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US STOCKS HOLD UP BETTER THAN FOREIGN STOCKS DURING 2011 -- A RISING DOLLAR IS A BIG REASON WHY -- DESIRE FOR SAFETY ALSO EXPLAINS WHY THE DOW HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER IN THE US THIS YEAR ALONG WITH DIVIDEND STOCKS -- PFIZERS NEARS FIVE-YEAR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
US HOLDS UP BETTER THAN FOREIGN DEVELOPED MARKETS ... Although it's been a rough year for all global stocks, U.S. stocks have held up better than everyone else's. Chart 1 compares the S&P 500 to the world's biggest stock markets during 2011....
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Charts of Interest: FLEX, MMM, TEVA, THO, TTWO, URBN
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
FLEX Flexes its Muscles.
MMM Hits Big Resistance Zone.
TEVA Forms Bullish Pennant.
Plus THO, TTWO, URBN
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...
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SPY, GLD and USO Plunge as TLT and UUP Surge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though the seasonal patterns are bullish, stocks remain under pressure and the stt trends are down. The bullish seasonals include the two-year cycle, the fourth year of a presidential term, the six-month cycle, the Santa Claus rally, yearend window dressing and the January effect. On the S&P...
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Silver ETF Breaks Flag Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Weakness in precious and industrial metals weighed on silver as the Silver Trust (SLV) broke flag support with a sharp decline Monday. This break signals a continuation of the breakdown from mid November. MACD moved below its signal line to turn momentum bearish. Resistance is set at the early December...
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IWM GETS CAUGHT IN MOVING AVERAGE SANDWICH -- SPY FAILS AT 200-DAY SMA -- RYDEX S&P EQUAL WEIGHT ETF UNDERPERFORMS SPY -- EURO PLUNGES AS MARKETS RE-ASSESS EU SUMMIT -- ENERGY SPDR LEADS SECTORS LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IWM GETS CAUGHT IN MOVING AVERAGE SANDWICH ... Link for todays video. Stocks were down sharply in early trading on Monday with small-caps leading the way lower. With this move, the 200-day moving average is marking resistance for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Despite todays decline, the 50-day line is still...
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SPY Challenges Resistance as GLD Tests Key Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It looks like we had some sell-the-rumor and buy-the-news. Rumors of an EU breakdown were swirling on Thursday and this caused a sell-off in stocks. However, these rumors were squashed with an agreement to agree on fiscal constraints. Admittedly, we did not get a concrete agreement out of the EU...
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DAX AND DOW BOUNCE AS EU SUMMIT WINDS DOWN -- THE NOOSE NARROWS AS GOLD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE -- GOLD MINERS ETF FILLS GAP WITH FALLING WEDGE -- BASE METALS ETF FORMS TRIANGLE WITHIN DOWNTREND -- SPOT CRUDE HITS RESISTANCE AT KEY RETRACEMENT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DAX AND DOW BOUNCE AS EU SUMMIT WINDS DOWN... Link for todays video. European stocks were higher on Friday as the EU summit winds down. Success or failure depends on one definitions and expectations. Regardless of the outcome, stocks in the US and Europe moved higher Friday. Chart 1 shows...
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Brent Oil ETF Traces out Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Brent Crude ETF (BNO) hit resistance from the summer highs and formed a small Head-and-Shoulders pattern over the last two months. Neckline support is set at 73, a break of which would confirm the pattern. The alternative pattern is a Symmetrical Triangle and a break above the right shoulder...
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November Gaps and 50-day Lines Hold the Key
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is not much change in the indicator summary. I upgraded the NYSE AD Line because this chart looks just like the charts for the Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines. The Nasdaq AD Line remains bearish so the AD Lines as a whole are neutral. Basically, the NYSE AD...
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SPY Breaks Short-Term Support as TLT Breaks Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The negotiation marathon continues in Brussels. The 27-nation block fell apart as the UK and Hungary opted out of the current deal. Eurocrats are, however, making progress with the remaining 17 plus 6 or so. Nobody really expected an earth shattering agreement that would completely solve the problem. There will...
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Finance Sector Leads Market Lower
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Once again, it is the finance sector feeling the heat from across the pond. This screenshot from the market summary page shows the nine sectors, and all are in the red. In afternoon trading on Thursday, XLF is the only one with a loss greater than 3%. Obviously, the banks...
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GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES REMAIN HOSTAGE TO WEAK EURO -- FALLING BOND YIELDS WEIGH ON STOCKS -- A LOT OF 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING TESTED -- RECENT DRUG BREAKOUTS INCLUDE BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB AND LILLY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FALLING EURO WEIGHS ON STOCKS AND COMMODITIES ... The most important market of the day remains the Euro. That's because the European currency has become the proxy for how things are going in Europe. Unfortunately, the chart picture isn't that encouraging. Chart 1 shows the Euro trading...
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Stocks Consolidate as World Waits on Europe
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Today is the day - or rather two days. The European Central Bank (ECB) will make its policy statement and the 2-day EU summit starts. There are plenty of good reads and opinions regarding the EU situation. At the end of the day it boils down to probabilities and realities....
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Charts of Interest: ABB, ABT, ECA, HPQ, XRAY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ABB Consolidates after Breakout Surge.
ECA Bounces off Support for Potential Double Bottom.
XRAY Forms Bullish Pennant.
Plus ABT and HPQ.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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Broadcom Forms Bullish Engulfing on Good Volume
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Broadcom (BRCM) came across the bullish engulfing scan on Wednesday. After becoming oversold with a sharp decline in November, the stock firmed the last two weeks and formed a bullish engulfing on Wednesday. This white candlestick completely engulfed the prior black candlestick. Volume was also above average. Follow through above...
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DIA AND IWM STALL AFTER BIG MOVES -- REVIEWING DIFFERENT HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS -- QQQ TRACES OUT INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN -- RETAIL HOLDRS HITS 52-WEEK HIGH WITH STRONG SCTR -- WAL-MART AND HOME DEPOT POWER RTH HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DIA AND IWM STALL AFTER BIG MOVES... Link for todays video. The stock market appears to be holding its breadth as the European summit and European Central Bank (ECB) policy statement loom later this week. The late November surges are holding, but resistance levels are coming into play. The Dow...
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SPY Holds Uptrend, TLT Breaks Support and UUP Consolidates
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market held its breadth yesterday as the major index ETFs were barely changed the entire day. No change in the short-term uptrend means the short-term uptrend remains in play. According to the financial press, stocks are waiting for clues from Europe, which will start to flow on Thursday....
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Charts of Interest: AGU, ALTR, AMCC, JCOM, MAS, SHAW
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AGU Consolidates after Island Reversal.
MAS Challenges Flag Resistance.
SHAW Forms Small Flag after Breakout.
Plus ALTR, AMCC, JCOM
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need...
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Stocks Hold Short-Term Uptrends as Gold Weakens
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
This could be the week that breaks the bear's back or triggers a sharp reversal at resistance. While US ties to Europe are relatively small as a percentage of GDP, Europe's influence on the stock market and Dollar has been relatively large. Today's headlines...
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Home Construction iShares Leads with a Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) is one of the strongest industry group ETFs in the market right now. The chart below shows ITB breaking above its mid-November high with a surge the last few days. In the indicator window, the Price Relative confirms relative strength with a move to its...
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GOLD MOVES LOWER DESPITE STRENGTH IN STOCKS -- TREASURIES FALL AS RISK-ON TRADE TAKES HOLD -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS SLOWLY STRENGTHEN -- NASDAQ NET NEW HIGHS ARE SLOW TO IMPROVE -- P&F DOUBLE TOP BREAKOUT VERSUS DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD MOVES LOWER DESPITE STRENGTH IN STOCKS... Link for todays video. For whatever reason, stocks and gold have been positively correlated since late September. It is a strange pairing, but chart 1 confirms this relationship. The first indicator window shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) in red and the S&...
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SPY Surges over 7% and GLD Follows
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
That was one heck of a rally last week. SPY and QQQ surged over 7% and IWM was up over 10%. Was last week's surge an August-September surge or an October surge? A 7% surge in SPY compares to the beginning of October, which preceded a huge advance....
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AVERAGE TRUE RANGE COMPARISON SHOWS STOCKCHARTS IS ABOVE AVERAGE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
First off I wanted to make sure you knew that our Holiday Special is now underway! Long time members will tell you that if you are a StockCharts fan, the best time to join or renew is during our Holiday Sale Special. If you renew right now...
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"SCOOTERS" INVADE STOCKCHARTS!
ANNOUNCING SCTRs, AN IMPORTANT NEW TOOL FOR CHART WATCHERS - Stock ranking systems are nothing new. Investors Business Daily has had their well-known RS Rank system in place for years. Today, we are announcing our own stock ranking system called the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) - "Scooters" for...
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STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE - EURO DROP ON FRIDAY MAY EXPLAIN WHY - COMMODITIES BOUNCE REMAINS BELOW RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE... This past week's impressive stock rally ran into some profit-taking on Friday just shy of 200-day moving averages. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing near the their daily lows after nearing that important...
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DOLLAR STARTING DOUBLE TOP?
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The US Dollar Index appears to be setting up for a medium-term double top. This week it broke down through a short-term rising trend line drawn from the October low after reaching a level equal to the October top. The PMO made a lower top, creating a negative divergence.
The...
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SILVER POISED TO OUTPERFORM AGAIN
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
Last week, the world's stock markets cheered the coordinated central bank efforts to supply dollar liquidity to the world banking system via lower than market rates. This clearly resulted in a "risk-on" trade across the board, and we expect more to follow in the weeks ahead...
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DEFENSIVE SECTORS HITTING RESISTANCE BUT REMAIN RELATIVE LEADERS
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
With one week left to go, the S&P 500 was on the verge of its worst November in the last sixty years. Then the Fed and other central bankers came to the rescue of global markets last week and everything was just peachy again (sarcasm intended). November turned...
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QQQ Forms Island Reversal with Big Move
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
While gaps are not what they used to be, there were a few island reversals on the charts this week. The chart below shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with a large island reversal over the last three weeks. A bullish island reversal forms with a gap down, a consolidation...
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STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EURO DROP ON FRIDAY MAY EXPLAIN WHY -- COMMODITIES BOUNCE REMAINS BELOW RESISTANCE -- 70% OF NYSE STOCKS ARE BACK ABOVE 50-DAY LINES -- BOND YIELDS DON'T KEEP PACE WITH STOCK RALLY -- WATCH EUROPEAN BONDS FOR CLUES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE... This past week's impressive stock rally ran into some profit-taking on Friday just shy of 200-day moving averages. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Indexex closing near their daily lows after nearing that important...
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Market Surge Turns Indicator Summary Positive
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With this week's big move, the indicator summary flipped from negative to positive. There are clearly some judgment calls at work here. It really boils down to accepting this week's surge as the real deal. The alternative is that it was just one heck of a...
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A Double Island Reversal for the Finance SPDR
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a gap up on Monday and another on Wednesday, the Finance SPDR (XLF) formed two island reversals over the last three weeks. The first island formed on Friday-Monday (red circle). The second island formed from 21 to 29 November (blue oval). Notice the gaps on either side of these...
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S&P 500 ETF BREAKS RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- TARZAN MARKET CONTINUES WITH WIDE SWINGS -- ABC CORRECTION TARGETS MOVE TO SUMMER HIGHS -- PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND FOURTH YEAR CYCLE ARE BULLISH -- SIX-MONTH CYCLE TURNED BULLISH IN NOVEMBER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 ETF BREAKS RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with a Raff Regression Channel defining the November downswing. I showed this chart with a falling flag on Wednesday and labeled last weeks dip below 118...
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SPY and GLD Consolidate after Big Moves as TLT Hits Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
This market is just itching to continue higher. As I write, the Dow futures are of over 100 points. Hints of a European deal are in the air, the US economic numbers have been pretty good and central banks are printing money. What more could a stock market want? Even...
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Watson Pharma Forms Monster Bearish Engulfing Patterm
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though the market moved sharply higher on Wednesday, Watson Pharma could not hold its early gain and closed weak. Wednesday's black/filled candlestick completely engulfed the prior white/hollow candlestick to form a bearish engulfing. Also notice that volume surged. You can read more on candlesticks in...
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STAPLES SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- STAPLE LEADERS INCLUDE COSTCO, SARA LEE, AND TYSON -- HEALTHCARE LEADERS INCLUDE MEDTRONIC AND QUEST DIAGNOSTICS -- PFIZER CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- ABBOTT LABS NEARS RECORD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR HITS RECORD HIGH ... Despite the renewed optimism arising from yesterday's strong market rally, defensive stocks are still showing relative strength and strong chart action. The best performers are consumer staples. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (XLP) trading at a new record high....
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IWM Surges over 10% in Three Days as Treasuries Correct
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Coordinated action from five central banks sparked a massive rally in the finance sector (+6.17%) that extended to the rest of the market. All sectors were up. Seven of nine were up more than 3%. Utilities and consumer staples were up less than 3%. The materials, energy, finance and...
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Charts of Interest: AMZN, BBY, FDX, LOW, LUV, RL, WY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
BBY Forms Dark Cloud at Key Retracement.
FDX Breaks Flag Resistance.
RL Traces out Bear Wedge.
Plus AMZN, LOW, LUV, WY
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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JP Morgan Surges off Support with Gap
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
As one of the big money-center banks, JP Morgan (JPM) clearly benefited from the coordinated central bank action on Wednesday. The chart below shows JPM bouncing off support with a big gap on big volume. JPM closed near the high of the day. The gap is bullish as long as...
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FINANCE SECTOR SOARS ON CENTRAL BANK ACTION -- REGIONAL BANKS OUTPERFORMING BIG BANKS -- S&P 500 ETF SURGES ABOVE BROKEN SUPPORT -- QQQ CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS SURGES ABOVE BROKEN SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCE SECTOR SOARS ON CENTRAL BANK ACTION... Link for todays video. Stocks soared on Wednesday as five central banks lowered interest rates on dollar swaps. China also cut its reserve requirement for banks. A dollar swap is basically an emergency dollar loan to foreign banks. The European debt crisis created...
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