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FRENCH AND GERMAN STOCKS SUCCUMB TO HEAVY SELLING IN SPAIN AND ITALY -- GERMAN DAX GAPS LOWER AND BREAKS 50-DAY LINE -- IT'S IMPORTANT THAT THE DAX STAY ABOVE ITS JUNE LOW -- S&P 500 RETESTS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- GOLD AND TREASURIES ATTRACT SAFE HAVEN BUYING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPAIN AND ITALY PULL REST OF EUROPE LOWER... European debt problems have spread to Spain and Italy which are pulling the rest of Europe (and global stocks) lower today. The four lines in Chart 1 the two of the day's weakest European stock markets (Italy and Spain) starting...
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12 month Slope Indicator remains Positive for S&P 500
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Taking a big step back to look at the big picture, the 12-month Slope indicator for the S&P 500 turned positive in September 2009 and remains positive. While this indicator does not pick exact tops or bottoms, it gives us a good idea of the long-term trend. Note...
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SPAIN AND ITALY LEAD EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER -- EURO TUMBLE PUSHES US DOLLAR SHARPLY HIGHER -- MOST COMMODITIES DROP -- GOLD AND TREASURIES RALLY ON SAFE HAVEN STATUS -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 50-DAY LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ITALY AND SPAIN PULL EUROPE LOWER... Heavy selling in Europe is pulling down global stock markets around the world. Two of the biggest losers in Europe are Italy and Spain. Both markets are down 6% and 4% respectively. And both are suffering chart damage. Chart 1 shows Italy iShares (EWI)...
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10-year Treasury Yield Backs off Long-term Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) remains in a long-term downtrend that is dominated by a falling channel. The upper trendline has been touched at least four times since the mid 90s. More recently, the 10-year Treasury Yield hit resistance around 48.50 at least three times since May 2008. A...
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A Massive Triangle Takes Shape for the Home Construction iShares
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) has gone nowhere since August 2009. After first crossing back above 12.75 in early August 2009, the ETF has meandered above/below this level the last 23 months. On the right half of the range, a large Symmetrical Triangle is taking shape. A break...
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STOCKS SOAR AS DOLLAR WEAKENS -- COMMODITY ETF CLEARS 50-DAY LINE -- SO DOES ENERGY ETF AS ENERGY SHARES CLEAR RESISTANCE -- TRANSPORTS, RETAILERS, AND REITS HIT NEW HIGHS -- S&P 500 CLEARS RESISTANCE AND MAY TEST SPRING HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
US DOLLAR CLOSES LOWER... After a higher open today, the U.S. Dollar Index (UUP) ended the day in the red as shown in Chart 1. The UUP continues to fluctuate in a bearish consolidation pattern. At the same time, the Euro did just the opposite. Chart 2 shows the...
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UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN JAPANESE STOCKS ADDS TO BULLISH ENTHUSIASM FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- A WEAKER YEN AND STRONGER AUSSIE DOLLAR IS ALSO A GOOD SIGN FOR RISKIER ASSETS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JAPAN ISHARES HIT FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... Global stocks and commodities are continuing the strong rally that started last week. One of the reasons being given for today's U.S. stock rally is better employment news and strong retail sales. The fact that foreign stocks were already rallying before release...
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GOLD AND SILVER START TO BOUNCE ALONG WITH THEIR RELATED SHARES -- GLD CLEARS 50-DAY LINE -- THREE GOLD LEADERS ARE GOLDCORP, YAMANA, AND KINROSS GOLD -- GOLD MINERS BULLISH PERCENT INDEX IS OVERSOLD BUT HAS YET TO TURN UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD ETF CLEARS 50-DAY LINE; SILVER TRYING TO BOTTOM... Precious metals have caught a bid over the last two days after lagging behind everything else over the last two months. The good news is that both gold and silver are finding chart support near previous lows, which is often the...
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Spanish IBEX Index Hits Major Resistance Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Spain Bolsa de Madrid IBEX 35 Index ($IBEX) hit a major resistance zone around 11000. Notice that the index has been turned back near this level since July 2010 (one year). A breakout is needed to revive the bulls here and build confidence in Europe. RSI confirms resistance as...
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Dow Industrials Remains Well below 2007 High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows the 23-day SMA for the Dow Industrials. There are around 23 trading days per month and this represents a rolling monthly average. It also smooths daily volatility. The March 2009 low was around 10% below the March 2003 low and the July 2011 high was around...
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TA 101 RETURNS (FINALLY!) - PART 17
Many months ago, we began a series of articles that we called "TA 101." The articles covered the basics of stock charting. The most recent article in the series was published in January of 2010. (If you have time on this long holiday weekend, I strongly urge you...
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QUESTION ABOUT DISTRIBUTIONS AND THE TREND MODEL
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
QUESTION: Carl, is it okay to use the Trend Model on bond fund NAV's to manage risk, or is it inappropriate because you can't factor in monthly payouts? I own PTSAX, Bill Gross' total return investor class bond fund, and it looks like the 20-EMA...
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FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
It was a good week for commodities and an even better week for stocks. But it all started with the dollar. We explained earlier in the week that the Dollar Index (UUP) appeared to be in a bearish consolidation pattern within a major downtrend. That view favored a lower greenback...
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DON'T GOT TO WAR WITH WALL STREET WITH A WATER PISTOL
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I was certainly looking for a bounce last week, but if I'm being honest, I wasn't looking for THAT kind of bounce. Our major indices all gained over 5% in just one week. That's not a bad return for a YEAR!!!
There were definitely...
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STOCK INDEXES CLOSE WELL ABOVE 50-DAY LINES CONFIRMING START OF SUMMER RALLY -- RAILS AND DISCRETIONARY STOCKS HIT NEW 2011 HIGHS -- BOND PRICES DROP AS YIELDS CLIMB -- JUNK BONDS, HOWEVER, FOLLOW STOCKS HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES... It was a good week for commodities and an even better week for stocks. But it all started with the dollar. We explained earlier in the week that the Dollar Index (UUP) appeared to be in a bearish consolidation pattern within a major downtrend. That view...
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Dollar and S&P 500 Continue Negative Correlation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Dollar and the S&P 500 have been negatively correlated since April 2010. The chart below shows three big swings with the Dollar and S&P 500 moving in opposite directions. After a long advance in stocks and decline in the Dollar, stocks peaked and the Dollar...
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GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- COPPER TURNS UP AS FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS BASIC MATERIAL STOCKS -- MOVING AVERAGE BREADTH INDICATORS TRIGGER BUY SIGNAL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL STOCKS TAKE OUT 50-DAY AVERAGES... My Tuesday message focused on the ability of global stock indexes to bounce off their 200-day averages (like the S&P 500) or to climb back above them (like foreign stocks). Today's focus is on the ability of global stocks to...
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XLF Finds Support in Middle of a Big Consolidation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Finance SPDR (XLF) has been on a road to nowhere for almost two years now. After first moving above 15 in September 2009, the ETF embarked on a long trading range with support near 13 and resistance near 17. XLF has crossed the mid point (15) at least 10...
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Shanghai Composite Forms Large Inverse Head-and-Shoulders
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) has been drifting lower since July 2009, with a decline that looks like an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern. The neckline is sloping down, which affirms the current downtrend. A break above the neckline and the 2011 high is needed to complete the pattern and reverse the two...
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Programming Note: Upcoming Vacation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It is family vacation time. This is the pause that refreshes. I will be taking a two week vacation starting Friday, July 1st. The next updates will be on Monday, July 18th. Have a happy 4th....
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AD Volume Lines Surge as Consumer Discretionary Leads
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It's a choppy time for the indicator summary as the total flipped from -2 to +2 this week as the AD Volume Lines and Sector Performance were upgraded. The AD Volume Lines broke their March lows two weeks ago, but recovered with a strong breadth surge this week....
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Chart of Interest: ANF, AKAM, AKS, CCI, INTC, NTAP
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ANF Stalls at Trendline Support.
AKS Gaps up from Support.
INTC shows Relative weakness the Last Two Weeks.
Plus AKAM, CCI, NTAP.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)...
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SPY Follows Through with Breakout as IWM Leads Overall
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains on Wednesday with the S&P 500 ETF taking the lead. The day's gain was relatively modest (+.86%), but it was enough to comfortably clear resistance extending back to June 6th. I was impressed with Wednesday's price action in the Finance...
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Aussie Dollar Breaks Wedge Trendline
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With commodities on the rebound this week, the Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) surged over the last two days and broke the upper trendline of a falling wedge. The Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and S. African Rand are considered commodity currencies because their economies are dependent on raw...
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FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES MID JUNE HIGHS -- US BANCORP AND HUNTINGTON BOUNCE OFF RETRACECMENT ZONES -- BASE METALS ETF BREAKS FLAG RESISTANCE -- SILVER BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT ZONE -- GOLD AND DOLLAR ETFS FORM TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATIONS -- TWO WEEK VACATION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES MID JUNE HIGHS... Finance was one of the leading sectors on Wednesday as the Finance SPDR (XLF) surged towards short-term resistance. Chart 1 shows XLF hitting support near broken resistance and the 61.8% retracement line throughout June. This support combination makes the area a good place...
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SPY Closes above mid June High and GLD Gets Oversold
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Small-caps and large-techs continue to lead the rebound off the March lows. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) got into the action yesterday with a break above its mid June highs and the highest close since June 3rd. SPY is late to the breakout party, but better late than...
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BEARISH DOLLAR TREND IS HELPING GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES BOUNCE OFF THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- TREASURY PRICES ARE BACKING OFF SHARPLY FROM OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- IT'S TIME FOR SUMMER RALLY WHICH ARGUES FOR A STRONGER JULY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR WEAKENS IN BEARISH CONSOLIDATION PATTERN... The U.S. Dollar Index continues to move sideways in what appears to be a bearish consolidation pattern. Chart 1 shows the June rally in the DB Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) falling well short of its May peak. That increases the odds that the...
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CIT Group Forms Bullish Engulfing Pattern
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a weak open and strong close in the stock market, quite a few stocks made the Bullish Engulfing and Piercing Pattern scans. In particular, CIT Group (CIT) formed a bullish engulfing within a triangle pattern. A follow through breakout would confirm this bullish candlestick reversal.
Click this image for...
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Chart of Interest: AMGN, ALTR, EMC, GILD, ISRG, NYT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AMGN Forms Bullish Engulfing Pattern.
EMC Bounces off Support with Good Volume.
NYT Outperforms the S&P 500.
Plus ALTR, GILD, ISRG
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or...
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SPY Continues to Lag IWM and QQQ
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) exceeded their mid June highs over the last few days, but the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains a clear laggard as it failed to exceed its corresponding high. On the 60-minute chart, SPY remains with the gap down...
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Intrepid Potash Traces out Volatile Triangle
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Intrepid Potash (IPI) formed a volatile triangle within a downtrend. The trendline extending down from the February high and the upper trendline of the triangle converge to mark resistance. There could very well be a failure here. Alternatively, watch this level for a breakout.
Click this image for a live...
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BIG TECHS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- SMALL-CAP ETF HOLDS SHORT-TERM BREAKOUT -- AMAZON, COMCAST AND MICROSOFT POWER QQQ -- SEMI HOLDRS FORMS INSIDE DAYS AT SUPPORT -- TEXAS INSTRUMENTS AND INTEL HOLD KEY TO SMH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BIG TECHS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video. For the third time in five sessions, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) formed an exceptionally large white candlestick. A candlestick is white (hollow) when the close is above the open or black (filled) when the close is below the open. The...
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SPY Fails at Reistance as GLD Breaks Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Trading was quite volatile last week as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) failed to hold Tuesday's gap and finished the week with a small loss. SPY gapped up and closed above 129 on Tuesday, stalled on Wednesday and then gapped down on Thursday. Despite this sharp...
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FINANCE SECTOR LEADS THE MARKET LOWER -- MATERIALS SPDR FIRMS AT SUPPORT -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR TESTS DOUBLE TOP SUPPORT -- ENERGY SPDR FALLS WITHIN WEDGE -- MARKING KEY RESISTANCE FOR THE DOLLAR BULLISH ETF -- 13-WEEK TBILL YIELD FALLS TO 2008 LEVELS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCE SECTOR LEADS THE MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. With a little pop-and-drop action this week, three key sector ETFs established clear resistance levels chartists can watch to define a follow through. One day wonder-rallies and oversold bounces can happen with short covering and bottom picking. Follow through to...
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AD Volume Lines Rebound as Index ETFs Hold Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The major index ETFs are holding their March lows and there is no change in the indicator summary. The AD Volume Lines are also testing support from the March lows. In fact, both bounced sharply this week and are now back above their March lows. Even so, I will wait...
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SPY Battles Support as TLT Breaks Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The battle for support from the March lows continues to rage. Stocks opened sharply lower on Thursday, remained weak and then mounted a strong afternoon rally. This rebound pushed QQQ and IWM into positive territory by the close and cut most of the losses in SPY. On the 60-minute chart,...
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Big Techs Turn Green with Long White Candlestick
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a weak open and strong close, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) formed a long white candlestick that is just as long as Tuesday's candlestick. Volume surged to its highest level since mid March. The lows of these two candlesticks now mark an important short-term support level.
Click...
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GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES FALL TOGETHER AS DOLLAR RISES -- OIL LEADS COMMODITY DECLINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING DOLLAR HURTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES... A surge in the U.S. Dollar is contributing to heavy selling of global stocks and commodities. Chart 1 shows the DB Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) gapping more than 1% higher today and nearing a test of its mid-June peak. Chart 2 shows the...
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Stocks Start Backing and Filling for First Test
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains early Wednesday, but selling pressure hit the market in the afternoon and the major index ETFs closed weak. Some backing and filling can be expected after a sharp surge, such as that seen on Tuesday. At this point, it is important that the first support zones...
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Chart of Interest: BSX, CAKE, IPG, ITUB, KGC, PLCE
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
CAKE Forms Triangle after Trendline Break. KGV Breaks Bull Flag Trendline. PLCE Forms Bear Flag within Downtrend. Plus BSX, IPG, ITUB.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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