 200-day moving average and hitting resistance at the 50-day moving average. A move above the March highs would break the 50-day and keep the longer term uptrend alive. Notice that MACD is improving as it inches into positive territory. Click...   READ MORE 

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Defensive Sectors Power the Market Higher

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Another week and another new high for the S&P 500. Even though the weekly gain was small, MDY, QQQ and SPY ended the month at their highs for 2013. IWM lagged a little and finished just below its mid March high. The big trend remains up, but we...   READ MORE 

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Trading the Markets as Black or White

by Gatis Roze,

Author, "Tensile Trading"

Wrong is now right.  What I once considered unreasonable is now considered reasonable (and I don’t mean just stock markets).  On YouTube, you can watch American Eskimo dogs playing with their natural predators, the polar bear (check it out).  Nature and civilization as I’ve known them have changed!...   READ MORE 

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Weekly MACD Turns Negative for Copper

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

It has been a bearish year for Spot Copper ($COPPER) and the recent breakdown points to even lower prices ahead. In addition to MACD turning negative, copper broke triangle support to signal a continuation of the prior decline (2011). The next support zone resides in the 2.80 area. Click...   READ MORE 

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Sprint, Gamestop and MetroPCS Show Technical Strength

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Sprint (S), Gamestop (GMS) and MetroPCS (PCS) are the big technical movers with double digit gains in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). All three recently broke above resistance on the price charts as well. You can find these top ten lists in the bottom half of our home page. Click...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 TESTS 2007 HIGH -- STOCK/BOND RATIO REACHES FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- FIXED INCOME MONEY ROTATES FROM TREASURIES TO CORPORATE BONDS -- HIGH YIELD BONDS REMAIN STRONGEST BOND CATEGORY -- DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS ARE HELPING LEAD MARKET ADVANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P NEARS TEST OF 2007 HIGH ... The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing its October 2007 intra-day peak at 1576. [The SPX is right at its 2007 closing high at 1565]. A new record high by the SPX seems inevitable given the...   READ MORE 

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UUP Breaks Resistance as GLD Edges Towards Resistance

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

There are plenty of reasons for stocks to move lower - but the stock market is not listening just yet. Stocks are still overbought after a huge rally since mid November and the six month seasonal pattern is set to turn bearish in about a month. Elsewhere, there is concern...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AMT, ATML, CNX, DVN, FCX, MMM

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

AMT Opens Weak and Closes Strong. ATML Forms a 3-Month Diamond Consolidation. Plus CNX, DVN, FCX, MMM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...   READ MORE 

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Nasdaq Most Actives Show more Strength than NYSE Most Actives

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

It was a rough day for the most active NYSE stocks as eight of ten moved lower. The opposite was true for the Nasdaq as eight moved higher. Old school titans Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) joined newbies Facebook (FB) and Groupon (GRPN). You can see this list on our...   READ MORE 

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QQQ RECOVERS AFTER WEAK OPEN -- ANALOG DEVICES, BROADCOM AND INTEL LEAD SEMIS HIGHER -- XLI AND XLF STALL WITH SMALL CONTINUATION PATTERNS -- EURO ETF EXTENDS PLUNGE TOWARDS NOVEMBER LOW -- TREASURIES SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ RECOVERS AFTER WEAK OPEN ... Link for todays video. The markets are a bit jittery on Wednesday, but US technology stocks are holding up rather well and showing some buying interest. Sharp declines in the Euro and European equities put investors on edge Wednesday. Oil was also trading lower, while...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks Triangle Line - Noose Tightens for GLD

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Led by the energy and healthcare sectors, stocks got a bid on Tuesday as the major index ETFs closed modestly higher. Large-caps led the way with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advancing .80 percent. All sectors were up, but the four offensive sectors lagged on the day. XLE,...   READ MORE 

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Oil Complex Leads Commodity ETFs Higher

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Oil was strong on Tuesday with the US Oil Fund (USO) gaining over 1.5%. Combined with gains in the US Natural Gas Fund (UNG), tbe US Gasoline Fund (UGA) and Heating Oil (UHN), the energy complex is showing strength across the board. The image below comes from the Market...   READ MORE 

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Volatiliy and Consolidations Continue for IWM, SPY and QQQ

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

It was a topsy-turvy day for the markets. Stocks opened strong on the heels of a Cyprus deal, but weakened as the details sunk in and EU comments suggested that this "unique" deal could be a template for future bailouts. While this news is certainly disconcerting for European...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AMZN, COF, DOW, GME, MMM, MS

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

AMZN stalls near support and under performs. COF shows signs of life with volume. Plus DOW, GME, MMM, MS This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need...   READ MORE 

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Bollinger Band Width Hits 12 month Low for Netflix

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The noose is tightening as indecision reigns supreme for Netflix. After more than doubling, the stock moved into a tight range the last two months. Notice that BandWidth is below 7% as the Bollinger Bands narrow. The range break will deliver the next signal. An upside breakout at 195 would...   READ MORE 

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QQQ HITS RESISTANCE, BUT HOLDS THE WEDGE -- APPLE BREAKS 50-DAY AS AMZN TESTS SUPPORT -- FDN, IGN AND SMH NEAR KEY SUPPORT LEVELS -- EURO FALLS AFTER CYPRUS DEAL -- ITALIAN, FRENCH AND SPANISH STOCKS GIVE UP EARLY GAINS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ HITS RESISTANCE AT MARCH HIGH, BUT HOLDS THE WEDGE... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) may be forming a rising wedge, but that wedge is clearly rising and the medium-term trend is up as long as it rises. There are two sides to every trade, a...   READ MORE 

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USO Breaks Wedge Resistance - XME Forms Bull Flag

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Cyprus has just a few days left - to dominate the news. Yes, once again, last-minute negotiations produced a bailout deal in the 13th hour. What a surprise. Cyprus will officially move to the back burner on Tuesday and we can get back to the real business at hand. US...   READ MORE 

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Quest Diagnostics Consolidates on Intraday P&F Chart

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

DGX moved sharply lower in January and February, but found support in late February and started a consolidation. The resolution of this consolidation will provide the next directional blue. A upside breakout would be bullish, while a downside break bearish. Click this image for a live chart...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES SPDRS GRAB THE LEAD -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR EXCEEDS CHANNEL LINE -- EQUAL-WEIGHT SECTOR ETFS OUTPERFORM SECTOR SPDRS -- TECHS AND MATERIALS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- GDX FORMS BEAR WEDGE WITH OVERSOLD BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES SPDRS GRAB THE LEAD... Link for todays video. By far, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are the top performing sectors SPDRs year-to-date. PerfChart 1 shows XLV and XLP crushing the competition with outperforming exceeding 3%. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is the...   READ MORE 

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Chasing Last Year's Winners

by Gatis Roze,

Author, "Tensile Trading"

Warren Buffett’s partner, Charles Munger, once said “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.”  There’s a parallel here with stocks.  The year in which certain equities top the performance charts more often than not precedes the year...   READ MORE 

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Bulk of the Technical Evidence Remains Bullish

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The major index ETFs hit new highs in March, but trading has been relatively flat the last two weeks. Even though the uptrends are firmly in place, flat trading indicates that the market may be moving into corrective mode. As we have seen this year, it is hard to time...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Remain Range Bound

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The major index ETFs continue to trade within narrow ranges. SPY has been stuck between 154 and 156 the last two weeks and QQQ has bounced between 67.5 and 68.8 since the gap on March 5th. After edging higher on Wednesday, stocks gave it back on Thursday and...   READ MORE 

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Sector Carpet Shows 7 of the 10 Biggest Movers Coming from Tech

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Stocks are under pressure on Thursday and the tech sector is also feeling the heat. Even so, three of the five biggest gainers in the S&P 500 come from technology. Electronic Arts, Yahoo and BMC Software are all trading higher. Click this image for a live chart...   READ MORE 

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WEAK COMMODITIES HURT PRODUCERS LIKE BRAZIL AND CANADA -- THAT'S A SIDE-EFFECT OF A STRONGER U.S. DOLLAR -- WEAK CANADIAN DOLLAR IS PUTTING DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON CANADA ISHARES -- VANGUARD EX-USA STOCK INDEX REMAINS STALLED BELOW 2011 HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRAZIL AND CANADA ARE UNDERPERFORMING THE U.S.... Last Thursday's message focused on the side-effects of a stronger U.S. dollar. One of the most notable intermarket effects was weaker commodity markets. Another is that a firmer dollar favors U.S. stocks over foreign stocks. I showed a...   READ MORE 

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XME Forms Falling Flag - USO Bounces off Support

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Stocks surged on the open and then moved into a relatively tight trading range. It is positive that the gains held, but lack of follow through suggests that the bulls are getting a little fatigued. The Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY)...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ANN, APA, FNSR, IACI, LH, S, TE

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

ANN Forms Flag Near Key Trend Line. APA Consolidates after Gap. Plus FNSR, IACI, LH, S, TE This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...   READ MORE 

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Commodity Index Fund Hits Resistance At Support Break

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The Commodity Index Fund (DBC) broke down with a sharp decline in February and then rebounded in March. This rebound was cut short when the ETF hit broken resistance and turned down on Monday-Tuesday. Last week's highs now mark the first resistance level to watch. Click this image...   READ MORE 

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SPY STALLS WITH A NARROW RANGE DAY -- QQQ AND XLK TURN VOLATILE, BUT HOLD THEIR GAPS -- HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS EXTEND LONG-TERM UPTRENDS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES LEADS AGAIN WITH A NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY STALLS WITH A NARROW RANGE DAY... Link for todays video. The Fed reiterated its intentions to purchase some $85 billion per month of Treasury and mortgage bonds  and the market greeted this news with a yawn. Stocks were already up heading into the announcement and traded flat afterwards. Chart...   READ MORE 

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TLT Holds Breakout to Create Negative Backdrop for Stocks

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Let the volatility begin. The situation in Cyprus remains fluid and the news flow is providing a great excuse for volatility. Again, I do not think the situation in Cyprus will affect consumer spending and housing in the US. The Fed finishes its two day meeting today with a policy...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN MARKET WEAKNESS IS BEGINNING TO WEIGH ON OVERBOUGHT US STOCKS -- EMERGING MARKET ISHARES FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS -- EUROPEAN ETF FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE IN HEAVY TRADING -- RISING DOLLAR PUNISHES ENERGY STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET ISHARES CONTINUE TO DROP ... Last Thursday's message showed emerging markets rolling over to the downside, and warned that might be signalling a pullback in the U.S. That situation has grown worse since then. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling to the lowest level...   READ MORE 

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Healthcare Sector Leads Year-to-date PerfChart

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is the top performing sector in 2013. Yes, XLV is even outperforming the Finance SPDR (XLF). Note that the PerfChart below shows relative performance. Sectors with positive relative performance are up more than the S&P 500. Sectors with negative relative performance are up less...   READ MORE 

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USO Bounces of Short-Term Support - TLT Holds Breakout

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Stocks opened weak on news of the Cyprus bail-in plan, but quickly found their footing and bounced. Nevertheless, the major index ETFs ended the day with small losses. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) held up well because Apple and Microsoft advanced. Note that tomorrow marks the one year anniversary of...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: CAT, CVC, DANG, NTAP, RAI, TJX

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

CAT Forms Engulfing Pattern at Key Retracement. CVC Firms at Long-term Support. Plus DANG, NTAP, RAI, TJX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...   READ MORE 

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Microsoft Turns Positive and Shows Leadership

by Arthur Hill,

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Stocks opened weak, but quickly recovered with techs leading the way. Microsoft (MSFT) opened at 27.81, firmed and then surged with a move above 28.2 by midday. This keeps the rising channel alive. Last week's low marks support on the price chart. The February lows mark...   READ MORE