After surging in October, the Energy SPDR (XLE) moved into a sideways pattern with a lower high and a higher low. In short, the noose is tightening as a triangle consolidation takes shape. Watch resistance from the early December high and support from the mid December low for the next... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN... Last Thursday's message was about a strengthening housing sector. It showed two housing-related ETFs climbing over their 200-day moving averages for the first time in several months. Those upside breakouts are holding. In fact, homebuilders are one of today's strongest groups. Chart... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is hitting resistance from the November trendline and a key retracement. Notice that the ETF turned back at the 62% retracement with Wednesday's decline. A lower high could be taking shape as buying pressure dries up below the early December high. Click this... READ MORE
DIVIDEND ISHARES HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH ... One of the consistent themes that we've written about since the spring is the rotation toward large dividend-paying stocks. Many of those stocks are also in defensive stock groups that include healthcare, staples, and utilities. There's no sign of that trend... READ MORE
Of the nine sector SPDRs, only two hit new 52-week highs last week: the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and the Utilities SPDR (XLU). These two defensive sectors are clearly leading the market right now. The chart below shows XLP breaking its May highs and the Price Relative moving higher since... READ MORE
The Santa Clause rally continued into Friday with the S&P 500 clearing its 200-day moving average in the early afternoon. Prior attempts in early December failed as the index fell back before the close. Let's see if Santa can make good on this one. Merry Christmas!... READ MORE
S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 12-MONTH EMA... Link for todays video. Today I am going to take a big step back and look at the monthly charts for the major intermarket assets: stocks, bonds, the Dollar, gold and oil. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 with... READ MORE
Even though the indicator summary remains unchanged this week, there was some strengthening under the hood this week. Notably the NYSE Net New Highs Line continues to rise and shows no signs of weakness. The AD Volume Lines bounced this week and are on the verge of trend changing breakouts.... READ MORE
First, note that Art's Charts will not be published next Monday through Thursday. It is a fine time for family and Christmas. Commentary will resume on Friday, December 30th. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from all of us at Stockcharts.com. Now to the charts! The good ole... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) is challenging resistance from an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern. After surging in October, the ETF consolidated for two months to set up the pattern. The late November low formed the head and neckline resistance is set just above 122. Before getting too bullish, note that low... READ MORE
HOUSING ETFS START TO OUTPERFORM... For the first time in a long time, stocks tied to housing are starting to show good absolute and relative performance. The two main housing ETFs that I follow have moved back above their 200-day moving averages. In case you're thinking of nibbling... READ MORE
An earnings miss from Oracle hit the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) hard, but the broader market held up pretty well as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished the day with a slight gain. On the 60-minute chart, SPY broke resistance with Tuesday's surge and broken resistance... READ MORE
ATVI Forms Harami at Support. NYB Edges High on Expanding Volume. T Breaks Flag Resistance after Failed Deal. Plus AET, HST, MET, PBCT and PGR. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock... READ MORE
QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. An earnings miss from Oracle hit the stock and the technology sector hard on Wednesday. With a market cap of $127 billion, Oracle (ORCL) is still a technology titan that carries lots of weight within the industry. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
There are two bearish patterns at work with Akamai (AKAM). First, a lower high formed in early December and a descending triangle is taking shape. A move below 26 would confirm this pattern. Second, a bear flag formed the prior five days and the stock is on the verge of... READ MORE
The European Central Bank (ECB) is opening the monetary floodgates today. While they may not call it quantitative easing (QE) by name, the ECB is essentially giving money to European banks so they can stimulate the economy with increased lending. Seems I've heard this one before. The US... READ MORE
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) may have an antiquated name, but the stock has outperformed Apple (AAPL) since mid September. On the chart below, ADP broke resistance from the October-November highs with a big move. Even though volume is light, the breakout is bullish as long as it holds. Click this... READ MORE
SPY AND IWM RETAKE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES... Link for todays video. Stocks surged in early trading on Wednesday with a broad rally that lifted all sectors. The combination of oversold conditions and a bounce in the Euro triggered some pre-Christmas buying pressure, which may just be the start of the... READ MORE
Now that everyone has officially given up on the Santa Claus rally and stocks are oversold, perhaps we will get that rally. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains in a falling price channel that is defined by the Raff Regression Channel. Key resistance is set at 123. Within... READ MORE
AMZN Forms Big Hammer at Support. CCL Traces out Big Bearish Engulfing. DE Declines Six Days Straight. Plus $AN, $APOL, D, DE, FSIV, MXIM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) broke below the prior two O-Columns to forge a triple bottom breakdown on the 30min PnF chart. This bearish signal suggests that the ETF is going lower with a downside price objective around 52.90. This can be see at the top of the chart.... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS LEADING US LOWER... Last week I pointed out that the rising dollar was taking a bigger toll on foreign stocks than those in the U.S. That continues to be the case. Today's 2% loss pushed Emerging iShares (EEM) further below their 50-day average and closer... READ MORE
I am taking a day off of the commentary today, but the charts have been updated and posted below. Art's Charts will return in full on Tuesday. Key Economic Reports: Mon - Dec 19 - 10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index Tue - Dec 20 - 08:... READ MORE
The chart below shows the three strongest drug stocks in the PPH this year. All three have recently achieved upside breakouts. They include Bristol Myers (blue line), Pfizer (red line), and Eli Lilly (green line). The black line is the PPH. As you can see, the three drug leaders have... READ MORE
The 30-year bond yield has dropped below three percent many times this year, dropping as low as 2.694% in October. It has been trending up since then, but today it looks as if the October low could be retested. On the daily bar chart below we can see that... READ MORE
I always find myself turning my attention to "next year" in the stock market as we enter the December holiday season. On many fronts, 2011 has been the most challenging year in equities that I've ever seen. Sure, the losses in 2008 and the fear that... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) remains one of the strongest ETFs in the market. As a core part of the consumer discretionary sector, retail is one of the most important industry groups and Christmas is perhaps the most important season. A lot is riding on the consumer this holiday season. The... READ MORE
With a downturn in the stock market this week, the NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) turned back down and broke below its 5-day EMA. This shows that breadth is deteriorating once again. The McClellan Oscillator also turned negative. Note that the Summation Index is a cumulative measure of the McClellan Oscillator.... READ MORE
SEPARATING PRIMARY MOVEMENTS FROM SECONDARY MOVEMENTS... Link for todays video. Today I am going to focus on weekly charts for a long-term perspective. Charles Dow identified three general movements in the market: primary, secondary and random fluctuations. The primary trend is, of course, the biggest and the most important. Secondary... READ MORE
The market is about as mixed up as it can be right now. With a few downgrades this week, the indicator summary flipped back to negative territory (-2). There are still a few neutral readings out there that could go either way with a significant move. The AD Volume Lines... READ MORE
Stocks got a bounce as the Euro finally firmed for a day. The seasonal patterns for the stock market are still bullish this time of year. These include yearend window dressing, the Santa Claus rally, historic returns in December, the January effect and the six-month cycle. It is also interesting... READ MORE
PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDERS OUTPERFORM HEALTHCARE SPDR... Arthur Hill yesterday showed market leadership by defensive stocks that include staples, healthcare, and utilities. That defensive leadership started with the market peak last spring, and has re-asserted itself again recently. I've been focusing mainly on pharmaceutical stocks in recent messages. That'... READ MORE
The risk-off trade remained in force on Wednesday with oil joining the sell-off in stocks, the Euro and gold. US Treasuries and the Dollar benefitted from a flight to safety. Concerns over Europe continue to dominate the headlines as Italian 10-year yields moved to 6.69%. Italy auctioned $3 billion... READ MORE
AEE Forms Pennant after Sharp Decline. CVX Breaks Support on High Volume. GGP Stalls with Bull Flag. Plus AMGN, CPN, GE This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
After a big surge in late November, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) pulled back with the rest of the market and formed a falling flag the last few weeks. This is a bullish continuation pattern and a break above 34 would reverse the three week slide. Notice that XLV continues to... READ MORE
Top ten lists for the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) can now be found on the home page (scroll down). Merck (MRK) stands out from the list of stocks with the biggest SCTR change. The SCTR jumped 12.4 as the stock broke flag resistance and challenged its 2011 highs. Click... READ MORE
QQQ FILLS GAP AS IWM BREAKS 50-DAY SMA... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the major index ETFs lower on Wednesday and filled the big gap. Chart 1 shows QQQ forming lower highs from July to October and from early November to early December. With a... READ MORE
The risk-off trade took hold in the markets with stocks and the Euro falling. Bonds and the Dollar surged, but oil bucked the trend with a big gain. I am not sure how long oil can hold up in the face of a strong Dollar and weak stock market. In... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) is under pressure today after a miss from Best Buy (BBY) and a lackluster Retail Sales report. XRT broke trendline resistance in early December and then consolidated. This breakout is holding, but barely. Consolidation support is set at 52 and a break below this level would... READ MORE
US HOLDS UP BETTER THAN FOREIGN DEVELOPED MARKETS ... Although it's been a rough year for all global stocks, U.S. stocks have held up better than everyone else's. Chart 1 compares the S&P 500 to the world's biggest stock markets during 2011.... READ MORE