Guess what? Reports indicate that the Euro-zone bailout fund is smaller than EU finance ministers once thought. There is also a "secret" report suggesting that Italy is on the verge of blowing up the Euro zone. Yes, the rumors continue to fly. These latest rumors are putting a... READ MORE
The Airline ETF (FAA) and Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) were moving in the same direction from July to mid October, but went their separate was in late October. Spot Light Crude surged above 100 in November as the Airline ETF tested its early October low. Airlines are clearly not happy... READ MORE
Stocks opened strong and finished strong with a broad advance on Monday. While it is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend, there is room for further upside before resistance from broken support levels comes into play. SPY gapped up to form an island reversal over the last... READ MORE
DDS Forms Pennant after Sharp Decline. LH Challenges Flag Resistance. SUN Gaps above Wedge Resistance. Plus AZO and TGT. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
The indicator window shows the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) peaking in mid October (blue) and moving lower the last six weeks, while the US Oil Fund (USO) continued moving higher (red). Something needs to give here. Notice that UGA formed a large descending triangle the last 5-6 months and a... READ MORE
BROKEN SUPPORT TURNS FIRST RESISTANCE FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Stocks moved sharply higher in early trading as rumors swirled that EU leaders were poised to deliver another rescue package. Recent history shows us that speculating on prospective deals or rumors is a lesson in futility. We can be... READ MORE
Stock futures are trading sharply higher on news (rumors) of an Italian bailout. Also note that it is a big week on the economic front. See the listing of economic reports further down in this commentary. Market moving rumors and innuendo are all part of the game these days. Traders... READ MORE
RISING DOLLAR PUSHED GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES LOWER... Stocks and commodities fell together this week. That isn't surprising since both asset classes have been positively correlated all year. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the week at a two-month low and well below both moving... READ MORE
Wal-Mart (WMT) remains in an uptrend overall, but may be poised for a correction as Black Friday comes and goes. The stock declined sharply in mid November and then consolidated the last 6-7 days. Watch for a break from this consolidation to trigger the next signal. Click this chart for... READ MORE
TREASURIES AND DOLLAR LEAD SAFE-HAVEN TRADE... Link for todays video. November is turning out to be as risk-off as October was risk-on. Stocks, the Euro and oil surged in October as the financial markets embraced risk. Confidence started to waver at the end of October and turned completely risk-adverse the... READ MORE
So, how significant is the Dow's recent loss? If you understand the power of P&F charting, you'll get your answer from this chart: For those that are new to P&F charts, remember that they automatically filter out insignificant price moves. This is... READ MORE
After forming a rising wedge in October, the German DAX reversed in the key retracement zone and broke support with a sharp decline below 5700 the last few days. These are clearly bearish developments. Broken support in the 5800 area turns first resistance, which is confirmed by the trendline extending... READ MORE
Monday's sharp decline was enough to trigger a slew of downgrades in the indicator summary. I noted on Friday that the indicator was already looking vulnerable and it would not take much to tilt the balance back to the bears. Monday's big decline marked the fifth... READ MORE
The stock market can fall simply from a lack of buying pressure. In other words, it does not always take an increase in selling pressure to produce a decline. It is pretty easy to come up with reasons not to buy. The major index ETFs broke support levels with sharp... READ MORE
There have been few hiding places over the last five trading days. The major indices are down sharply and all sectors are also down. As the Sector Market Carpet shows, stocks in the utilities and consumer staples sectors were down the least, while technology and energy stocks were down the... READ MORE
50-DAY LINES REMAIN BELOW 200-DAY... One of the advantages of using moving averages is that they simplify the study of market trends. They tell us the current trend of the market and what needs to happen to reverse that trend. A comparison of 50- and 200-day moving averages is a... READ MORE
With the major index ETFs down 5-6% in the last six trading days, the market is short-term oversold and this could pave the way for a consolidation or oversold bounce. Trading could also get real tricky as volume dries up for the Thanksgiving holiday and the potential news flow rattles... READ MORE
NVDA Buck the Market with Big Surge. URBN Firms with Falling Wedge. WDC Forms Harami with two Inside Days. Plus ALTR, IR and M. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
The CandleGlance chart for the 30 Dow stocks provides snapshot of the current day's action. As of 12:30ET on Monday, all 30 components were down with most down over 2%. This is clearly a broad-based decline that is affecting all sectors. The screenshot below shows the four... READ MORE
S&P 500 ETFS BREAK SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) both broke support with sharp declines early Monday. SPY is based on the traditional S&P 500, which... READ MORE
The risk-off trade remains the flavor of the month. Stocks broke down last week as the Dollar and Treasuries moved to their highest levels for November. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke triangle support with a sharp decline on Wednesday-Thursday and then consolidated on Friday with a pennant... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! We have a jammed-packed edition of ChartWatchers for you this week. With the holiday season approaching fast (too fast if you ask me!) we're announcing several great Store specials that I urge you to look into to. Click here for more details (or just skip... READ MORE
SEND SOMEONE THE GIFT OF CHARTING WITH THE STOCKCHARTS HOLIDAY GIFT PACK! - We've bundled 6 months of our Extra service with one of John Murphy's best books, "The Visual Investor" and our exclusive 3-disc DVD set from this year's ChartCon conference.... READ MORE
I'm going to focus on some longer term indicators today. And, right now, the ones I'm looking at still warrant a lot of caution. Chart 1, for example, shows the % NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average ($NYA200R). Generally speaking, the line has to be... READ MORE
Over the past three months, we've seen the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures ($WTIC) rise from low of $75/barrel to a high of $102/barrel, which is a rather large move in a very short period of time in what many consider to be a modest... READ MORE
On Thursday the S&P 500 broke down from a triangle formation, which is a kind of continuation pattern. Continuation patterns are so named because, when the pattern ends, prices are normally expected to continue in the direction they were trending before the continuation pattern (consolidation) began. In this... READ MORE
For an options expiration week, volume was quite light. Any time volume is light, the threat of market manipulation grows. As we headed into last week, max pain suggested a potential 2.5%-3.5% move lower in equity prices, depending on the index. With hindsight now, we see the... READ MORE
A number of bearish developments have emerged on the weekly chart for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). This weekly chart extends two and a half years to cover the long-term situation. First, the ETF broke support with a sharp decline in August and then exceeded the July 2009 trendline. Second,... READ MORE
After a sharp decline and gap down, Procter & Gamble (PG) moved into a tight trading range the last three weeks. The pink lines show a pennant or small triangle taking shape. The blue lines show Bollinger Bands (10,2) narrowing as well. A break below the lower band would... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ETF TURNS BACK AT KEY RETRACEMENT... Link for todays video. If the stock market were to decline 20% over the next six months, chartists would no doubt be able to look back and identify the bearish signals that led to this decline. This is called hindsight. The key,... READ MORE
Even though there is no change in the indicator summary, it would not take much to tilt the balance back to the bears. With this week's sharp decline, the major index ETFs are on the verge of support breaks that would question the October breakouts. Support breaks in... READ MORE
The risk-off trade took center stage on Thursday. Treasuries and the Dollar were higher, while stocks, commodities and the Euro were lower. Gold followed the stock market again. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke triangle support with a sharp decline over the last two days. After a sharp... READ MORE
The Market Carpet is a sea of red on Thursday with the technology and finance sectors leading the way lower. Notice the numbers in the top box of each sector. The average tech stock is down 2.8% and the average finance stock is down 2.2% (just before the... READ MORE
COMMODITIES FALL HARD AS WELL ... Stocks and commodities both fell pretty hard today all around the world. Chart 1 shows the Commodities Tracking Fund (DBC) falling more than 2% to end back below its 50-day average. All commodity groups fell. The day's worst drop was seen in silver.... READ MORE
NYSE % ABOVE 200 MA STILL IN BEAR MARKET... I'm going to focus on some longer term indicators today. And, right now, the ones I'm looking at still warrant a lot of caution. Chart 1, for example, shows the % NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average... READ MORE
With the US Dollar Fund (UUP) hitting its highest level of the month and the 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) on the verge of a breakout, it is little wonder stocks finally succumbed to some selling pressure. Also note that $LIBOR continues to rise and the Finance SPDR (XLF) continues... READ MORE
AMZN Forms Rising Wedge in Gap Zone. The Triangle Noose Tightens for CTAS. SYMC Consolidates after Sharp Decline. Plus ADP, INTU, JDSU, MON This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
The Technology SPDR (XLK) is hitting resistance from the late October high with a Hanging Man last week and a Harami this week. Both candlesticks are bearish reversal patterns. The Hanging Man was confirmed with a gap down and long black candlestick, but the ETF quickly bounced back above 26.... READ MORE
IWM CHALLENGES PENNANT TRENDLINE... Link for todays video. Stocks were mixed most of Wednesday, but small-caps were showing some relative strength with modest gains. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) breaking resistance in late October and then consolidating the last few weeks. There are reasons to expect resistance... READ MORE
Even though the Euro and Treasuries surged off support over the last two days, stocks are holding up and oil remains near $100. It is a paradox and something needs to give here. Strength in Treasuries and the Dollar is tied to the risk-off trade, while strength in stocks and... READ MORE