Stocks remain strong. SPY is up 5.68% the last 10 days. A small indecisive candlestick formed after a gap up on the open. Even though potential resistance from the February high is close and stocks are short-term overbought, there is simply no let up in buying pressure. The turnaround... READ MORE
ABX Forms Bull Flag. AEO Surges to Resistance. FLEX Flexes its Muscles. Plus AMRK, BSX, LLY and STT. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
The India Sensex Index ($BSE) is celebrating India's semi-final win in the Cricket World Cup with a breakout over the last few days. Actually, the breakout occurred before the win. Stocks tend to lead major sporting events by a few days (joke). Click this image for a live... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ETF EXCEEDS FEBRUARY HIGH... Link for todays video. Small-caps continue to show relative strength as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) became the first major index ETF to break its February high. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) is next in line as it trades near its February high. The... READ MORE
"Don't fight the Tape" is an old Wall Street adage. It is as true today as it was when Jesse Livermore traded in the bucket shops. First and foremost, the overall trend on the daily and weekly charts is up and has been up for some... READ MORE
SOUTH KOREA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER... Last week's upside breakout in emerging markets is still holding. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares (black line) having risen to a new three-month high. The strongest component in that group is Korea iShares (red line) which is nearing its February high.... READ MORE
On the P&F chart, the Russell 2000 ETF affirmed support around 77 with a sharp reversal the last two weeks. This reversal was strong enough to forge a Quadruple Top Breakout as the current X-Column broke above the equal highs of the prior three X-Columns. Click this image... READ MORE
BSX Forms Long Triangle. ENR Gaps Up off Support. FITB Consolidates near Support Zone. Plus HBI, IBOC, SLAB and TRMK. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
The medium-term trend has been up since early September and the short-term trend turned up again with last week's break above 130. After a 4.51% run the prior seven days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) became short-term overbought and is now showing signs of indecision.... READ MORE
BOND ETF TESTS NECKLINE BREAKOUT... Link for todays video. The 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) surged above neckline resistance in mid March, but pulled back as stocks rallied over the last several days. The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout remains in play as broken resistance turns into the first support level to... READ MORE
After surging above its October high, Garmin moved into a consolidation and volatility contracted. Notice how Bollinger Band Width moved below the January low and to its lowest level in months. This volatility contraction could foreshadow a volatility expansion. Watch support and resistance for the first direction clue. Click this... READ MORE
With a 4.51% run the last seven days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is short-term overbought and showing signs of indecision. Chartists do not need a momentum oscillator to figure out that SPY is short-term overbought. This 7-day rally is the strongest since the first week of... READ MORE
The year-to-date commodity PerfChart shows Silver and Oil as the big winners. Both are up more than 15%. Gold is also up, but barely as it finished 2010 near $1420. A surge over the last two weeks brought Copper back to its 2010 high. Click this image for a live... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video. Small-caps led the surge on Monday and are at it again on Friday with another show of relative strength. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surging over 35% from late August to late February. This move was pretty much... READ MORE
Even though the indicator summary turned negative last week, I still viewed the recent decline as a correction within a bigger uptrend. We have yet to see a major topping pattern evolve and the market was entitled to a correction after a big run from late August to February. With... READ MORE
It was small-caps powering the market higher on Monday and techs powering stocks higher on Thursday. Even though these two key groups are playing tag-team, the market is benefitting from strength in both groups this week. As a result, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above short-term resistance... READ MORE
GOLD CLOSES LOWER... My earlier message showed the Gold Trust (GLD) trading at a new record high. By day's end, however, both gold and silver experienced profit-taking. Chart 1 shows GLD closing lower on rising volume (silver did the same). Chart 2 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners... READ MORE
After a gap down and weak open on Wednesday, the stock bulls found their wind and pushed stocks higher. At the same time, the bond bulls lost their wind as the 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) moved sharply lower. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH... Gold prices are hitting a new record today as shown in Chart 1. That shouldn't come as a surprise to readers of our increasingly bullish commentaries on precious metals over the last month. The line above Chart 1 shows silver prices having already risen... READ MORE
The bulls simply refuse to give up. SPY opened lower with a gap below 129, but the bulls quickly entered the market and pushed stocks higher. SPY surged back to Monday's high, DIA exceeded Monday's high and tech stocks showed relative strength on Wednesday. With yesterday&... READ MORE
ABT Bounces off Key Retracement. ACI Challenges Resistance. MSFT Breaks Wedge Trendline. Plus ATVI, DELL, F, XLF, XRT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Even though the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) track quite well over the medium-term and long-term, daily candlestick action can be quite different. The S&P 500 is an index that prints a price seconds after the market open. More often than... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) held up quite well in March as broken resistance turned into support at 47.5 the last few weeks. After a surge in early February, a falling wedge evolved and the ETF established resistance at 49.10 this week. A move above this level would break... READ MORE
GOLD ETF SURGES TO RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With a surge above 140, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is challenging resistance from its March highs and the ETF is poised to hit a new all time high. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR advancing 3% the last six days. The... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY surged from ±125 to ±130 with two black candlesticks and a small white candlestick. There were three strong opens, but the ETF moved lower after the first two gaps (Thursday-Friday) and barely advanced after Monday's gap. As noted yesterday, this is uninspiring candlestick... READ MORE
Sometimes the 50-day SMA works like a charm for support/resistance and other times not. Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) appears to be in the former category. The stock formed a rising wedge in March, met resistance at the 50-day last week and turned lower the last four days. Click this image... READ MORE
RISING INFLATION PUSHES POUND HIGHER... The latest British CPI report came in much higher than expected and increased pressure for a British rate boost. That pushed the British Pound to the highest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than a year (Chart 1). The Euro may be next.... READ MORE
SPY surged over the last three days, but the last three candlesticks show hesitation that could foreshadow a test of last week's lows. Looking back at November, we can see a gap and then a test of the mid November lows with a pullback later that month. The... READ MORE
CCJ Trades 25% of Float. CL Surges off Gap Support. CRM Firms at Key Retracement. Plus DHI, F, NVDA, RHT and X ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD BOUNCE... Link for todays video. Stocks moved broadly higher on Monday with small-caps leading the way. The major index ETFs were up 1.5% or more on the day. All nine sector SPDRs moved higher with energy and materials leading the charge. Chart 1 shows the Russell... READ MORE
Intuit (INTU) surged on Friday with a nice gap on the highest volume of the month. With a higher low forming around 48, the overall uptrend remains in place. As they say on the London Tube: mind the gap. This gap is bullish as long as it holds. A move... READ MORE
Even though the indicator summary turned negative on Friday (minus 3) for the first time since September 3rd, the decline over the last four weeks is still considered a correction within a bigger uptrend. This 6% decline follows a 13.5% advance since late November and a 30% advance since... READ MORE
Traders continue to sell the U.S. Dollar. In yesterday's trading, the dollar fell to a 20-year low against the Japanese yen. Today, it's falling against everything else. More importantly, the greenback is breaking important support levels. Chart 1 shows the PS Bullish Dollar Index (UUP)... READ MORE
Over the past several weeks, we've seen the market leader Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) falter modestly given Middle East/North Africa and Japanese concerns. Commonsensically speaking, this would have been expected, but certainly on a longer-term basis RUT was ready to decline from a technical perspective... READ MORE
(This is an excerpt from Friday's blog for Decision Point subscribers.) My wife is something of an insomniac, so she listens to a lot of nighttime talk shows -- not the best cure for insomnia, I'll bet. Recently she told me about the comments of some... READ MORE
For the first time since August 2010, the bears are in control of the short-term action. I haven't lost sight of the intermediate- and long-term uptrends that are in place (which remain bullish), but I also am not going to ignore the clear breakdowns of the past few... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Talk about your "Wall of Worry"! These days there are tons of things to worry about. So are the bulls going to be able to keep climbing? Whenever I want to get a solid, high-level view of the overall market I turn to our trusty... READ MORE
With big declines on Wednesday, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) both became oversold and hit potential support zones. The first chart shows QQQQ hitting support around 54 after an 8+ percent decline the last few weeks. This decline pushed the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)... READ MORE
After falling off the cliff the last few weeks, the DJ Stoxx 50 Index hit support from a familiar retracement. The decline to around 2460 retraced 62% of the prior advance. There is also support in this area from the October-November lows. The European stock index bounced off support on... READ MORE
CURRENCY INTERVENTION PUSHES YEN SHARPLY LOWER... Link for todays video. For the first time since propping up the Euro in 2000, the G-7 intervened in the currency markets to push the Yen lower. So far it is working. The Yen surged because many Japanese companies are expected to repatriate money... READ MORE