A couple of indicators flipped this week, but the net result is the same as the indicator summary remains at +7. The Nasdaq AD Line shows too much weakness to be considered bullish, but it is offset by strength in the NYSE AD Line. Momentum flipped back to bullish as... READ MORE
The island reversals, up gaps and breakouts are holding. QQQ formed a lower low early this week, but IWM and SPY held above their early April lows. In fact, the recovery after Monday's gap down was so swift that I am going to draw my trendlines right through... READ MORE
CHIP STOCKS HELP POWER QQQ ADVANCE ... The technology-dominated Nasdaq continues to help lead the rest of the market out of its recent downside correction. The daily bars in Chart 1 show yesterday's upside gap in the Power Shares QQQ Trust following a downside gap just two days earlier.... READ MORE
The Fed made another policy statement with little change in its outlook or wording. Apple produced another blow out quarter. Even though neither event produced a surprise, Apple's coattails provided a big lift for the market overall. Most, if not all, of the gains came before the Fed... READ MORE
Careful out there. It is earnings season. AMT Breaks Out to 52-week High. DELL Hits Key Retracement. SLM Forms Small Descending Triangle. Plus AMZN, ATVI, FDX, IGT, TER, UTX. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell... READ MORE
DOW AND RUSSELL 2000 ETFS BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Fed voted to maintain the course and keep rates unchanged, which was hardly a surprise. To paraphrase from its policy statement, the Fed said it expects economic growth to remain moderate for a few quarters and then... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials remains in a long-term uptrend as it bounced off the bullish support line extending up from October 2011. This line and the April low combine to mark a key support zone in the 12850-12900 area. It would take a P&F print below the last O-Column... READ MORE
Apple is stoking the street with a big move after reporting earnings. While a strong open is expected, what happens after the open, and after the Fed statement, is more important. Actually, I think Thursday's price action will hold the key to the next move in stocks. Trading... READ MORE
After hitting resistance in the 80-81 area in March, Citrix (CTXS) failed once again at this level with a shooting star candlestick last week. Notice the long upper shadow extending above 80. A down gap followed this bearish reversal candlestick and the next support zone resides around 71. Click this... READ MORE
Stocks are short-term oversold, it is turnaround Tuesday, Apple reports earnings today and the bigger trend (6 months) remains up. On top of all this, traders will also be gearing up for the start of the Fed meeting today and policy statement on Wednesday (12:30PM). Stocks moved lower on... READ MORE
APD Breaks Rising Flag Support. AZO Forms Pennant with Strong Up Volume. LXK Forms Bullish Engulfing on Big Volume. Plus AMX, ANF, APD, COH This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
When it comes to the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), there is oversold and then there is OVERSOLD. Readings below -100 are average oversold, while anything below -200 is really oversold. For just the third time in twelve months, 20-day CCI for Apple moved below -200. Prior readings occurred in June... READ MORE
SMALL AND MID CAPS LEAD STOCK MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks move sharply lower in early trading on Monday with the Russell 2000 ($RUT) and the Nasdaq leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 breaking flag support with a weak open and decline below 790 early... READ MORE
Stocks look heavy as selling pressure hit Friday afternoon and remains early Monday. $SPX futures are down around 10 points in early trading (5AM ET). Bonds and the Dollar are up, while gold and oil are down. Stocks surged last Tuesday, but gave back these gains with a decline on... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Spring has finally sprung here in the Pacific Northwest and we are very glad that it has. I hope the weather is as nice where you are as it is here. This edition of ChartWatchers contains some great articles - not all of them quite so sunny.... READ MORE
WELCOME GATIS ROZE AND "THE TRADING JOURNAL" BLOG - In case you missed it, we've added another great author to our collection. Gatis Roze is not writing articles in our free Blogs area for "The Trading Journal" blog. His first article, titled "Double... READ MORE
Once a month, the stock market provides us a unique opportunity. In basketball terms, it's like the market makers have the ball with time running out in the quarter - or the game - and they nearly always bury that critical three-pointer. For those more predisposed to hockey,... READ MORE
One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. Chart 1 shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines are plotted "... READ MORE
A subscriber brought something to my attention that I wish I had thought of before. We think (at least I did) that the SPY (ETF) and SPX (S&P 500 Index) perform pretty much the same except for some minor tracking error. However, this is not the case because... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE SECTOR ROTATION ... One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. Chart 1 shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines... READ MORE
The Energy SPDR (XLE) broke key support in late March with a sharp decline and has yet to reach the next key support level. The chart below shows XLE consolidating in the 69 area over the last two weeks. This consolidation looks like a rest within the downtrend. A break... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) managed to firm after Monday's sharp decline, but remains within a short-term downtrend defined by a falling flag. It would take a move above resistance at 67 to reverse this fall. Chartists can also watch for the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) for confirmation.... READ MORE
Most individual investors seem to feel it isn't cool to talk about exits before even buying an equity. Institutional traders know that it's uncool not to do so. Who is right? As is my norm, I’ve looked to my Trading Journal to answer that question,... READ MORE
HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS TAKING SHAPE IN DIA, XLI AND MDY... Link for todays video. Wednesday I noted that the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed rising flag patterns after the sharp April decline. Taking a look at price action since early February, it is also possible that... READ MORE
The indicator summary dipped to +7 this week after two downgrades. The bulk of the evidence is still bullish, but a few indicators weakened with the April decline. The NYSE AD Line and AD Volume Line briefly broke their March lows. The Energy Bullish% Index ($BPENER) dipped below 50% to... READ MORE
Stocks weakened over the last two days as IWM broke its rising flag trendline and SPY tested its rising flag trendline. QQQ remains in a downtrend as Apple continues to weigh. On the 60-minute chart, SPY broke support with a sharp decline in early April to start a short-term downtrend.... READ MORE
The Sector Market Carpet shows big gains in three stocks powering these industry groups. EBAY is up over 15% and leading the internet group. FFIV is up over 13% and leading the networking group. Both groups are part of the technology sector. GILD is up over 10% and leading the... READ MORE
The moment of truth is drawing near. After a bounce the prior five days, the major index ETFs consolidated on Wednesday. DIA and SPY formed inside days to signal short-term indecision. Also note that rising flag patterns formed in DIA, SPY and IWM. A break below rising flag support levels... READ MORE
Careful out there. It is earnings season. AMAT Consolidates in Key Retracement Zone. GRMN Forms Flat Flag after Breakdown. STT Breaks Short-term Resistance with Volume. Plus HRB and HUM. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell... READ MORE
Morgan Stanley fell to support with a sharp decline from late March to early April and then consolidated the last eight days. While the stock market bounced, MS remained flat and is lagging the market the past week. Watch the consolidation boundaries for the next directional signal. Click this image... READ MORE
IWM AND DIA FORM RISING FLAG PATTERNS... Link for todays video. After a sharp decline in early April, stocks bounced the last 5-6 days with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) leading the major index ETFs. These bounces traced out patterns that look like rising flags,... READ MORE
Stocks surged with the oversold Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the major index ETFs higher on Tuesday. What is it about Tuesdays and turnarounds? All sectors were up with technology, industrials and energy leading the charge. IWM and SPY have five day uptrends working on the 60-minute charts, but these... READ MORE
The Industry Summary page provides chartists with an easy way to view performance for the nine big sectors and the industry groups that make up these sectors. The image below shows DJ US Coal Industry Index ($DJUSCL) leading the energy sector with a 4 plus percent gains. Chartists can click... READ MORE
The short-term trends for the major index ETFs may be down, but the medium-term and long-term trends are still up. Keep this in mind before getting too bearish. My best guess is that stocks will enter some sort of trading range over the next few weeks to digest the big... READ MORE
Careful out there. It is earnings season. AKS Forms Two Inside Days. TRV Forms Falling Flag after Breakout. UAL Surges on Higher Volume. Plus DNR, GGP, LLY, ORCL, WM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell... READ MORE
With a bounce the last four days, the Transport iShares (IYT) held support from the early March low and remained range bound. Notice how the ETF has traded between 89.7 and 96 since mid January. Chartists should watch this range for the next directional signal. Click this image for... READ MORE
APPLE AND GOOGLE LEAD NASDAQ 100 ETF LOWER... Link for todays video. Tech stocks moved sharply lower in early trading on Friday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declining over 1%. Chart 1 shows QQQ moving below 66 with its sharpest decline since December. The first support zone to watch... READ MORE
There were some trend changes over the last two weeks and some trend extensions. Most notably, stocks reversed their uptrends and the Dollar reversed its downtrend. While the bigger trend remains up for stocks, April's small-cap led decline started a short-term downtrend with key support breaks last week.... READ MORE
After falling out of favor in February and March, Hewlett Packard found support around 23 and gapped up on Thursday. Notice that the stock opened strong, moved higher throughout the day and closed strong. This gap looks like a breakaway gap that is confirmed by strong volume. Click this image... READ MORE
TRANPORTS LEAD STOCK RALLY ... Tuesday's message showed a number of stock indexes testing initial support at their early March low, which is the first line of chart support during the current market pullback. Most of those indexes have either bounced off that initial support level or have climbed... READ MORE