(Welcome to the debut article of our new blog area called "The Traders Journal" written by our new Educational Evangelist, Gatis Roze. Gatis has been trading his own account successfully for over 20 years and teaching sold-out investment classes in the Seattle area for over 10 years. Gatis&... READ MORE
With a sharp move lower the last five days, the German DAX Index ($DAX) is testing support from the March low. In fact, support in the 6600 area extends back to early February. A break below this support level would suggest an even deeper correction that could weigh on US... READ MORE
Priceline has been one of the top performers over the last four months, but a correction may be in the cards after a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern. Notice how the stock opened above the prior close and then declined to close below the prior open. The strong open failed to... READ MORE
BOND YIELD PLUNGES AS BOND PRICES JUMP... The weak job reports from last Friday is having a bearish impact on stocks (as expected), but a bullish effect on bonds. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) gapping down sharply on Monday to fall back below its 50-day moving... READ MORE
The chart below shows the High-Yield Bond ETF (JNK) breaking below its March low with a sharp decline the last eight days. This is negative for stocks because junk bounds and stocks tend to move in the same direction. Notice that the Correlation Coefficient (JNK, $SPX) has been mostly positive... READ MORE
The nine S&P Sector SPDRs were mixed last week with the defensive sectors scoring gains and the offensive sectors under pressure. The PerfChart below shows the consumer staples, healthcare and utilities sectors gaining for the week, while the fiance, industrials and tech sectors lost ground. With a 2.... READ MORE
I'm not quite sure why, but there definitely is a positive bias towards small cap stocks as we approach the Spring season. April and May are the 2nd and 3rd best calendar months in terms of annualized returns on the Russell 2000. Only December boasts a better monthly... READ MORE
Although I generally look at the S&P 500 to get a feel for the market's trend, it's a good idea to see what other stock indexes are doing. Two of them are giving warning signals. Chart 1 shows the S&P 400 Mid... READ MORE
We don't look at the 4-Year Cycle chart very often, but a subscriber's comments reminded me that now would be an excellent time to view the progress of this important cycle. On the chart below the vertical lines show the location of all nominal 4-Year Cycle... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Having the right subscription level can save you a significant amount of money OR depending on how you use it, it can cost you a lot of money in the form of bad trades. At StockCharts, we offer several different membership levels - Free, Basic, Extra, ExtraRT... READ MORE
STOCK FUTURES WEAKEN ON FRIDAY... A disappointing jobs report on Friday caused U.S. stock index futures to fall 1%. My Thursday message wrote about the likelihood for a market correction. That was based on the fact that stocks are overbought, the tendency for the seasonal trend to start weakening... READ MORE
The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) and the Home Construction iShares (ITB) have led the market higher since October. ITB is up over 50% since early October and KRE is up over 40%. The chart below shows ITB in black and KRE in red. Notice how these two moved step-for-step over... READ MORE
After forming a broadening formation in 2011, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) broke down with a sharp decline the last six weeks. GDX broke support from the 2011 lows and the next support zone resides in the 47.5 area. The indicator window shows GDX relative to GLD using the... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES WEAKEN... It's dangerous to analyze the U.S. stock market without taking into consideration trends in foreign markets. That's because they are very highly correlated. In my view, odds for a downside correction in the U.S. have increased, due mainly to selling in... READ MORE
The Networking iShares (IGN) shows relative weakness with a lower high in March and channel break the last few days. Relative weakness is also reflected in the price relative (IGN:SPY Ratio), which did not come close to its February high and remains in a downtrend. Click here for a... READ MORE
The chart below shows Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) hitting support in the 21.8 area and surging the over 1% the last two days. Notice that UUP formed a higher low above the late October low and this surge could signal a continuation of the November-December advance. Click here for... READ MORE
EURO WEAKNESS BOOSTS DOLLAR EVEN MORE... The likelihood for a downside correction in stocks is growing. In fact, one may already be starting. The S&P 500 remains in an overbought condition, but has yet to break any support levels. Those initial support levels may be tested shortly. The... READ MORE
FED SEES LESS NEED FOR MORE STIMULUS... Minutes of the Fed's March meeting released this afternoon surprised the markets by suggesting that it saw less need for additional stimulus. That immediately pushed bond yields sharply higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) jumping sharply which... READ MORE
BOND RALLY IS IN DOUBT... Last Tuesday's message showed the bond market attempting a rebound after some heavy selling during March. So far the rally has been less than impressive. That's especially true of Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF)... READ MORE
After a big surge in February, PG moved into a trading range and the Bollinger Bands contracted significantly. This "squeeze" means volatility is contracting, which in turn could foreshadow a volatility expansion (range break). A close above the upper band would be bullish, while a close below the... READ MORE
The new SCTRs feature at StockCharts.com is great for finding stocks that are doing well based on a wide variety of technical factors however sometimes you want to focus in on performance. We've all heard it before - "Buy the strongest stocks in the strongest industries... READ MORE
Even though it may be lagging the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a percentage basis, the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is leading the market on a "chart" basis with a 52-week high. In fact, there have been a string of 52-week highs since the latter part... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES... The U.S. Dollar Index has been on the defensive for the last two weeks, and is again today. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) bearing down on its 200-day moving average once again (see circle). The UUP bounced off that... READ MORE
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) has been one of the best performing ETFs over the last six months, but this run may hit resistance from the 2010 highs in the 15.50 area. The six month trend is clearly up and I would mark support at the early March low.... READ MORE
The six CandleGlance charts shows the CRB Index ($CRB) and five commodity groups. All are down today with the oil heavy CRB Index falling over 1%. The Industrial Metals Index (GJX) moved below its mid February low and the Agriculture Index ($GKX) fell over 4% the last nine days. Click... READ MORE
Programming Note: I will be on family vacation the next two weeks and Art's Charts will return on Monday, April 16th. Chinese stocks are under pressure again this morning, but US stock futures are holding fairly firm - so far. Perhaps US stocks look good relative to parts... READ MORE
AMAT Breaks Wedge Support with big Volume. BA Remains Stuck in Long Consolidation. DE Declines from Resistance. Plus CAKE and MCHP This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL METALS UNDERPERFORM STOCK MARKET... Link for todays video. While the major stock indices pushed to new highs this month, the Base Metals ETF (DBB) and the Copper ETF (JJC) failed to break their February highs and are on the verge of breaking support. The working assumption here is that... READ MORE
Chinese stocks got slammed on Wednesday and pervasive weakness could weigh on US stocks. The major index ETFs remain in uptrends, but are overbought after big moves on Monday and still quite vulnerable to both a short-term and medium-term correction. On the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) chart, the... READ MORE
The Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) continues to show relative weakness as it tests its support zone stemming from the November-December lows. Also notice that the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) confirms relative weakness by holding below 50 for over six months. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS BACK OFF FROM OCTOBER RESISTANCE... Upbeat comments from the Fed a couple of weeks back caused an upward spike in bond yields and heavy selling of Treasury bond prices. After reaching previous highs formed last October, bond yields are dropping again. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield... READ MORE
On the Point & Figure chart below, the Energy SPDR (XLE) forged a Triple Bottom Breakdown when the most recent O-Column moved below the equal lows of the prior two O-Columns. This breakdown is bearish with a downside projection around 67.50, which coincides with the Bullish Support Line extending... READ MORE
Stocks moved sharply higher on Monday with small-caps leading the charge. Sector-wise, the technology, consumer discretionary, finance, industrials and healthcare sectors gained over 1.5% to show upside leadership. It was yet another a broad market surge within an uptrend that began way back on 19-Dec. On the S&... READ MORE
AMX Surges above Resistance with Good Volume. LUV Bounces off Support with High Volume. MON Consolidates with Tight Triangle. Plus ALK, FCX, MCP, XRX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
After consolidating since mid February, TechTarget (TTGT) finally made a break with a three-day surge above resistance. The move looks impressive price-wise, but volume is sorely lacking thus far. Even though Monday's trading has yet to close, volume on the three day advance did not validate this breakout.... READ MORE
BERNANKE TALKS AND STOCKS JUMP ... Link for todays video. Stocks started the week strong as dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke encouraged the bulls. Bernanke noted that the Fed needed to extend its accommodative policies to encourage job growth. Most of us are familiar with the motto: dont fight the... READ MORE
Stocks got an oversold bounce with small-caps, materials and energy leading the way on Friday. Despite this bounce, these three are lagging the broader market overall, which means this is a case of the worst hit groups getting the best bounce. Relative weakness in small-caps and the deterioration in breadth... READ MORE
Finisar (FNSR) plunged with a move from 23.50 to 18, but found support right at the 61.80% retracement line, which is based on a Fibonacci number. Even though the stock has yet to recover, it is consolidating with clear support and resistance levels to watch going forward. Click... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR STALLS WITH SMALL CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. Retail stocks are showing early signs of relative weakness that could foreshadow a stock market correction. Chart 1 shows the Retail SPDR (XRT) coming under pressure on Friday with a decline back below 61. The ETF first moved above 61... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains firmly positive with relative weakness in small-caps the only concern in the market right now. Well, I am also concerned with overbought conditions that could lead to a corrective period ahead. Nevertheless, we have yet to see any signs of significant selling pressure. The current advance... READ MORE