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IWM AND MDY RECOVER AFTER WEAK OPENINGS -- TREASURIES BOUNCE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- EURO HITS KEY RETRACEMENT AND MOVING AVERAGE -- GOLD BOUNCES OFF RANGE SUPPORT -- COPPER BREAKDOWN SIGNALS A CONTINUATION LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IWM AND MDY REOVER AFTER WEAK OPENINGS... Link for todays video. Events in Cyprus triggered selling pressure that started with Asian stocks, continued in Europe and extended to the US on the open. The Hang Seng Index ($HSI) fell 2% and the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) fell 2.71%. European equities...
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SPY and IWM are Poised to Test Channel Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Look out below. Cyprus is getting the blame for today's move to risk-off. In short, the unprecedented decision to tax bank deposits in an EU country is putting the scare into markets. Cyprus is tiny, but the ramifications are being felt across the world today. Asian and European...
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New Newsletter Format, New Faster Servers and New Award!
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
We're starting to get "Spring Cleaning Fever" here at StockCharts. Can you tell?
Exhibit #1: This! This new newsletter design! What do you think of it? We reworked things to make the newsletter more readable, more printable and more informative overall. In addition,...
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The MACD Reset
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Personally, I love the MACD. It's one of my favorite technical tools when trading. It's not perfect - nothing is - but it does provide us a snapshot of momentum of a stock or index. The MACD is nothing more than the difference between two exponential...
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Bullish Consolidation Suggests Sharp Rise for Crude Oil
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
The stock market's uninterrupted gains in recent months is giving rise to talk of a bubble, and perhaps this is the case within the scope of time. It is still far too soon to determine this, although further gains will cause us to consider sharply higher prices within...
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U.S. Dollar Appears To Be Bottoming
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The monthly bars in Chart 1 plot the U.S. Dollar Index since 2001. Two major trends are seen on the chart. The first is the major downtrend in the dollar between 2002 and 2008. During 2008, the USD broke its six-year down trendline which ended its bear market. Since...
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QQQ Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern after Gap
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) have been underperforming the broader market, but both remain in uptrends since mid November and are holding their March gaps. Relative weakness stems from Apple, which is the biggest component for both ETFs. Microsoft, which accounts for over 7% of...
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Advance-Decline Lines Confirm New Price Highs
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
There are negative divergences on a lot of indicators we track (price makes a new high, but the indicators makes a lower high), but the advance-decline lines for breadth and volume are actually confirming the recent new price highs. This is reassuring but, it does not guarantee that even higher...
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Gold Sports a Small Breakout on the P&F Chart
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Spot Gold ($GOLD) forged a Double Top Breakout with a surge this month, but remains well short of a bigger breakout that could have medium-term consequences. Notice that February X-Columns marking resistance at 1615. A break above these would forge a Triple Top Breakout and be medium-term bullish for bullion....
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CHANNEL LINE MARKS UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 -- COMBINING THE MACD-HISTOGRAM AND THE SIX MONTH CYCLE -- WHY IS THE S&P 500 ETF ALREADY ABOVE ITS 2007 HIGH? -- S&P MIDCAP 400 IS THE ONE TRUE LEADER -- RUSSELL 2000 IS SECOND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CHANNEL LINE MARKS UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. There is certainly much ado about the S&P 500 and the 2007 highs these days. In the words of Mickey Blue Eyes, I say fuhgeddaboudit. Thats mob speak for forget about it. Why?...
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You Can Talk The Talk But Can You Walk The Talk?
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
I attend investment seminars as half-monk, half-hit man. My time is a precious commodity, so if you are a speaker and see me in the audience, be prepared. My hot button is when speakers show a few elaborate slides, “share” their four favorite tenets to successful investing and then launch...
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Small-caps Lead as AD Lines and AD Volume Lines Hit New Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their March surged this week as the major index ETFs moved to new highs. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines confirmed these moves with new highs of their own. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) are the leaders...
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ITB Hits New High - GLD Triangulates
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains on Thursday as the S&P 500 moved within spitting distance of its 2007 high. Small-caps led the way as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged 1%. All sectors were up, but their gains were muted. The Energy SPDR (XLE) was the only sector SPDR...
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The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Surges for Fossil and Ebay
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
SCTR scores provides a technical ranking for all 500 stocks in the S&P 500. Chartists can view the complete ranking in table format and sort by change to find the biggest movers. Fossil and Ebay are showing big moves today, which means their price charts could warrant a...
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SIDE-EFFECTS OF A STRONGER DOLLAR INCLUDE STOCKS DOING BETTER THAN COMMODITIES -- A STRONGER DOLLAR ALSO FAVORS U.S. OVER FOREIGN STOCKS -- TREASURY BOND YIELD IS RISING FASTER THAN FOREIGN YIELDS WHICH FAVORS DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. DOLLAR APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING... The monthly bars in Chart 1 plot the U.S. Dollar Index since 2001. Two major trends are seen on the chart. The first is the major downtrend in the dollar between 2002 and 2008. During 2008, the USD broke its six-year down...
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QQQ Extends Consolidation - USO and TLT Forms Rising Flags
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Boosted by a better-than-expected retail sales report, overbought stocks extended their advance with small gains. The major index ETFs were up fractionally with the S&P Small Cap iShares (+.55%) leading the way. The sectors were mixed with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Utilities SPDR...
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Charts of Interest: CA, CAT, FB, GT, MAR, NBR
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
CA Consolidates after Breakout.
CAT Confirms Bearish Continuation Pattern.
Plus FB, GT, MAR, NBR
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when...
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Brent Crude ETF Confirms Bearish Continuation Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Brent Crude ETF (BNO) plunged in February and then consolidated with a pennant in early March. This consolidation affirmed support near the trend line extending up from the early November low. With a sharp decline the last two days, BNO broke support to signal a continuation lower. Also notice...
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RETAIL SALES GROWTH BREAKS THE 1% THRESHOLD -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH IN MARCH -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES FORMS BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN -- RETAIL SPDR AND MV RETAIL ETF LEAD MARCH SURGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETAIL SALES GROWTH BREAKS THE 1% THRESHOLD... Link for todays video. The Commerce Department reported a 1.1% rise in February retail sales and the January number was revised higher. This better-than-expected number put retail sales growth above 1% for the first time since September. Chart 1 shows an area...
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ITB Turns Back at Resistance - GLD Breaks Bollinger Band
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks took a breather on Tuesday as the major index ETFs edged lower. The declines were small, very small. The sectors were mixed with the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB), Energy SPDR (XLE) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) bucking the market and scoring small gains. XLV hit a new high as Merck...
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Nasdaq 100 Sets Support with Four Bounces on P&F Chart
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Point & Figure charts are great for identifying support and resistance levels. The chart below shows the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) bouncing off the 2790 level four times in the past week as a consolidation takes shape. The bulls have a clear edge as long as this level holds. Note that...
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DROP IN EMERGING MARKETS MAY BE SIGNALLING MARKET PULLBACK -- EAFE ISHARES ARE ALSO STALLING AT THEIR 2012 PEAK AND ARE LOSING UPSIDE MOMENTUM -- THE S&P 500 HAS COME WITHIN FIVE POINT OF ITS 2007 TOP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EMERGING MARKET ISHARES ARE SLIPPING ... While an overbought S&P 500 is nearing a test of its 2007 high, emerging markets are starting to run into potential trouble around their 2012 highs. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling back below their 2012 high after moving above it...
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Bollinger Bands Narrow on GLD - USO Hits Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks started the day weak with some selling pressure on the open, but quickly firmed as the major index ETFs worked their way higher the rest of the day. SPY and MDY closed near their highs for the day, which also happen to be 52-week highs. On a percentage basis,...
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Charts of Interest: ALTR, AMCC, KSS, MRK, RDC
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ALTR Consolidates near Trend Line Support.
AMCC Bounces off Key Retracement.
KSS, MRK and RDC
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves...
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SPY HOLDS THE GAP WITH ANOTHER NEW HIGH -- REVISITING AROON FOR MDY AND IWM -- NETWORKING ETF AND SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR BREAK WEDGE RESISTANCE -- NET NEW HIGHS SURGE YET AGAIN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY HOLDS THE GAP WITH ANOTHER NEW HIGH... Link for todays video. You will often here trend-followers say, "a trend in motion stays in motion". This implies that the trend extends until proven otherwise. The current uptrend in stocks is clearly a trend that is staying in motion....
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Silver Trust Consolidates at Channel Trend Line
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Silver Trust (SLV) has been working its way lower since early October with a falling channel taking shape. After plunging in February, the ETF firmed near the lower trend line with a pennant. A break below 27.50 would signal a continuation lower, while a break above 28.50...
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XRT Hits New High - USO Bounces and Ignores Dollar
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a better-than-expected jobs report, stocks extended their gains on Friday and Treasuries dropped sharply. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit another new high, while the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) closed at its lowest level since May 2012. Stocks are as overbought as Treasuries are oversold, but...
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Bank of America Forms Bearish Candlestick Pattern at Interesting Level
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a strong open and sharp move lower, Bank of America (BAC) is gracing the intraday candlestick scan with a dark cloud as we head into the close on Friday. Note that this bearish reversal pattern is taking shape near resistance from the prior highs. Also notice that a broadening...
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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ON POSITIVE JOBS REPORT -- 7-10 YR TREASURY BOND ETF TESTS MAJOR SUPPORT LINE -- NON-FARM PAYROLLS EXCEED 200,000 FOR THIRD TIME IN FOUR MONTHS -- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE HITS KEY RETRACEMENT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ON POSITIVE JOBS REPORT... Link for todays video. Treasury bonds got hammered and treasury yields surged on the heels of today's employment report. The February surge in non-farm payrolls takes some pressure off the Fed for quantitative easing because the unemployment rate fell to...
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3 Investors, 3 Blind Spots, 3 Solutions
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Picture this: I am at a cocktail party chatting with three people about investing. The first person says, “I could be a really successful investor if only I could emotionally tolerate a bit more risk.” The second person claims, “I could be a world-class investor too if I had access...
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AD Lines and AD Volume Lines Hit New Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a massive eight day surge, the major index ETFs moved to new highs and the offensive sectors got back in gear. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines also moved to new highs, and Net New Highs expanded once again. New highs are bullish, but the size of this...
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IWM Makes it Eight Days Straight - GLD Extends Consolidation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks continued on their merry Thursday with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) leading the way (+.61%). Note that IMW is up eight days straight. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading at its highest level of the year as the market went from short-term oversold to short-term overbought...
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March Madness Comes Early as the S&P 500 Breaks Out on P&F Chart
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
60-minute P&F charts provide a nice medium-term perspective on broad market movements. This S&P 500 chart is based on 5-points per box and a 3-box reversal. Notice that it extends back to June and shows three big price swings. After the January surge, $SPX consolidated in...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS JOIN TRANSPORTS IN RECORD TERRITORY -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 2000-2007 HIGH -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE INDEXES HAVE ALREADY HIT NEW HIGHS -- SO HAS THE S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF WHICH GIVES BIGGER WEIGHT TO SMALLER STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW INDUSTRIALS JOIN TRANSPORTS AT RECORD HIGHS... The ability of the Dow Industrials to rise above its 2007 high to reach a new record is certainly a positive development for the stock market's long-term trend. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Industrials trading above their...
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IWM Forms Doji Near February Highs - SPY Has NR7 Day
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After big moves on Tuesday, stocks took a breather on Wednesday as the major index ETFs consolidated. The Dow SPDR (DIA) edged higher, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged lower. The sectors were also mixed with the biggest moves coming from the Materials SPDR (+88%) and the Finance SPDR...
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Charts of Interest: ANF, BSBR, BRCM, DNDN, HST
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ANF Bounces off Support with Rising Wedge.
BRBR Breaks Resistance with Surging Volume.
Plus BRCM, DNDN, HSL
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think...
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MEMBERS ONLY
Russell 2000 ETF Turns Indecisive At February High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up seven days straight and is now trading near potential resistance from the February high. Notice that an indecisive doji formed on Wednesday. A doji and surge above 90 started this seven day rally. A doji and move below 90 would reverse this seven...
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MDY AND IWM CHALLENGE THEIR FEBRUARY HIGHS -- ALL FOUR OFFENSIVE SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS FOR 2013 -- XLK GAPS AND BREAKS ABOVE FEBRUARY HIGHS -- AD LINES HIT NEW HIGHS TO CONFIRM UNDERLYING STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MDY AND IWM CHALLENGE THEIR FEBRUARY HIGHS... Link for todays video. Despite signs of waning upside momentum, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) held support and surged back to their February highs. Chart 1 shows IWM bouncing off the 89 area with a six...
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QQQ Surges to New High for 2013 - TLT Tests Support Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged out of the gate with big gains in the first 30 minutes. The ISM Services Index beat expectations at 10AM and this kept the bid in stocks for the rest of the day. The major index ETFs finished the day with gains ranging from .90% for the Dow...
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Genworth and Apollo Lead on the Sector Market Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Sector Market Carpet is showing lots of green as stocks surge with a broad-based rally. All sectors are up with industrials, finance and technology leading the way. Genworth (GNW) is the biggest gainer in the S&P 500, and Apollo (APOL) sports the second largest gain.
Click this...
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