The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) led the market this week with a new 52-week high on Friday. Not bad considering the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) suffered its biggest weekly loss since early August. Overall, the up trends for the major index ETFs remain in place as they recorded new 52-week... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the major index ETFs lower this week with a decline to its January lows. The ETF is testing support from these lows and showing relative weakness. Notice the Price Relative in the lower window. This indicator turned sharply lower this week and broke the... READ MORE
A LONG-TERM TRADING RANGE FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 in a trading range the last 10-12 years. With the surge over the last few months, the index moved above the midpoint of this 12 year range. Looking... READ MORE
For the first time in many weeks, two indicator groups were downgraded in the indicator summary. Relative weakness in the Technology ETF (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) caused me to downgrade offensive sector performance from bullish to neutral. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) are still holding... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY dipped below the lower trendline of the rising channel, but bounced to close back above the trendline. This channel covers the short-term uptrend. The medium-term uptrend is defined by bigger events, namely the break above the November high. This resistance break becomes the first support... READ MORE
The S&P 500 surged above 1296 and then quickly fell below 1278 to forge a high-pole warning on the P&F chart. Despite this warning, the index remains above a clear support level marked by three reaction lows at 1263. Notice how the three columns of O&... READ MORE
VIX STARTS TO BOUNCE ... Two Thursday's ago (January 6), I showed the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index having reached a potential support level at last spring's low near 15, and warned that a bounce off that level could cause a stock market pullback. That's because... READ MORE
Overall, SPY continues to move higher within a tight rising price channel. Obviously, this channel cannot hold forever. Wednesday's decline (-.98%) was the sharpest 1-day loss since late November, the 26th to be exact. This means we have just witnessed the most selling pressure in 37 trading... READ MORE
ECL bucks the trend with wedge breakout. KO forms bearish wedge. PNRA forms bearish pennant. Plus AZO, DRI, KMX, LLY, MHK and RHT. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD PULLBACK IN STOCKS... Link for todays video. The bigger trend remains up, but overbought stocks took a breather on Wednesday as profit taking took hold. Small-caps led the way lower with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) loosing twice as much as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and... READ MORE
While the Gold Trust SPDR (GLD) pulled back rather sharply in 2011, the Platinum ETN (PGM) held strong and recorded a new 52-week high this week. Platinum was lagging gold until from early August until late November. The PGM:GLD ratio bottomed at the end of November and moved sharply... READ MORE
The intermarket arena continues to heat up as the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) breaks resistance and the Gold SPDR (GLD) forms a bull wedge. As noted yesterday, the Euro broke support in early January, but this support break failed to hold and the ETF rallied all the way back to... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) has not seen a loss greater than 1/2% since November 30th, around six weeks ago. There have been plenty of gains greater than 1/2% and even a few losses, but no painful losses. Moreover, this remarkable streak shows no signs of ending as... READ MORE
There is no change in the stock market analysis. Both the medium-term (daily chart) and short-term (60-minute chart) trends are up with no signs of selling pressure. Focus may turn to the intermarket area as bond yields test support, the Euro challenges resistacne and trades at a multi-week low. The... READ MORE
AVP fails to hold breakout. GERN forms small ascending triangle. YHOO extends consolidation. Plus ERTS, HRB, SUSS. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
With two weeks underway, stocks are taking the lead and gold is taking the lag for 2011. Of the five inter-market related ETFs, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the US Dollar Fund (UUP) are up this year. The USO Oil Fund (USO), 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT)... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS RECORD 52-WEEK HIGH... Link for todays video. The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) remains one of the strongest industry group ETFs since September. Chart 1 shows SMH forming a pennant consolidation in late December and breaking resistance this week. Todays move forges a 52-week high for this key tech bell... READ MORE
The stock market appears to be on bullish auto-pilot. In fact, it seems that a bit of complacency may be setting in. While I remain concerned with excessively bullish sentiment, a bearish signal in the put-call ratio and overbought conditions, there is simply no evidence of selling pressure on the... READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, there is not change in the analysis of the daily or 60-minute charts. This December-January advance is looking awfully familiar. Looking back, we can see that SPY surged in early September, CCI became overbought and the ETF continued higher the next seven weeks. Looking at the current rally, we... READ MORE
With a tight trading range the last several weeks, the Bollinger Bands have significantly narrowed for Analog Devices (ADI) - and the squeeze is on. A close above the upper band would be short-term bullish, while a close below the lower band would be short-term bearish. Be careful. Sometimes the... READ MORE
WHERE CAN BOND HOLDERS GO... We wrote several messages during the fourth quarter about the breakdown in bond prices (and rise in bond yields). The fall in most bond categories was the result of a stronger economy and rising inflation expectations. That stronger environment is good for holders of stocks... READ MORE
This December-January advance is looking awfully familiar. Looking back, we can see that SPY surged in early September, CCI became overbought and the ETF continued higher the next seven weeks. Looking at the current rally, we can see that SPY surged in early December, CCI became overbought and the ETF... READ MORE
AMGN forms bull flag. BAX surges off support with good volume. ERTS firms within small wedge. Plus GILD, JWN, K. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
The Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) remains on of the top performing sectors in the market. Since breaking resistance in September, the ETF advanced with a series of consolidation breakout. With the surge over the last three days, the ETF broke flag/wedge resistance and scored a 52-week high today. Click... READ MORE
RISK-ON TRADE SURFACES AS EURO BOUNCES... Link for todays video. A successful auction of Portuguese bonds lifted banking shares in Europe and the US on Wednesday. The Euro moved higher as worry over European debt subsided. This confidence boost brought the risk-on trade to the forefront. Gold and bonds declined... READ MORE
There is no change in the SPY trends so I will add coverage of the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX), Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and Gold SPDR (GLD) today. Interest rates remain in an uptrend overall and the 10-year Treasury Yield has been consolidating since mid December. Support resides at 3.... READ MORE
Even though the market has been moving higher since mid December, Expeditors has been under pressure and shown relative weakness. It all started with a bearish engulfing in early December. The stock gapped up on the first trading day of 2011, but failed to hold the gap and declined the... READ MORE
There is no change in the analysis for the medium-term (daily chart) or short-term (60-minute chart). SPY remains in a medium-term uptrend as the ETF recorded a new 52-week high last week. SPY started the week strong with an open above 126, but then stalled the rest of the week.... READ MORE
ISRG challenges resistance. MMM bounces with long white candle. NEM hits channel support. Plus CHUX, GERN, NEM, THO This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
IWM BATTLES SHORT-TERM SUPPORT AS IT UNDERPERFORMS... Link for todays video. Trading remains relatively subdued as the major indices either grind higher or trade sideways. Chart 1 shows the small-cap dominated Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) testing short-term support at 78. The ETF is up over 30% since late August and... READ MORE
Oil is trading up over 1% early Monday, but the Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) is down over 1.5%. OIH seems to have some doubts regarding this pipeline related pop in crude. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
Short-term breadth indicators turned bullish in early December and remain bullish. These are the 10-day SMA for Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume for both the Nasdaq and NYSE. There are two breadth indicators for each major exchange. Breadth is bullish when all four break above +100 and breadth remains... READ MORE
Tuesday's message wrote about an overbought condition in stocks and commodities, and showed gold in particular starting to roll over to the downside. Although some have questioned the viability of the dollar/commodity link, my view is that it's alive and well. Intermarket relationships aren'... READ MORE
Happy New Year!!! The financial sector looks superb as we bring in a new year. I am of the opinion, at least based on current technicals, that 2011 will be a solid stock market year and financials will be a primary reason. I'm looking for solid quarterly earnings... READ MORE
As the 2011 trading year unfolds, it is rather clear that the consumer discretionary sector and retail in particular are showing a tendency towards declining rather than rallying with the overall broader market. This is change from the past 2-years, where the consumer discretionary names have out-performed rather than handily.... READ MORE
QUESTION FROM READER: I've been noticing some anomalous behavior in the NYSE Advance-Decline data and other indicators based on NYSE data that does not match up with other measures of breadth. I've read comments from other authors on numerous occasions that refer to the same problem... READ MORE
Even though 2011 has just begun, there are clear leaders and laggards among the nine sectors. In particular, the technology sector is getting off to a great start. The Sector PerfChart shows the nine sector SPDRs and the S&P 500. The black dotted line marks the performance for... READ MORE
It has been a wild ride in the bond market this week. Treasuries fell and yields surged as the ADP employment report showed strong job growth on Wednesday. This move was reversed on Friday as bonds surged and yields fell after a disappointing non-farm payroll report. Overall, the 10-year Treasury... READ MORE
PUT/CALL RATIO DOES A ANOTHER DOUBLE DIP... Link for todays video. Those who have spent a few springs in tornado alley know that there is a difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning. A tornado watch means conditions are ripe for a tornado, but a tornado does... READ MORE
The stock market may be overbought and sentiment may seem excessively bullish, but there is simply no sign of weakness on the price charts or with the indicators. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines both moved to new reaction highs this year. Net New Highs remain firmly positive and... READ MORE