You have to give the bulls credit for resilience. Stocks treaded water in the early going and then surged in the afternoon. The major index ETFs closed at or near their highs for the day. On the 60 minute charts, IWM broke falling channel resistance, SPY is challenging neckline resistance... READ MORE
ARIA Forms Bull Wedge Near Breakout. CTXS Bounces off Gap Support Zone. Plus BBBY, CTXS, F, PCS This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
The Guggenheim Airline ETF (FAA) continues to lead the transports with another big move. Note that Delta (DAL) and United Continental Broke consolidations today. AMR has a falling wedge working and could be next. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
AROON INDICATORS TURN BEARISH FOR IWM AND MDY... Link for todays video. Despite concerns that stocks are ripe for a correction, we have yet to see medium-term support breaks that would signal the start of these corrections. We are, however, starting to see some momentum indicators turn and short-term bearish... READ MORE
On a closing basis, the Dow SPDR (DIA) closed the week at its highest level in years. Even though Friday's intraday high did not exceed Thursday's intraday high, Friday's close was significant for DIA and the Dow Industrials. Or was it? Of the five... READ MORE
The past two trading weeks in the gold market has been rather dramatic: a sharp decline followed by a sharp rally and then a recent test of the lows. The end result - quite a bit of wailing and gnashing of teeth. And, we think the wailing shall become louder... READ MORE
Textbook dIvergences occur when an indicator fails to keep up with price. For example, a positive divergence is when price makes a lower bottom, but the indicator makes a higher bottom. A negative divergence is when price makes a higher top, but the indicator makes a lower top. In each... READ MORE
A lot of traders and investors are waiting for the bull market in gold to resume. They may have a very long wait. That's because a lot of traditional chart, technical, and intermarket signs are now working against gold. Let's start with a long-term look. The... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Last weekend I had a great time giving our SCU 101 seminar to a room full of people at the Dolphin Hotel in Orlando. One of the questions that came up during that seminar was "What does the solid black candlestick mean? I've looked... READ MORE
In my last article, I laid out several arguments why it would make sense to be more cautious as you approach the stock market. I'm bullish for the balance of 2013 - at least as of now - but the short-term has definitely turned more dicey. One of... READ MORE
The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) extended its advance with a break above the mid November high this week and a fresh six month high. UUP is at levels not seen since August 2012 and this surge could weigh on stocks because the Dollar and stock market have been negatively correlated... READ MORE
After a sharp decline last week, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) formed with a small rising wedge the last six days. These are typically bearish continuation pataterns and a break below 34.5 would signal a continuation lower. The indicator window shows the KST momentum oscillator moving below its... READ MORE
I attended a lecture last week given by Dr. Anthony Greenwald, a psychology professor at the University of Washington. Professor Greenwald was presenting findings from his new book, Blindspot, and as he spoke, I found myself thinking that he was addressing his comments directly to me. As is so often... READ MORE
DIA FALLS AFTER FORMING SHOOTING-STAR... Link for todays video. The Dow SPDR (DIA) was the strongest of the major index ETFs this week, but that did not stop the parade of bearish candlestick patterns. DIA was the only major index ETF to record a new high this week. The S&... READ MORE
The majority of indicators remain bullish, but offensive sector performance got a downtrend. The technology and consumer discretionary sectors underperformed in February, but the finance and industrials sectors outperformed. In addition, note that the defensive sectors outperformed in February. This combination points to risk-aversion in the stock market. The SPY... READ MORE
Stocks were strong in the first half of the day, but sold off in the second half, especially in the last hour. The Dow came within 15 points of its all time high and then fell over 90 points with the afternoon sell off. The senior average closed near its... READ MORE
Sears Holdings (SHLD) started the day strong, but sold off hard to form an outside reversal day. In fact, today's price action encompassed the high-low range of the last five days. This reversal also occurred on high volume to further reinforce resistance at 49. Click this image for... READ MORE
LONG-TERM INDICATORS ARE ROLLING OVER... A lot of traders and investors are waiting for the bull market in gold to resume. They may have a very long wait. That's because a lot of traditional chart, technical, and intermarket signs are now working against gold. Let's start... READ MORE
IBM Breaks Wedge Resistance with Good Volume. VRTX Surges off Support with High Volume. Plus CVC, CY, USB This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
The Dow led the market on Wednesday with a surge above 14000. Despite some sizable moves in the major index ETFs, only the Dow SPDR (DIA) cleared its prior highs and closed at its highest level for the month. Note that SPY, RSP, MDY, IWM and QQQ have yet to... READ MORE
DOW RECAPTURES 14000 WITH TWO-DAY SURGE... Link for todays video. After breaking below 13800 with a plunge on Monday, the Dow surged back above 14000 with a surge over the last two days. It has been a wild ride the last six trading days with the Dow moving over 100... READ MORE
Big defense contractors got slammed in late January as the market priced in a worst-case sequester scenario in about seven trading days. LMT firmed after this sharp decline and then surged with a long hollow candlestick on Wednesday. This move was strong enough to push CCI above 100 and trigger... READ MORE
Stocks were quite oversold after Monday's big plunge and managed to bounce on Tuesday. Even though the market was ripe for this bounce, there were a few fundamental factors contributing to the rebound. Bernanke brought his doves to capital hill, the Home Construction iShares (ITB) surged almost 4%... READ MORE
Don't look now, but Natural Gas ($NATGAS) held support near the 62% retracement and broken resistance near 3.10 this year. $NATGAS bounced twice off this level with the second surge sending it above 3.40 this week. The US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) also held support from... READ MORE
CVX Forms Big Bearish Engulfing at Resistance. DLTR Bases with Large Triangle Plus FISV, FLEX, HST, SKS, SNA, TIF This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Stocks surged on the open, quickly weakened and then plunged in the final hour. We all know where the blame went. Even though the Italian elections took the rap, note that the Euro has been falling since 4-Feb and Italian stocks are down around 10% over the past month. US... READ MORE
After big gains in January, the market is having a tough time in February with relative weakness coming from the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Technology SPDR (XLK). Also notice that the defensive sectors are starting to outperforming (XLP, XLU and XLV). Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
DOW DIGESTS GAINS AS BUYING AND SELLING PRESSURE EQUALIZE... Link for todays video. There are two ways to alleviate overbought conditions: correct with a pullback in prices or consolidate with a trading range. The Dow may be taking the latter road with a consolidation in the 13800-14000 area. Chart 1... READ MORE
It was a short, but wild, week for stocks. The major index ETFs started strong on Tuesday, plunged on Wednesday-Thursday and then rebounded on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) hit a new low for 2013 during Thursday's dip, while the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&... READ MORE
NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX IS STILL UP... My Thursday Market Message incorrectly stated that the NYSE Bullish Percent Index had turned down. Unfortunately, the chart I showed was the point & figure chart of the NYSE Composite Index which did turn down. Chart 1 shows that happening this week when... READ MORE
XBI surged the first two weeks of January, and then corrected the next six weeks with a falling channel. The fall is ever so slight though. A move above 96.5 would break the channel trend line and signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. The indicator window shows RSI... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR STARTS TO UNDERPERFORM... Link for todays video. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is perhaps the most important of the nine sectors SPDRs because it is closely tied to the economy. Note that the housing, retail, restaurant and automobile industries are part of the consumer discretionary sector. Chartists... READ MORE
Groucho Marx first said it and Woody Allen repeated the famous line “I’d never join a club that would allow a person like me to become a member.” As an independent trader, I’m part of an informal loose-knit group of investors who do what I do, tend to... READ MORE
The major index ETFs and indicators took hits this week, but there is no change in the overall picture. The major index ETFs, AD Lines and AD Volume Lines hit multi-month highs this month and pulled back sharply this week. Stocks were quite overextended after big moves from mid November... READ MORE
Stocks moved lower again on Thursday with the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) leading the way (down 1.22%). This means techs as a whole were relatively weak. Small-caps were also relatively weak with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling around 1%. Note that QQEW and IWM led on the... READ MORE
You can see a lot with CandleGlance charts. The 6 charts below come from the Nasdaq most active list today. Intel broke support with a sharp decline the last two days and Facebook broke down in early February. Blackberry is findng a bid as it firms near the three week... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE ROTATION ... Sector rotation often gives clues about the mood of the market. This week's sector trends suggest a more defensive mood. Chart 1, for example, shows the Materials SPDR (XLB) tumbling below its 50-day average over the last two days -- and on very heavy volume. The... READ MORE
AMZN Forms Bearish Wedge. COL Tests Support in the Face of Sequester. Plus JBHT, NAT, NOC, PX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
Stocks were weak in early trading and then got slammed in the afternoon. In addition to overbought conditions, several factors contributed to the afternoon sell off. Industrial metals fell sharply over the last few days due to concerns with Chinese economic growth. Several industry group ETFs within the materials sector... READ MORE
OIH surged to a new high with a long white candlestick last week, but suddenly stalled as the next three candlesticks formed inside this long candlestick. This is basically an extended harami pattern, which is potentially bearish. Also notice that OIH is up over 20% since mid November and a... READ MORE